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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 23, 2026

[ Thursday, January 22, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 24, 2026 ]

DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.93°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.29°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.408
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 194

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.05 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.05 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.41 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -169

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-24 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026115-16931.9299822.6500827.2900350.672470833333004.054.05TF-0.07002193.9299823323.89903833821 16.4127645731380.4077468671105116 2111122WETL
2026-01-24 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026115-16931.9299822.6500827.2900350.672470833333004.054.05TF-0.07002193.9299823323.89903833821 16.4127645731380.4077468671105116 2111122WETL
2026-01-23 11:00:01FORECAST2026115-16926.38419.47222.92851004.054.05TF-5.616188.38423324.1268915456416.5304714688280.19440931937373161111121.5WETL
2026-01-23 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16926.92419.20223.06351.051407083333004.054.05TF-5.076188.92423324.1626368594716.548958735520.21169372961695161111121.5WETL
2026-01-23 03:00:04FORECAST2026115-16927.46419.32823.39651.051407083333004.054.05TF-4.536189.46423324.1626368594716.548958735520.22984407005487161111121.5WETL
2026-01-22 23:00:02FORECAST2026115-16927.28419.11223.19851004.054.05TF-4.716183.28423324.1268915456416.5304714688280.22369928774078161111121.5WETL
2026-01-22 19:00:01FORECAST2026115-16927.12219.27423.19851004.054.05TF-4.878183.12223324.1268915456416.5304714688280.21824960447396161111121.5WETL
2026-01-22 15:00:01FORECAST2026115-16927.44619.41823.43251004.054.05TF-4.554183.44623324.1268915456416.5304714688280.22922537812542161111121.5WETL
2026-01-22 11:00:01FORECAST2026115-16927.60819.47223.5451004.054.05TF-4.392183.60823324.1268915456416.5304714688280.23482706522947161111121.5WETL
2026-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2026115-16928.1320.06624.09851.2902565004.054.05TF-3.87186.1323324.3286567982416.6348999974820.25338044845281162111122WETL
2026-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2026115-16928.50820.37224.4451.289174100.014.054.06TF-3.492185.50823324.3279046686116.6345103680360.26728089359473162111122WETL
2026-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2026115-16928.6721.2924.9851.9762856004.054.05TF-3.33177.6723324.8049435815516.8821545118870.2733537052642162111122WETL
2026-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2026115-16930.36221.63225.99751.973924004.054.05TF-1.638180.36223324.8033054257816.8813023111480.34053902748457162111122WETL
2026-01-21 15:00:03FORECAST2026115-16929.51621.225.35851.9671344004.054.05TF-2.484179.51623324.7985956731816.8788522742790.30613187232654162111122WETL
2026-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026115-16929.76821.93825.85351.7816504004.054.05TF-2.232179.76823324.669899269416.8119432193710.31622095595802162111122WETL
2026-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2026115-16930.48822.60426.54651.321646333333004.054.05TF-1.512181.48823324.3504678202616.6461999975220.34578814111803162111122WETL
2026-01-21 03:00:05FORECAST2026115-16930.66822.35226.5151.277169533333004.054.05TF-1.332181.66823324.3195628907116.6301892093240.35333833388216162111122WETL
2026-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2026115-16931.74823.37827.56351.7112944004.054.05TF-0.252176.74823324.6210675288116.7865755914250.39976231227247162111122WETL
2026-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2026115-16932.41424.2628.33751.6873832004.054.05TF0.414178.41423324.6044695796716.7779556075970.42916235395359162111122WETL
2026-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2026115-16931.76624.24228.00451.6494992004.054.05TF-0.234177.76623324.5781703535616.7642999500140.40055027423509162111122WETL
2026-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2026115-16931.98224.42228.20251.2791216004.054.05TF-0.018000000000001177.98223324.3209193673716.6308918616630.41003651270612162111122WETL
2026-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16932.05423.39627.72551.5014211004.054.05TF0.054000000000002176.05423324.4753496562516.7109416192160.41321062280667162111122WETL
2026-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2026115-16931.9123.21627.56351.5546555004.054.05TF-0.09175.9123324.5123183737316.7301207792640.40686828518049162111122WETL
2026-01-19 23:00:04FORECAST2026115-16932.55823.55828.05852.478676800.014.054.06TF0.558163.55823325.1532107319217.0636102564830.43557712221292162111122WETL
2026-01-19 19:00:04FORECAST2026115-16933.2625.53829.39952.027709600.034.054.08TF1.26171.2623324.8406120981116.9007130325270.46706142570515162111122WETL
2026-01-19 15:00:03FORECAST2026115-16935.07827.35631.21751.92596400.014.054.06TF3.078173.07823324.7700351969816.8639971559170.54907043144853163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 11:00:04FORECAST2026115-16934.8826.40230.64151.1637576004.054.05TF2.88172.8823324.2407422312816.5893747395650.54017735812277163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16935.11425.39430.25450.855613616667004.054.05TF3.114174.11423324.0264691954316.4785649189760.55068484366621163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026115-16933.18824.45828.82350.739009616667004.054.05TF1.188170.18823323.9453429193416.4366658696590.4638193596587162111122WETL
2026-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2026115-16933.78225.41229.59751.0523688004.054.05TF1.782159.78223324.1633055334316.549304625520.49061840539595162111122WETL
2026-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2026115-16933.85427.46430.65950.9756168004.054.05TF1.854161.85423324.1099353408516.5217038650080.49387207498072162111122WETL
2026-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026115-16933.76427.69830.73150.9147072004.054.05TF1.764161.76423324.0675738980216.4998056380320.4898050770702162111122WETL
2026-01-18 11:00:04FORECAST2026115-16930.77626.0628.41850.3158112056010.3433072720.3433072724.054.393307272TF-1.224159.77623323.6507041646116.2847477273060.35789652806426162112124WETL
2026-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16930.36225.50227.93250.6080924996510.3472442820.3472442824.054.397244282TF-1.638160.36223323.8542297723816.3896448167240.34053902748457162112124WETL
2026-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2026115-16928.68825.35827.02350.9351717848370.4696852930.4696852934.054.519685293TF-3.312158.68823324.0818073500516.5071625297150.27403265102794162112124WETL
2026-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026115-16929.3925.62827.50950.1684416247290.5334648550.5334648554.054.583464855TF-2.61145.3923323.5480282994516.2319003705370.30114125997784162113126WETL
2026-01-17 19:00:05FORECAST2026115-16929.3925.23227.31151.1532753551090.5334648550.5334648554.054.583464855TF-2.61141.3923324.2334559833616.5856032532550.30114125997784162113126WETL
2026-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2026115-16929.2124.49426.85251.8689482831670.6200790750.6200790754.054.670079075TF-2.79138.2123324.7304776728316.843428352380.2940761001491162113126WETL
2026-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2026115-16929.69625.77227.73450.0628517466410.055118140.055118144.054.10511814TF-2.304138.69623323.4744377016916.1940528184880.31332394001916162111122WETL
2026-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16930.34426.3328.33749.9789723691670.0562992430.0562992434.054.106299243TF-1.656144.34423323.4159641137716.163997534190.33979163863516162111122WETL
2026-01-17 03:00:09FORECAST2026115-16930.16426.56428.36450.4185888937640.2090552310.2090552314.054.259055231TF-1.836144.16423323.7222890602516.3216210078770.3323527606763162112124WETL
2026-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026115-16930.0224.3527.18550.3287944004.054.05TF-1.98134.0223323.6597480205716.2894049136830.32644864017031162111122WETL
2026-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026115-16931.20822.8227.01450.1105432004.054.05TF-0.792139.20823323.5076785832316.2111455031770.37632671385026162111122WETL
2026-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2026115-16931.71223.32427.51850.0589816004.054.05TF-0.288139.71223323.4717400378316.1926658826740.39818761508265162111122WETL
2026-01-16 11:00:04FORECAST2026115-16930.72222.8226.77149.5781008004.054.05TF-1.278137.72223323.1363383492416.0204859548220.35561485126339162111122WETL
2026-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2026115-16929.4822.8226.1549.70787855004.054.05TF-2.52136.4823323.226895275916.0669232544680.30470225530293162111122WETL
2026-01-16 03:00:11FORECAST2026115-16931.83825.37628.60749.74477855004.054.05TF-0.162136.83823323.2526380809116.0801308970380.40370613962483162111122WETL
2026-01-15 23:00:03FORECAST2026115-16931.08225.55628.31951.2471989213660.0161417410.2661417414.054.316141741TF-0.918116.08223324.2987356902516.6194018178660.37091989325521162112124WETL
2026-01-15 19:00:08FORECAST2026115-16929.76824.72827.24851.5787540008930.0161417410.2661417414.054.316141741TF-2.232122.76823324.5290519741516.7388041379180.31622095595802162112124WETL
2026-01-15 15:00:04FORECAST2026115-16928.423.48625.94353.0439972940170.0161417410.4861417414.054.536141741TF-3.6117.423325.544570633217.2681853237490.26327047001857162112124WETL
2026-01-15 11:00:04FORECAST2026115-16926.56420.323.43252.1300770010660.1700788320.2900788324.054.340078832TF-5.436116.56423324.9116019134516.9376668262880.20007318607474161112123WETL
2026-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16926.56420.323.43252.6402664120360.1700788320.2900788324.054.340078832TF-5.436118.56423325.265133303317.1220432716320.20007318607474161112123WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:06FORECAST2026115-16926.74420.73223.73852.9046540111050.1964567990.3464567994.054.396456799TF-5.256121.74423325.448158287417.2177222127460.20583490269494161112123WETL
2026-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2026115-16929.06624.63826.85255.1107826648010.732283861.032283864.055.08228386TF-2.934121.06623326.9705908668718.0196051710460.28847968737835162114128WETL
2026-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2026115-16925.7922.04623.91859.893560187890.732283861.032283864.055.08228386TF-6.21112.7923330.2419992072619.7793690560890.17642025034055161114126WETL
2026-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026115-16927.57222.58625.07956.5191808796670.4515750470.6515750474.054.701575047TF-4.428113.57223327.9380636499918.5347907367620.23357575653744161113124.5WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026115-16932.0924.06228.07652.3516047479290.3744096510.3744096514.054.424409651TF0.090000000000003119.0923325.0651639482817.0176829803410.41479982119299162112124WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026115-16932.0923.82827.95952.0976220376090.3830710730.3830710734.054.433071073TF0.090000000000003122.0923324.8890970215116.9259493807670.41479982119299162112124WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2026115-16939.34424.3531.84750.7605446564780.173228440.173228444.054.22322844TF7.344134.34423323.9603275556116.4444026738140.72795781299503164112126WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2026115-16931.56821.43426.50162.0939426878670.1685040280.8985040284.054.948504028TF-0.432103.56823331.7337595725620.5986570545290.39190562994094162113126WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:05FORECAST2026115-16931.8222.9127.36558.5720287196890.1685040280.8985040284.054.948504028TF-0.18113.8223329.3420447024219.2902317009110.4029165767967162113126WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:05FORECAST2026115-16926.621.81224.20660.0955085066440.2200788591.3600788594.055.410078859TF-5.4104.623330.3792588321619.8543095595670.20121772373145161114126WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026115-16935.29434.21434.75450.4839920.2562993510.9362993514.054.986299351TF3.294139.29423323.7678327450516.3450926781580.55874379931564163113127.5WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:06FORECAST2026115-16935.29434.21434.75450.3732370166670.2562993510.9362993514.054.986299351TF3.294140.29423323.6907036774916.3053485364380.55874379931564163113127.5WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026115-16921.23620.44420.8458.5821226896090.1066929710.6566929714.054.706692971TF-10.764106.23623329.3489300865919.2939594300240.0741210891987161113124.5WETL