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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 12, 2026

[ Wednesday, February 11, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, February 13, 2026 ]

DAY 135 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2026 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.657
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.61 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 43
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.55 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-13 07:00:05OBSERVATION2026135-14938.1999227.3000232.7499761.039904166667006.616.61TF6.19992172.1999243350.55148465057 21.3976290285540.6565843271862216 3111122.5WETL
2026-02-13 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026135-14938.1999227.3000232.7499761.039904166667006.616.61TF6.19992172.1999243350.55148465057 21.3976290285540.6565843271862216 3111122.5WETL
2026-02-12 11:00:01FORECAST2026135-14936.75222.96429.85861.8954008006.616.61TF4.752170.75243351.0883799012121.7307559902080.59131612174738163111122.5WETL
2026-02-12 07:00:03FORECAST2026135-14935.58222.76629.17461.8176112006.616.61TF3.582169.58243351.0396086650321.7004300442550.53655729800179163111122.5WETL
2026-02-12 03:00:07FORECAST2026135-14935.47423.37829.42661.8081648006.616.61TF3.474169.47443351.0336854612921.6967478813430.53145105543597163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 23:00:01FORECAST2026135-14934.98822.38828.68862.9441088006.616.61TF2.988159.98843351.744941699222.1402718801640.50842100340553163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 19:00:02FORECAST2026135-14935.13223.32429.22862.9411568006.616.61TF3.132160.13243351.7430960019622.1391173587770.515251119916163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 15:00:02FORECAST2026135-14934.91623.43229.17462.9480448006.616.61TF2.916159.91643351.7474026073322.141811257610.50500489368234163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14934.98823.41429.20162.9349576006.616.61TF2.988159.98843351.7392199927122.1366928964980.50842100340553163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 07:00:08FORECAST2026135-14934.93422.98228.95863.3654521006.616.61TF2.934161.93443352.00823887522.3051611992390.50585896531072163111122.5WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026135-14934.68222.92828.80563.3588593006.616.61TF2.682162.68243352.0041212079122.3025795886320.4939012999434162111122WETL
2026-02-10 23:00:04FORECAST2026135-14934.44823.4528.94963.8797552006.616.61TF2.448159.44843352.3292449127922.506705914830.48280242959823162111122WETL
2026-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2026135-14934.3422.42428.38263.8890048006.616.61TF2.34158.3443352.3350142804122.5103334185690.47768384492406162111122WETL
2026-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026135-14934.722.128.463.8854624006.616.61TF2.7159.743352.3328047513822.5089441502310.49475536442846162111122WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14935.43822.76629.10263.8639128006.616.61TF3.438159.43843352.3193630214422.5004930777530.52974778228088163111122.5WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2026135-14934.12424.81829.47163.435596416667006.616.61TF2.124159.12443352.052044662822.3326314228910.4674585523938162111122WETL
2026-02-10 03:01:42FORECAST2026135-14934.64625.59230.11963.412570816667006.616.61TF2.646160.64643352.0376658187622.3236134138660.49219325875065162111122WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026135-14935.0624.9830.0257.8776888006.646.64TF3.06155.0643348.5567746305220.1736605311970.51183649559639163111122.5WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026135-14935.2424.4429.8457.8360656006.646.64TF3.24156.2443348.5304119411120.1576277686210.52037088200745163111122.5WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2026135-14935.4224.63830.02957.8422648006.646.64TF3.42156.4243348.5343384757520.1600154980070.52889593959876163111122.5WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14934.62824.49429.56159.310504159338006.646.64TF2.628154.62843349.4625728916120.726801383020.49133928987028162111122WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:16FORECAST2026135-14933.69223.66628.67960.17200319927006.86.8TT1.692151.69243350.0056111912121.060538756360.44707892731184162111122WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:05FORECAST2026135-14934.68223.88229.28259.509607373101006.676.67TF2.682154.68243349.5881814404120.8038554197950.4939012999434162111122WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026135-14932.922.44227.67159.660940549053006.546.54TF0.9150.943349.6836107513520.8624531120140.41011438616591162111122WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14933.36822.15427.76159.315769457422006.476.47TF1.368154.36843349.4658954360520.7288384869160.43188243397442162111122WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:04FORECAST2026135-14933.42222.06427.74359.273681358952006.456.45TF1.422152.42243349.4393354739920.7125558251690.43440881912464162111122WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14932.8122.78427.79759.869691997549006.456.45TF0.81153.8143349.8151873136520.9433275205330.40595762294188162111122WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:04FORECAST2026135-14932.6323.25227.94159.645592900531006.466.46TF0.63153.6343349.6739343364820.8565091353610.39767626218059162111122WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026135-14932.43222.65827.54559.819701146503006.516.51TF0.432154.43243349.7836843074920.9239554611970.38861985371118162111122WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:05FORECAST2026135-14930.39822.56826.48360.60648884877007.627.62TT-1.602146.39843350.2790349376221.2291824249050.29983943750684162111122WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026135-14930.75823.5427.14960.526782530774007.837.83TT-1.242147.75843350.228897995921.198228344990.31488909128659162111122WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:36FORECAST2026135-14930.6522.65826.65460.848842205078007.917.91TT-1.35147.6543350.4314179318521.3233460534370.31034030308882162111122WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14930.07423.48626.7861.6558163271270.1507874830.1507874837.87.950787483TT-1.926146.07443350.9381383224821.6373773985940.28657987297306162112124WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2026135-14929.98423.82826.90662.2510141186230.1405512570.1405512578.038.170551257TT-2.016145.98443351.3112137760621.8694793288040.28294658442858162112124WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:17FORECAST2026135-14930.14622.98226.56461.9733208140020.1413386590.1413386598.038.171338659TT-1.854145.14643351.1372232424321.7611397857410.28950232702139162112124WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:10FORECAST2026135-14930.43422.9126.67262.9641069638980.2232284670.3432284678.278.613228467TT-1.566137.43443351.7574449106222.1480933866990.30132969347568162112124WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14930.39824.06227.2362.5179973142680.2232284670.3432284678.268.603228467TT-1.602135.39843351.4783781473321.9737243010380.29983943750684162112124WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026135-14930.50624.13427.3262.1330326222630.173228440.293228448.178.46322844TT-1.494135.50643351.2373067011221.8234390354160.30432015383385162112124WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14931.6423.70227.67160.1873274325880.0311023790.0311023798.218.241102379TT-0.36135.6443350.0152599337121.0664830560330.35304043467297162111122WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026135-14931.71223.3627.53659.4039724590420.0311023790.0311023797.777.801102379TT-0.288136.71243349.5215472914820.7629683691450.35622767870352162111122WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026135-14932.1823.07227.62659.4114575332790.0311023790.0311023797.77.731102379TT0.18137.1843349.5262694397320.7658651135840.37718107122205162111122WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026135-14931.74824.42228.08561.2715835671830.2838584210.2838584217.627.903858421TT-0.252131.74843350.696997943221.4877604162370.3578250900722162112124WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14932.23424.69228.46361.8280572771310.3232285210.3232285217.587.903228521TT0.234130.23443351.0461585337721.7045019967430.3796235681854162112124WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026135-14931.89223.70227.79762.7206500790130.3744096510.3744096517.648.014409651TT-0.108126.89243351.605188085922.0529059679020.36423940552045162112124WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2026135-14930.12823.34226.73563.5641866215490.3547246010.6847246017.438.114724601TT-1.872121.12843352.1323301936122.3830051519080.28877040402745162113126WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2026135-14930.8320.325.56564.9874941148370.2744095970.6044095977.688.284409597TT-1.17117.8343353.019225608822.9418348466760.31793733745709162113126WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:04FORECAST2026135-14930.27221.66825.9769.0503850061350.5779530680.8879530688.539.417953068TT-1.728102.27243355.5333374269924.549713831850.29464999316166162113126WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14930.27223.57626.92469.1763363250180.5779530680.8879530688.479.357953068TT-1.728106.27243355.6108620836724.5998565963290.29464999316166162113126WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026135-14930.79424.0827.43771.1115619695440.5019687750.8119687758.459.261968775TT-1.206105.79443356.7989055425425.3725274821540.31641165654259162113126WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2026135-14931.47825.57428.52668.9816939890870.8287406050.9187406058.179.088740605TT-0.522106.47843355.4910467698824.522374604140.34590699602076162113126WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:07FORECAST2026135-14931.47825.57428.52668.0482428522750.8287406050.9187406058.239.148740605TT-0.522106.47843354.9156215236924.151384405510.34590699602076162113126WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026135-14931.80225.3428.57169.045327704020.8153547710.9053547718.279.175354771TT-0.198108.80243355.5302240745524.5477008299110.36022587264447162113126WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026135-14931.47825.46628.47271.9195635130051.6606308182.2106308187.39.510630818TT-0.522103.47843357.2932156701725.6963721171570.345906996020761621151210WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14932.30626.45629.38168.238263591281.6622056222.2222056227.359.572205622TT0.306104.30643355.0328702869624.2268265862110.382887698928331621151210WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2026135-14932.14425.64628.89565.1948429848731.5720480932.1420480937.559.692048093TT0.144102.14443353.1481620623223.023438976050.375555457715971621151210WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026135-14940.94625.733.32361.8362088295610.299212760.709212767.78.40921276TT8.946112.94643351.0512695756121.707679615360.76725299605342164113129WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026135-14940.94625.55633.25162.2758110642020.2960631520.7160631527.698.406063152TT8.946114.94643351.3267444946921.8791579619520.76725299605342164113129WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026135-14940.06425.71832.89163.6000200982690.2964568530.7164568537.88.516456853TT8.064113.06443352.1546982192522.3970458844440.73398166758953164113129WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:04FORECAST2026135-14931.20829.2130.20961.6568917719820.342519871.012519877.278.28251987TT-0.79299.20843350.9388129299721.6377964074110.33413956763577162114128WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026135-14931.11829.67830.39863.9778222936420.3531497971.0531497977.28.253149797TT-0.882102.11843352.3904066170722.5451708125310.33025232348451162114128WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:08FORECAST2026135-14937.23832.84635.04260.6444349498020.3641734251.1941734257.28.394173425TT5.238117.23843350.3029002628921.243921447720.613609880544881631141210WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:04FORECAST2026135-14932.73831.67632.20759.2137644967770.5165357121.4365357127.218.646535712TT0.738114.73843349.4015196586720.6893792998850.40263980341888162114128WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:06FORECAST2026135-14932.73831.67632.20758.7077779416970.5165357121.43653571278.436535712TT0.738112.73843349.0819426409120.4938251720180.40263980341888162114128WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026135-14932.93632.43232.68458.0502514204320.1161417950.2061417956.726.926141795TT0.936115.93643348.6660400764620.2401512882050.4117799511401162112124WETL