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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 1, 2026

[ Saturday, January 31, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, February 2, 2026 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/02/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.918
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 208

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.92 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 16.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-02 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026124-16044.9629.0600637.0100358.8351841666670.941.51.963.46TF12.96207.9632338.54485874185 19.9183491127550.9176812117201916 51241216DRYL
2026-02-02 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026124-16044.9629.0600637.0100358.8351841666670.941.51.963.46TF12.96207.9632338.54485874185 19.9183491127550.9176812117201916 51241216DRYL
2026-02-01 11:00:01FORECAST2026124-16031.78425.95228.86860.6474492809651.0657486071.6257486071.963.585748607TF-0.216194.78432339.7359667100820.6041198099690.465120522993251621151210DRYL
2026-02-01 07:00:03FORECAST2026124-16031.53226.63629.08459.771092160280.8881894561.4481894561.963.408189456TF-0.468194.53232339.1606671767220.2720034949610.45391338852969162114128DRYL
2026-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2026124-16031.29826.7829.03959.2725057034090.7318901591.2918901591.963.251890159TF-0.702194.29832338.832789631820.0834684559530.44353932799255162114128DRYL
2026-01-31 23:00:01FORECAST2026124-16032.23426.22229.22861.8199954550360.8118114621.1118114621.963.071811462FF0.234188.23432340.5037043723921.0499374567240.4851964488672162114128DRYL
2026-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16033.18825.77229.4861.4035570975640.6751972150.9751972151.962.935197215FF1.188189.18832340.2312985146220.8914119647210.52781868166112163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-31 15:00:02FORECAST2026124-16034.64626.56430.60561.0845136990340.6173231680.9173231681.962.877323168FF2.646190.64632340.0224068407820.7701033686440.59218461063037163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-31 11:00:10FORECAST2026124-16034.28627.12230.70460.3629843877910.5744097590.8744097591.962.834409759FF2.286190.28632339.5493652500720.4962130334750.576452891379163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-31 07:00:20FORECAST2026124-16035.00627.37431.1960.0449355912730.5192916190.8092916191.962.769291619FF3.006192.00632339.3405739305320.3756829051650.60776909790957163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2026124-16035.04228.52631.78460.1493323746970.5740160580.8840160581.962.844016058FF3.042192.04232339.4091264830720.4152323598360.60931852948205163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2026124-16034.86228.3131.58659.8678727470030.7712602591.6912602591.963.651260259TF2.862189.86232339.2242633585820.3086350314470.601554505164711631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-30 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.09628.56231.82958.885688541190.7846460931.7146460931.963.674646093TF3.096190.09632338.578126973719.9374061318320.611639419592421631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-30 15:00:03FORECAST2026124-16035.20428.41831.81158.6589389439250.7685043521.6485043521.963.608504352TF3.204190.20432338.4287290845319.851870156240.616269187417321631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.36628.20231.78457.3644879791960.5251971341.4051971341.963.365197134TF3.366189.36632337.574208056319.3647716001320.623182647791471631141210DRYL
2026-01-30 07:00:04FORECAST2026124-16035.61828.63432.12657.6480777895840.6224412811.3024412811.963.262441281TF3.618189.61832337.7616579210419.4713103301710.63385813267451631141210DRYL
2026-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2026124-16035.5128.7632.13557.4076322960920.5188979181.1688979181.963.128897918FF3.51189.5132337.602734702519.3809736559560.629295048584661631141210DRYL
2026-01-29 23:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.02428.99432.00952.4872477346050.622047581.372047582.153.52204758TF3.024189.02432334.3291841397217.548018712850.6085440289091631141210DRYL
2026-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16034.95227.89631.42452.959388050760.6425200321.4225200322.153.572520032TF2.952188.95232334.6450784030717.7225985664250.605441751506331631141210DRYL
2026-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.43828.0431.73952.953553456530.7106303051.5006303052.153.650630305TF3.438189.43832334.6411769706217.720439453470.626242815601341631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2026124-16035.25829.08432.17154.7083818877710.4185041631.0185041632.153.168504163FF3.258189.25832335.8119798745618.3717300374660.618577909973681631141210DRYL
2026-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2026124-16034.8829.15632.01854.5794884556590.3905513921.1705513922.273.440551392TF2.88187.8832335.7261610091918.3237621290630.602332774289261631141210DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2026124-16036.3229.49832.90954.3300644379520.4224411731.2924411731.93.192441173TF4.32191.3232335.5600115550918.2309970505880.663033168466391631141210DRYL
2026-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2026124-16036.87829.73233.30553.443717280120.7287405511.4887405512.854.338740551TF4.878188.87832334.9687344973917.9019743441580.685553719809231631141210WETL
2026-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026124-16037.16629.60633.38653.3379513741520.7181106241.3481106242.664.008110624TF5.166190.16632334.8980897333217.8627780254920.696919354359511631141210WETL
2026-01-28 15:00:01FORECAST2026124-16035.94228.52632.23453.3915225750220.6866145441.3366145442.593.926614544TF3.942188.94232334.9338741921917.8826295050720.647431991299271631141210DRYL
2026-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.92429.44432.68458.0837770029370.4129923491.0629923492.773.832992349TF3.924188.92432338.049387540319.635185241870.646682603467121631141210DRYL
2026-01-28 07:00:06FORECAST2026124-16036.15829.2132.68457.5072567502710.4129923491.1329923493.24.332992349TF4.158189.15832337.6685935808519.4183945075570.656379331663071631141210WETL
2026-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2026124-16036.53629.10232.81957.5614256121810.346456881.056456883.144.19645688TF4.536188.53632337.7043960731419.4387464734710.67182593686991631141210WETL
2026-01-27 23:01:25FORECAST2026124-16036.53628.34632.44156.2817102935610.5755908621.4955908622.984.475590862TF4.536179.53632336.8572602187818.9589027299160.67182593686991631141210WETL
2026-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16035.81627.44631.63155.4613914034870.5763782641.4163782642.423.836378264TF3.816180.81632336.3127819175418.6523748319240.642174422541751631141210DRYL
2026-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2026124-16036.17628.90432.5455.8223119681070.496063261.286063262.593.87606326TF4.176182.17632336.5524790353718.7871374783520.657121089363111631141210DRYL
2026-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026124-16037.32829.17433.25154.9112828385370.0799213030.7499213032.433.179921303FF5.328183.32832335.9470169621518.4472816671720.70323073162633164113129DRYL
2026-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2026124-16040.49630.32635.41152.9360938048620.0799213030.6899213032.383.069921303FF8.496186.49632334.6295018370817.7139786991220.81294465390363164113129DRYL
2026-01-27 03:00:06FORECAST2026124-16039.52430.34434.93453.2862833541190.0803150040.6703150042.633.300315004FF7.524186.52432334.8635719469317.8436351797360.78225641902584164113129DRYL
2026-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2026124-16038.2129.49833.85451.4995799933590.0917323330.8017323332.323.121732333FF6.21176.2132333.6671402635317.1837175811570.73648968630862164113129DRYL
2026-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16037.52629.71433.6251.5862593438530.0917323330.7817323332.463.241732333FF5.526176.52632333.725308832917.2156403310610.71086192666458164113129DRYL
2026-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2026124-16036.03228.36432.19851.7632822615790.1751969450.8551969452.573.425196945TF4.032174.03232333.8440651677417.2808645766310.65117030662001163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-26 11:00:04FORECAST2026124-16037.59828.47233.03551.8331673474850.1362205461.0762205462.93.976220546TF5.598170.59832333.8909330799917.3066246101430.713613871682161641141212DRYL
2026-01-26 07:00:04FORECAST2026124-16034.62827.5931.10952.1400278606140.1507874831.1007874833.34.400787483TF2.628169.62832334.0966283601617.4198075108360.591401321168051631141210WETL
2026-01-26 03:00:05FORECAST2026124-16034.77227.0530.91152.4883492130050.3452757771.4752757773.34.775275777TF2.772168.77232334.329921545317.5484256744260.597657158319141631141210WETL
2026-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2026124-16032.77428.70630.7451.9756368825860.6464570422.6564570422.445.096457042TF0.774154.77432333.9864534483717.3591586281350.509332697292521631151212.5WETL
2026-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2026124-16033.4429.26431.35251.8301257616050.6448822382.6548822382.375.024882238TF1.44155.4432333.8888934362417.3055033372030.539044290694991631151212.5WETL
2026-01-25 15:00:04FORECAST2026124-16033.31428.9431.12751.6113293295030.649606652.889606652.335.21960665TF1.314153.31432333.7421303508317.2248750006670.533434810797031631151212.5WETL
2026-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026124-16033.36827.9530.65950.9159222018730.5212601241.7412601241.132.871260124FF1.368157.36832333.2751269762116.969010436940.53583975255731631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-25 07:00:07FORECAST2026124-16033.54827.62630.58750.1822575693420.5248034331.8048034331.132.934803433TF1.548160.54832332.7815366022316.6997287840950.543846283427541631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-25 03:00:04FORECAST2026124-16033.9828.36431.17250.115756697130.5255908351.5855908351.112.695590835FF1.98161.9832332.7367510729216.6753540609640.562983387908851631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2026124-16034.7929.5732.1850.534324791780.2570867530.6470867531.572.217086753FF2.79148.7932333.0185130116816.8288656982080.59843741796847163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2026124-16034.82629.5732.19850.45407680.2594489590.6394489591.552.189448959FF2.826148.82632332.9645167420716.7994172993790.59999675778368163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 15:00:03FORECAST2026124-16033.74628.16630.95650.51724960.2492127330.5592127331.281.839212733FF1.746150.74632333.0070245909916.8225989798160.55263282642181163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026124-16033.11628.27430.69550.9716351930361.0055123541.1955123540.281.475512354FF1.116151.11632333.3125716564916.9894868077270.524606907759131631141210DRYL
2026-01-24 07:00:06FORECAST2026124-16033.11628.27430.69550.587549235671.0055123541.1955123540.281.475512354FF1.116155.11632333.0543199426516.8484018082520.524606907759131631141210DRYL
2026-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2026124-16033.29629.26431.2850.2317372333330.6874019461.3774019460.161.537401946FF1.296154.29632332.8148541586616.7178683014480.532632887815741631141210DRYL
2026-01-23 23:00:04FORECAST2026124-16036.530.77633.63849.80562080.1519685860.7919685860.621.411968586FF4.5158.532332.5277877078816.5617529000410.67036690083143163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-23 19:00:04FORECAST2026124-16036.530.77633.63849.73182080.1519685860.7919685860.621.411968586FF4.5162.532332.4780384932916.5347382302840.67036690083143163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-23 15:00:06FORECAST2026124-16033.92630.57832.25249.90716960.5303152470.9703152470.751.720315247FF1.926159.92632332.5962273845116.5989363283990.56059835514368163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-23 11:00:04FORECAST2026124-16034.93427.17631.05549.65477360.3692915380.4392915380.060.499291538FF2.934162.93432332.4260903621916.5065422556680.6046651279802163112125DRYL
2026-01-23 07:00:07FORECAST2026124-16036.55427.17631.86549.1449070833330.3692915380.4392915380.060.499291538FF4.554171.55432332.0820627476716.3201421177760.67255447549923163112125DRYL
2026-01-23 03:00:06FORECAST2026124-16038.28231.74835.01549.2286454833330.1594489050.2694489050.30.569448905FF6.282171.28232332.1385950240216.350733145770.73911842142019164112126DRYL
2026-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2026124-16034.66432.01833.34149.7347132782240.0799213030.9899213030.231.219921303FF2.664155.66432332.4799885133216.5357968994570.59296753186514163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-22 19:00:03FORECAST2026124-16034.66432.01833.34149.5529021741490.0799213030.9899213030.231.219921303FF2.664163.66432332.3573891917616.4692731934750.59296753186514163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-22 15:00:04FORECAST2026124-16032.46824.8928.67949.98264240.0921260341.6621260340.271.932126034FF0.468154.46832332.6470814851316.6265801192750.495654018725311621151210DRYL
2026-01-22 11:00:03FORECAST2026124-16033.63832.14432.89150.29474593464100.470.741.21FF1.638167.63832332.8572755477316.740972106170.54784308804459163112125DRYL
2026-01-22 07:00:05FORECAST2026124-16033.63832.14432.89150.67699811860200.460.751.21FF1.638165.63832333.114486089116.8812421848160.54784308804459163112125DRYL
2026-01-22 03:00:06FORECAST2026124-16033.36833.31433.34150.67037526717900.711.52.21FF1.368161.36832333.1100318184316.8788103175020.5358397525573163113127.5DRYL