Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 29, 2026

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DAY 121 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/30/2026 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.19°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.47°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.83°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.530 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 235 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.50 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.96 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.06 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.02 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 58 in SWE DAY: 29 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.07 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 19.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -163 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 15.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-30 07:00:02	OBSERVATION	2026	121	-163	34.19006	31.47008	32.83007	58.08551375	1.5	1.96	0.06	2.02	F	F	2.19006	235.19006	29	335.07130054749	19.462788635182	0.53036713710773	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-30 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2026	121	-163	34.19006	31.47008	32.83007	58.08551375	1.5	1.96	0.06	2.02	F	F	2.19006	235.19006	29	335.07130054749	19.462788635182	0.53036713710773	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-29 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.62	29.012	31.316	55.180798284142	1.685827682	2.145827682	0.06	2.205827682	F	F	1.62	234.62	29	333.12498526747	18.382102615452	0.51040539249637	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-29 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.404	29.03	31.217	55.307941629287	1.808268693	2.268268693	0.06	2.328268693	F	F	1.404	234.404	29	333.21047898983	18.429185722236	0.50283220746252	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-29 03:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.584	29.264	31.424	55.231881823576	1.444488969	1.904488969	0.06	1.964488969	F	F	1.584	234.584	29	333.1593381768	18.401017194602	0.50914338172175	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.142	29.444	31.793	54.500467718279	1.570079588	2.850079588	0.06	2.910079588	T	F	2.142	233.142	29	332.66704799412	18.130509710139	0.52868646540291	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.458	28.49	30.974	54.294150295574	1.384646417	2.664646417	0.06	2.724646417	T	F	1.458	232.458	29	332.52801723318	18.054326145147	0.50472570605891	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 15:00:01	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.53	28.238	30.884	54.246449008949	1.314173938	2.594173938	0.06	2.654173938	T	F	1.53	232.53	29	332.49586247933	18.036719849672	0.50725019787552	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.458	28.202	30.83	59.185266602937	1.490945687	2.770945687	0.06	2.830945687	T	F	1.458	232.458	29	335.80445447947	19.874676164821	0.50472570605891	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.232	28.094	31.163	58.622030350271	1.850788401	3.200788401	0.06	3.260788401	T	F	2.232	233.232	29	335.42922698871	19.6635423249	0.53183334979533	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-28 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.8	27.932	30.866	58.600431212181	1.826378939	3.136378939	0.06	3.196378939	T	F	1.8	231.8	29	335.41482697183	19.655453495508	0.51671363142435	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 23:00:29	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.566	27.986	30.776	57.243275093561	1.701182021	2.981182021	0.06	3.041182021	T	F	1.566	224.566	29	334.50843288828	19.14835824494	0.5085123412187	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.782	28.472	31.127	56.484751403487	1.262205406	2.422205406	0.06	2.482205406	F	F	1.782	224.782	29	334.00048031366	18.865934099162	0.5160829696803	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 15:00:01	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.196	29.012	31.604	56.846852768107	1.310236928	2.590236928	0.06	2.650236928	T	F	2.196	226.196	29	334.24308700487	19.000667555724	0.53057482362689	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.286	28.796	31.541	56.062562838537	1.211417977	2.431417977	0.06	2.491417977	F	F	2.286	226.286	29	333.71733351014	18.709048980221	0.53372053876793	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.322	29.174	31.748	54.358957804862	1.159843146	2.379843146	0.06	2.439843146	F	F	2.322	227.322	29	332.571696805	18.078250833714	0.53497824631711	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-27 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.286	28.994	31.64	54.826538554119	1.289764476	2.629764476	0.06	2.689764476	T	F	2.286	227.286	29	332.88662826629	18.251021558792	0.53372053876793	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.376	28.724	31.55	52.787045593359	1.230709326	2.320709326	0.06	2.380709326	F	F	2.376	218.376	29	331.51021423558	17.499444793518	0.53686414874511	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.088	28.688	31.388	52.825312143853	1.090158069	2.460158069	0.06	2.520158069	T	F	2.088	218.088	29	331.53610527549	17.513498248135	0.52679746202158	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.738	28.634	30.686	52.843025461579	1.169685671	2.569685671	0.06	2.629685671	T	F	0.738	216.738	29	331.54808920418	17.520004119554	0.47948705939034	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.27	28.238	30.254	52.861644147485	1.505906325	2.895906325	0.06	2.955906325	T	F	0.27	215.27	29	331.56068507766	17.526842947871	0.46311962741955	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.756	28.724	30.74	52.858347860614	1.683071775	3.303071775	0.06	3.363071775	T	F	0.756	218.756	29	331.55845512412	17.525632157079	0.48011744531889	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.728	28.85	31.289	52.990836505183	1.677953662	3.287953662	0.07	3.357953662	T	F	1.728	218.728	29	331.64806960959	17.574308633941	0.51419074932652	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.206	28.886	31.046	52.420503282586	1.37007948	2.44007948	0.06	2.50007948	F	F	1.206	208.206	29	331.26208520307	17.364925224783	0.49588915780228	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.72	28.616	30.668	52.165669761605	1.399607055	2.369607055	0.06	2.429607055	F	F	0.72	208.72	29	331.08944070689	17.27150242547	0.47885672476533	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.432	28.328	30.38	51.926307729503	1.412599188	2.332599188	0.06	2.392599188	F	F	0.432	208.432	29	330.92717601823	17.183826377978	0.46877963072895	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.432	27.644	30.038	51.287185401873	0.731890159	1.121890159	0.07	1.191890159	F	F	0.432	208.432	29	330.49342818332	16.950077725339	0.46877963072895	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.162	28.094	30.128	50.588846369342	0.69685077	1.11685077	0.07	1.18685077	F	F	0.162	211.162	29	330.01868652939	16.695264631848	0.4593503640068	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-25 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	31.964	27.77	29.867	50.59102869713	0.66535469	1.09535469	0.07	1.16535469	F	F	-0.036000000000001	210.964	29	330.02017142156	16.69605996302	0.45244977045367	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-24 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.126	28.13	30.128	50.96413599178	0.876772127	1.546772127	0.08	1.626772127	F	F	0.126	201.126	29	330.27391887734	16.832124916203	0.45809473746518	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	31.892	27.59	29.741	50.8921536	0.871260313	1.551260313	0.06	1.611260313	F	F	-0.108	200.892	29	330.22498291569	16.805860553103	0.44994390904922	16	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.422	27.824	30.623	50.877	0.724803541	1.284803541	0.06	1.344803541	F	F	1.422	203.422	29	330.21467986746	16.800332267617	0.50346338285747	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2026-01-24 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.018	25.97	28.994	51.268311193036	0.27165369	0.27165369	0.07	0.34165369	F	F	0.018000000000001	204.018	29	330.48060827382	16.943182668246	0.45433041572988	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.936	26.438	29.687	50.88944043567	0.27165369	0.27165369	0.07	0.34165369	F	F	0.936	208.936	29	330.22313824371	16.804870724134	0.48642377985762	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.828	27.14	29.984	50.488364433333	0.053543336	0.153543336	0.07	0.223543336	F	F	0.828	208.828	29	329.95030803203	16.658651396812	0.48263947058424	16	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.744	30.218	32.981	50.642808	0.139370154	0.619370154	0.06	0.679370154	F	F	3.744	204.744	29	330.05540050702	16.71493227724	0.58425139275431	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-23 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.438	30.308	32.873	50.6419224	0.139370154	0.619370154	0.06	0.679370154	F	F	3.438	207.438	29	330.05479801028	16.714609468584	0.57373243858665	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-23 15:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.194	31.046	33.62	50.641824	0.266141876	0.746141876	0.06	0.806141876	F	F	4.194	208.194	29	330.05473106611	16.714573601017	0.59960936799579	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-23 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.33	30.29	32.81	50.6406432	0	0.06	0.06	0.12	F	F	3.33	207.33	29	330.0539277348	16.714143191177	0.57000690130949	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-01-23 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.698	30.128	33.413	50.561965483333	0	0.06	0.06	0.12	F	F	4.698	210.698	29	330.00039565186	16.685468614436	0.61662823616854	16	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2026-01-23 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.554	30.344	33.449	50.535987883333	0.148425277	0.298425277	0.06	0.358425277	F	F	4.554	211.554	29	329.98271822121	16.676002649736	0.61178703730798	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-22 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.934	27.518	31.226	50.643437278224	0.037401595	0.177401595	0.11	0.287401595	F	F	2.934	201.934	29	330.05582862057	16.715161655058	0.55629567343173	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-22 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	38.156	29.048	33.602	50.435550174149	0.037401595	0.177401595	0.11	0.287401595	F	F	6.156	210.156	29	329.91436064716	16.639412289592	0.6645070162749	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-22 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.798	29.246	32.522	50.5130184	0.076377994	0.226377994	0.1	0.326377994	F	F	3.798	206.798	29	329.96708680452	16.667633527151	0.58610165492533	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-22 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	39.506	30.992	35.249	51.094639534641	0.371653744	0.711653744	0.09	0.801653744	F	F	7.506	212.506	29	330.36261660125	16.879758810962	0.70659487403877	16	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.464	28.544	32.504	51.465575718602	0.380708867	0.720708867	0.09	0.810708867	F	F	4.464	211.464	29	330.61456570418	17.015268964921	0.60875239283771	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-22 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.466	28.76	31.613	51.368326467179	0.746850797	1.436850797	0.12	1.556850797	F	F	2.466	209.466	29	330.54853454589	16.979725035801	0.54000545839145	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2026-01-21 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	34.826	29.84	32.333	51.3198592	0.277952906	0.507952906	0.06	0.567952906	F	F	2.826	204.826	29	330.51561972085	16.962015067475	0.55254380627814	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-21 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.656	28.994	31.325	51.5728456	0.277952906	0.507952906	0.06	0.567952906	F	F	1.656	202.656	29	330.68738184295	17.054489285655	0.51166729910527	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-21 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.72	28.454	30.587	51.654124	0.710236604	1.330236604	0.06	1.390236604	F	F	0.72	200.72	29	330.7425414287	17.084216247033	0.47885672476533	16	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-21 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.852	30.308	33.08	51.0148192	0.272441092	0.362441092	0.14	0.502441092	F	F	3.852	210.852	29	330.3083695967	16.850621755222	0.58795000802649	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-21 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.906	30.344	33.125	50.481211933333	0.272047391	0.362047391	0.12	0.482047391	F	F	3.906	211.906	29	329.94544005197	16.656045685701	0.5897964124508	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-21 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	37.022	30.038	33.53	50.519292733333	0.270078886	0.300078886	0.13	0.430078886	F	F	5.022	214.022	29	329.97135676553	16.669919566053	0.62745355358332	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-20 23:00:06	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	37.49	30.47	33.98	50.9960248	0.882283941	1.892283941	0.06	1.952283941	F	F	5.49	205.49	29	330.29559506248	16.843762357137	0.64291204705515	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.698	31.532	34.115	50.9114992	1.005118653	2.295118653	0.07	2.365118653	F	F	4.698	207.698	29	330.23813556042	16.812918574394	0.61662823616854	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-20 15:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	36.266	32.288	34.277	50.8712536	1.062205298	2.392205298	0.06	2.452205298	F	F	4.266	208.266	29	330.21077274256	16.798235961639	0.60205307546001	16	3	1	2	5	1	2	15	DRY	L
2026-01-20 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.546	31.676	33.611	50.144176	0.403149824	0.703149824	0.21	0.913149824	F	F	3.546	213.546	29	329.71595363701	16.533334809182	0.57745140844827	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-20 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.546	31.676	33.611	50.4851459	0.403149824	0.703149824	0.21	0.913149824	F	F	3.546	209.546	29	329.94811751434	16.657478852142	0.57745140844827	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2026-01-20 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	35.924	32	33.962	50.4267947	0.18897648	0.41897648	0.22	0.63897648	F	F	3.924	210.924	29	329.9084008739	16.636223200673	0.59041144072601	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 23:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.296	27.32	30.308	51.0800192	0	0.25	0.19	0.44	F	F	1.296	199.296	29	330.35268124214	16.87442130062	0.49904506150981	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.296	27.32	30.308	50.4749576	0	0.25	0.21	0.46	F	F	1.296	209.296	29	329.94118329024	16.653767237068	0.49904506150981	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.314	31.946	32.63	50.1522056	0.170472533	0.370472533	0.17	0.540472533	F	F	1.314	215.314	29	329.7214232442	16.536256609268	0.49967625574267	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.648	31.748	32.198	49.4220776	0.009842525	0.019842525	0.17	0.189842525	F	F	0.648	211.648	29	329.22361788336	16.270915190784	0.4763359307653	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	32.648	31.748	32.198	49.533609616667	0.009842525	0.019842525	0.17	0.189842525	F	F	0.648	207.648	29	329.29972079078	16.311403816528	0.4763359307653	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-19 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	121	-163	33.206	32.684	32.945	49.539218416667	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	1.206	201.206	29	329.30354733765	16.313440356943	0.49588915780228	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L