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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 28, 2026

[ Tuesday, January 27, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 29, 2026 ]

DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.21°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.437
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 237

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.46 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 28
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.37 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-29 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026120-16432.2100627.3000229.7550452.5860168750.410.460.841.3FF0.21006237.2100628330.35943247129 17.3722866907510.4368804011380816 2122125DRYL
2026-01-29 03:00:02OBSERVATION2026120-16432.2100627.3000229.7550452.5860168750.410.460.841.3FF0.21006237.2100628330.35943247129 17.3722866907510.4368804011380816 2122125DRYL
2026-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2026120-16429.69624.1726.93355.253567032211.2251975121.2751975120.842.115197512FF-2.304234.69628332.1660469543418.3533589412160.347136921535491621241210DRYL
2026-01-28 07:00:05FORECAST2026120-16429.73224.54827.1454.9970403906131.2976384961.3476384960.842.187638496FF-2.268234.73228331.9928442230818.2586238631310.348376079983941621241210DRYL
2026-01-28 03:00:03FORECAST2026120-16429.4824.49426.98754.9879650276291.2570872931.3070872930.842.147087293FF-2.52234.4828331.9867146143718.2552738528530.339736637038751621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 23:00:08FORECAST2026120-16429.46225.41227.43754.2582263952321.1775596911.2775596910.842.117559691FF-2.538227.46228331.4933776657617.9862427339090.339122676302121621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 19:00:01FORECAST2026120-16429.31825.9727.64453.836197291951.06299271.16299270.842.0029927FF-2.682227.31828331.2076489253617.8309603321480.334226469009361621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 15:00:01FORECAST2026120-16430.27226.29428.28354.1911595666271.1751974851.2751974850.842.115197485FF-1.728228.27228331.4479915000217.9615509954160.367151081216341621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 11:00:02FORECAST2026120-16430.16426.27628.2254.2515429139981.1185045411.2185045410.842.058504541FF-1.836228.16428331.4888550972817.9837818478220.363368883960231621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 07:00:05FORECAST2026120-16430.09225.93428.01354.4365954048621.1362210861.2162210860.842.056221086FF-1.908229.09228331.6140477893418.0519397500770.360854769294051621241210DRYL
2026-01-27 03:00:05FORECAST2026120-16429.55225.66427.60854.8965009541191.224410111.344410110.842.18441011FF-2.448228.55228331.9249307966918.2215172801760.342196717880871621241210DRYL
2026-01-26 23:00:01FORECAST2026120-16428.74225.48427.11352.8269959933591.0082682611.0882682610.841.928268261FF-3.258219.74228330.5231404572417.4605446166470.314928929392121621241210DRYL
2026-01-26 19:00:02FORECAST2026120-16429.0325.93427.48252.8701825438531.22047311.37047310.842.2104731FF-2.97220.0328330.5524684426417.4763693468840.324518845635571621241210DRYL
2026-01-26 15:00:02FORECAST2026120-16428.92225.48427.20352.8559158615791.2511817781.4011817780.842.241181778FF-3.078219.92228330.5427802948917.4711413839190.320908539314481621241210DRYL
2026-01-26 11:00:03FORECAST2026120-16428.81425.12426.96952.6012883429591.2145675851.3945675850.842.234567585FF-3.186218.81428330.3698100425217.3778776378550.317315075366531621241210DRYL
2026-01-26 07:00:03FORECAST2026120-16430.00225.91627.95952.8695654606141.3173235461.6173235460.842.457323546FF-1.998222.00228330.5520494040917.476143214110.357720568788991621251212.5DRYL
2026-01-26 03:00:04FORECAST2026120-16429.98426.3328.15753.0186837051831.3059062171.6159062170.842.455906217FF-2.016220.98428330.6532910307117.5308022532350.357094869733431621251212.5DRYL
2026-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2026120-16430.5626.79828.67952.4480552825860.7925201131.0725201130.841.912520113FF-1.44210.5628330.2656638231917.3217917941390.377299229444161621241210DRYL
2026-01-25 19:00:02FORECAST2026120-16429.62426.09627.8652.1766905616050.8279532030.9679532030.841.807953203FF-2.376211.62428330.0811288805517.2225409218260.34466351030245162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-25 15:00:03FORECAST2026120-16429.8426.2428.0451.9320149295030.7645673420.9245673420.841.764567342FF-2.16211.8428329.9146341206317.1331317046140.3521032251304162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-25 11:00:03FORECAST2026120-16430.43426.2428.33751.2938766018730.3330710460.4030710460.841.243071046FF-1.566212.43428329.4799120992216.9003019540130.37284851552847162122125DRYL
2026-01-25 07:00:07FORECAST2026120-16429.89426.18628.0450.5897319693420.3374017570.4274017570.841.267401757FF-2.106214.89428328.9994058550616.643991760280.35397216339063162122125DRYL
2026-01-25 03:00:03FORECAST2026120-16429.69626.54628.12150.591028697130.3500001890.4400001890.841.280000189FF-2.304214.69628329.0002915284216.6444631900780.34713692153549162122125DRYL
2026-01-24 23:00:01FORECAST2026120-16429.6627.53628.59850.964923191780.6633861850.6933861850.841.533386185FF-2.34204.6628329.2555422108216.7804834192420.34589939439881162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 19:00:01FORECAST2026120-16430.8327.96829.39950.89215360.6677168960.6777168960.841.517716896FF-1.17204.8328329.2058827868416.7539963528120.3868908216063162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 15:00:03FORECAST2026120-16431.44227.89629.66950.89923840.5342522570.5642522570.841.404252257FF-0.558206.44228329.210717999316.7565748192820.40888046428445162123127.5DRYL
2026-01-24 11:00:03FORECAST2026120-16434.12427.84230.98350.84157600.010.840.85FF2.124208.12428329.1713622144116.7355908290480.50773666198656163121123DRYL
2026-01-24 07:00:05FORECAST2026120-16434.17827.30230.7450.47734363333300.010.840.85FF2.178212.17828328.9226328200916.603140765640.5097428296937163121123DRYL
2026-01-24 03:00:05FORECAST2026120-16432.14427.42829.78650.5016484333330.102362260.112362260.840.95236226FF0.144212.14428328.9392374079816.6119737235060.43445758555289162122125DRYL
2026-01-23 23:00:03FORECAST2026120-16434.03430.0232.02750.79808320.480315220.480315220.841.32031522FF2.034205.03428329.1416736618916.7197661232640.50439263928312163122126DRYL
2026-01-23 19:00:04FORECAST2026120-16433.85429.331.57750.78027280.480315220.480315220.841.32031522FF1.854207.85428329.1295151859116.7132865676720.49770390282618162122125DRYL
2026-01-23 15:00:05FORECAST2026120-16432.91829.85831.38850.79326160.4814963230.4814963230.841.321496323FF0.918207.91828329.1383821950616.7180119494350.46297524363265162122125DRYL
2026-01-23 11:00:03FORECAST2026120-16433.87229.3931.63150.77545120.0562992430.0562992430.840.896299243FF1.872207.87228329.1262235701816.7115325035280.49837277845105162121122.5DRYL
2026-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2026120-16435.3329.89432.61250.7757886833330.0562992430.0562992430.840.896299243FF3.33210.3328329.1264539650216.7116552766230.55240077208514163121123DRYL
2026-01-23 03:00:05FORECAST2026120-16435.2430.39832.81950.7270806833330.1484252770.1484252770.840.988425277FF3.24211.2428329.093199696416.6939372933360.54908345144603163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 23:00:03FORECAST2026120-16433.92629.67831.80250.7704716782240.1413386590.1913386590.841.031338659FF1.926202.92628329.122824101916.7097210197230.50037942525028163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 19:00:02FORECAST2026120-16434.91631.24433.0850.6843053741490.1405512570.1905512570.841.030551257FF2.916207.91628329.0639924430116.6783798806180.53711433453021163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 15:00:03FORECAST2026120-16434.93430.77632.85550.63316480.1480315760.1880315760.841.028031576FF2.934206.93428329.0290691682916.6597830831890.53778026938365163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 11:00:02FORECAST2026120-16436.24830.18233.21551.3872811346410.1952756960.3652756960.841.205275696FF4.248209.24828329.5435865439716.9343489278530.58598861082515163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 07:00:04FORECAST2026120-16435.29429.51632.40551.6296085186020.1972442010.3672442010.841.207244201FF3.294211.29428329.708712193817.0227317357380.55107427033527163122126DRYL
2026-01-22 03:00:05FORECAST2026120-16434.19631.0132.60351.4866032671790.633858610.743858610.851.59385861FF2.196211.19628329.6112784824316.9705651276120.5104115000021163123129DRYL
2026-01-21 23:00:03FORECAST2026120-16435.630.66833.13451.4986520.2263780750.2263780750.841.066378075FF3.6205.628329.6194890061616.9749593567460.56232985425635163122126DRYL
2026-01-21 19:00:02FORECAST2026120-16435.09627.03231.06451.670360.2263780750.2263780750.841.066378075FF3.096205.09628329.7364709055217.0376021568180.54376869597301163122126DRYL
2026-01-21 15:00:04FORECAST2026120-16434.93427.03230.98351.68728480.6244097860.6244097860.841.464409786FF2.934203.93428329.7479987375417.0437787229770.53778026938365163123129DRYL
2026-01-21 11:00:03FORECAST2026120-16438.51631.35234.93451.19577680.086614220.166614220.841.00661422FF6.516210.51628329.4130205938716.8645554773370.66585561269839163122126DRYL
2026-01-21 07:00:04FORECAST2026120-16437.27430.39833.83650.6657119333330.0862205190.1462205190.840.986220519FF5.274212.27428329.0512957337616.6716181609370.62278644555618163122126DRYL
2026-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2026120-16438.85829.71434.28650.6957239333330.0279527710.0979527710.840.937952771FF6.858212.85828329.071789418416.6825325906030.67736932383338163122126DRYL
2026-01-20 23:00:06FORECAST2026120-16436.2330.57833.40451.25698160.6846460391.0146460390.841.854646039FF4.23204.2328329.4547563870216.8868563861620.585335205349461631241212DRYL
2026-01-20 19:00:05FORECAST2026120-16435.90630.75833.33251.17501440.870079211.300079210.842.14007921FF3.906206.90628329.3988611579916.8569914631040.573535229243681631241212DRYL
2026-01-20 15:00:05FORECAST2026120-16435.22230.8333.02651.1453960.9196855361.3296855360.842.169685536FF3.222208.22228329.3786608598716.8462020436280.548419568153631631241212DRYL
2026-01-20 11:00:04FORECAST2026120-16435.65431.98233.81850.34304240.3007875640.4507875640.841.290787564FF3.654213.65428328.8308622282916.5543460395870.56431117514208163122126DRYL
2026-01-20 07:00:06FORECAST2026120-16435.65431.98233.81850.68401230.3007875640.4507875640.841.290787564FF3.654209.65428329.0637923191716.678273297390.56431117514208163122126DRYL
2026-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2026120-16436.37432.37834.37650.68952270.2311024870.3911024870.841.231102487FF4.374211.37428329.0675550362416.6802773008430.59055569007558163122126DRYL
2026-01-19 23:00:05FORECAST2026120-16437.65232.55835.10551.10658720.2500001350.3700001350.851.220000135FF5.652201.65228329.3521902382316.8320664299210.63608634691722163122126DRYL
2026-01-19 19:00:05FORECAST2026120-16437.65232.55835.10550.50152560.2500001350.3700001350.871.240000135FF5.652211.65228328.939153493116.6119290809740.63608634691722163122126DRYL
2026-01-19 15:00:04FORECAST2026120-16439.34433.0836.21250.18438240.2031497160.2831497160.871.153149716FF7.344218.34428328.7224064822416.4967309503530.69344064011353163122126DRYL
2026-01-19 11:00:05FORECAST2026120-16438.24632.59435.4249.4295560.0129921330.0129921330.950.962992133FF6.246215.24628328.205828254516.2230683672320.65665366313733163121123DRYL
2026-01-19 07:00:07FORECAST2026120-16437.05832.59434.82649.5410880166670.0129921330.0129921330.950.962992133FF5.058211.05828328.2822194520416.263458328180.61511943825843163121123DRYL
2026-01-19 03:00:06FORECAST2026120-16437.88633.18835.53749.54955041666700.010.960.97FF5.886203.88628328.2880146880716.2665235349740.64423940052377163121123DRYL
2026-01-18 23:00:05FORECAST2026120-16433.31431.74832.53150.19323840.4385829140.4385829140.841.278582914FF1.314192.31428328.7284613595316.4999460298840.47764908198307162112124DRYL
2026-01-18 19:00:05FORECAST2026120-16433.31431.74832.53150.18713760.4385829140.4385829140.841.278582914FF1.314194.31428328.7242902364416.4977311865590.47764908198307162112124DRYL
2026-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2026120-16431.26225.10628.18450.4478976000.930.93FF-0.738186.26228328.9025144637816.5924403700510.40237971574225162111122DRYL
2026-01-18 11:00:05FORECAST2026120-16424.85421.0222.93751.5192753745320.0098425250.0898425251.361.449842525FF-7.146158.85428329.6335420757116.9824812268810.19929281526889161111121.5DRYL
2026-01-18 07:00:06FORECAST2026120-16424.85421.0222.93751.9741042395420.0098425250.0898425251.371.459842525FF-7.146152.85428329.9432820599217.1485065349190.19929281526889161111121.5DRYL
2026-01-18 03:00:08FORECAST2026120-16425.53824.96225.2560.63734794634700.432.312.74FF-6.462149.53828335.7751732626420.3605160128720.21757340052283161112123DRYL