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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 22, 2026

[ Wednesday, January 21, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, January 23, 2026 ]

DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2026 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.09°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.40°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.671
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 189

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 22
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.12 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-23 07:00:05OBSERVATION2026114-17038.0899428.7200433.4049951.051407083333004.214.21TF6.08994189.0899422323.12045598998 16.4957539356970.6709186012593916 3111122.5WETL
2026-01-23 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026114-17038.0899428.7200433.4049951.051407083333004.214.21TF6.08994189.0899422323.12045598998 16.4957539356970.6709186012593916 3111122.5WETL
2026-01-22 11:00:01FORECAST2026114-17031.53224.8928.21151004.214.21TF-0.468182.53222323.0845745855516.4773133038630.39543341252088162111122WETL
2026-01-22 07:00:03FORECAST2026114-17033.54824.60229.07551.2902565004.214.21TF1.548184.54822323.287108004716.5814786927040.48099801444222162111122WETL
2026-01-22 03:00:04FORECAST2026114-17033.49424.56629.0351.28917410.0098425250.0098425254.214.219842525TF1.494184.49422323.2863530115316.5810900437630.47867640786849162111122WETL
2026-01-21 23:00:02FORECAST2026114-17033.3524.60228.97651.9762856004.214.21TF1.35176.3522323.7652081209416.8281129246370.47248920633598162111122WETL
2026-01-21 19:00:01FORECAST2026114-17033.58424.829.19251.973924004.214.21TF1.584176.58422323.7635637283216.8272628551850.48254611515889162111122WETL
2026-01-21 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17034.05225.01629.53451.9671344004.214.21TF2.052177.05222323.7588360446216.8248189459180.50268687778002163111122.5WETL
2026-01-21 11:00:02FORECAST2026114-17034.1625.73629.94851.7816504004.214.21TF2.16177.1622323.6296496641416.7580773779830.50733564345392163111122.5WETL
2026-01-21 07:00:03FORECAST2026114-17034.35826.02430.19151.321646333333004.214.21TF2.358178.35822323.3090020662716.5927502604280.51585533831896163111122.5WETL
2026-01-21 03:00:05FORECAST2026114-17034.4325.93430.18251.277169533333004.214.21TF2.43178.4322323.2779794745816.5767797599110.51895181999359163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17034.50226.31230.40751.7112944004.214.21TF2.502171.50222323.5806320099216.7327733240030.52204715863278163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 19:00:02FORECAST2026114-17035.5126.8731.1951.6918112004.214.21TF3.51172.5122323.5670563414816.7257671869430.56515812394256163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17036.06827.28431.67651.6494992004.214.21TF4.068173.06822323.537571515316.7105535411490.58872683305006163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 11:00:03FORECAST2026114-17036.42827.39231.9151.2791216004.214.21TF4.428173.42822323.2793411156516.5774806438370.60376979078127163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17035.34827.03231.1951.5019131004.214.21TF3.348171.34822323.4347023500416.6575059339560.55826808040934163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2026114-17035.07826.56430.82151.5546555004.214.21TF3.078171.07822323.4714688218916.6764601391920.5467464182477163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17034.1625.95230.05652.4848760.0122047310.0122047314.214.222204731TF2.16158.1622324.1191121831917.0113514121650.50733564345392163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 19:00:04FORECAST2026114-17035.97827.2331.60452.04827520.0291338740.0291338744.214.239133874TF3.978164.97822323.815330067516.8540294133320.58494468676847163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17035.38426.9631.17251.99326960.0110236280.0110236284.214.221023628TF3.384165.38422323.7770338653316.8342266120490.55980080124631163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2026114-17033.825.53829.66951.2241752004.214.21TF1.8164.822323.241011322916.5577541958290.49183943011674162111122WETL
2026-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17035.85226.11430.98350.913079216667004.214.21TF3.852165.85222323.0238944703516.4461411280450.5796365072809163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026114-17035.02426.34830.68650.752195216667004.214.21TF3.024164.02422322.911544671216.3884697528680.54443703820918163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17035.02428.09431.55951.0907448004.214.21TF3.024153.02422323.1479099859916.5098674017480.54443703820918163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 19:00:04FORECAST2026114-17034.4328.83231.63151.0150752004.214.21TF2.43155.4322323.0950973437416.4827206877420.51895181999359163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17034.48429.40831.94650.9485568004.214.21TF2.484155.48422323.0486632817816.4588631703760.52127344132636163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 11:00:04FORECAST2026114-17034.44828.18431.31650.2144928004.214.21TF2.448156.44822322.5357187140716.195967525110.5197257690953163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17035.20427.4131.30749.987985033333004.214.21TF3.204157.20422322.3772478750816.1149890418670.552128694718163111122.5WETL
2026-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2026114-17034.10627.44630.77649.917924233333004.214.21TF2.106157.10622322.3282130173616.0899553156670.50501134568497163111122.5WETL
2026-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17035.1527.24831.19949.6884464004.214.21TF3.15143.1522322.1675426504716.0080046748080.54982312086964163111122.5WETL
2026-01-17 19:00:05FORECAST2026114-17033.63825.64629.64250.2931144004.214.21TF1.638138.63822322.5907031578816.2240911382960.48486875245743162111122WETL
2026-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17032.925.37629.13850.3173208004.214.21TF0.9135.922322.607629824816.2327516024220.45320370489503162111122WETL
2026-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2026114-17033.60227.2330.41649.7519144004.214.21TF1.602135.60222322.2119895442716.030663322460.48332026567698162111122WETL
2026-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17033.96227.75230.85749.668035733333004.214.21TF1.962140.96222322.153247456416.0007190062740.49881260086014162111122WETL
2026-01-17 03:00:09FORECAST2026114-17034.30427.87831.09149.582821333333004.214.21TF2.304141.30422322.0935571078715.9703072946970.51353233915366163111122.5WETL
2026-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17032.61225.14228.87750.3287944004.214.21TF0.612130.61222322.6156525380216.2368568468080.44091577757005162111122WETL
2026-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026114-17033.40425.73629.5750.1105432004.214.21TF1.404135.40422322.4630041374916.1587962992340.4748087096589162111122WETL
2026-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2026114-17033.42225.82629.62450.0589816004.214.21TF1.422135.42222322.4269287658116.1403636944320.47558207111715162111122WETL
2026-01-16 11:00:04FORECAST2026114-17033.20626.92430.06549.5781008004.214.21TF1.206134.20622322.0902501261415.9686228874510.46630863589915162111122WETL
2026-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2026114-17029.0325.32227.17649.70787855004.214.21TF-2.97134.0322322.1811518237716.0149415659550.29626593174891162111122WETL
2026-01-16 03:00:11FORECAST2026114-17029.87625.84427.8649.74477855004.214.21TF-2.124131.87622322.2069926375316.0281154960160.3285652560734162111122WETL
2026-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026114-17029.35425.93427.64451.2471989213660.1374016490.2474016494.214.457401649TF-2.646112.35422323.2570729801916.5660195217540.30846458251175162112124WETL
2026-01-15 19:00:07FORECAST2026114-17030.81224.94427.87851.5787540008930.1374016490.2474016494.214.457401649TF-1.188119.81222323.4882661309616.6851217009440.36584541260711162112124WETL
2026-01-15 15:00:04FORECAST2026114-17028.70624.56626.63652.9337329355050.204724520.474724524.214.68472452TF-3.294115.70622324.4310709815917.1733476673190.28429316901476162112124WETL
2026-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026114-17029.6626.0627.8650.8621994383660.1196851040.1196851044.214.329685104TF-2.34116.6622322.9883686611316.4278988231150.32018314262504162112124WETL
2026-01-15 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17031.56826.0628.81451.3723888493360.1196851040.1196851044.214.329685104TF-0.432118.56822323.3443907184616.6109737722410.39693036232053162112124WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2026114-17031.53226.00628.76951.4007289013760.1472441740.1472441744.214.357244174TF-0.468121.53222323.364153544616.6211531927690.39543341252088162112124WETL
2026-01-14 23:00:04FORECAST2026114-17032.16227.3229.74151.9785109270420.3019686670.3019686674.214.511968667TF0.162119.16222323.7667576170516.8289139486110.42183356784149162112124WETL
2026-01-14 19:00:07FORECAST2026114-17028.32824.83626.58253.1554359531090.3019686670.3019686674.214.511968667TF-3.672114.32822324.5850250022317.2534585078440.27062392197439162112124WETL
2026-01-14 15:00:03FORECAST2026114-17028.34624.09826.22252.4703127385120.1992127060.1992127064.214.409212706TF-3.654113.34622324.1089846535317.0060997861320.27126733104933162112124WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:03FORECAST2026114-17029.46224.40426.93349.9480656004.214.21TF-2.538114.46222322.3493097298816.1007244685030.31257913653984162111122WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17028.9424.31426.62749.591171216667004.214.21TF-3.06116.9422322.0994065429615.9732868186580.29291705879164162111122WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:08FORECAST2026114-17031.29825.23228.26549.440717616667004.214.21TF-0.702122.29822321.9939886132915.9196138652940.38574172942311162111122WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:04FORECAST2026114-17027.62623.97225.79960.295663271530.728346850.728346854.214.93834685TF-4.37498.62622329.4972348736819.8672543228440.24613969088115161113124.5WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:05FORECAST2026114-17029.80426.07827.94156.8825011557070.728346850.728346854.214.93834685TF-2.196108.80422327.1602197541518.6096915782670.32576135922697162113126WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:05FORECAST2026114-17029.28225.46627.37458.2155927515430.8578744791.1378744794.215.347874479TF-2.718105.28222328.0754085922319.0991043784010.30573479596274162114128WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026114-17040.31631.71236.01450.59931680.5807089750.6807089754.214.890708975TF8.316131.31622322.8047428452516.333699447770.7525944376527164113129WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:05FORECAST2026114-17040.31631.71236.01450.4885618166670.5807089750.6807089754.214.890708975TF8.316132.31622322.7273428053916.2940393971580.7525944376527164113129WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026114-17031.53222.02826.7857.1958614221950.5240160310.5540160314.214.764016031TF-0.468111.53222327.3756253061718.7245308980160.39543341252088162113126WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026114-17025.0722.15423.61255.9182476166960.0677165720.0777165724.334.407716572TF-6.9391.0722326.4963101111718.2571015147340.16787395634338161111121.5WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:05FORECAST2026114-17025.0722.15423.61255.8015452166960.0677165720.0777165724.334.407716572TF-6.9392.0722326.4158475928218.2145086788970.16787395634338161111121.5WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:03FORECAST2026114-17023.68422.13622.9155.4205089394840.0500000270.0500000274.334.380000027TF-8.31691.68422326.15296931318.075563551450.13300777071715161111121.5WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2026114-17023.30621.34422.32555.2242944004.334.33TF-8.69484.30622326.0175009331618.0040864510850.12443053841424161111121.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2026114-17023.30621.34422.32555.58956085004.284.28TF-8.69482.30622326.2696302255618.1371854629310.12443053841424161111121.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:05FORECAST2026114-17018.517.2417.8757.3452330742200.244.214.45TF-13.575.522327.478243866818.7793162212780.047170297751417161112123WETL