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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 13, 2026

[ Thursday, February 12, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 14, 2026 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.62°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.45°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.304
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 164

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.80 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 44
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.52 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-14 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026136-14829.6200425.4499827.5350161.195743750.190.196.616.8TT-2.37996163.6200444351.58714335576 21.5156367305940.3043803441048316 2112124WETL
2026-02-14 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026136-14829.6200425.4499827.5350161.195743750.190.196.616.8TT-2.37996163.6200444351.58714335576 21.5156367305940.3043803441048316 2112124WETL
2026-02-13 11:00:01FORECAST2026136-14827.87822.62225.2563.1227761168790.5893703970.5893703976.617.199370397TT-4.122161.87844352.7898158485722.2690725621240.24128469617382161113124.5WETL
2026-02-13 07:00:05FORECAST2026136-14828.36422.76625.56563.3990989131560.645669640.645669646.617.25566964TT-3.636162.36444352.9617885011222.3774593417470.25814545295981162113126WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:05FORECAST2026136-14829.24622.0125.62863.3144547471330.6267719920.6267719926.617.236771992TT-2.754163.24644352.9091220595522.344248638490.29023161192374162113126WETL
2026-02-12 23:00:01FORECAST2026136-14829.01221.61425.31364.3799389389310.6224412810.6224412816.617.232441281TT-2.988162.01244353.5712518099222.7628956020840.28153961890849162113126WETL
2026-02-12 19:00:01FORECAST2026136-14828.61621.88425.2564.3190451476910.6031499320.6031499326.617.213149932TT-3.384161.61644353.5334585036322.7389344787140.26712225603279162113126WETL
2026-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2026136-14829.46224.22426.84364.2097598533440.5940948090.5940948096.617.204094809TT-2.538162.46244353.4656166878322.695942363940.29836474463272162113126WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:01FORECAST2026136-14829.96624.20627.08663.849634218340.5374018650.5374018656.617.147401865TT-2.034162.96644353.241925593922.5543677397520.31773323563369162113126WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:03FORECAST2026136-14829.9324.1727.0563.8422891355840.5523625030.5523625036.617.162362503TT-2.07161.9344353.2373610854622.5514817399080.3163322592645162113126WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2026136-14829.98424.11627.0563.7635150848290.5224412270.5224412276.617.132441227TT-2.016160.98444353.1884025971422.5205340367890.31843470450381162113126WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:01FORECAST2026136-14828.52622.80225.66464.7923240476970.4440947280.4440947286.617.054094728TT-3.474150.52644353.8270419667822.925276359950.26389827581595162112124WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.56222.20825.38564.4386483302030.35433090.35433096.616.9643309TT-3.438150.56244353.6076838493222.7860011864240.265185487035162112124WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.52622.5525.53864.4028213867940.3452757770.3452757776.616.955275777TT-3.474150.52644353.5854521304422.7719007185260.26389827581595162112124WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.16622.08225.12464.4058614814380.3500001890.3500001896.616.960000189TT-3.834150.16644353.5873386811122.7730971566850.25120344475209162112124WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:08FORECAST2026136-14828.5622325.78164.7723189053630.3480316840.3480316846.616.958031684TT-3.438152.56244353.8146395574422.9173946668010.265185487035162112124WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.74222.80225.77264.8275334657910.3834647740.3834647746.616.993464774TT-3.258153.74244353.8488689044922.9391493907380.27166894653726162112124WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:06FORECAST2026136-14829.73223.50426.61864.9930193824780.3551183020.3551183026.616.965118302TT-2.268150.73244353.951430391823.004372175910.30867432682712162112124WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2026136-14829.17422.94626.0665.3232743079190.3377954580.3377954586.616.947795458TT-2.826149.17444354.1559802370823.1346282448160.28754380975949162112124WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14829.0482326.02465.431777943730.3444883750.3444883756.616.954488375TT-2.952151.04844354.2231466465223.1774502739040.2828686497685162112124WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.14823.5425.84465.0628955072190.3366143550.3366143556.616.946614355TT-3.852149.14844353.9947238486423.031921727870.25057727798753162112124WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026136-14829.4823.48626.48364.339358387380.2374017030.2374017036.616.847401703TT-2.52150.4844353.5460664237422.7469270740850.29904715883576162112124WETL
2026-02-10 03:01:55FORECAST2026136-14829.8423.77426.80764.163933581990.2318898890.2318898896.616.841889889TT-2.16152.8444353.4371631802822.6779186637070.31284135689441162112124WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.36423.61225.98858.9271222559730.2531497430.2531497436.646.893149743TT-3.636145.36444350.163717965620.6341402181650.25814545295981162112124WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026136-14829.15623.57626.36658.864551254130.2531497430.2531497436.646.893149743TT-2.844147.15644350.1243420239720.6099122763880.28687370063792162112124WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.56223.57626.06958.8732453966660.3114174910.3114174916.646.951417491TT-3.438146.56244350.1298136236520.6132784381540.265185487035162112124WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.36422.22625.29559.8829684064470.2114174370.2114174376.646.851417437TT-3.636145.36444350.7644547609821.0048167625560.25814545295981162112124WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:20FORECAST2026136-14827.96822.24425.10660.9091813719720.2114174370.2114174376.87.011417437TT-4.032141.96844351.4077947378221.4039611052110.24436129027295161112123WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2026136-14827.73422.29825.01660.4142478503040.2149607460.2149607466.676.884960746TT-4.266144.73444351.0977268524121.211305089740.23640617409187161112123WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.95823.66626.31260.956292840870.3688978370.3688978376.546.908897837TT-3.042141.95844351.4372890021421.4223143036160.27955173180551162112124WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14829.37223.61226.49260.3621245646040.3685041360.3685041366.476.838504136TT-2.628145.37244351.0650497600421.1910322638950.29496334639279162112124WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2026136-14828.59824.54826.57360.7791067659040.3688978370.3688978376.456.818897837TT-3.402142.59844351.3263428468321.3533013015620.26647587476061162112124WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026136-14828.29223.30625.79961.2012876611150.2681103810.2681103816.456.718110381TT-3.708144.29244351.5906117942621.5177981713680.2556096458213162112124WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2026136-14827.35622.38824.87261.0938869933740.2681103810.2681103816.466.728110381TT-4.644143.35644351.5234099948121.4759314857480.22386178335408161112123WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026136-14827.69821.61424.65661.6276606115250.3291340360.3291340366.516.839134036TT-4.302143.69844351.8572173408321.6841371739960.23519506916936161112123WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2026136-14828.32822.87425.60164.070722616970.6055121380.6055121387.628.225512138TT-3.672136.32844353.3792783212622.6412657199060.25687592333184162113126WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14827.80622.9125.35864.0520996414280.6153546630.6153546637.838.445354663TT-4.194137.80644353.3677116410122.6339438760930.23883863310642161113124.5WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:40FORECAST2026136-14827.84223.37825.6164.48501552990.6318901050.6318901057.918.541890105TT-4.158137.84244353.6364531177122.8042521712350.24005996881201161113124.5WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:04FORECAST2026136-14826.962324.9864.8524265245580.5614176260.7114176267.88.511417626TT-5.04134.9644353.864299371722.9489584746670.21113478877202161113124.5WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026136-14826.67221.09223.88265.5637117781260.5625987290.7025987298.038.732598729TT-5.328134.67244354.3047919884923.2295372635420.20215062103299161113124.5WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:17FORECAST2026136-14826.97820.91223.94565.4201800542770.5704727490.7104727498.038.740472749TT-5.022133.97844354.2159681522823.1728724146220.21170394703937161113124.5WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:10FORECAST2026136-14825.01617.92421.4766.2291347531080.4590553660.6790553668.399.069055366TT-6.984124.01644354.7161626204523.4925445332960.1550581563453161113124.5WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14827.64422.29824.97165.5948914758340.4590553660.6790553668.389.059055366TT-4.356124.64444354.3240830959623.2418497779540.23338484286559161113124.5WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026136-14827.4121.6524.5365.017912157450.4224411730.5924411738.298.882441173TT-4.59125.4144353.9668541985823.0141858329320.22563038140867161113124.5WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14833.09825.80829.45360.8280779047930.2389765070.2689765078.218.478976507TT1.098131.09844351.3570114211521.3723716631210.44753668810064162112124WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026136-14833.18827.30230.24559.3770108590420.2389765070.2689765077.778.038976507TT1.188132.18844350.4466487537220.8084744685650.45142760020686162112124WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026136-14834.86227.89631.37959.3208311332790.2011812110.2311812117.77.931181211TT2.862133.86244350.4113355062520.7866916607530.52424898620433163112125WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026136-14828.83221.14624.98962.3021557051390.2649607730.5449607737.628.164960773TT-3.168122.83244352.2783812753921.9477025617740.27493997360378162113126WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14827.55420.89424.22464.0783846394640.3106300890.6306300897.588.210630089TT-4.446119.55444353.3840370240622.6442782498740.23038502176865161113124.5WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14828.97623.30626.14164.6541384379740.2740158960.6440158967.648.284015896TT-3.024117.97644353.7413594096122.8708428225060.28021360401792162113126WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14826.3321.0223.67569.5195426549460.7771657741.1271657747.768.887165774TT-5.67109.3344356.7401350378924.8004110344980.19178379775987161114126WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2026136-14826.36621.4723.91870.6013703164440.70866180.97866188.018.9886618TT-5.634106.36644357.4018946843525.2330635184080.1928594937111161113124.5WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2026136-14827.48223.86425.67375.8539765319040.8023626381.3923626388.8310.222362638TT-4.51891.48244360.5892196479327.3521262048310.22800074234531161114126WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026136-14827.48223.86425.67375.9799278507870.8023626381.3923626388.7710.162362638TT-4.51895.48244360.6651271039227.4033103356510.22800074234531161114126WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14827.64424.33225.98876.715786484930.6606302781.1706302788.759.920630278TT-4.35695.64444361.1081241533227.7026937505190.23338484286559161114126WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2026136-14840.42423.12631.77572.0043298247320.3838584751.2138584758.269.473858475TT8.424108.42444358.2573886184825.7960831722320.748081498305971641141212WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2026136-14840.42423.12631.77571.0708786879190.3838584751.2138584758.329.533858475TT8.424108.42444357.6885300560725.4212381276750.748081498305971641141212WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026136-14839.25423.68431.46973.9162614302130.8318902131.6518902138.3610.011890213TT7.254110.25444359.4183452744126.5668603721180.705619652561961641151215WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026136-14832.41425.14228.77874.4262404944060.5799215732.7899215737.310.089921573TT0.41497.41444359.727061737626.7731328092280.418156849361261621151210WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026136-14832.41425.50228.95870.7573521354440.5877955932.8077955937.3510.157795593TT0.41498.41444357.4971596745125.2955524145110.418156849361261621151210WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2026136-14831.87424.27828.07667.136640543730.2976379562.4376379567.559.987637956TT-0.12695.87444355.2760715405423.8520419088050.395272334368281621151210WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026136-14834.53829.26431.90161.80521282956100.717.78.41TT2.538109.53844351.96815334621.7534666267770.5101421413555163113127.5WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026136-14834.53829.26431.90162.24481506420200.727.698.41TT2.538111.53844352.2426050534821.9252758092860.5101421413555163113127.5WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:06FORECAST2026136-14830.09229.7529.92163.60002009826900.727.88.52TT-1.908105.09244353.0867583302322.4563249262350.3226571145223162113126WETL