Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 26, 2026

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DAY 118 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/27/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.09°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.79°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.707 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 237 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.89 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 50 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.80 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 16.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -166 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-27 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2026	118	-166	38.08994	29.78996	33.93995	50.36899375	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	6.08994	237.08994	26	326.79601713667	16.460386544682	0.70719980245483	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-01-27 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2026	118	-166	38.08994	29.78996	33.93995	50.36899375	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	6.08994	237.08994	26	326.79601713667	16.460386544682	0.70719980245483	16	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.84	23.432	26.636	50	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-2.16	228.84	26	326.54180741179	16.327090370589	0.32482890512262	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 07:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.632	23.054	26.843	50.375555416667	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-1.368	229.632	26	326.80053548969	16.462758485757	0.36006410723513	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-26 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.172	22.892	27.032	50.423904930361	0.014566937	0.014566937	0.89	0.904566937	F	F	-0.828	230.172	26	326.83382656472	16.480237798726	0.38481157882181	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.154	23.252	27.203	51	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-0.846	219.154	26	327.23018261436	16.688739313332	0.38397841404245	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.28	22.172	26.726	51	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-0.72	219.28	26	327.23018261436	16.688739313332	0.38982161435053	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.28	23.72	27.5	51	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-0.72	219.28	26	327.23018261436	16.688739313332	0.38982161435053	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.172	23.774	27.473	51.052532510726	0.013779535	0.013779535	0.89	0.903779535	F	F	-0.828	219.172	26	327.26629637625	16.707773235413	0.38481157882181	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.974	24.008	27.491	50.561004560112	0.011417329	0.011417329	0.89	0.901417329	F	F	-1.026	220.974	26	326.92820433396	16.529818430158	0.37567682312008	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-25 03:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.578	24.422	27.5	50.565145554264	0.012204731	0.012204731	0.89	0.902204731	F	F	-1.422	220.578	26	326.93105443423	16.531316353676	0.3576193656124	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.164	24.026	27.095	51.08674239178	0.022047256	0.022047256	0.89	0.912047256	F	F	-1.836	211.164	26	327.28981155548	16.720170290389	0.33907644362515	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.966	23.666	26.816	50.9983272	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-2.034	210.966	26	327.22903255968	16.688133271818	0.33034067532988	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.534	23.234	26.384	50.9938992	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-2.466	211.534	26	327.22598827371	16.68652906165	0.31160359984808	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.318	23.936	26.627	50.999508	0.011023628	0.011023628	0.89	0.901023628	F	F	-2.682	210.318	26	327.22984436349	16.688561065455	0.30241087738193	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.462	24.764	27.113	50.651905233333	0.011417329	0.011417329	0.89	0.901417329	F	F	-2.538	214.462	26	326.99076116925	16.56270504692	0.30852591807358	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-24 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.146	24.89	27.518	50.661646833333	0.011417329	0.011417329	0.89	0.901417329	F	F	-1.854	215.146	26	326.9974643735	16.566230055486	0.3382786112958	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.118	24.98	28.049	51	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-0.882	207.118	26	327.23018261436	16.688739313332	0.38231369521669	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.668	26.042	28.355	50.9828784	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-1.332	208.668	26	327.21841123552	16.682536470262	0.3616971263128	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.65	25.286	27.968	50.9731368	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-1.35	209.65	26	327.21171349838	16.679007434715	0.36088029989241	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.902	25.844	28.373	50.9697912	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-1.098	209.902	26	327.20941322719	16.677795470864	0.37237198802322	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.624	24.962	27.293	51.017262283333	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-2.376	209.624	26	327.24205019704	16.694993505038	0.31546925338811	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-23 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.02	24.386	27.203	51.002403883333	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-1.98	211.02	26	327.23183528232	16.689610226553	0.33271425936823	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.624	25.106	27.365	51.003974878224	0.050000027	0.050000027	0.89	0.940000027	F	F	-2.376	203.624	26	327.23291533466	16.690179393057	0.31546925338811	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.632	25.772	28.202	50.955987774149	0.050393728	0.050393728	0.89	0.940393728	F	F	-1.368	207.632	26	327.19992245891	16.672795248518	0.36006410723513	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.894	24.422	27.158	50.89176	0.035039389	0.035039389	0.89	0.925039389	F	F	-2.106	207.894	26	327.15575723934	16.649532280043	0.32718649153553	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.55	24.44	27.995	51.039405225687	0.028740173	0.028740173	0.89	0.918740173	F	F	-0.45	210.55	26	327.25727240395	16.703016539278	0.40242531960259	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.198	25.07	28.634	51.338458158728	0.029133874	0.029133874	0.89	0.919133874	F	F	0.198	213.198	26	327.46277305929	16.811433873245	0.43306680966455	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-22 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.126	25.124	28.625	51.375592524934	0.048818924	0.048818924	0.9	0.948818924	F	F	0.126	213.126	26	327.4882798445	16.824904421983	0.42963868196548	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	33.044	23.702	28.373	51.8615512	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	1.044	206.044	26	327.82185259186	17.001349792672	0.4736562722125	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.198	23.216	27.707	51.8823136	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	0.198	207.198	26	327.83609519145	17.008895100122	0.43306680966455	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.378	22.838	27.608	51.8698168	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	0.378	207.378	26	327.8275227215	17.004353545562	0.44165863919681	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.666	24.62	28.643	51.7054888	0.083070911	0.083070911	0.89	0.973070911	F	F	0.666	206.666	26	327.71477279869	16.944652514537	0.45546117405609	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.666	25.016	28.841	51.198547933333	0.063385861	0.063385861	0.89	0.953385861	F	F	0.666	208.666	26	327.36665016983	16.760697130495	0.45546117405609	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-21 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.702	25.466	29.084	51.172570333333	0.073228386	0.073228386	0.89	0.963228386	F	F	0.702	208.702	26	327.34879895074	16.751279437839	0.45719062689879	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-20 23:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	31.532	25.52	28.526	51.5741248	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	-0.468	203.532	26	327.62460652193	16.896952344313	0.40158175134049	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-20 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.882	27.068	29.975	51.5224648	0.011417329	0.011417329	0.89	0.901417329	F	F	0.882	206.882	26	327.58913963092	16.878199915497	0.46584940593347	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-20 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	33.548	26.906	30.227	51.4805464	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	1.548	207.548	26	327.56035736181	16.862986175965	0.49799557318448	16	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2026-01-20 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	34.52	27.518	31.019	50.9706376	0.150393782	0.150393782	0.89	1.040393782	F	F	2.52	210.52	26	327.20999517234	16.678102083027	0.54487753908081	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-20 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	35.96	27.14	31.55	51.2366267	0.150393782	0.150393782	0.89	1.040393782	F	F	3.96	208.96	26	327.3928149083	16.774503441719	0.61301287694949	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-20 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	35.942	27.302	31.622	51.2690987	0.155511895	0.155511895	0.89	1.045511895	F	F	3.942	209.942	26	327.41512511788	16.786278365541	0.61217780935125	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	37.148	28.454	32.801	52.0385336	0.116535496	0.116535496	0.9	1.016535496	F	F	5.148	197.148	26	327.94323496692	17.065685051719	0.66680372428941	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2026-01-19 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	36.986	29.57	33.278	51.397064	0.116535496	0.116535496	0.92	1.036535496	F	F	4.986	206.986	26	327.50302703417	16.832694040669	0.6596389800827	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	36.914	29.606	33.26	51.1979024	0.0787402	0.0987402	0.9	0.9987402	F	F	4.914	210.914	26	327.3662065882	16.760463093961	0.65643587666677	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	36.824	29.804	33.314	50.5775888	0	0.11	0.89	1	F	F	4.824	208.824	26	326.93961850116	16.53581758698	0.65241617864646	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	34.556	28.562	31.559	50.424326416667	0	0.11	0.89	1	F	F	2.556	206.556	26	326.83411676129	16.480390187674	0.54660597927661	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-19 03:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	34.268	28.184	31.226	50.371092016667	0.009842525	0.129842525	0.89	1.019842525	F	F	2.268	200.268	26	326.79746200788	16.461145029612	0.53275648169403	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-18 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	33.386	26.474	29.93	50.6136032	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	1.386	192.386	26	326.96440389543	16.548846599288	0.4901670533215	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-01-18 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	33.386	26.456	29.921	50.6075024	0	0	0.89	0.89	F	F	1.386	194.386	26	326.96020543623	16.546639381319	0.4901670533215	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-01-18 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	32.342	25.664	29.003	50.696948	0	0.09	0.89	0.98	F	F	0.342	190.342	26	327.02175375045	16.579004844755	0.43993794221601	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2026-01-18 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	28.04	24.314	26.177	51.196718971516	0	0.18	1.23	1.41	F	F	-3.96	175.04	26	327.36539338719	16.760034046244	0.25068954579327	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-01-18 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	28.058	24.314	26.186	51.651252636525	0	0.18	1.24	1.42	F	F	-3.942	169.058	26	327.67754955703	16.924955895488	0.25138414140674	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-01-18 03:00:08	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	27.518	23.144	25.331	60.637347946347	0.427165585	1.427165585	1.36	2.787165585	F	F	-4.482	165.518	26	333.7754352002	20.239257200178	0.2309953081763	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-17 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	29.03	21.11	25.07	55.687127619851	0.274015896	0.774015896	1.42	2.194015896	F	F	-2.97	151.03	26	330.43348314696	18.400891545877	0.29034684343091	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.002	22.658	26.33	56.215812502743	0.274015896	0.774015896	1.42	2.194015896	F	F	-1.998	149.002	26	330.79241207796	18.595764214704	0.33192231396799	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-17 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.092	21.362	25.727	54.483097157926	0.199212706	0.389212706	1.51	1.899212706	F	F	-1.908	145.092	26	329.61425499044	17.958405479281	0.33588947683757	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2026-01-17 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	27.554	20.804	24.179	60.502635251802	0.584252284	1.204252284	0.95	2.154252284	F	F	-4.446	139.554	26	333.6850441697	20.188824516381	0.23232524873184	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-17 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	27.554	20.858	24.206	60.436184065471	0.587401892	1.207401892	0.95	2.157401892	F	F	-4.446	146.554	26	333.64044461687	20.163955322551	0.23232524873184	16	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2026-01-17 03:00:10	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	27.338	16.88	22.109	57.29964145669	0.313385996	0.793385996	1.1	1.893385996	F	F	-4.662	144.338	26	331.52672815698	18.996362656704	0.22440963327918	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2026-01-16 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	28.994	24.206	26.6	64.088342431753	0.498031765	2.158031765	0.89	3.048031765	T	F	-3.006	141.994	26	336.0805085889	21.538842719083	0.28885480702166	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-16 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.2	24.206	27.203	56.272828042854	0.498031765	2.158031765	0.89	3.048031765	T	F	-1.8	150.2	26	330.83109165693	18.61680113204	0.34067427077382	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-16 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	30.128	23.342	26.735	54.642838210885	0.351181292	1.861181292	0.89	2.751181292	F	F	-1.872	152.128	26	329.72308777832	18.017005339864	0.33748150397517	16	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2026-01-16 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	39.218	37.742	38.48	53.047161970274	0.148425277	1.228425277	0.89	2.118425277	F	F	7.218	169.218	26	328.63395637598	17.433098712808	0.75234893163419	16	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2026-01-16 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	39.218	37.742	38.48	53.176939720274	0.148425277	1.228425277	0.89	2.118425277	F	F	7.218	167.218	26	328.7227013913	17.480467276571	0.75234893163419	16	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2026-01-16 03:00:12	FORECAST	2026	118	-166	43.43	42.71	43.07	49.511815784358	0.055905542	0.165905542	0.89	1.055905542	F	F	11.43	184.43	26	326.20511783195	16.15100770201	0.88346790247366	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L