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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 15, 2026

[ Saturday, February 14, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, February 16, 2026 ]

DAY 138 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2026 11:00:01 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.59°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.327
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 145

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.15 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 46
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -146

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-14 23:00:01FORECAST2026138-14629.08420.58824.8366100.246.156.39TF-2.916145.08446353.3304584447321.5531579651290.32726222598909162112124WETL
2026-02-14 19:00:01FORECAST2026138-14629.01220.58824.86100.246.156.39TF-2.988145.01246353.3304584447321.5531579651290.32423231062183162112124WETL
2026-02-14 15:00:01FORECAST2026138-14629.2122.35225.7816100.246.156.39TF-2.79145.2146353.3304584447321.5531579651290.33259194537196162112124WETL
2026-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2026138-14628.29222.20825.2561.22248322820900.246.156.39TF-3.708144.29246353.4686274585521.6402271162790.2945973680967162112124WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2026138-14628.61620.87624.74661.8119555331880.0992126520.3492126526.156.499212652TF-3.384145.61646353.834330846221.8711919243810.30777933941604162112124WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2026138-14629.3922.49625.94361.8858323055780.1153543930.3653543936.156.515354393TF-2.61147.3946353.880124740621.9001660559740.34026463251537162112124WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:01FORECAST2026138-14630.0221.77625.89861.60600747078900.736.156.88TT-1.98145.0246353.7066247238521.7904529652050.36762505834509162113126WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2026138-14631.35221.57826.46561.84018319141100.796.156.94TT-0.648147.35246353.8518293007221.8822619465720.42757169307906162113126WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:02FORECAST2026138-14632.34222.17227.25761.74634686054400.776.156.92TT0.342148.34246353.7936548825921.845465731440.47332307428719162113126WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026138-14631.35221.1126.23163.55759794644700.696.156.84TT-0.648146.35246354.9141057676422.5574880399030.42757169307906162113126WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:06FORECAST2026138-14630.54220.42625.48463.89016996184200.776.156.92TT-1.458145.54246355.1192772816122.6886309822490.39082275206043162113126WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026138-14631.02821.09226.0663.74492953035100.736.156.88TT-0.972148.02846355.0296963535522.6313429752390.41277749243199162113126WETL
2026-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026138-14631.65822.26226.9664.84656755611700.736.156.88TT-0.342147.65846355.7083365496723.0664646763420.44163850179893162113126WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2026138-14631.76622.62227.19464.7944452946900.716.156.86TT-0.234148.76646355.6762705410223.0458466541890.4466218342949162113126WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:05FORECAST2026138-14633.1723.41428.29264.8077507257500.736.156.88TT1.17151.1746355.6844565461723.0511095968680.51188619617169163113127.5WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:01FORECAST2026138-14631.74822.98227.36564.49425275956400.696.156.84TT-0.252150.74846355.491507171222.9271591173780.44579067150435162113126WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026138-14631.35221.7426.54664.48963425688700.716.156.86TT-0.648148.35246355.4886634612622.9253338890870.42757169307906162113126WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2026138-14630.48821.00225.74564.56985764120200.716.156.86TT-1.512146.48846355.5380539558522.9570415299590.3884032996893162113126WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2026138-14629.13820.324.71965.5046443804300.596.156.74TT-2.862134.13846356.1128254315823.3270439892060.32954216405166162113126WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2026138-14628.70621.84825.27765.19253124963500.516.156.66TT-3.294133.70646355.921068454123.2033953775970.31148645008168162113126WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026138-14628.61619.90424.2665.16552234097600.516.156.66TT-3.384132.61646355.9044674940523.1927005277360.30777933941604162113126WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2026138-14627.01420.01223.51366.4530880758720.141732360.731732366.156.88173236TT-4.986129.01446356.6946010520623.7034577399010.24531591417441161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:09FORECAST2026138-14627.5919.59823.59466.7455388404940.141732360.721732366.156.87173236TT-4.41133.5946356.8737079078223.8197279323130.26696714960728162113126WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026138-14627.98619.47223.72966.232172181450.1354331440.6554331446.156.805433144TT-4.014133.98646356.5592163612823.6156914109230.28239210809612162113126WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:08FORECAST2026138-14630.18219.61624.89966.14537100926800.596.156.74TT-1.818136.18246356.5060008913523.5812216959890.37477726578306162113126WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2026138-14629.94820.53425.24166.27805840618700.536.156.68TT-2.052133.94846356.5873432344323.6339167617980.36446080245808162113126WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:04FORECAST2026138-14629.5719.45424.51266.41337429572400.536.156.68TT-2.43135.5746356.6702687122623.6876760561440.34800398935494162113126WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026138-14630.7420.7525.74565.82298566560500.526.156.67TT-1.26135.7446356.3082523444323.4532729866040.3997296095238162113126WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026138-14630.79420.71425.75465.0977336623200.426.156.57TT-1.206136.79446355.8627963308523.1658615358740.40216804744905162112124WETL
2026-02-10 03:02:24FORECAST2026138-14630.61420.6625.63765.08865348382300.416.156.56TT-1.386138.61446355.857214004323.1622668920440.3940552570497162112124WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026138-14628.54419.4924.01759.13526450002600.296.186.47TF-3.456127.54446352.1693247361120.8256261670660.30482767786164162112124WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026138-14629.08420.06624.57559.0668263087400.296.186.47TF-2.916131.08446352.1266049212520.799001011570.32726222598909162112124WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2026138-14629.06619.88624.47659.6438531857370.0232283590.4432283596.186.623228359TT-2.934131.06646352.4865584249121.0236565406410.32650367015212162112124WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2026138-14627.48217.85222.66760.78277794164900.366.186.54TT-4.518126.48246353.1954814277421.4682025176160.26283533940867162112124WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:25FORECAST2026138-14627.28416.9722.12761.84715910670800.366.346.7TT-4.716121.28446353.856153509221.8849978269710.25534609986266162112124WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2026138-14627.3216.35821.83961.08360402509700.326.216.53TF-4.68125.3246353.3823883059221.5858698767220.25669944658195162112124WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026138-14625.14219.56222.35261.7473753554090.0842520140.4742520146.086.554252014TT-6.858121.14246353.7942925795521.8458689825110.18192701738208161112123WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2026138-14631.51422.2826.89760.8341979351950.0850394160.4750394166.016.485039416TT-0.486131.51446353.2274394108321.4883079652610.43500853503334162112124WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:05FORECAST2026138-14630.77620.73225.75461.4424884402230.0807087050.4907087055.996.480708705TT-1.224128.77646353.6051807879821.7263822329680.40135480669552162113126WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026138-14633.54823.86428.70661.4855905907450.0440945120.3840945125.996.374094512TF1.548134.54846353.6319245894621.7432677351250.52947588270386163112125WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2026138-14629.62422.56826.09661.8321502625010.0440945120.38409451266.384094512TF-2.376126.62446353.8468497790421.879111585450.35033837072925162112124WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026138-14630.23619.38224.80962.288633273860.0736220870.4236220876.056.473622087TF-1.764128.23646354.129657331422.0582523569130.3771710751498162112124WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:06FORECAST2026138-14630.21819.95825.08868.550481034230.3133859961.3333859967.168.493385996TT-1.782118.21846357.9761766654924.5394391092140.37637260913707162114128WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026138-14630.21822.69426.45668.3462312247960.31496081.34496087.378.7149608TT-1.782122.21846357.8516732086324.4578132012970.37637260913707162114128WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:46FORECAST2026138-14630.88424.13427.50968.505856738580.338582861.388582867.458.83858286TT-1.116123.88446357.9489807879224.5216015975780.40624053791609162114128WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:04FORECAST2026138-14628.16620.04824.10764.9502839418070.0106299270.5706299277.498.060629927TT-3.834117.16646355.7721310260123.1075009287210.28954226610432162113126WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026138-14627.96819.92223.94565.6674553558110.0110236280.5710236287.718.281023628TT-4.032117.96846356.2127933983323.3915877076530.28168178463469162113126WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:17FORECAST2026138-14628.25620.2124.23365.5427551504090.0125984320.5825984327.718.292598432TT-3.744117.25646356.1362296250823.3421496985060.29314890729134162113126WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:10FORECAST2026138-14630.81220.35425.58366.2291347531080.0318897810.4918897818.158.641889781TT-1.188112.81246356.5573543935423.6144850713420.40298171182248162113126WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026138-14631.17222.5526.86165.5948914758340.0318897810.4918897818.148.631889781TT-0.828114.17246356.1682433788123.3628172715710.41933872158998162113126WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:05FORECAST2026138-14631.15421.79426.47465.0179121574500.4288.42TT-0.846114.15446355.8137191303623.1342651348340.41851730079985162112124WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:04FORECAST2026138-14645.46427.8636.66260.40151390479300.247.788.02TT13.464136.46446352.9583921836221.3192212332920.92877651982939165112127WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026138-14645.46427.8636.66258.95044685904200.247.347.58TT13.464137.46446352.0539426320820.7537372366490.92877651982939165112127WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026138-14645.51828.4937.00458.7150807332790.0153543390.2153543397.277.485354339TT13.518140.51846351.9069245520520.6622434856740.92963303404971165112127WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2026138-14623.28820.3921.83962.30215570513900.267.447.7TT-8.712104.28846354.1380299615922.0635626837780.13034028142381161112123WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:04FORECAST2026138-14620.8418.60819.72464.07838463946400.317.447.75TT-11.1697.8446355.2353145771622.7629051249960.079091053718544161112123WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026138-14627.24821.3824.31464.6541384379740.094488240.364488247.557.91448824TT-4.752102.24846355.5899316059622.9903606652020.25399648657647162112124WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:04FORECAST2026138-14623.84621.86622.85669.51954265494600.787.658.43TT-8.15488.84646358.5660029251324.9273445349670.14467734855442161113124.5WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:06FORECAST2026138-14619.45418.69819.07670.60137031644400.717.828.53TT-12.54681.45446359.2227522615725.3616185585110.057796003644144161113124.5WETL