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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 14, 2026

[ Friday, February 13, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 15, 2026 ]

DAY 137 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2026 11:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.205
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 148

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.58 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -147

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-14 11:00:02FORECAST2026137-14725.46619.34622.40661.2224832282090.0531496350.2431496356.566.803149635TT-6.534148.46645352.5380212108521.5832530908870.20458639461618161112123WETL
2026-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2026137-14725.71818.96822.34361.4229546421980.055118140.245118146.566.80511814TT-6.282148.71845352.6629270868621.6615989744410.21226797369007161112123WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:04FORECAST2026137-14726.65419.36423.00961.4279065463660.0570866450.2470866456.566.807086645TT-5.346149.65445352.6660116192921.6635348038290.24223201664424161112123WETL
2026-02-13 23:00:01FORECAST2026137-14726.45619.52622.99161.6060074707890.1409449580.7309449586.567.290944958TT-5.544147.45645352.7769245862721.7331778515840.23570885313611161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 19:00:01FORECAST2026137-14726.5120.3923.4561.8401831914110.2003938090.7903938096.567.350393809TT-5.49147.5145352.9226819902421.8248033066810.23747824634433161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 15:00:01FORECAST2026137-14726.79820.51623.65761.7493972605440.181102460.771102466.567.33110246TT-5.202147.79845352.8661846220621.789274214040.24703681815612161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026137-14726.27619.9423.10863.5575979464470.1019685590.6919685596.567.251968559TT-5.724147.27645353.989002787122.4986907166060.22986362708755161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:05FORECAST2026137-14725.95220.49823.22563.8901699618420.1169291970.7669291976.567.326929197TT-6.048146.95245354.1949554360422.6295759024360.21954925397287161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026137-14726.52821.77624.15263.7449295303510.1047244660.7347244666.567.294724466TT-5.472148.52845354.1050334528622.5724004037950.23806965761513161113124.5WETL
2026-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026137-14726.9620.85823.90964.8465675561170.106299270.726299276.567.28629927TT-5.04147.9645354.7862573877223.0066710076750.25250248903725162113126WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:02FORECAST2026137-14728.07619.68823.88264.794445294690.1059055690.7059055696.567.265905569TT-3.924149.07645354.7540692964222.9860931360960.2918135052379162113126WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:04FORECAST2026137-14729.10220.8424.97164.825757925750.141732360.731732366.567.29173236TT-2.898150.10245354.7734069160222.9984549952320.33028710252906162113126WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:01FORECAST2026137-14728.56221.95625.25964.4942527595640.1472441740.6872441746.567.247244174TT-3.438150.56245354.5686024901122.8676370696030.30977979419131162113126WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:03FORECAST2026137-14727.7722.96425.36764.4896342568870.1562992970.7062992976.567.266299297TT-4.23148.7745354.5657479535322.8658154055430.28075615739429162113126WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2026137-14727.57221.8324.70164.5698576412020.188976480.708976486.567.26897648TT-4.428147.57245354.6153264890522.8974611487860.27371094187006162113126WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2026137-14726.70819.43623.07265.504644380430.1480315760.5880315766.567.148031576TT-5.292136.70845355.1922862514923.2667443975760.24402786773895161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2026137-14726.7819.63423.20765.1925312496350.1559055960.5059055966.567.065905596TT-5.22136.7845354.9997992112623.1433355036940.24643344689231161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026137-14725.95218.87822.41565.1655223409760.1570866990.5070866996.567.067086699TT-6.048135.95245354.9831350475523.1326614176110.21954925397287161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2026137-14724.96218.33821.6565.681621449550.2425198160.5925198166.567.152519816TT-7.038133.96245355.3013641307923.3367696993470.1897274493263161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:09FORECAST2026137-14725.73618.8622.29865.9721361902450.2275591780.5775591786.567.137559178TT-6.264137.73645355.4803134373323.4517956510390.21282302114331161113124.5WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026137-14725.37619.68822.53265.5473876965570.1354331440.5154331446.567.075433144TT-6.624138.37645355.2186351177823.2836535931070.20188348758761161113124.5WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:07FORECAST2026137-14728.09420.26424.17966.1453710092680.2279528790.5879528796.567.147952879TT-3.906138.09445355.5869586203323.5204313039990.29247020003638162113126WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2026137-14728.47219.8524.16166.2780584061870.1893701810.5293701816.567.089370181TT-3.528136.47245355.6686106523523.5730249500640.30641647396825162113126WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026137-14727.53619.77823.65766.4133742957240.192913490.532913496.567.09291349TT-4.464137.53645355.7518518464823.6266808930770.27243944118586162113126WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026137-14728.63422.08225.35865.8229856656050.1759843470.5159843476.567.075984347TT-3.366136.63445355.3884571993923.3927293239570.31248197126411162113126WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026137-14728.72422.42425.57465.097733662320.1759843470.4159843476.566.975984347TT-3.276137.72445354.9413052326823.1058745537930.31587389785295162112124WETL
2026-02-10 03:02:11FORECAST2026137-14728.25621.88425.0765.0886534838230.1838583670.4138583676.566.973858367TT-3.744140.25645354.9357016529423.1022868939250.29841109237953162112124WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026137-14726.92420.73223.82859.1352645000260.0370078940.2870078946.596.877007894TT-5.076130.92445351.2337717452120.7703019934950.25128242217467162112124WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026137-14727.60821.4724.53959.066826308740.0370078940.2870078946.596.877007894TT-4.392133.60845351.1908892862220.7437312586810.27498536749636162112124WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2026137-14727.53622.02824.78259.4946412325380.1059055690.4159055696.597.005905569TT-4.464133.53645351.4588301129920.909917005580.27243944118586162112124WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2026137-14726.619.86823.23460.7827779416490.1511811840.3611811846.596.951181184TT-5.4130.645352.2638352505121.4115744749050.24044334211495161112123WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:22FORECAST2026137-14725.48419.23822.36161.8471591067080.1511811840.3611811846.757.111181184TT-6.516126.48445352.9270226619821.8275337236320.20512954324441161112123WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2026137-14725.73618.21221.97461.0836040250970.1086614760.3186614766.626.938661476TT-6.264129.73645352.4514537260121.5290050374690.21282302114331161112123WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026137-14726.74418.33822.54161.1055955637170.0204724520.3904724526.496.880472452TT-5.256127.74445352.465163732721.537593745350.24522907382607161112123WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:04FORECAST2026137-14728.25620.98424.6260.4955896873140.0204724520.3904724526.426.810472452TT-3.744132.25645352.0845885757421.2995648057040.29841109237953162112124WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2026137-14727.87821.63224.75561.0472477102370.0425197080.4125197086.46.812519708TT-4.122129.87845352.4287867236721.5148074433380.2846355731348162112124WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026137-14729.89420.53425.21461.2012876611150.0720472830.3420472836.46.742047283TT-2.106132.89445352.5248113661121.5749723880970.36129370261996162112124WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2026137-14726.83418.6822.75761.5168513328710.0720472830.3420472836.416.752047283TT-5.166128.83445352.7214085646621.6983104525930.24824592430843161112123WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026137-14726.54617.5122.02861.7650839979640.0228346580.3528346586.466.812834658TT-5.454129.54645352.875947631621.7954125463270.23866187389638161112123WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2026137-14725.39417.8721.63267.0637579361810.4129923491.0229923497.578.592992349TT-6.606120.39445356.1515441679123.8848609466740.20242235545602161114126WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026137-14726.72619.18422.95566.8722921372610.4137797511.0337797517.788.813779751TT-5.274123.72645356.0339477097623.8088061620290.24462807433647161114126WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:44FORECAST2026137-14727.71619.50823.61267.2699733305910.4181104621.0481104627.868.908110462TT-4.284124.71645356.2781357345523.9668206891360.27882607451274162114128WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:04FORECAST2026137-14727.33821.36224.3564.85242652455800.717.758.46TT-4.662121.33845354.7898753259923.0089843212360.26549899160024162113126WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026137-14727.69819.59823.64865.56371177812600.77.988.68TT-4.302121.69845355.2286972471823.2901119216330.27818414984419162113126WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:17FORECAST2026137-14728.25619.6723.96365.42018005427700.717.988.69TT-3.744121.25645355.1402103010423.2333365024080.29841109237953162113126WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:10FORECAST2026137-14730.54217.16823.85566.22913475310800.688.349.02TT-1.458113.54245355.6385076370823.553630645690.38737000037155162113126WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026137-14730.90221.8326.36665.59489147583400.688.339.01TT-1.098114.90245355.2479151875523.3024484437430.40208818048486162113126WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026137-14731.02821.32626.17765.0179121574500.598.248.83TT-0.972115.02845354.8920411840523.0743395590830.40727369287025162113126WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026137-14733.06227.530.28160.80702030479300.278.168.43TT1.062123.06245352.2789599796621.4210338724350.4926042997129162112124WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026137-14733.06227.530.28159.35595325904200.277.727.99TT1.062124.06245351.3720016173120.8560201045330.4926042997129162112124WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026137-14733.85427.93230.89359.26995833327900.237.657.88TT1.854126.85445351.3181473373420.8226119544090.5261424196659163112125WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:05FORECAST2026137-14730.63220.28225.45762.30215570513900.547.578.11TT-1.368112.63245353.2099722826222.0057426897590.39103530448508162113126WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:04FORECAST2026137-14729.53420.15624.84564.07838463946400.637.538.16TT-2.466108.53445354.3114345121722.7037043828310.34707185416767162113126WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026137-14729.87622.06425.9764.65413843797400.647.598.23TT-2.124106.87645354.6674016492622.9307152856680.36057784516891162113126WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2026137-14729.08418.26623.67569.51954265494601.137.718.84TT-2.91697.08445357.6548035539224.8639983714130.32959480193351162114128WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:06FORECAST2026137-14729.46219.2224.34170.60137031644400.987.968.94TT-2.53894.46245358.3140532855825.2974631656010.34425237922294162113126WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2026137-14731.13622.4626.79875.85397653190401.388.7910.17TT-0.86481.13645361.4892893976627.4204000745040.41173142379291162114128WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026137-14731.13622.4626.79875.97992785078701.388.7310.11TT-0.86485.13645361.5649089526727.47167569560.41173142379291162114128WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026137-14731.20822.98227.09576.715786484930.0102362261.1702362268.719.880236226TT-0.79286.20845362.0062258076827.7715923252770.41470962302754162114128WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:06FORECAST2026137-14734.8833.58434.23271.9077010247320.0098425251.2198425258.219.429842525TT2.88101.8845359.1077012016325.8226092136860.569281142024261631141210WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2026137-14734.8833.58434.23270.9742498879190.0098425251.2198425258.279.489842525TT2.88101.8845358.5408610932525.4471686702620.569281142024261631141210WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026137-14733.36832.9933.17973.9033710302130.0102362261.6602362268.319.970236226TT1.368102.36845360.3150771167726.6284988319410.505569008422371631151212.5WETL