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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 10, 2026

[ Monday, February 9, 2026 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 11, 2026 ]

DAY 133 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/11/2026 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.493
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 172

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.93 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 63 in
SWE DAY: 41
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.20 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-11 07:00:07OBSERVATION2026133-15134.1900623.0928.6400363.474282500.685.936.61TT2.19006172.1900641350.200822866 22.2287459623290.4928126081436116 2113126WETL
2026-02-11 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026133-15134.1900623.0928.6400363.474282500.685.936.61TT2.19006172.1900641350.200822866 22.2287459623290.4928126081436116 2113126WETL
2026-02-10 11:00:02FORECAST2026133-15130.99217.52824.266400.685.936.61TT-1.008168.99241350.5313604018622.4340070657190.34069311446303162113126WETL
2026-02-10 07:00:03FORECAST2026133-15132.28818.91425.60163.54314761666700.685.936.61TT0.288170.28841350.2441459720522.2556154693750.40071770408674162113126WETL
2026-02-10 03:01:12FORECAST2026133-15132.2718.4125.3463.54196681666700.685.936.61TT0.27170.2741350.2434031935722.2551547034820.39986393398934162113126WETL
2026-02-09 23:00:01FORECAST2026133-15132.01818.12225.0757.999901600.715.936.64TT0.018000000000001165.01841346.7325264463820.110452415410.38796313760395162113126WETL
2026-02-09 19:00:01FORECAST2026133-15131.7318.37425.0525800.715.936.64TT-0.27164.7341346.7325892221720.1104901748860.37449051821151162113126WETL
2026-02-09 15:00:02FORECAST2026133-15131.85619.74225.7995800.715.936.64TT-0.144164.85641346.7325892221720.1104901748860.38036704004071162113126WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026133-15131.51418.87825.19659.43409455933800.715.936.64TT-0.486164.51441347.6458273875320.662014978110.36448463994505162113126WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:08FORECAST2026133-15131.15418.60824.88160.2672543992700.875.936.8TT-0.846163.15441348.1748617969520.9835429713480.34801441276086162113126WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15131.74818.80625.27759.63063937310100.745.936.67TT-0.252164.74841347.7707290537520.7377909287250.37532827520848162113126WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026133-15132.3619.2225.7959.75520774905300.615.936.54TT0.36162.3641347.8498583552320.7858405514950.40413748959512162113126WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:02FORECAST2026133-15133.99819.7626.87959.41643265742200.545.936.47TT1.998164.99841347.6346004254920.6552078255710.48341200562654162113126WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:03FORECAST2026133-15133.58419.52626.55559.33882215895200.525.936.45TF1.584163.58441347.5852605775320.6252999624830.46318643659402162113126WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2026133-15133.99820.87627.43759.92961759754900.525.936.45TF1.998165.99841347.9606062892920.8531460739280.48341200562654162113126WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:03FORECAST2026133-15134.03422.60428.31959.71014330053100.535.936.46TT2.034166.03441347.8212350528820.7684557879750.48517352354348162113126WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15133.8921.8327.8659.89842114650300.585.936.51TT1.89166.8941347.9408005605720.8411046060280.47812953145515162113126WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:04FORECAST2026133-15134.55621.41627.98660.6450616487700.646.987.62TT2.556161.55641348.4143906866621.1296122025110.51073066034874163113127.5WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026133-15134.62821.86628.24760.59044733077400.856.987.83TT2.628161.62841348.3797795506221.1084866839680.5142546918651163113127.5WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:23FORECAST2026133-15134.5221.81228.16660.89587740507800.936.987.91TT2.52161.5241348.5732803705421.226675748130.50896831317813163113127.5WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2026133-15133.60221.93827.7761.3165058063100.826.987.8TT1.602162.60241348.8395178263221.3896203202680.46406421299555162113126WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2026133-15133.69221.72227.70761.90744662618901.076.968.03TT1.692162.69241349.213074617821.6188897780690.46845563412233162114128WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:17FORECAST2026133-15133.63820.89427.26661.62586939991101.056.988.03TT1.638161.63841349.0351485788421.5095944822990.46582028638425162114128WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:10FORECAST2026133-15133.40421.0227.21262.7912054770090.1192914031.38929140378.389291403TT1.404153.40441349.770687882521.9625231326650.45441922799104162114128WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2026133-15132.9921.4727.2362.4907610962230.1192914031.3692914037.018.379291403TT0.99150.9941349.5812610070121.8455990653050.43434561070935162114128WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026133-15133.56620.98427.27562.1800678222630.1192914031.2792914037.018.289291403TT1.566150.56641349.3852202198321.7247966893650.46230883938707162114128WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026133-15133.83620.51627.17660.19392023258801.266.958.21TT1.836150.83641348.1283414667820.9552096169540.47548967635582162114128WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026133-15134.10620.87627.49159.40682605904200.946.837.77TT2.106153.10641347.6284936850620.6515054575160.48869739314435162113126WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15134.08822.24428.16659.42857913327900.896.817.7TT2.088152.08841347.6423215066720.6598892137360.48781633226121162113126WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2026133-15133.51223.34228.42761.08801517730400.966.667.62TT1.512145.51241348.6949295882821.3010811509380.45967716538252162113126WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026133-15132.84624.22428.53561.27583080831600.996.597.58TT0.846143.84641348.8137849391321.3738544695390.42740028312474162113126WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2026133-15132.48622.17227.32962.16521923730501.136.517.64TT0.486142.48641349.3758472073121.7190261378620.41013962432393162114128WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2026133-15128.81422.44225.62862.0368141175090.3303151391.6103151396.157.760315139TT-3.186139.81441349.2947780827521.6691352201360.24890520014472161115127.5WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15126.31219.79623.05463.7683605816080.3311025411.9411025416.078.011102541TT-5.688139.31241350.3857747447522.3435264265890.16226836516619161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026133-15127.46420.8424.15266.4809016562430.3023623682.5623623686.278.832362368TT-4.536124.46441352.0852504085323.4069449070230.19941994402022161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026133-15128.43621.54224.98966.6149600514310.3023623682.4423623686.338.772362368TT-3.564123.43641352.1689381278823.4597197447430.23442636648448161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026133-15128.50821.66825.08868.8291941463020.3027560692.3727560696.388.752756069TT-3.492122.50841353.5470885119924.3343611950520.23714785283066161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2026133-15130.219.41824.80965.678515065790.094488242.094488246.178.26448824TT-1.8124.241351.5837538562223.0914988745330.305799588326811621151210WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026133-15130.93819.09425.01664.7450639289780.094488242.094488246.238.32448824TT-1.062123.93841350.9990535607622.7254561618020.338265784443181621151210WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:06FORECAST2026133-15130.99219.34625.16965.377198399570.094488242.184488246.188.36448824TT-1.008125.99241351.3951649547922.9732314158990.340693114463031621151210WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2026133-15129.6619.4924.57562.69196275497101.367.3TT-2.34120.6641349.7081324264321.9238892131880.2829566017475162114128WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026133-15129.35418.7724.06262.56551432696801.326.037.35TT-2.646121.35441349.6284056062221.8746810200710.27038618280336162114128WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:03FORECAST2026133-15128.05818.0523.05463.71498711346901.56.057.55TT-3.942119.05841350.3522173108922.3226870111390.2204253033643161114126WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026133-15128.79620.51624.65661.70239596189301.026.687.7TT-3.204121.79641349.0835175973221.539289426560.24820512139264161114126WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026133-15129.51620.85825.18761.95893990084401.026.677.69TT-2.484123.51641349.2455989793221.6388870777940.27700629435397162114128WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15128.0420.85824.44963.17745353971401.256.557.8TT-3.96124.0441350.014000753422.1129932708470.21977073926768161114126WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026133-15128.0418.523.2759.8417239101940.0598425521.3098425526.027.329842552TT-3.96119.0441347.9048010991520.8192230544060.21977073926768161114126WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026133-15128.81420.31824.56661.5914539430880.0566929441.25669294467.256692944TT-3.186120.81441349.013393042221.4962423230790.24890520014472161114126WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:07FORECAST2026133-15130.63221.23625.93458.9322610733030.0122047311.2422047315.977.212204731TT-1.368126.63241347.3266357542720.4687439759820.32463999775859162114128WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:04FORECAST2026133-15130.4722.4626.46559.1903339537280.0653543661.3153543665.967.275354366TT-1.53125.4741347.4908340542420.568098513530.31751874475635162114128WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2026133-15130.54222.53226.53758.6854294921140.0653543661.3153543665.757.065354366TT-1.458122.54241347.1694889716120.3737905668570.32067562292497162114128WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15129.96622.83826.40258.2303234204320.0653543661.1653543665.626.785354366TT-2.034121.96641346.8794845818720.1989045751150.29580070076692162114128WETL
2026-02-01 23:00:04FORECAST2026133-15132.79225.57429.18356.5887250328890.0834646121.1834646125.676.853464612TT0.792109.79241345.8306292381519.5701143859090.42480145453388162114128WETL
2026-02-01 19:00:05FORECAST2026133-15133.63826.70830.17355.2414542464580.0818898081.1318898085.726.851889808TT1.638109.63841344.9665531414619.0564540619220.46582028638425162114128WETL
2026-02-01 15:00:04FORECAST2026133-15132.5425.53829.03957.0251064900720.1086614761.3386614765.77.038661476TT0.54110.5441346.1098703871619.7369522160930.4127185133485162114128WETL
2026-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2026133-15140.56824.6232.59459.1021939726120.3381891592.0181891595.017.028189159TT8.568128.56841347.4347672882320.5341570090980.777835295288991641151215WETL
2026-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026133-15140.56823.39631.98257.7847529987520.3370080562.0270080564.616.637008056TT8.568125.56841346.5952315757720.0279198471510.777835295288991641151215WETL
2026-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2026133-15139.3824.92632.15355.988255010950.3507875911.8007875914.436.230787591TT7.38128.3841345.445881249619.3409120918850.732058279759191641151215WETL
2026-01-31 23:00:04FORECAST2026133-15132.52223.64828.08559.06028066753201.314.565.87TF0.522109.52241347.4081013915220.5180199743580.41185845921649162114128WETL
2026-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2026133-15123.8118.89621.35359.64665983970201.314.145.45TF-8.1998.8141347.7809071032520.7439694647310.098064682299506161114126WETL
2026-01-31 15:00:04FORECAST2026133-15129.67823.926.78958.7219094621440.0586614491.2786614494.15.378661449TF-2.322105.67841347.1927203647820.3878194911760.28370467832026162114128WETL
2026-01-31 11:00:11FORECAST2026133-15128.86826.13227.560.71246900372801.824.476.29TT-3.132111.86841348.4571026292621.1556910425080.251011717218731621151210WETL
2026-01-31 07:00:24FORECAST2026133-15128.86826.13227.560.55833847472201.824.446.26TT-3.132114.86841348.3594287263121.0960681956680.251011717218731621151210WETL
2026-01-31 03:00:06FORECAST2026133-15128.70628.34628.52661.587541510201.854.536.38TT-3.294115.70641349.0109196994621.4947245045040.24472051200118161115127.5WETL