Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 11, 2026

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DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/12/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.75°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.32°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.804 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 175 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.31 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.61 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 62 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 21.67 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -150 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-12 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	134	-150	41.88992	26.74994	34.31993	61.88964	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	9.88992	174.88992	42	350.14508627522	21.670353337342	0.80413581461697	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-12 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2026	134	-150	41.88992	26.74994	34.31993	61.88964	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	9.88992	174.88992	42	350.14508627522	21.670353337342	0.80413581461697	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-11 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.882	18.986	25.934	62.9879952	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	0.882	165.882	42	350.83531518003	22.09841314855	0.38934891589695	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-11 07:00:08	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.952	18.932	26.942	63.4189817	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	2.952	167.952	42	351.10563031648	22.266761543808	0.49216595790427	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-11 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.51	19.562	27.536	63.4085513	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.51	168.51	42	351.09909185333	22.262684777165	0.52026554658048	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.636	19.796	27.716	63.928168	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.636	165.636	42	351.42461135002	22.465931593718	0.52660167834642	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.33	19.4	27.365	63.9328912	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.33	165.33	42	351.42756827977	22.467780487511	0.51120543643649	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.528	22.154	28.841	63.9333832	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.528	165.528	42	351.42787629125	22.46797308209	0.52117105935574	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.33	22.514	28.922	63.9362368	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.33	165.33	42	351.42966275022	22.469090136142	0.51120543643649	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.186	22.496	28.841	63.479679616667	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.186	166.186	42	351.14367633995	22.290488073479	0.50395295758595	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-10 03:01:26	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.582	23.108	29.345	63.470725216667	0	0.3	6.31	6.61	T	T	3.582	166.582	42	351.13806400687	22.286987573693	0.52388692345581	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-09 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.61	22.262	28.436	57.9486352	0	0.33	6.31	6.64	T	T	2.61	160.61	42	347.65256744927	20.145991807461	0.47495394618437	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-09 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	36.158	22.082	29.12	57.9078976	0	0.33	6.31	6.64	T	T	4.158	162.158	42	347.62667213084	20.130329732782	0.55276200745005	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-09 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.834	21.722	28.778	57.9195088	0	0.33	6.31	6.64	T	T	3.834	161.834	42	347.63405319511	20.134793603214	0.53654426022834	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-09 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.348	21.056	28.202	59.365411359338	0	0.33	6.31	6.64	T	T	3.348	161.348	42	348.55149231332	20.691902721091	0.51211178501782	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-09 07:01:13	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.186	23.18	29.183	60.20132639927	0	0.49	6.31	6.8	T	T	3.186	159.186	42	349.08035345536	21.015100297939	0.50395295758595	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-09 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.42	23.396	29.408	59.553887373101	0	0.36	6.31	6.67	T	T	3.42	161.42	42	348.67083412527	20.764703585781	0.51573650709714	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-08 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.654	22.928	29.291	59.671469349053	0	0.41	6.13	6.54	T	T	3.654	158.654	42	348.74525734994	20.810141934585	0.52750632842116	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-08 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.546	23.054	29.3	59.332300657422	0	0.34	6.13	6.47	T	F	3.546	161.546	42	348.53052092703	20.67911765593	0.52207646286859	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-08 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.502	22.136	28.319	59.288638158952	0	0.32	6.13	6.45	T	F	2.502	159.502	42	348.5028636334	20.662260179319	0.46952674861403	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-08 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.61	22.388	28.499	59.875989597549	0	0.32	6.13	6.45	T	F	2.61	161.61	42	348.87465499949	20.889215213598	0.47495394618437	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-08 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.844	22.118	28.481	59.651595300531	0	0.41	6.05	6.46	T	F	2.844	161.844	42	348.73267968034	20.802460676361	0.48672748776636	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-08 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.42	22.046	28.733	59.822948346503	0	0.43	6.08	6.51	T	T	3.42	163.42	42	348.84110285516	20.868703277241	0.51573650709714	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-07 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.304	21.776	28.04	60.60648884877	0	0.55	7.07	7.62	T	T	2.304	157.304	42	349.33628518028	21.17204567225	0.45959229787299	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-07 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.258	22.838	29.048	60.526782530774	0	0.48	7.35	7.83	T	T	3.258	158.258	42	349.28595735574	21.141155181924	0.50757951020333	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-07 15:00:31	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.88	21.506	28.193	60.848842205078	0	0.58	7.33	7.91	T	T	2.88	157.88	42	349.48924833149	21.266016124094	0.48854008688965	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-07 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.116	21.11	27.113	61.30450100631	0	0.36	7.44	7.8	T	T	1.116	157.116	42	349.77658600604	21.442879068791	0.40072568854773	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-07 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.738	21.02	26.879	61.900558626189	0	0.39	7.64	8.03	T	T	0.738	156.738	42	350.15195724389	21.67460175745	0.38239398841535	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-07 03:00:17	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.99	21.326	27.158	61.613864599911	0	0.43	7.6	8.03	T	T	0.99	155.99	42	349.97148071505	21.563095426608	0.39458860149106	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-06 23:00:10	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.286	22.532	28.409	62.750369477009	0	0.53	7.86	8.39	T	T	2.286	148.286	42	350.68614950078	22.005685451643	0.45869032168589	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-06 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.034	23.432	28.733	62.457403496223	0	0.57	7.81	8.38	T	T	2.034	146.034	42	350.50212090797	21.891452391831	0.44608707196752	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-06 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.394	23.234	28.814	62.133032622263	0	0.58	7.71	8.29	T	T	2.394	146.394	42	350.29820530398	21.765089817672	0.46410520674372	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-06 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.576	21.758	27.167	60.187327432588	0	0.42	7.79	8.21	T	T	0.576	144.576	42	349.07150592449	21.009681024464	0.3746148863762	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-06 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.324	21.956	27.14	59.403972459042	0	0.32	7.45	7.77	T	T	0.324	146.324	42	348.5759136051	20.706793971683	0.36261585581437	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-06 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.062	23.108	28.085	59.413228733279	0	0.27	7.43	7.7	T	T	1.062	146.062	42	348.58177537897	20.710368752843	0.398092411714	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-05 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.926	24.242	29.084	61.054755977304	0	0.46	7.16	7.62	T	T	1.926	140.926	42	349.61913839606	21.345911179767	0.44070155448587	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-05 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.638	24.296	28.967	61.244441208316	0	0.47	7.11	7.58	T	T	1.638	138.638	42	349.73873142373	21.419553174952	0.42639632700217	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-05 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.26	23.72	28.49	62.148983237305	0	0.52	7.12	7.64	T	T	1.26	136.26	42	350.30823657908	21.771300723043	0.40776953524148	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-05 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.92	21.65	26.285	62.036814117509	0	0.67	7.09	7.76	T	T	-1.08	131.92	42	350.23768526775	21.727630177902	0.29848448249043	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-05 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	27.806	19.31	23.558	63.768360581608	0	0.77	7.24	8.01	T	T	-4.194	127.806	42	351.32454400946	22.403390203564	0.1782459178138	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-04 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	28.364	19.292	23.828	66.571144205439	0.012204731	0.992204731	7.85	8.842204731	T	T	-3.636	113.364	42	353.07369847637	23.504520096418	0.19722433175588	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-04 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.738	20.102	26.42	66.697095524321	0.012204731	0.992204731	7.79	8.782204731	T	T	0.738	116.738	42	353.15200988591	23.554213337966	0.38239398841535	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2026-02-04 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	31.892	20.318	26.105	68.917910394453	0.012204731	1.002204731	7.76	8.762204731	T	T	-0.108	115.892	42	354.52871486739	24.433378203492	0.3423621618677	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2026-02-04 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	31.064	21.56	26.312	65.67851506579	0	0.5	7.76	8.26	T	T	-0.936	116.064	42	352.51797943878	23.152857423532	0.30482248543344	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-04 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	31.154	20.75	25.952	64.745063928978	0	0.5	7.82	8.32	T	T	-0.846	116.154	42	351.93549678824	22.786086238431	0.30881382898726	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-04 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	31.46	21.596	26.528	65.37719839957	0	0.5	7.86	8.36	T	T	-0.54	118.46	42	352.33010581528	23.034355230027	0.3225517541659	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.848	21.938	26.393	65.527274728297	0.549606596	0.659606596	7.19	7.849606596	T	T	-1.152	112.848	42	352.42369771536	23.093364460957	0.29533810832361	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-03 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.794	23.918	27.356	64.425323289307	0.562598729	0.682598729	7.23	7.912598729	T	T	-1.206	112.794	42	351.73565773757	22.66068346212	0.29298838028655	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-03 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.794	22.262	26.528	63.714987113469	0.567716842	0.767716842	7.35	8.117716842	T	T	-1.206	110.794	42	351.29111385188	22.382508792148	0.29298838028655	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-03 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.218	20.948	25.583	61.702395961893	0.412992349	0.472992349	7.64	8.112992349	T	T	-1.782	113.218	42	350.0272260488	21.597518499106	0.26848082943192	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-03 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	29.93	20.714	25.322	61.958939900844	0.421653771	0.481653771	7.63	8.111653771	T	T	-2.07	114.93	42	350.18869269029	21.697320164353	0.25662521861817	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2026-02-03 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	29.462	20.48	24.971	63.177453539714	0.421653771	0.681653771	7.54	8.221653771	T	T	-2.538	114.462	42	350.95418007847	22.172391406476	0.23795689996243	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-02 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	29.372	19.454	24.413	61.656891771982	0.606693241	0.986693241	6.95	7.936693241	T	T	-2.628	109.372	42	349.99857509864	21.579824265205	0.23445402604513	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2026-02-02 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	30.092	20.57	25.331	63.977822293642	0.64173263	0.99173263	6.91	7.90173263	T	T	-1.908	112.092	42	351.45569533555	22.485370020266	0.26326034676013	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2026-02-02 15:00:07	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	32.648	22.55	27.599	60.757496549802	0.82283509	1.20283509	6.83	8.03283509	T	T	0.648	120.648	42	349.43160588777	21.230589589118	0.37806618173539	16	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2026-02-02 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	36.644	20.102	28.373	59.220750896777	0.851575263	1.181575263	6.95	8.131575263	T	T	4.644	122.644	42	348.45985546797	20.636054298196	0.57691584352855	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-02-02 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	36.644	20.39	28.517	58.714764341697	0.851575263	1.181575263	6.74	7.921575263	T	T	4.644	120.644	42	348.13906743985	20.440903302869	0.57691584352855	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2026-02-02 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	41.108	20.282	30.695	58.057729820432	0.018503947	0.348503947	6.46	6.808503947	T	T	9.108	124.108	42	347.7219014902	20.187944209365	0.77569068238775	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-01 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	38.822	27.464	33.143	56.479501032889	0	0.28	6.57	6.85	T	T	6.822	109.822	42	346.71699943613	19.582403127773	0.68047543375627	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-01 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	38.786	28.472	33.629	55.133115846458	0	0.27	6.58	6.85	T	T	6.786	109.786	42	345.85652870749	19.068148063484	0.67884905571589	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2026-02-01 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	35.456	27.662	31.559	57.760628190249	0.359449013	0.719449013	6.68	7.399449013	T	T	3.456	107.456	42	347.53303630163	20.073726493647	0.51754839933789	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2026-02-01 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.44	30.128	31.784	59.092058772612	0.011023628	0.551023628	6.49	7.041023628	T	T	1.44	123.44	42	348.37830564586	20.586391312328	0.41661618035352	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-01 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	33.44	30.128	31.784	57.774617798752	0.011023628	0.561023628	6.09	6.651023628	T	T	1.44	120.44	42	347.54193258452	20.07910232411	0.41661618035352	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2026-02-01 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	134	-150	34.664	34.25	34.457	55.96139181095	0	0.47	5.76	6.23	T	F	2.664	123.664	42	346.38622565352	19.384255291712	0.47766935212654	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L