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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 6, 2026

[ Thursday, February 5, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 7, 2026 ]

DAY 129 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/07/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.06°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.36°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.972
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 194

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 58 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 342.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-07 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026129-15552.0599240.6500846.35557.909989166667005.195.19TF20.05992194.0599237342.82737219452 19.8531294098210.9720282823745316 5111123.5WETL
2026-02-07 03:00:08OBSERVATION2026129-15552.0599240.6500846.35557.909989166667005.195.19TF20.05992194.0599237342.82737219452 19.8531294098210.9720282823745316 5111123.5WETL
2026-02-06 11:00:01FORECAST2026129-15543.10633.838.45358.2386792005.195.19TF11.106185.10637343.0402364944219.9782102858910.82459840409867164111123WETL
2026-02-06 07:00:04FORECAST2026129-15544.94233.6239.28158.03561315005.195.19TF12.942186.94237342.9087490392119.900919504990.87146259720637165111123.5WETL
2026-02-06 03:00:04FORECAST2026129-15544.13233.09838.61558.00579795005.195.19TF12.132186.13237342.8894376655219.8895754404150.85197710368737165111123.5WETL
2026-02-05 23:00:01FORECAST2026129-15545.33833.54839.44359.1471672005.195.19TF13.338176.33837343.6276625470120.3246028112130.88031246883767165111123.5WETL
2026-02-05 19:00:01FORECAST2026129-15544.07833.40438.74159.1747192005.195.19TF12.078175.07837343.6454564314420.3351233886860.85061143568005165111123.5WETL
2026-02-05 15:00:02FORECAST2026129-15544.07832.8138.44459.1850512005.195.19TF12.078175.07837343.6521288170620.3390688390270.85061143568005165111123.5WETL
2026-02-05 11:00:02FORECAST2026129-15544.40233.00838.70557.8877456005.195.19TF12.402175.40237342.812960525919.8446694473060.85868016596326165111123.5WETL
2026-02-05 03:00:04FORECAST2026129-15544.11433.2638.68758.0079229005.195.19TF12.114178.11437342.8908140489319.8903839044680.85152280992825165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15544.1534.48439.31759.759924005.195.19TF12.15164.1537344.0231047773120.5587945957360.85243046873668165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026129-15545.42833.99839.71359.797808005.195.19TF13.428164.42837344.0475329976220.5732883210650.88226258180299165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026129-15545.24833.69239.4759.7814736005.195.19TF13.248164.24837344.0370005986820.5670388687130.87833975770283165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 11:00:04FORECAST2026129-15544.81632.79238.80458.3393232005.195.19TF12.816163.81637343.1053794369720.0165356226320.86855408905773165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026129-15545.24832.28838.76858.574591616667005.195.19TF13.248165.24837343.2575945744120.1061734215150.87833975770283165111123.5WETL
2026-02-04 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15545.39232.4538.92158.566424416667005.195.19TF13.392166.39237343.2523120423620.1030605890750.88148524379633165111123.5WETL
2026-02-03 23:00:02FORECAST2026129-15543.23233.06238.14760.5518672005.195.19TF11.232160.23237344.5332739387920.8621330495230.82812331711622164111123WETL
2026-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2026129-15543.01632.59437.80560.3752392005.195.19TF11.016163.01637344.4195792254320.7944144808990.82205282185821164111123WETL
2026-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2026129-15543.66433.0838.37260.5157544005.195.19TF11.664162.66437344.5100324268420.8482845106790.83986331158618164111123WETL
2026-02-03 11:00:02FORECAST2026129-15546.36433.60239.98359.7215680.0106299270.0106299275.195.200629927TF14.364164.36437343.9983698088720.5441220344290.90122396568798165111123.5WETL
2026-02-03 07:00:05FORECAST2026129-15544.9633.96239.46159.3514048833330.0106299270.0106299275.195.200629927TF12.96163.9637343.7595356011420.402611379970.87187443446103165111123.5WETL
2026-02-03 03:00:04FORECAST2026129-15544.5132.91838.71459.437012883333005.195.19TF12.51164.5137343.8147909939120.4353241617850.8613030339838165111123.5WETL
2026-02-02 23:00:02FORECAST2026129-15543.95232.55838.25554.8817632004.894.89TF11.952158.95237340.8578668990718.7068807360120.84739235135009164111123WETL
2026-02-02 19:00:02FORECAST2026129-15544.67233.56639.11954.9037064004.894.89TF12.672160.67237340.8721929302518.7151468005660.86517498943244165111123.5WETL
2026-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2026129-15543.89833.40438.65154.6618392004.894.89TF11.898159.89837340.714241263118.6240670690740.84599879701472164111123WETL
2026-02-02 11:00:03FORECAST2026129-15546.05835.31240.68555.161064448099004.894.89TF14.058162.05837341.0401543907818.8121379357390.8952871891242165111123.5WETL
2026-02-02 07:00:04FORECAST2026129-15545.98635.11440.5554.93192527774004.684.68TF13.986160.98637340.8906149821418.7257777900820.89385361898077165111123.5WETL
2026-02-02 03:00:04FORECAST2026129-15546.00435.00640.50555.412009989015004.554.55TF14.004161.00437341.2038251187918.9067897657730.89421332947669165111123.5WETL
2026-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15542.6233.47638.04853.69355553505004.494.49TF10.62143.6237340.0809297129318.2601542859530.81057818248358164111123WETL
2026-02-01 19:00:04FORECAST2026129-15540.31633.4436.87853.311981993933004.584.58TF8.316140.31637339.8309311671418.1170604833640.73526496383351164111123WETL
2026-02-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026129-15540.65833.42237.0454.035697495288004.554.55TF8.658141.65837340.304887618718.3886119635320.74732636074415164111123WETL
2026-02-01 11:00:02FORECAST2026129-15542.87233.8938.38157.146091163408004.44.4TF10.872145.87237342.3319740827219.5629341990810.81793182113239164111123WETL
2026-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2026129-15542.85432.97237.91355.766350091677003.993.99TF10.854145.85437341.4347538648719.0405700174940.81741254282847164111123DRYL
2026-02-01 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15543.2533.2638.25555.213266198864003.813.81TF11.25144.2537341.0742098084318.831821139720.82862316707305164111123DRYL
2026-01-31 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15541.4531.96436.70758.139378037802003.823.82TF9.45137.4537342.9759463953619.9404082053530.77410941196839164111123DRYL
2026-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2026129-15540.8231.71236.26657.914909139718003.43.4FF8.82137.8237342.8305597487619.8550007181680.75293710250249164111123DRYL
2026-01-31 15:00:03FORECAST2026129-15540.65831.76636.21257.553449444789003.363.36FF8.658139.65837342.5962710160519.7175971638950.74732636074415164111123DRYL
2026-01-31 11:00:11FORECAST2026129-15538.71432.16235.43856.502355021362003.383.38FF6.714136.71437341.9137555909219.3189324050850.67514980353396163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-31 07:00:22FORECAST2026129-15538.78631.06434.92556.418580492356003.353.35FF6.786139.78637341.8592791724519.287215259050.67796901126488163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-31 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15540.78433.58437.18455.529944374697003.443.44FF8.784143.78437341.2807077994418.951298720260.75169604989224164111123DRYL
2026-01-30 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15541.933.90837.90455.173110347003004.434.43TF9.9140.937341.0480133041918.8166796716580.78858322422065164111123WETL
2026-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2026129-15543.5233.29638.40853.926701221428004.34.3TF11.52144.5237340.2335624011118.3476736651070.83600947651693164111123WETL
2026-01-30 15:00:04FORECAST2026129-15543.21433.02638.1253.508834181123004.234.23TF11.214144.21437339.9599346233318.1908597699850.8276225394683164111123WETL
2026-01-30 11:00:03FORECAST2026129-15543.08834.9739.02952.647532571862003.893.89TF11.088141.08837339.3950198636717.8683103630010.82409113878612164111123DRYL
2026-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2026129-15546.16635.13240.64952.711251389584003.863.86TF14.166143.16637339.4368544227517.8921413643670.89741125511428165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-30 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15546.7635.22240.99152.390511496092003.753.75TF14.76144.7637339.2262040460117.7722343428480.90853733430243165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15546.65236.19441.42348.036876843264003.833.83TF14.652139.65237336.3498548358816.1571965530010.90658365947827165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2026129-15547.22836.80642.01748.31707285076003.863.86TF15.228138.22837336.5359332905516.2604312056980.91665526728522165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 15:00:03FORECAST2026129-15547.7537.47242.61148.29943025653003.933.93TF15.75139.7537336.5242207320816.2539281288820.92505929283027165111123.5DRYL
2026-01-29 11:00:04FORECAST2026129-15543.30434.6138.95750.595655487771003.173.17FF11.304136.30437338.0442350027617.1035696538260.83011714885407164111123DRYL
2026-01-29 07:00:06FORECAST2026129-15541.50433.06237.28350.832022855659003.443.44FF9.504129.50437338.2001985948317.1914002247610.77587525368356164111123DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15541.1833.02637.10350.497482837952003.263.26FF9.18130.1837337.979429671517.0671104494170.76516335211518164111123DRYL
2026-01-28 23:00:03FORECAST2026129-15537.36429.71433.53950.379836480120.1673229250.1673229254.484.647322925TF5.364122.36437337.9017481462117.0234348179530.62058648871783163112125WETL
2026-01-28 19:00:04FORECAST2026129-15537.29229.71433.50350.4230481741520.1708662340.1708662344.154.320866234TF5.292121.29237337.9302833910717.0394749589330.61759605549908163112125WETL
2026-01-28 15:00:02FORECAST2026129-15537.52630.41633.97150.4070505750220.1708662340.1708662344.054.220866234TF5.526121.52637337.9197195925117.0335363957970.62728840617639163112125WETL
2026-01-28 11:00:03FORECAST2026129-15546.88631.60439.24554.500466063913004.014.01TF14.886131.88637340.6088023595118.5633384740650.91077827885032165111123.5WETL
2026-01-28 07:00:07FORECAST2026129-15546.88631.60439.24553.848201729601004.514.51TF14.886132.88637340.1821815004918.3181987342540.91077827885032165111123.5WETL
2026-01-28 03:00:05FORECAST2026129-15552.12432.07242.09853.765072036858004.414.41TF20.124137.12437340.1277587872418.2869934529310.97247590102526165111123.5WETL
2026-01-27 23:03:04FORECAST2026129-15540.98236.73438.85852.393434293561004.514.51TF8.982122.98237339.2281244087217.7733264467360.75848059695109164111123WETL
2026-01-27 19:00:03FORECAST2026129-15539.8336.75238.29152.228262603487003.883.88TF7.83115.8337339.1195794530517.7116264496580.71763616719616164111123DRYL
2026-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2026129-15542.13438.340.21752.269383168107003.923.92TF10.134125.13437339.1466066819717.7269839348230.79589021868254164111123DRYL
2026-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2026129-15543.57437.59840.58651.402535638537003.333.33FF11.574133.57437338.5762576782417.4036781516680.83746164132292164111123DRYL
2026-01-27 07:00:07FORECAST2026129-15543.57437.59840.58649.138149004862003.223.22FF11.574135.57437337.0804487894516.5635093192420.83746164132292164111123DRYL
2026-01-27 03:00:07FORECAST2026129-15538.98438.13838.56149.895616154119003.523.52FF6.984129.98437337.5817744623816.8438506392010.68566884973057163111122.5DRYL