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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 30, 2026

[ Thursday, January 29, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 31, 2026 ]

DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/31/2026 07:00:18 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.93°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.684
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 230

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-31 07:00:18OBSERVATION2026122-16237.3499632.5000434.92558.931968750.252.160.052.21FF5.34996230.3499630336.6304870028 19.8382973403470.6838913781878416 31251215DRYL
2026-01-31 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026122-16237.3499632.5000434.92558.931968750.252.160.052.21FF5.34996230.3499630336.6304870028 19.8382973403470.6838913781878416 31251215DRYL
2026-01-30 11:00:01FORECAST2026122-16235.2430.48832.86458.0334111791960.82677212.73677210.052.7867721TF3.24228.2430336.0335011254319.5011703407970.595355125716781631251215DRYL
2026-01-30 07:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.40230.0232.71158.2697689895840.6224412812.5324412810.052.582441281TF3.402228.40230336.1906651924919.5897523972210.602398056761671631251215DRYL
2026-01-30 03:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.45630.21832.83758.0240098960920.5881892942.4981892940.052.548189294TF3.456228.45630336.027247872819.4976483559280.604738426896091631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 23:00:01FORECAST2026122-16235.31231.40633.35953.1136621346050.6783468232.7783468230.052.828346823TF3.312228.31230332.7406435907817.6730741221320.598489278303111631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 19:00:01FORECAST2026122-16234.8831.4633.1753.577930450760.7019688832.8019688830.052.851968883TF2.88227.8830333.0531462198317.8442983045730.579596332212471631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 15:00:01FORECAST2026122-16234.71832.0933.40453.614899856530.7236224382.8236224380.052.873622438TF2.718227.71830333.0780147784517.8579444067580.572461420460111631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 11:00:03FORECAST2026122-16234.98831.13633.06255.4334914877710.5637798322.6637798320.052.713779832TF2.988227.98830334.2984655783918.5313311460150.584338605094741631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 07:00:04FORECAST2026122-16234.64630.84832.74755.2138732556590.7653547442.9853547440.053.035354744TF2.646226.64630334.1513796321618.4497919232130.569282580752371631251215DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.04231.42433.23355.1513108379520.8598429842.7098429840.052.759842984TF3.042228.04230334.1094643934518.4265749246650.586705189643331631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2026122-16235.2431.53233.38654.306390080120.7602366313.5602366310.053.610236631TF3.24226.2430333.5427359512718.113501926960.595355125716781631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2026122-16236.21231.1933.70154.1876353741520.6330712083.2430712080.053.293071208TF4.212226.21230333.4629840041418.0695705879930.637071916011231631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 15:00:01FORECAST2026122-16236.42830.4733.44954.1470377750220.6468507433.1868507430.053.236850743TF4.428227.42830333.4357144079218.0545562235870.646144579872571631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026122-16236.531.6434.0758.9492050029370.6527562583.3727562580.053.422756258TF4.5226.530336.6419251532419.8447738584420.649150759285681631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 07:00:05FORECAST2026122-16237.1333.42235.27658.2768431502710.7157484183.8657484180.053.915748418TF5.13228.1330336.1953676399219.5924047077990.675039949632061631251215DRYL
2026-01-28 03:00:04FORECAST2026122-16236.87832.75634.81758.3070024121810.7051184913.7951184910.053.845118491TF4.878226.87830336.2154146311819.6037129919130.664776728603561631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 23:00:45FORECAST2026122-16235.38431.71233.54857.0154790935610.846457153.726457150.13.82645715TF3.384218.38430335.3555568036419.1204577378480.601617109267861631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2026122-16235.97832.46834.22356.2168082034870.7803153823.1003153820.13.200315382TF3.978218.97830334.8224122370418.8226473309580.627155819928281631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 15:00:02FORECAST2026122-16235.85232.05433.95356.5839279681070.7173232223.2073232220.13.307323222TF3.852219.85230335.067613590618.9594417118560.62178080330941631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026122-16235.63632.25233.94455.7825164385370.6657483912.9957483910.13.095748391TF3.636219.63630334.5320509455818.6610396310890.612511978454021631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2026122-16235.45632.55834.00754.0963282048620.6051184372.9051184370.082.985118437TF3.456220.45630333.4016486036718.0358050069060.604738426896091631251215DRYL
2026-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2026122-16236.8633.2635.0654.4895185541190.5913389023.1013389020.123.221338902TF4.86221.8630333.6656721669718.1812818344150.664038800062621631251215DRYL
2026-01-26 23:00:02FORECAST2026122-16237.25632.23434.74552.4738383933590.6972444712.9372444710.083.017244471TF5.256213.25630332.3093689035117.4375481204420.680122817970131631251215DRYL
2026-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2026122-16236.69832.37834.53852.5342449438530.6779531222.9879531220.153.137953122TF4.698212.69830332.3501160486817.4597624036190.657369282485731631251215DRYL
2026-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2026122-16236.69831.67634.18752.5865950615790.6688979993.0888979990.153.238897999TF4.698211.69830332.3854236831417.4790176795970.657369282485731631251215DRYL
2026-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.31231.67633.49452.6835401474850.7763783723.4963783720.183.676378372TF3.312208.31230332.45079608117.5146848623970.598489278303111631251215DRYL
2026-01-26 07:00:03FORECAST2026122-16234.68232.0933.38652.6476734606140.7818901863.7818901860.34.081890186TF2.682211.68230332.426612189417.5014877281660.570872575097171631251215WETL
2026-01-26 03:00:05FORECAST2026122-16234.28630.43432.3652.8441221051830.7685043523.7585043520.314.068504352TF2.286211.28630332.5590449395317.5737907779670.553325021196081631251215WETL
2026-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2026122-16233.9830.54232.26152.3057688825861.0291344143.1891344140.283.469134414TF1.98199.9830332.1959649732717.375765367620.539691816096471631251215DRYL
2026-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2026122-16233.38630.72232.05452.1073185616051.031496623.261496620.143.40149662TF1.386200.38630332.0619994228817.3028603861320.513108091506461631251215DRYL
2026-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2026122-16233.45830.39831.92851.8523109295031.2090557713.3790557710.163.539055771TF1.458199.45830331.8897552195617.2092507819620.516335831728921631251215DRYL
2026-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.85231.133.47651.1468670018730.6413389291.7013389290.071.771338929FF3.852201.85230331.4126834398816.9507204426330.62178080330941631251215DRYL
2026-01-25 07:00:07FORECAST2026122-16236.06831.20833.63850.4035591693420.6759846171.7159846170.091.805984617FF4.068205.06830330.9090796284416.6789953747240.630980091919421631251215DRYL
2026-01-25 03:00:04FORECAST2026122-16235.97831.44233.7150.403871897130.6114176531.6314176530.091.721417653FF3.978204.97830330.9092917068716.6791095487630.627155819928281631251215DRYL
2026-01-24 23:00:02FORECAST2026122-16233.67430.99232.33350.839266391780.1559055961.6959055960.031.725905596FF1.674192.67430331.2043940623116.8381884198620.526011787253041631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-24 19:00:02FORECAST2026122-16233.92631.33432.6350.74681680.1555118951.6955118950.011.705511895FF1.926192.92630331.1417607230216.804390266240.537280639430541631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-24 15:00:03FORECAST2026122-16234.6130.7432.67550.71650960.1322835361.3822835360.031.412283536FF2.61195.6130331.1212248065116.7933127766630.567691462660261631141210DRYL
2026-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026122-16233.54830.30831.92851.2262943930360.1448819680.4148819680.010.424881968FF1.548195.54830331.4664406535816.9797974703320.52036897731721163112125DRYL
2026-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2026122-16233.15230.00231.57750.872810835670.1448819680.4148819680.010.424881968FF1.152200.15230331.2271163316.8504544327010.50261309942635163122126DRYL
2026-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2026122-16233.31430.231.75750.4429036333330.1448819680.2948819680.010.304881968FF1.314200.31430330.9357600164816.6933606513350.50987949237882163122126DRYL
2026-01-23 23:00:04FORECAST2026122-16237.68831.98234.83550.259835200.6200.62FF5.688200.68830330.8115944286716.6265362182340.69729016574042163123129DRYL
2026-01-23 19:00:04FORECAST2026122-16239.90232.25236.07750.157499200.6200.62FF7.902204.90230330.7421601968816.5891996354810.77804942585521641231210.5DRYL
2026-01-23 15:00:06FORECAST2026122-16239.41632.10835.76250.18957760.2822836171.03228361701.032283617FF7.416205.41630330.7639271000516.6009017864690.761445043889851641241214DRYL
2026-01-23 11:00:04FORECAST2026122-16238.73232.91835.82550.19252960.0728346850.13283468500.132834685FF6.732203.73230330.7659301001916.6019787372250.73696946301642164122127DRYL
2026-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2026122-16240.35233.38636.86950.0221430833330.0728346850.13283468500.132834685FF8.352209.35230330.6502943285916.5398363334510.79281864545157164122127DRYL
2026-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2026122-16238.51633.6236.06850.0752790833330.1110236820.41102368200.411023682FF6.516208.51630330.6863613687516.5592118345920.72898238806224164122127DRYL
2026-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2026122-16235.65432.32433.98950.3664412782240.4791341170.6591341170.050.709134117FF3.654195.65430330.8839066864316.6654448560320.61328691573983163113127.5DRYL
2026-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2026122-16235.65432.23433.94450.1846301741490.4791341170.6591341170.050.709134117FF3.654203.65430330.7605701237416.5990968878510.61328691573983163123129DRYL
2026-01-22 15:00:04FORECAST2026122-16234.6129.49832.05450.35390560.6397641250.8697641250.040.909764125FF2.61199.6130330.875404592416.6608688882070.56769146266026163123129DRYL
2026-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2026122-16237.72430.5634.14250.8133139346410.1870079750.7570079750.170.927007975FF5.724208.72430331.186813110916.8286995056170.69870199556208163123129DRYL
2026-01-22 07:00:05FORECAST2026122-16237.61630.50634.06151.1924173186020.1905512840.7705512840.170.940551284FF5.616206.61630331.443513653816.9673946685090.69445766361334163123129DRYL
2026-01-22 03:00:05FORECAST2026122-16236.89631.65834.27751.0791288671790.4240159771.8040159770.121.924015977FF4.896203.89630331.3668290567516.9259289636980.665514022226381631251215DRYL
2026-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2026122-16239.8334.03436.93250.71223920.6047247361.11472473601.114724736FF7.83202.8330331.1183310905316.7917520097680.77563188844981641241214DRYL
2026-01-21 19:00:03FORECAST2026122-16239.233.63836.41951.04276480.6047247361.11472473601.114724736FF7.2200.230331.3422096552416.9126224757450.753852999126081641241214DRYL
2026-01-21 15:00:04FORECAST2026122-16236.24830.63233.4451.40477840.7224413352.05244133502.052441335FF4.248195.24830331.5872007665717.0451665756820.638589539851651631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2026122-16240.35230.23635.29450.653297600.360.080.44FF8.352209.35230331.0783877730416.7702121047960.79281864545157164122127DRYL
2026-01-21 07:00:05FORECAST2026122-16240.3730.27235.32150.11890313333300.360.060.42FF8.37210.3730330.7159683588916.5751215828260.79339708876377164122127DRYL
2026-01-21 03:00:07FORECAST2026122-16240.80229.9335.36649.99196713333300.30.070.37FF8.802212.80230330.6298096786216.5288345787540.80699135537312164122127DRYL
2026-01-20 23:00:06FORECAST2026122-16234.03430.86632.4550.95430320.4692915922.0292915920.332.359291592FF2.034197.03430331.2823093992216.8802592379240.542101534163581631151212.5DRYL
2026-01-20 19:00:06FORECAST2026122-16234.44830.93832.69350.85718240.5047246822.3847246820.432.814724682TF2.448200.44830331.2165302126716.8447394909210.560518204199791631251215DRYL
2026-01-20 15:00:06FORECAST2026122-16234.50231.11832.8150.81270560.5775593672.5575593670.412.967559367TF2.502200.50230331.1864009933716.82847709240.562911619064281631251215DRYL
2026-01-20 11:00:05FORECAST2026122-16232.59431.67632.13550.13837040.2464568260.9464568260.151.096456826FF0.594204.59430330.7291794429616.5822221009990.47759281093108162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-20 07:00:07FORECAST2026122-16232.59431.67632.13550.47934030.2464568260.9464568260.151.096456826FF0.594200.59430330.9604661822416.706665998260.47759281093108162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-20 03:00:06FORECAST2026122-16232.48631.85632.17150.424137900.420.160.58FF0.486201.48630330.9230348726816.6865087447060.47275730121025162122125DRYL