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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 24, 2026

[ Friday, January 23, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 25, 2026 ]

DAY 116 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/25/2026 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.766
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.83 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-25 07:00:06OBSERVATION2026116-16839.0500623.931.4750350.523192916667002.422.42FF7.05006206.0500624324.8347488014 16.411688679730.7661548423577816 4121123.5DRYL
2026-01-25 03:00:02OBSERVATION2026116-16839.0500623.931.4750350.523192916667002.422.42FF7.05006206.0500624324.8347488014 16.411688679730.7661548423577816 4121123.5DRYL
2026-01-24 11:00:01FORECAST2026116-16830.48817.43823.96351002.422.42FF-1.512197.48824325.165255217316.5834280160820.34205104382504162111122DRYL
2026-01-24 07:00:04FORECAST2026116-16833.31417.58225.44850.659088433333002.422.42FF1.314200.31424324.9289877282516.4606063238790.48688286049263162121122.5DRYL
2026-01-24 03:00:04FORECAST2026116-16832.84618.73425.7950.665976433333002.422.42FF0.846199.84624324.9337634562816.463086401670.46222914291593162121122.5DRYL
2026-01-23 23:00:02FORECAST2026116-16831.67618.80625.24151002.422.42FF-0.324192.67624325.165255217316.5834280160820.40142756623642162111122DRYL
2026-01-23 19:00:02FORECAST2026116-16831.51417.99624.75551002.422.42FF-0.486192.51424325.165255217316.5834280160820.39315997744561162111122DRYL
2026-01-23 15:00:02FORECAST2026116-16831.94620.13826.04251002.422.42FF-0.053999999999998192.94624325.165255217316.5834280160820.41530367590902162111122DRYL
2026-01-23 11:00:02FORECAST2026116-16831.62219.9425.78151002.422.42FF-0.378192.62224325.165255217316.5834280160820.39866659874214162111122DRYL
2026-01-23 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16831.85619.99425.92551.051407083333002.422.42FF-0.144193.85624325.2008649566916.6019617407560.41066564334362162111122DRYL
2026-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2026116-16831.89220.1226.00651.051407083333002.422.42FF-0.108193.89224325.2008649566916.6019617407560.41251939659709162111122DRYL
2026-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2026116-16830.79419.88625.3451002.422.42FF-1.206186.79424325.165255217316.5834280160820.35704228271366162111122DRYL
2026-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2026116-16834.30419.74227.02350.9610336002.422.42FF2.304190.30424325.1382600538616.569381795250.53908459835561163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-22 15:00:02FORECAST2026116-16834.80819.68827.24850.9491272002.422.42FF2.808190.80824325.1300109987616.5650902869130.56545938513116163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-22 11:00:01FORECAST2026116-16834.91619.43627.17650.9482416002.422.42FF2.916191.91624325.1293974227116.5647710911540.57107748650541163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2026116-16834.66422.4628.56251.2436149002.422.42FF2.664193.66424325.3339663230716.6712884841490.55794816756105163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2026116-16835.07822.96429.02151.234562100.012.422.43FF3.078194.07824325.3276988371116.668022188920.57947736414058163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2026116-16834.64622.49628.57151.9293488002.422.42FF2.646185.64624325.8082988494516.9190127928880.55700774158803163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2026116-16834.8821.3828.1351.9238384002.422.42FF2.88187.8824325.8044905141516.9170197154510.56920632703452163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16834.86221.39828.1351.9194104002.422.42FF2.862187.86224325.801430206116.9154181637770.5682701617163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026116-16834.50222.71228.60751.7409128002.422.42FF2.502187.50224325.6780371241516.8508789197160.54947320910067163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2026116-16835.97822.89229.43551.244894333333002.422.42FF3.978189.97824325.3348520960116.6717501186110.62538711298051163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-21 03:00:06FORECAST2026116-16835.25823.01829.13851.221081533333002.422.42FF3.258190.25824325.3183656274716.6631585300950.58876814165706163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 23:00:04FORECAST2026116-16836.4124.29630.35351.615256002.422.42FF4.41186.4124325.5911386437716.805469972430.6468503055623163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2026116-16836.35625.23230.79451.5893768002.422.42FF4.356187.35624325.5732383313316.7961204682710.64419118138649163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16835.9625.48430.72251.5566096002.422.42FF3.96186.9624325.5505719890116.7842837450940.62448378811584163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2026116-16836.35626.04231.19951.1743256002.422.42FF4.356187.35624325.2859918909916.6462912621490.64419118138649163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2026116-16835.02423.8129.41751.4427747002.422.42FF3.024184.02424325.4718133138416.7431731635050.57668122578955163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-20 03:00:05FORECAST2026116-16835.76224.40430.08351.4730819002.422.42FF3.762184.76224325.4927841069316.7541167341950.6145031751768163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-19 23:00:04FORECAST2026116-16835.74424.40430.07452.395528800.012.422.43FF3.744172.74424326.1302911981817.0877690650270.61359196449241163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-19 19:00:04FORECAST2026116-16838.37228.2233.29651.797945600.032.422.45FF6.372182.37224325.7174692430916.8714957528230.73777245406149164111123DRYL
2026-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16839.25429.22834.24151.638734400.012.422.43FF7.254185.25424325.6073773355516.8139528769110.77434648051366164111123DRYL
2026-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2026116-16836.51827.5932.05451.048728002.422.42FF4.518182.51824325.1990092677516.6009957699790.65214699567018163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-19 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16835.61825.93430.77650.783781616667002.422.42FF3.618182.61824325.0154296047316.5055125990940.60719620975717163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026116-16835.22225.2530.23650.679871216667002.422.42FF3.222178.22224324.9433970153316.4680895134430.58691378739616163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-18 23:00:04FORECAST2026116-16835.65427.91431.78450.93606002.422.42FF3.654168.65424325.1209574249116.5603805946530.60902660630557163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2026116-16835.07827.55431.31650.8876472002.422.42FF3.078170.07824325.0874121294716.5429335376060.57947736414058163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026116-16834.66426.70830.68650.8368728002.422.42FF2.664169.66424325.0522260461316.5246386688640.55794816756105163111122.5DRYL
2026-01-18 11:00:04FORECAST2026116-16830.34424.85427.59951.1967189715160.1657481210.5057481212.422.925748121FF-1.656163.34424325.3014975067916.6543693488690.33507981808151162113126DRYL
2026-01-18 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16829.19223.05426.12351.5879445437090.1677166260.5177166262.422.937716626FF-2.808162.19224325.5722476235616.7956030553750.28150035892061162113126DRYL
2026-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2026116-16828.90422.62225.76354.2565193276480.5771656661.0471656662.423.467165666TF-3.096160.90424327.4118923699717.7642296664730.26877980865535162114128DRYL
2026-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026116-16827.44621.41624.43151.366831616770.1854331710.7154331712.423.135433171FF-4.554145.44624325.4192580925816.7157562352960.20911426725597161113124.5DRYL
2026-01-17 19:00:06FORECAST2026116-16826.88819.52623.20752.3369729477730.1854331710.7154331712.423.135433171FF-5.112140.88824326.0898673765517.066556567430.18851737241496161113124.5DRYL
2026-01-17 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16826.34815.22420.78653.1117748571450.1854331710.8054331712.423.225433171FF-5.652137.34824326.6242628445317.3475943110790.16982047705391161113124.5DRYL
2026-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2026116-16826.617.6922.14552.2938949850950.3208663150.3808663152.422.800866315FF-5.4138.624326.0601248214517.050953926240.17839315480977161112123DRYL
2026-01-17 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16828.11217.76222.93752.2187972722240.318897810.378897812.422.79889781FF-3.888145.11224326.0082669113617.0237595989130.23535120983987161112123DRYL
2026-01-17 03:00:09FORECAST2026116-16827.89616.39422.14552.9609772457420.350393890.560393892.422.98039389FF-4.104144.89624326.5203373003917.2928361540380.22664889191136161113124.5DRYL
2026-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2026116-16824.85418.75221.80352.7456520828920.2996064610.2996064612.422.719606461FF-7.146131.85424326.371872134417.2146972172430.12450317782473161112123DRYL
2026-01-16 19:00:03FORECAST2026116-16825.64620.40823.02752.4563869790470.2996064610.2996064612.422.719606461FF-6.354137.64624326.1722980517717.1098202884490.14735484128782161112123DRYL
2026-01-16 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16826.85221.27224.06252.188649167390.2822836170.2822836172.422.702283617FF-5.148139.85224325.9874456821717.012844435680.18723285629454161112123DRYL
2026-01-16 11:00:05FORECAST2026116-16823.920.60622.25351.7490715029460.2492127330.2492127332.422.669212733FF-8.1134.924325.6836783501516.8538279582840.1004134156291161112123DRYL
2026-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16823.920.60622.25351.8788492529460.2492127330.2492127332.422.669212733FF-8.1132.924325.7733957215316.9007488872580.1004134156291161112123DRYL
2026-01-16 03:00:11FORECAST2026116-16828.63424.5326.58250.2134077843580.0637795620.0637795622.422.483779562FF-3.366138.63424324.6198016968416.3002664774810.25712204077408162111122DRYL
2026-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2026116-16832.48626.83429.6652.197443370080.27559070.43559072.532.9655907FF0.486121.48624325.9935193997917.0160282678830.44335806666553162112124DRYL
2026-01-15 19:00:08FORECAST2026116-16831.11824.8928.00453.0853402959660.27559070.43559072.532.9655907FF-0.882127.11824326.6060477531417.3379931876960.37315897796955162112124DRYL
2026-01-15 15:00:04FORECAST2026116-16830.2923.10826.69954.122738619610.1362205460.3562205462.693.046220546FF-1.71120.2924327.3199640820917.7154528609950.33248001747652162112124DRYL
2026-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2026116-16833.18817.625.39452.1022298010661.1425203021.4325203022.423.852520302TF1.188123.18824325.9277529139516.9815626808670.48023644424031162114128DRYL
2026-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026116-16833.18817.625.39452.6124192120361.1425203021.4325203022.423.852520302TF1.188125.18824326.2799683457717.1663784750980.48023644424031162114128DRYL
2026-01-15 03:00:06FORECAST2026116-16840.94618.57229.75952.71198681110500.352.422.77FF8.946135.94624326.3486528283917.2024858837120.83577847431751164112126DRYL
2026-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2026116-16828.38221.70425.04356.2452314168410.1011811571.1311811572.423.551181157TF-3.618122.38224328.7747716393118.4920131148720.24648325797623161114126DRYL
2026-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2026116-16821.68620.28220.98461.1058606234490.1011811571.1311811572.423.551181157TF-10.314107.68624332.0769648402420.2918487297850.057871746973582161114126DRYL
2026-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026116-16832.86421.2927.07757.6357727193330.1212599080.7712599082.423.191259908FF0.864119.86424329.7236385196619.0038766899110.4631752926734162113126DRYL
2026-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026116-16829.89428.43629.16552.3516047479290.0996063530.4696063532.422.889606353FF-2.106121.89424326.0999689505517.0718566828110.31366691894347162112124DRYL
2026-01-14 07:00:06FORECAST2026116-16829.89428.43629.16552.0976220376090.0996063530.4796063532.422.899606353FF-2.106124.89424325.9245698085116.9798950506540.31366691894347162112124DRYL
2026-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2026116-16838.96638.46238.71450.68713825647800.172.422.59FF6.966145.96624324.9484352785416.470706265190.76273113052134164112126DRYL