Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 31, 2026

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DAY 123 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/01/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.56°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.86°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.21°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.931 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 220 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.31 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.06 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.46 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.52 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 57 in SWE DAY: 31 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.21 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 19.10 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -161 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-02-01 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	123	-161	47.55992	36.86	42.20996	56.8010675	0.31	2.06	0.46	2.52	F	F	15.55992	219.55992	31	336.20885289248	19.097021747243	0.93096641636419	16	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	DRY	L
2026-02-01 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	123	-161	47.55992	36.86	42.20996	56.8010675	0.31	2.06	0.46	2.52	F	F	15.55992	219.55992	31	336.20885289248	19.097021747243	0.93096641636419	16	5	1	2	5	1	2	20	DRY	L
2026-01-31 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.982	32.648	36.815	58.4742488	0.051574831	1.801574831	0.46	2.261574831	F	F	8.982	212.982	31	337.31864907516	19.724454610901	0.78532013047325	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-31 07:00:20	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.522	32.738	37.13	58.37620555	0.038188997	1.788188997	0.46	2.248188997	F	F	9.522	213.522	31	337.25374845836	19.687594142513	0.80153174790037	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-31 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	42.098	33.206	37.652	58.32769435	0.057086645	1.807086645	0.46	2.267086645	F	F	10.098	214.098	31	337.22163005302	19.669360165941	0.81798606565234	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.9	32.864	37.382	57.3901168	0.091732333	2.421732333	0.46	2.881732333	T	F	9.9	211.9	31	336.60009855853	19.317518971166	0.81242844295122	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.702	33.692	37.697	57.3591208	0.095669343	2.425669343	0.46	2.885669343	T	F	9.702	211.702	31	336.57952564926	19.305905670522	0.80676740657242	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.666	33.152	37.409	57.382048	0.04724412	2.37724412	0.46	2.83724412	T	F	9.666	211.666	31	336.59474322698	19.314495712398	0.80572705956695	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.432	32.63	37.031	57.451571979196	0.053543336	2.383543336	0.46	2.843543336	T	F	9.432	211.432	31	336.64088328524	19.340547937202	0.79888219822853	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.126	32.648	36.887	57.758187389584	0.064566964	2.184566964	0.46	2.644566964	F	F	9.126	211.126	31	336.84427349556	19.455514669665	0.78971667347774	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-30 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.18	32.558	36.869	57.514297896092	0.061417356	2.151417356	0.46	2.611417356	F	F	9.18	211.18	31	336.68250477232	19.364057875877	0.79135167477132	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.82	33.116	36.968	52.573741334605	0.066535469	2.436535469	0.46	2.896535469	T	F	8.82	210.82	31	333.38382857743	17.52723516877	0.78031086013476	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.432	32.288	36.86	53.05247445076	0.076771695	2.466771695	0.46	2.926771695	T	F	9.432	211.432	31	333.7052800318	17.70389084297	0.79888219822853	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.306	32.702	37.004	53.06090785653	0.07086618	2.48086618	0.46	2.94086618	T	F	9.306	211.306	31	333.71093924682	17.707005398092	0.79513746997604	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.396	32.72	37.058	54.845945087771	0.035826791	2.285826791	0.46	2.745826791	T	F	9.396	211.396	31	334.90605963102	18.368239356085	0.79781647853319	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.892	33.404	37.148	54.664112455659	0.014566937	2.594566937	0.46	3.054566937	T	F	8.892	209.892	31	334.78456654085	18.300701193808	0.78254542603319	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-29 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.9	33.242	37.571	54.480518037952	0.012204731	2.312204731	0.46	2.772204731	T	F	9.9	211.9	31	334.66183935442	18.232550375563	0.81242844295122	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.486	33.044	37.265	53.65576928012	0	2.33	1.28	3.61	T	F	9.486	209.486	31	334.10981376878	17.926919081801	0.80047445931725	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.828	32.18	37.004	53.568502574152	0	2.01	1.28	3.29	T	F	9.828	209.828	31	334.05133623245	17.894629864867	0.81038182168042	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 15:00:01	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.468	32.324	36.896	53.567363375022	0	1.96	1.28	3.24	T	F	9.468	210.468	31	334.05057276788	17.894208417092	0.79994454883208	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	41.252	32.072	36.662	58.364413802937	0	2.14	1.28	3.42	T	F	9.252	210.252	31	337.24594171579	19.683161695661	0.79352000248855	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.136	31.316	35.726	57.757881550271	0	2.57	1.35	3.92	T	F	8.136	210.136	31	336.84407069908	19.455399936349	0.7584368635793	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-28 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.262	31.604	35.933	57.774560012181	0	2.54	1.31	3.85	T	F	8.262	209.262	31	336.85512965372	19.46165690359	0.76255290167992	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 23:01:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.938	31.73	35.834	56.468670293561	0.071259881	2.621259881	1.28	3.901259881	T	F	7.938	199.938	31	335.98781666452	18.972785241882	0.75189140788876	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.64	31.802	36.221	55.639692203487	0.064960665	2.104960665	1.16	3.264960665	T	F	8.64	201.64	31	335.43575222161	18.663542007656	0.77466723535971	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.748	30.11	35.429	56.030329568107	0.070078778	2.100078778	1.28	3.380078778	T	F	8.748	202.748	31	335.69604505535	18.809160039161	0.77806319132862	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.532	32.756	36.644	55.196347638537	0	1.88	1.22	3.1	T	F	8.532	202.532	31	335.14002601666	18.498505383604	0.77124210081031	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.676	33.458	37.067	53.489200204862	0	1.77	1.22	2.99	T	F	8.676	202.676	31	333.9981843661	17.865295751619	0.77580247204905	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.316	33.242	36.779	53.863891354119	0	1.88	1.34	3.22	T	F	8.316	204.316	31	334.2492243413	18.003963905118	0.76430507984469	16	4	1	2	5	1	2	17.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.352	33.386	36.869	51.904692793359	0.014566937	1.944566937	1.09	3.034566937	T	F	8.352	195.352	31	332.93393204947	17.280833463513	0.76546923213239	16	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.568	32.864	36.716	51.973364943853	0.014566937	1.784566937	1.37	3.154566937	T	F	8.568	195.568	31	332.98014532474	17.30609861202	0.77238704262313	16	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.622	32.198	36.41	52.000032661579	0.014566937	1.854566937	1.4	3.254566937	T	F	8.622	194.622	31	332.99808932909	17.315911521356	0.77409840077403	16	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.56	31.118	35.339	52.177370547485	0.162992214	2.452992214	1.39	3.842992214	T	F	7.56	189.56	31	333.11738440736	17.381189202032	0.73913782231807	16	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	38.066	32.63	35.348	52.283691860614	0.170472533	2.630472533	1.62	4.250472533	T	F	6.066	192.066	31	333.18888092276	17.420344781549	0.68564312420499	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2026-01-26 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.634	32.9	35.267	52.476991705183	0.356693106	2.806693106	1.62	4.426693106	T	F	5.634	190.634	31	333.31881731212	17.49156881127	0.66934271492284	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2026-01-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.31	32.288	34.799	51.984886482586	0.975197377	3.375197377	1.07	4.445197377	T	F	5.31	179.31	31	332.9878980136	17.310338078312	0.65690099863117	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2026-01-25 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.536	31.442	33.989	51.840851361605	0.975197377	3.405197377	0.97	4.375197377	T	F	4.536	178.536	31	332.89096240025	17.257350901413	0.62650479631061	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2026-01-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.96	31.46	33.71	51.619988529503	1.03149662	3.65149662	0.92	4.57149662	T	F	3.96	176.96	31	332.74225284945	17.176151275369	0.60334963884503	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2026-01-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.238	30.902	34.07	50.926844601873	0.576378264	1.946378264	0.4	2.346378264	F	F	5.238	181.238	31	332.27500875348	16.921717735875	0.65411233567386	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.454	31.388	34.421	50.225356769342	0.603543633	1.983543633	0.43	2.413543633	F	F	5.454	184.454	31	331.80130180182	16.664838759529	0.66245264907174	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	38.318	31.28	34.799	50.17086069713	0.454330954	1.734330954	0.44	2.174330954	F	F	6.318	185.318	31	331.76446586443	16.644908801142	0.69498988042482	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.428	30.038	33.233	50.65348719178	0.229921384	1.269921384	0.69	1.959921384	F	F	4.428	171.428	31	332.09051388939	16.821542591808	0.62219504084158	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.392	31.1	33.746	50.5673352	0.224015869	1.254015869	0.68	1.934015869	F	F	4.392	171.392	31	332.03234148248	16.789990708986	0.62075503995928	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-24 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.32	30.434	33.377	50.5603488	0.179921357	1.029921357	0.56	1.589921357	F	F	4.32	174.32	31	332.02762349778	16.787432455283	0.61787002640081	16	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.184	31.478	34.331	50.993873593036	0.051968532	0.461968532	0.01	0.471968532	F	F	5.184	175.184	31	332.32022852494	16.94629572581	0.65201533158424	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	37.4	29.786	33.593	50.60978763567	0.051968532	0.461968532	0.01	0.471968532	F	F	5.4	179.4	31	332.06100823026	16.80553710862	0.66037483857011	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.176	29.534	32.855	50.263520433333	0.552362503	0.742362503	0.11	0.852362503	F	F	4.176	178.176	31	331.82709501698	16.67879797072	0.61208047870379	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.744	32.432	34.088	50.0119656	0.644882238	0.784882238	0.48	1.264882238	F	F	3.744	178.744	31	331.65703360228	16.586820155515	0.59456668582388	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.744	32.288	34.016	49.9381656	0.644882238	0.784882238	0.48	1.264882238	F	F	3.744	182.744	31	331.60712114779	16.559851330018	0.59456668582388	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 15:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.942	31.82	33.881	49.9995672	0.162204812	0.712204812	0.48	1.192204812	F	F	3.942	182.942	31	331.64864896379	16.582288910654	0.60261965848868	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.146	32.846	35.996	49.7728536	0	0.07	0.06	0.13	F	F	7.146	185.146	31	331.49528329219	16.499466204393	0.72479304060876	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-01-23 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.856	34.106	37.481	49.394941483333	0	0.07	0.06	0.13	F	F	8.856	191.856	31	331.23943949125	16.361552730642	0.7814297841543	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-01-23 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.47	32.936	36.203	49.578063883333	0	0.26	0.15	0.41	F	F	7.47	190.47	31	331.36344271558	16.428357931554	0.73605237074157	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.118	33.26	36.689	49.802806078224	0.4330711	0.9530711	0.19	1.1430711	F	F	8.118	178.118	31	331.51555040417	16.510404668695	0.75784571661299	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-22 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	40.118	33.26	36.689	49.620994974149	0.4330711	0.9530711	0.19	1.1430711	F	F	8.118	186.118	31	331.39250560204	16.44402585495	0.75784571661299	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-22 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	36.932	33.116	35.024	49.9852008	0.92913436	1.64913436	0.19	1.83913436	F	F	4.932	178.932	31	331.63893310007	16.577038664105	0.64216867314583	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.902	32.144	36.023	50.329382734641	0.280315112	0.840315112	0.37	1.210315112	F	F	7.902	190.902	31	331.87160269557	16.702892910824	0.75069125750096	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-22 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	39.956	32.018	35.987	50.711634918602	0.271259989	0.841259989	0.37	1.211259989	F	F	7.956	188.956	31	332.12976978252	16.842843630811	0.75249032710569	16	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-22 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	38.66	31.928	35.294	50.685036867179	0.285826926	1.455826926	0.75	2.205826926	F	F	6.66	184.66	31	332.11181399156	16.833099536188	0.70747329810903	16	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2026-01-21 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.636	33.314	34.475	50.5903216	0.013385834	0.893385834	0.23	1.123385834	F	F	3.636	180.636	31	332.04786383382	16.798408217946	0.59015699042636	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.06	34.376	34.718	50.9234056	0.013385834	0.893385834	0.23	1.123385834	F	F	3.06	177.06	31	332.27268849185	16.920456885873	0.56645886830858	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	33.71	30.29	32	51.3587272	0.380315166	1.810315166	0.62	2.430315166	F	F	1.71	170.71	31	332.56623477028	17.080178527498	0.5101218272779	16	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	33.944	31.514	32.729	50.6226952	0	0.27	0.17	0.44	F	F	1.944	184.944	31	332.06972367547	16.810264406771	0.51993331372405	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	33.944	31.514	32.729	50.088300733333	0	0.27	0.15	0.42	F	F	1.944	185.944	31	331.7086507766	16.614722655946	0.51993331372405	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	123	-161	35.798	35.708	35.753	49.950934333333	0	0.27	0.1	0.37	F	F	3.798	190.798	31	331.61575757355	16.564516930455	0.5967670788522	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L