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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 9, 2026

[ Sunday, February 8, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 10, 2026 ]

DAY 132 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/10/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.64°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.355
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 170

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.30 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.42 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.61 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 40
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.20 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -152

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-10 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026132-15230.8699623.6400827.2550263.5448204166670.300000000000011.425.196.61TT-1.13004169.8699640349.30231965634 22.1963531736870.3554380732875516 2114128WETL
2026-02-10 03:00:43OBSERVATION2026132-15230.8699623.6400827.2550263.5448204166670.300000000000011.425.196.61TT-1.13004169.8699640349.30231965634 22.1963531736870.3554380732875516 2114128WETL
2026-02-09 11:00:02FORECAST2026132-15225.6119.77822.69459.4340945593380.334645851.454645855.196.64464585TT-6.39164.6140346.6930524056420.6053876597420.17805604565731161114126WETL
2026-02-09 07:01:01FORECAST2026132-15225.35818.01421.68660.267254399270.4940947551.6140947555.196.804094755TT-6.642164.35840347.2241009702920.9262432267340.17124399961521161115127.5WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026132-15225.9717.2421.60559.6306393731010.3566931061.4766931065.196.666693106TT-6.03164.9740346.8184296011320.681004703490.1880787211281161114126WETL
2026-02-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026132-15226.31217.92422.11859.7574709490530.4122049471.3522049475.196.542204947TT-5.688162.31240346.8993030546720.7298250245360.19791536174192161114126WETL
2026-02-08 19:00:01FORECAST2026132-15226.63618.96822.80259.4480190574220.3437009731.2837009735.196.473700973TT-5.364162.63640346.701936992420.6107433575690.20751460994976161114126WETL
2026-02-08 15:00:02FORECAST2026132-15225.98820.24623.11759.3617493589520.3232285211.2632285215.196.453228521TT-6.012161.98840346.646887177120.5775656326680.18858880969326161114126WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:03FORECAST2026132-15227.51822.15424.83659.9633687975490.3216537171.2616537175.196.451653717TT-4.482163.51840347.0305372140420.8091200869770.23499779538295161114126WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:03FORECAST2026132-15227.55421.99224.77359.7457641005310.4137797511.2737797515.196.463779751TT-4.446163.55440346.8918393387720.7253180015340.23616063527987161114126WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2026132-15227.55421.57824.56659.9330579465030.4295277911.3195277915.196.509527791TT-4.446164.55440347.0112221405520.7974436846360.23616063527987161114126WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:03FORECAST2026132-15228.86822.87425.87160.691604848770.5500002972.4300002975.197.620000297TT-3.132158.86840347.4941464631621.0899774244030.280691968162841621151210WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026132-15229.17422.69425.93460.6381713307740.4846459312.6446459315.197.834645931TT-2.826159.17440347.4601587899621.0693486393230.291615670361491621151210WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:13FORECAST2026132-15229.46222.29825.8860.9444870050780.5838585832.7238585835.197.913858583TT-2.538159.46240347.6549356758921.187651709550.302074139428081621151210WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.8422.13625.98861.341696206310.3610238172.6110238175.197.801023817TT-2.16160.8440347.9072834471821.3412228891790.316050168452831621151210WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.53422.3725.95261.9293898261890.3929135982.8429135985.198.032913598TT-2.466160.53440348.2801796353921.5687790133750.304714815347381621151210WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:16FORECAST2026132-15228.86821.77625.32261.6514533999110.4326773992.8426773995.198.032677399TT-3.132159.86840348.1038961786821.4611111335870.280691968162841621151210WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:09FORECAST2026132-15227.96821.59624.78262.3195132606960.4102364423.0802364425.198.270236442TT-4.032151.96840348.5274087795821.7200584731550.24975812741971621151210WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2026132-15227.87822.22625.05262.0333273490930.4547246553.0747246555.198.264724655TT-4.122149.87840348.3460708964421.6090658466890.24676728033365161115127.5WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026132-15227.69821.8324.76461.7331883899120.456693162.976693165.198.16669316TT-4.302148.69840348.1557501842721.4927645151570.24084348639021161115127.5WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026132-15227.96821.68624.82760.2207834325880.4236222763.0236222765.198.213622276TT-4.032148.96840347.1945103795120.9083254185480.24975812741971621151210WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026132-15228.11221.8324.97159.4417580590420.3157482022.5757482025.197.765748202TT-3.888151.11240346.6979421739520.6083351982720.254583172240771621151210WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2026132-15228.1322.15425.14259.4629207332790.267716682.507716685.197.69771668TT-3.87150.1340346.7114447236320.6164751549220.255189712686771621151210WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.58823.50426.54661.1158623773040.4551183562.4251183565.197.615118356TT-2.412143.58840347.7638420073221.2538871079220.306702025264421621151210WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2026132-15228.81424.02626.4261.2881308083160.4720474992.3920474995.197.582047499TT-3.186142.81440347.8732680964721.3205023598130.278784976285791621151210WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2026132-15228.11222.78425.44862.1704344373050.5161420112.4461420115.197.636142011TT-3.888142.11240348.4329634212521.6622287081770.254583172240771621151210WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2026132-15228.32823.8126.06960.487235776780.3417324682.2417324685.197.431732468TT-3.672143.32840347.3641276816321.0110958914740.261911129529741621151210WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2026132-15228.38223.46825.92561.8584170113560.437008112.487008115.197.67700811TT-3.618145.38240348.2351763770521.5412767583550.263759851482041621151210WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026132-15227.60823.21625.41264.5332936230360.6767720193.3367720195.198.526772019TT-4.392128.60840349.9256964173222.5818577131440.23791081249797161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026132-15226.70822.29824.50364.7016609829010.6767720193.2767720195.198.466772019TT-5.292126.70840350.0317207230722.6476337274860.20968448016662161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026132-15226.67223.12624.89966.9563049302170.6905515543.2605515545.198.450551554TT-5.328125.67240351.4471548812323.5316028690850.20859788503946161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2026132-15227.71621.52424.6265.1435147321290.4137797512.9837797515.198.173779751TT-4.284125.71640350.3097493593622.82040831820.24143236862258161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026132-15227.46421.9224.69264.2082694534160.4137797513.0437797515.198.233779751TT-4.536125.46440349.7208938794622.4549733877020.23325947279632161115127.5WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2026132-15227.37421.27224.32364.8278872078290.4082679373.0782679375.198.268267937TT-4.626127.37440350.111178176822.6969679690450.23037816594978161115127.5WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026132-15228.11220.55224.33262.6919627549710.1118110842.1118110845.197.301811084TT-3.888123.11240348.7632091124121.864650115980.254583172240771621151210WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026132-15225.23220.26422.74862.5655143269680.1165354962.1565354965.197.346535496TT-6.768124.23240348.6831787539321.8155424159020.16790116214636161115127.5WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026132-15225.48419.79622.6463.7149871134690.2043308192.3643308195.197.554330819TT-6.516123.48440349.4097461756222.26263747490.1746289829827161115127.5WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026132-15226.07821.39823.73861.7023959618930.0614173562.5014173565.27.701417356TT-5.922125.07840348.1362162315121.4808386625920.19115199660519161115127.5WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026132-15226.4221.81224.11661.9589399008440.0618110572.4918110575.27.691811057TT-5.58126.4240348.2989146944821.5802315230840.20108496513107161115127.5WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026132-15225.80821.5623.68463.1774535397140.255905652.605905655.197.79590565TT-6.192127.80840349.0702419501922.0533689929050.18352624431718161115127.5WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026132-15226.92419.8523.38759.4229950936080.3173230062.3773230064.897.267323006TT-5.076122.92440346.6859701180320.6011187013460.21627346512392161115127.5WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.01222.42425.71861.1730282713490.2937009462.3137009464.897.203700946TT-2.988124.01240347.8001594836321.2759889888720.285807872553021621151210WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:06FORECAST2026132-15231.0123.927.45558.8255744153990.366141932.306141934.897.19614193TT-0.99128.0140346.3044763841720.3715597459230.3609267077961621151210WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.2123.41426.31259.1234496806620.2582678562.3182678564.897.208267856TT-2.79127.2140346.4947623612720.485965647080.292913717867811621151210WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2026132-15227.87822.47825.17858.6854294921140.2582678562.3182678564.686.998267856TT-4.122123.87840346.2149004602220.3177701300770.24676728033365161115127.5WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026132-15228.14822.49625.32258.1605016419110.2566930522.1666930524.556.716693052TT-3.852124.14840345.8791006899420.116502003580.255797006849091621151210WETL
2026-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026132-15230.4723.64827.05956.3091419463750.1984253042.2784253044.496.768425304TT-1.53109.4740344.6911932471719.4092653282210.339929848264831621151210WETL
2026-02-01 19:00:05FORECAST2026132-15231.44227.78829.61554.8363090862160.1921260882.1921260884.586.772126088TT-0.558108.44240343.7421662033418.8495516718920.378034938166941621151210WETL
2026-02-01 15:00:04FORECAST2026132-15230.41626.07828.24756.2863541205540.2484253312.3784253314.556.928425331TT-1.584110.41640344.6765368244219.4005856087460.337855923164061621151210WETL
2026-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2026132-15231.60424.69228.14858.4670497269440.2031497162.2931497164.46.693149716TT-0.396119.60440346.075255884820.2339991950820.384514773771131621151210WETL
2026-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026132-15230.45223.46826.9657.1034152436030.2051182212.3051182213.996.295118221TT-1.548117.45240345.2015154625619.712185480180.339237997977991621151210WETL
2026-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2026132-15233.99825.75429.87655.3119470356230.1177165992.0677165993.815.877716599TT1.998120.99840344.0490340610219.030021949640.483088124687341621151210WETL
2026-01-31 23:00:04FORECAST2026132-15232.10826.9629.53459.0631342675320.2098426332.0498426333.825.869842633TT0.108109.10840346.4562438394520.4627916477140.404873777651811621151210WETL
2026-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2026132-15229.7524.4427.09559.6466598397020.2098426332.0498426333.45.449842633TF-2.25106.7540346.828646400820.6871702945330.312697621399831621151210WETL
2026-01-31 15:00:04FORECAST2026132-15230.14624.58427.36558.5901878805090.1314961341.9614961343.365.321496134TF-1.854108.14640346.1540070230220.281228307070.327560998555961621151210WETL
2026-01-31 11:00:11FORECAST2026132-15238.9323.19831.06460.7124690037280.1200788052.9100788053.386.290078805TT6.93114.9340347.5074163581321.0980332442080.682674723308191631151212.5WETL
2026-01-31 07:00:23FORECAST2026132-15238.9323.19831.06460.5583384747220.1200788052.9100788053.356.260078805TT6.93117.9340347.4093705882421.0385342533730.682674723308191631151212.5WETL
2026-01-31 03:00:06FORECAST2026132-15236.2322.58629.40861.58754151020.1311024332.9411024333.446.381102433TT4.23119.2340348.0633419368221.4363655197130.576063883331431631151212.5WETL
2026-01-30 23:00:04FORECAST2026132-15231.6427.46429.55257.6360070866470.2169292511.6269292514.436.056929251TT-0.36112.6440345.5431306299219.9157263257280.385959200242951621151210WETL
2026-01-30 19:00:04FORECAST2026132-15231.6428.18429.91255.8158208405940.2169292511.6269292514.35.926929251TT-0.36117.6440344.3737147314819.2215015636620.385959200242951621151210WETL
2026-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2026132-15232.77428.38230.57855.1881352671650.2188977561.6888977564.235.918897756TT0.774117.77440343.969189974918.9830181840720.432167766756571621151210WETL
2026-01-30 11:00:04FORECAST2026132-15224.9823.3624.1759.2971722043310.4102364421.8002364423.895.690236442TF-7.02109.9840346.6056717607620.5527362053960.16134211456782161115127.5WETL
2026-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2026132-15224.9823.3624.1759.0755310220530.4102364421.8002364423.865.660236442TF-7.02116.9840346.4641611145620.4675542979530.16134211456782161115127.5WETL
2026-01-30 03:00:06FORECAST2026132-15232.05431.33431.69451.11760909609200.773.754.52TF0.054000000000002137.05440341.3301454632217.4479809485010.40267903020538162113126WETL