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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 8, 2026

[ Saturday, February 7, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, February 9, 2026 ]

DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/09/2026 07:00:53 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.458
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 177

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.38 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.31 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.01 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-09 07:00:53OBSERVATION2026131-15332.8699426.1899629.5299558.0346608333330.381.125.196.31TT0.86994176.8699439344.83872489442 20.0125984414470.4579399622374616 2114128WETL
2026-02-09 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026131-15332.8699426.1899629.5299558.0346608333330.381.125.196.31TT0.86994176.8699439344.83872489442 20.0125984414470.4579399622374616 2114128WETL
2026-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2026131-15330.43423.41426.92458.6577321685740.1992127060.9392127065.196.129212706TF-1.566174.43439345.2389032250520.2509311195470.35249164797629162113126WETL
2026-02-08 07:00:03FORECAST2026131-15330.4723.1826.82558.07079743820.1240158150.8640158155.196.054015815TF-1.53174.4739344.8619515577220.0264085330510.35399092867875162113126WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15330.59623.41427.00558.1818299063230.1511811840.8911811845.196.081181184TF-1.404174.59639344.9333039109520.0688508171730.35925611877366162113126WETL
2026-02-07 23:00:01FORECAST2026131-15330.99224.40427.69858.3576589718650.0877953231.8777953235.197.067795323TT-1.008167.99239345.0462550871220.1360916838930.375974365591751621151210WETL
2026-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026131-15331.3724.6227.99558.9279537574710.3669293322.1569293325.197.346929332TT-0.63168.3739345.4122609119820.3544377382850.392153287980991621151210WETL
2026-02-07 15:00:05FORECAST2026131-15331.1924.38627.78858.8222769686690.3492127872.1392127875.197.329212787TT-0.81168.1939345.3444792980220.3139486108690.384423869614931621151210WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:03FORECAST2026131-15331.89224.38628.13960.1589547503510.4610238712.2510238715.197.441023871TT-0.108168.89239346.2004921218520.8270597401080.414799950230291621151210WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2026131-15332.3624.49428.42760.4146528345440.6799216272.4499216275.197.639921627TT0.36169.3639346.3639111161520.9254554444970.435349859870341621151210WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:16FORECAST2026131-15332.01825.32228.6759.9208178644080.6169294672.4069294675.197.596929467TT0.018000000000001169.01839346.0482011685820.7354912345280.420312173613031621151210WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:09FORECAST2026131-15333.0826.99630.03860.4918662067880.8570870772.6670870775.197.857087077TT1.08162.0839346.413238031120.9551832472370.467289459082731621151210WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2026131-15332.55826.47429.51660.0954719940.795276022.615276025.197.80527602TT0.558159.55839346.1599032600720.8026427718110.444100276159441621151210WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026131-15331.4626.629.0359.691965552780.7031499862.5231499865.197.713149986TT-0.54159.4639345.9017609704420.6475560004930.396034221985811621151210WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026131-15331.3726.92429.14758.3199827245980.8421264392.6021264395.197.792126439TT-0.63159.3739345.0220564155120.1216803697580.392153287980991621151210WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026131-15330.93825.98828.46358.2371015707320.6153546632.2553546635.197.445354663TT-1.062160.93839344.968815419620.0899839423260.373680042970511621151210WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2026131-15330.99225.84428.41858.4806536182690.618110572.238110575.197.42811057TT-1.008159.99239345.1252358780720.1831493743090.375974365591751621151210WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15332.77426.6929.73259.4403287831180.4988191671.9688191675.197.158819167TT0.774151.77439345.7406429480420.5509374905180.453677212859151621151210WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2026131-15332.61225.93429.27359.5227338972150.5161420111.9161420115.197.106142011TT0.612151.61239345.7934166451420.5825695223780.446491675303311621151210WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2026131-15332.97225.41229.19259.6840113220610.6145672611.9345672615.197.124567261TT0.972151.97239345.8966696105820.6445007453010.462479936986041621151210WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2026131-15332.4525.89829.17458.8468086877560.9444886991.9044886995.197.094488699TT0.45153.4539345.360215685320.3233465407950.439323663601091621151210WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2026131-15331.89225.84428.86859.6885689073851.173228982.053228985.197.24322898TT-0.108154.89239345.8995868514720.646251324820.414799950230291621151210WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15331.0125.84428.42760.8870049223831.582678022.662678025.197.85267802TT-0.99139.0139346.6655166864221.1074250209060.376740119275351621151210WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026131-15330.6525.98828.31960.9948845796471.4610244112.6010244115.197.791024411TT-1.35137.6539346.7343491039321.1490216033940.361520902326141621151210WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026131-15330.45226.25828.35563.1690498175751.3807094072.5707094075.197.760709407TT-1.548137.45239348.1175583781821.9902553875640.353241003751351621151210WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:05FORECAST2026131-15330.27225.35827.81562.8595318581091.5921268442.5721268445.197.762126844TT-1.728136.27239347.92110830121.8701579913560.345773486357731621151210WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026131-15329.89424.96227.42861.9244369064371.5921268442.6321268445.197.822126844TT-2.106135.89439347.326667480921.5080083063440.330288332930221621151210WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15330.03824.65627.34762.5275773199671.6751977552.6651977555.197.855197755TT-1.962138.03839347.7102460837721.7414792969480.336155027890681621151210WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026131-15330.68624.67427.6862.045572401621.1901581232.0001581235.197.190158123TT-1.314132.68639347.4037530660621.5548647134550.36303346251331621151210WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026131-15331.92823.91827.92361.8565328877481.2043313592.0443313595.197.234331359TT-0.071999999999999136.92839347.2834458155721.4817498874610.416373210656021621151210WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026131-15331.24423.05427.14962.4187831351241.3027566092.1627566095.197.352756609TT-0.756136.24439347.6410997869221.6993344164560.386738030394771621151210WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026131-15330.59622.71226.65461.3357743224220.9614178422.4514178425.197.641417842TT-1.404136.59639346.9517292570521.2805529664840.359256118773661621151210WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026131-15331.06422.6426.85261.5930491321170.9622052442.4422052445.197.632205244TT-0.936138.06439347.115664865321.3799122005760.379040279508181621151210WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15331.3722.69427.03261.5563235495560.9897643142.3497643145.197.539764314TT-0.63140.3739347.0922698640921.3657240653040.392153287980991621151210WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15331.24423.57627.4157.3028556811960.9334650712.0634650714.896.953465071TT-0.756134.24439344.3679009255719.7332641279750.386738030394771621151210WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2026131-15329.6625.03427.34759.2616743174640.9066934032.0166934034.896.906693403TT-2.34132.6639345.626191518220.4823867973370.32084378361941621151210WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:05FORECAST2026131-15330.50626.25828.38256.5763618068620.8645673961.9445673964.896.834567396TT-1.494134.50639343.8996276344119.456589758290.35549247551581621151210WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026131-15330.39826.99628.69757.499067383230.9909454172.0609454174.896.950945417TT-1.602136.39839344.4942241948919.8080966101160.350994654318141621151210WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2026131-15329.22823.70226.46557.7861786196860.9909454172.0609454174.686.740945417TT-2.772134.22839344.6789561675219.9176797275430.30371205762921621151210WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15329.26423.95426.60957.3707675736920.8440949441.9140949444.556.464094944TT-2.736134.26439344.411630479319.7591596019040.305124047258151621151210WETL
2026-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15329.73224.5327.13155.0581401167860.8952760742.0752760744.496.565276074TT-2.268116.73239342.9182392533618.8804404654130.323737843281711621151210WETL
2026-02-01 19:00:04FORECAST2026131-15332.34228.02230.18253.579567800710.8586618811.9986618814.586.578661881TT0.342115.34239341.9588360360118.3220066404430.434555868641031621151210WETL
2026-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026131-15333.49428.3130.90254.6436436995730.9834650982.1334650984.556.683465098TT1.494118.49439342.6496477620418.7236252660930.485764103465011621151210WETL
2026-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2026131-15333.72829.42631.57757.1611078133421.4846464712.0946464714.46.494646471TT1.728125.72839344.2766028995419.6792320159520.496222384039061621151210WETL
2026-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026131-15333.49428.54431.01955.7419150507721.4771661522.0971661523.996.087166152TT1.494125.49439343.3607042551319.1395832083630.485764103465011621151210WETL
2026-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15334.1628.2231.1954.8930725988641.3275597721.9475597723.815.757559772TT2.16125.1639342.8113102546318.8179661415190.515531472881671631151212.5WETL
2026-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15333.85428.56231.20857.9977804378021.0972446871.8372446873.825.657244687TF1.854114.85439344.8150179642519.9985057035480.501855299883051631151212.5WETL
2026-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2026131-15332.95426.76229.85857.8497788246571.0972446871.8372446873.45.237244687TF0.954114.95439344.7198593357319.9419676190390.461678863821091621151210WETL
2026-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2026131-15332.4525.98829.21957.5380880527621.0885832651.8285832653.365.188583265TF0.45116.4539344.519338630419.8229840419960.439323663601091621151210WETL
2026-01-31 11:00:11FORECAST2026131-15331.5523.86427.70759.7221245037341.6976387122.7876387123.386.167638712TT-0.45113.5539345.921064237520.6591408668560.399925485648361621151210WETL
2026-01-31 07:00:23FORECAST2026131-15331.5523.86427.70759.5679939747281.6976387122.7876387123.356.137638712TT-0.45116.5539345.8223973025920.5999464788470.399925485648361621151210WETL
2026-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15332.19823.25227.72560.3970455898881.7153552572.8053552573.446.245355257TT0.198121.19839346.3526615666620.9186774908210.428213700601731621151210WETL
2026-01-30 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15332.46828.11230.2955.6204308114560.6901578531.4101578534.435.840157853TF0.468119.46839343.2821489535519.0935010146790.44011917179786162114128WETL
2026-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2026131-15333.04428.11230.57853.8563352717890.6901578531.4101578534.35.710157853TF1.044124.04439342.1386967278118.4263363604260.4656857193553162114128WETL
2026-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2026131-15333.06228.18430.62353.2218997811230.6937011621.4737011624.235.703701162TF1.062123.06239341.7262137841718.1873183026040.46648752120472162114128WETL
2026-01-30 11:00:04FORECAST2026131-15333.94426.67230.30854.7828317531380.8862209511.3862209513.895.276220951TF1.944122.94439342.7398724234318.7762607660650.505878650226961631141210WETL
2026-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2026131-15335.54626.67231.10954.561190570860.8665359011.3865359013.865.246535901TF3.546129.54639342.5961848408718.6924557299520.577013515142731631141210WETL
2026-01-30 03:00:06FORECAST2026131-15346.81430.90238.85851.1179042960920.3244096240.7744096243.754.524409624TF14.814142.81439340.3535183434717.398158577520.927557841223911651131210.5WETL
2026-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2026131-15336.28430.27233.27847.041757643264003.833.83TF4.284129.28439337.6731820103515.884739990760.60909497429078163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2026131-15336.62630.27233.44947.27639445076003.863.86TF4.626128.62639337.8282251307415.9713004278810.62372789912768163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-29 15:00:04FORECAST2026131-15337.05832.934.97947.17826065653003.933.93TF5.058131.05839337.7633916025815.935089329260.64195812280233163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-29 11:00:05FORECAST2026131-15335.79833.11634.45749.663413887771003.173.17FF3.798128.79839339.4002774247116.8557764513670.58803718475502163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-29 07:00:06FORECAST2026131-15335.79833.11634.45750.069718055659003.443.44FF3.798122.79839339.6669147817717.0070266559590.58803718475502163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:05FORECAST2026131-15332.79231.67632.23449.933355637952003.263.26FF0.792116.79239339.5774575393516.9562419539440.45447658669798162111122DRYL