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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 7, 2026

[ Friday, February 6, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, February 8, 2026 ]

DAY 130 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/08/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.81°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 190

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.74 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.93 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 38
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -154

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-08 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026130-15440.6299231.8099236.2199257.6573650.739999999999990.739999999999995.195.93TF8.62992189.6299238343.63170605833 19.8128987017780.8027364228477116 4113129WETL
2026-02-08 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026130-15440.6299231.8099236.2199257.6573650.739999999999990.739999999999995.195.93TF8.62992189.6299238343.63170605833 19.8128987017780.8027364228477116 4113129WETL
2026-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.78230.52432.15358.5513857606551.7929143541.7929143545.196.982914354TT1.782182.78238344.2084466547920.1538815421610.480864414086371621151210WETL
2026-02-07 07:00:03FORECAST2026130-15434.14231.5532.84658.203595377161.7724419021.7724419025.196.962441902TT2.142183.14238343.9842396726720.0211195020280.499718729669011631151212.5WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:16FORECAST2026130-15434.21431.53232.87357.9187681060311.7885836431.7885836435.196.978583643TT2.214183.21438343.8004749892719.9124999856470.503491016901211631151212.5WETL
2026-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026130-15434.59231.40632.99958.84295361.8082686931.8082686935.196.998268693TT2.592174.59238344.3962565789520.2652929458890.523282571083171631151212.5WETL
2026-02-06 19:00:01FORECAST2026130-15433.42231.40632.41458.9246417092421.8169301151.8169301155.197.006930115TT1.422173.42238344.4488500558820.2965250767030.462052815419251621151210WETL
2026-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.76431.51432.63958.89156321.8173238161.8173238165.197.007323816TT1.764173.76438344.4275543443120.2838770844890.479922470522491621151210WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.63831.8232.72958.13073441.7594497691.7594497695.196.949449769TT1.638173.63838343.9372439260719.9933245769350.47333229827091621151210WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026130-15433.63830.79432.21658.0260975954381.6381898611.6381898615.196.828189861TT1.638175.63838343.8697373733819.9534189409450.47333229827091621151210WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2026130-15433.51229.5731.54158.046379390771.6169300071.6169300075.196.806930007TT1.512174.51238343.8828235983819.9611528445610.466749416833481621151210WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:02FORECAST2026130-15434.21430.27232.24359.02200241.4657488231.4657488235.196.655748823TT2.214165.21438344.5115198013120.3337597485410.503491016901211631141210WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:02FORECAST2026130-15435.0631.22633.14359.0342041.4000007561.4000007565.196.590000756TT3.06165.0638344.5193727116220.338426930610.547701723737131631141210WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2026130-15435.25830.59632.92759.04463441.3157487421.3157487425.196.505748742TT3.258165.25838344.5260854903820.3424167590430.557984200498121631141210WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2026130-15436.8630.75833.80957.68779680.9578745330.9578745335.196.147874533TF4.86166.8638343.6513594170919.8244897920970.63917473244715163113127.5WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2026130-15436.42832.05434.24157.77048370.8811028380.8811028385.196.071102838TF4.428169.42838343.7047523110619.8559897909980.61772763085429163113127.5WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15435.4231.47833.44959.61143841.0791344411.0791344415.196.269134441TT3.42154.4238344.8906009387620.55942481260.56636849186881631141210WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026130-15434.41229.78632.09959.7181041.1366147871.1366147875.196.326614787TT2.412153.41238344.9591396480920.6003057772550.513862183277641631141210WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.54829.3931.46959.73463521.185040011.185040015.196.37504001TT1.548152.54838344.9697602216320.606642781870.46862939151696162114128WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:04FORECAST2026130-15433.04428.50830.77658.30891760.9838587990.9838587995.196.173858799TF1.044152.04438344.0521577372220.0613089156020.44239234143248162113126WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026130-15432.32429.60630.96558.5718364166671.0448824541.0448824545.196.234882454TT0.324152.32438344.2216242356120.1616926658080.40537252101592162114128WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15432.93628.54430.7458.5460556166670.9929139220.9929139225.196.182913922TF0.936153.93638344.2050120117720.1518457767770.43679887613659162114128WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026130-15432.82830.25431.54160.52766080.8125988640.8125988645.196.002598864TF0.828147.82838345.4787210475620.9110188411840.43121801682154162113126WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:03FORECAST2026130-15432.930.30831.60460.3577240.8401579340.8401579345.196.030157934TF0.9150.938345.3697425419720.8457315982990.43493713497829162113126WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026130-15432.7230.23631.47860.50010880.8594492830.8594492835.196.049449283TF0.72150.7238345.4610554632920.9004314416920.42565085481846162113126WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.2631.06432.16259.67079361.4818905641.4918905645.196.681890564TT1.26152.2638344.9287423191920.5821717896360.45361268731203162114128WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026130-15433.87230.57832.22559.2584168833331.4673236271.4773236275.196.667323627TT1.872152.87238344.6636320804120.4242211943450.48557562960846162114128WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15434.73630.95632.84659.3357592833331.3559062441.3559062445.196.545906244TT2.736154.73638344.7133754017220.4538298645820.530809776914271631141210WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15435.02429.64232.33354.77932881.1271659631.1271659634.896.017165963TF3.024149.02438341.7661404056518.7217197779880.545828533244561631141210WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2026130-15433.45829.98431.72154.83492481.1145675311.1145675314.896.004567531TF1.458149.45838341.8023074978118.7427038281090.46393085816977162114128WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:05FORECAST2026130-15434.73630.63232.68454.53077041.0846462551.0846462554.895.974646255TF2.736149.73638341.6043822242418.6279501347040.530809776914271631141210WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026130-15435.29430.84833.07154.9777452480991.070866721.070866724.895.96086672TF3.294152.29438341.8951936564118.7966268583910.559849758993831631141210WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2026130-15434.86229.37232.11754.763267677741.070866721.070866724.685.75086672TF2.862150.86238341.7556911475418.7156583947040.537387153178591631141210WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2026130-15434.8829.37232.12655.2439427890151.0732289261.0732289264.555.623228926TF2.88150.8838342.0682306898118.8971977661670.538325986766951631141210WETL
2026-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15434.10630.07432.0953.592793935051.1775596911.1775596914.495.667559691TF2.106133.10638340.9930401501718.2747697340540.49783257440314162114128WETL
2026-02-01 19:00:04FORECAST2026130-15433.85430.79432.32453.2266691939331.1429140031.1429140034.585.722914003TF1.854128.85438340.7540166414418.1372013202780.48463320432795162114128WETL
2026-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026130-15433.60231.13632.36953.9251942952881.145669911.145669914.555.69566991TF1.602130.60238341.2098543631518.3998076920.47145065254503162114128WETL
2026-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2026130-15437.3132.25234.78156.7736471634080.614173560.614173564.45.01417356TF5.31138.3138343.0603233994519.4767857564450.66105859379297163113127.5WETL
2026-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026130-15437.45430.68634.0755.5180868916770.618110570.618110573.994.60811057TF5.454138.45438342.2463109995419.0008604324290.66795242211242163113127.5WETL
2026-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15437.63430.18233.90854.9609685988640.622047580.622047583.814.43204758TF5.634136.63438341.8842843707618.7902914177460.67649023840329163113127.5WETL
2026-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15435.40230.1132.75658.0413716378020.7389767770.7389767773.824.558976777TF3.402127.40238343.8795925574519.9592432302830.56543830604958163113127.5WETL
2026-01-31 19:00:03FORECAST2026130-15435.25829.42632.34257.7911219397180.7389767770.7389767773.44.138976777TF3.258128.25838343.7180771636419.8638533102490.55798420049812163113127.5WETL
2026-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2026130-15434.7931.29833.04457.4627246447890.7444885910.7444885913.364.104488591TF2.79129.7938343.5059681668619.7387888626140.53362978775718163113127.5WETL
2026-01-31 11:00:11FORECAST2026130-15435.61830.41633.01756.3970670213621.0913391721.0913391723.384.471339172TF3.618127.61838342.8164491770519.3338422602630.576575179754651631141210WETL
2026-01-31 07:00:22FORECAST2026130-15436.1430.45233.29656.2429364923561.0913391721.0913391723.354.441339172TF4.14131.1438342.7165665736519.275386088680.603221538465191631141210WETL
2026-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15435.97831.42433.70155.2700699746971.0940950791.0940950793.444.534095079TF3.978134.97838342.0852079033918.9070733781290.594997224229941631141210WETL
2026-01-30 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15436.7730.72233.74654.8961143470030.7232287370.7232287374.435.153228737TF4.77132.7738341.842107479418.765803420810.63473996361122163113127.5WETL
2026-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2026130-15437.27431.7334.50253.6243180214280.7232287370.7232287374.35.023228737TF5.274137.27438341.013610169918.2866222813860.659326567598163113127.5WETL
2026-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2026130-15437.20231.62234.41253.2429573811230.779527980.779527984.235.00952798TF5.202136.20238340.7646550638318.1433180065570.65585245591658163113127.5WETL
2026-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2026130-15439.3832.05435.71752.1121381718620.5019687750.5019687753.894.391968775TF7.38135.3838340.0250284525817.7194312646120.75403237877079164113129WETL
2026-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2026130-15441.5433.36837.45451.9691185895840.5212601240.5212601243.864.381260124TF9.54139.5438339.931333261717.6659317705920.83423154895141164113129WETL
2026-01-30 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15441.933.8937.89551.5895354960920.4468506350.4468506353.754.196850635TF9.9141.938339.682495140317.5240621404420.84574106220525164112126WETL
2026-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15444.38434.55639.4747.146160043264003.833.83TF12.384139.38438336.7516999188115.8765495392130.91068785184511165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 19:00:03FORECAST2026130-15445.08634.46639.77647.38876725076003.863.86TF13.086138.08638336.9125757540315.9658716362620.92469796064001165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2026130-15445.01435.3340.17247.31838225653003.933.93TF13.014140.01438336.865912803215.9399500312160.92334290484013165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 11:00:04FORECAST2026130-15447.78633.38640.58649.768013087771003.173.17FF15.786138.78638338.4850407779716.8457279394520.96352846869663165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 07:00:06FORECAST2026130-15448.03832.07240.05550.174317255659003.443.44FF16.038133.03838338.7526221835516.9966815366240.96610710717798165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15444.83432.3638.59749.937685237952003.263.26FF12.834129.83438338.5968160450516.9087412222310.91987448908984165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026130-15432.52230.72231.62250.376982880120.2850395240.4550395244.484.935039524TF0.522109.52238338.8859893273517.0720536826560.41548355441299162112124WETL
2026-01-28 19:00:05FORECAST2026130-15432.52230.70431.61350.4201945741520.2893702350.4593702354.154.609370235TF0.522108.52238338.9144165500817.088130826440.41548355441299162112124WETL
2026-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2026130-15441.7232.01836.86950.2606313750220.2921261420.4621261424.054.512126142TF9.72118.7238338.8094308733817.0287759115080.84005383105856164112126WETL
2026-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2026130-15438.22836.48237.35554.275720463913004.014.01TF6.228125.22838341.4382932520418.5318093602230.70399363979443164111123WETL
2026-01-28 07:00:07FORECAST2026130-15438.22836.48237.35553.623456129601004.514.51TF6.228126.22838341.0130477922518.2862982079090.70399363979443164111123WETL
2026-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2026130-15439.5638.58839.07453.687729636858004.414.41TF7.56131.5638341.0549823736318.3104676849790.76142022678315164111123WETL