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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 20, 2026

[ Monday, January 19, 2026 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 21, 2026 ]

DAY 112 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/21/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.06°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.854
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 174

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 52 in
SWE DAY: 20
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -172

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-21 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026112-17244.8500236.0600840.4550551.568138333333005.35.3TF12.85002173.8500220321.38733609735 16.573346606450.8542801040501916 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-21 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026112-17244.8500236.0600840.4550551.568138333333005.35.3TF12.85002173.8500220321.38733609735 16.573346606450.8542801040501916 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-20 11:00:02FORECAST2026112-17237.74232.37835.0651.6362152005.35.3TF5.742166.74220321.4351452177816.5976943313080.64198573984503163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 07:00:04FORECAST2026112-17238.35431.4634.90751.7409267005.35.3TF6.354167.35420321.5086660263716.6351563222850.66394986396662163111122.5WETL
2026-01-20 03:00:04FORECAST2026112-17238.73231.49635.11451.7767443005.35.3TF6.732167.73220321.5338100551716.6479738670310.67724727797685163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 23:00:02FORECAST2026112-17238.89431.56835.23152.691024005.35.3TF6.894155.89420322.1748624515316.975723409630.68287880584689163111122.5WETL
2026-01-19 19:00:02FORECAST2026112-17239.99232.0936.04152.5189224005.35.3TF7.992156.99220322.0543061507516.9139451133170.71988892076421164111123WETL
2026-01-19 15:00:01FORECAST2026112-17240.29832.75636.52752.4763152005.35.3TF8.298157.29820322.0244518832116.8986566391310.72981779920293164111123WETL
2026-01-19 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17240.58633.76437.17551.7221776005.35.3TF8.586157.58620321.495503207516.62844751450.73899922063011164111123WETL
2026-01-19 07:00:05FORECAST2026112-17240.06432.70236.38351.511843216667005.35.3TF8.064157.06420321.3477948362316.5532172256250.72224093840852164111123WETL
2026-01-19 03:00:05FORECAST2026112-17240.49633.51237.00451.337281616667005.35.3TF8.496157.49620321.2251481439416.4908258926210.73614732814507164111123WETL
2026-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17240.38834.17837.28351.6654008005.35.3TF8.388146.38820321.4556391915216.608134438250.73270423655058164111123WETL
2026-01-18 19:00:03FORECAST2026112-17243.23233.85438.54351.5544056005.35.3TF11.232149.23220321.3776908514516.5684358249470.8152916417691164111123WETL
2026-01-18 15:00:01FORECAST2026112-17242.9833.81838.39951.5698544005.35.3TF10.98148.9820321.388541360716.57396028380.80868396642502164111123WETL
2026-01-18 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17242.83634.62838.73250.7626792005.35.3TF10.836149.83620320.8210491085816.2857359965060.80484406983981164111123WETL
2026-01-18 07:00:05FORECAST2026112-17242.18834.738.44450.590291433333005.35.3TF10.188150.18820320.6996993884316.2242912546430.78699384135543164111123WETL
2026-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2026112-17242.81835.36639.09250.499960233333005.35.3TF10.818150.81820320.6360909085916.1921098402550.80436081795239164111123WETL
2026-01-17 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17243.5235.8739.69550.3562872005.35.3TF11.52135.5220320.5348906632316.1409470118580.82266758038668164111123WETL
2026-01-17 19:00:03FORECAST2026112-17242.94435.4239.18250.6912408005.35.3TF10.944134.94420320.7707675914516.2602682215790.80772835055718164111123WETL
2026-01-17 15:00:02FORECAST2026112-17242.45835.56439.01150.7174152005.35.3TF10.458133.45820320.7891913551216.269598609630.79454424367797164111123WETL
2026-01-17 11:00:04FORECAST2026112-17242.58435.20438.89450.2140008005.35.3TF10.584131.58420320.4346307284216.0903048037450.79801278580595164111123WETL
2026-01-17 07:00:05FORECAST2026112-17243.08835.47439.28150.166234933333005.35.3TF11.088137.08820320.4009651166816.073310088910.81153334146037164111123WETL
2026-01-17 03:00:08FORECAST2026112-17242.83635.7839.30850.065670133333005.35.3TF10.836136.83620320.3300732101916.0375397791280.80484406983981164111123WETL
2026-01-16 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17242.92636.03239.47950.6924808005.35.3TF10.926127.92620320.7716404363116.2607102240020.80724945214503164111123WETL
2026-01-16 19:00:02FORECAST2026112-17242.87235.3339.10150.4927288005.35.3TF10.872130.87220320.6309981225116.1895340330730.80580839932716164111123WETL
2026-01-16 15:00:02FORECAST2026112-17243.2535.90639.57850.4833808005.35.3TF11.25131.2520320.6244145913516.1862044155920.81575813855798164111123WETL
2026-01-16 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17244.43836.01440.22649.9403112005.35.3TF12.438131.43820320.2416776281815.9929690399610.84491867740039164111123WETL
2026-01-16 07:00:06FORECAST2026112-17245.12235.8740.49649.96735935005.35.3TF13.122136.12220320.2607527385616.0025841177890.86024778581423165111123.5WETL
2026-01-16 03:00:10FORECAST2026112-17243.7935.97839.88450.03820735005.35.3TF11.79132.7920320.3107105142616.0277737491390.82941149168753164111123WETL
2026-01-15 23:00:02FORECAST2026112-17244.40234.32239.36250.876548005.35.3TF12.402118.40220320.9011761655916.3263440924450.84408232217978164111123WETL
2026-01-15 19:00:06FORECAST2026112-17244.72635.11439.9250.231536005.35.3TF12.726123.72620320.446988596516.0965444437770.8515030059355165111123.5WETL
2026-01-15 15:00:03FORECAST2026112-17244.1534.6139.3850.6976568005.35.3TF12.15122.1520320.7752838299816.2625552495350.83814495271475164111123WETL
2026-01-15 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17243.03434.86238.94850.7675208005.35.3TF11.034120.03420320.8244565114716.2874622690950.81011193258894164111123WETL
2026-01-15 07:00:04FORECAST2026112-17241.7233.06237.39151.037355866667005.35.3TF9.72120.7220321.0142937808916.3837207499820.77353064331338164111123WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:05FORECAST2026112-17241.933.15237.52650.928230266667005.35.3TF9.9122.920320.9375362337816.344780746530.77876470771271164111123WETL
2026-01-14 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17243.68234.84439.26351.099936005.35.3TF11.682119.68220321.0583022459516.4060586970370.82673383188367164111123WETL
2026-01-14 19:00:06FORECAST2026112-17243.3435.76239.55151.1606488005.35.3TF11.34119.3420321.1009908543116.4277350224290.81807963376739164111123WETL
2026-01-14 15:00:02FORECAST2026112-17242.9835.34839.16451.2097504005.35.3TF10.98117.9820321.1355105381816.4452693392370.80868396642502164111123WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2026112-17244.31235.47439.89350.1094416005.35.3TF12.312118.31220320.3609315874616.0531073923030.84197848405574164111123WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:05FORECAST2026112-17243.2533.60238.42649.639092016667005.35.3TF11.25123.2520320.029160867315.8859569643090.81575813855798164111123WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2026112-17244.02434.19639.1149.628956816667005.35.3TF12.024123.02420320.0220074328415.8823583872680.83512188211492164111123WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17239.48832.16235.82553.8829248005.35.3TF7.488106.48820323.0083381815917.4046339960120.7031604060338164111123WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:05FORECAST2026112-17240.3730.88435.62753.3640616005.35.3TF8.37113.3720322.6458161829717.217691209770.73212819454061164111123WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2026112-17240.17230.27235.22253.3556976005.35.3TF8.172114.17220322.6399684668317.214680591190.72575080200327164111123WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17241.50434.39437.94951.2808352005.35.3TF9.504122.50420321.1854773480516.4706595325180.76715863531128164111123WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:05FORECAST2026112-17242.18834.39438.29151.170080216667005.35.3TF10.188124.18820321.1076217161216.4311027613970.78699384135543164111123WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:06FORECAST2026112-17237.05831.53234.29551.623605816667005.35.3TF5.058115.05820321.426290505616.5931841201740.61687260342819163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17237.32825.2531.28955.0439272005.425.42TF5.328108.32820323.8177847807417.8242025715360.62685116944598163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:05FORECAST2026112-17235.61825.2530.43454.9272248005.425.42TF3.618108.61820323.7365281652517.7819490585040.56249200823232163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2026112-17236.26624.56630.41654.8313832005.425.42TF4.266110.26620323.6697783257317.7472616456370.58717516854809163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2026112-17236.30228.92232.61255.2242944005.425.42TF4.302100.30220323.9433220441717.8895413854820.5885373401794163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2026112-17236.2329.73232.98155.58956085005.375.37TF4.2398.2320324.1973748191718.0219896949210.58581194657699163111122.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:05FORECAST2026112-17235.1529.24632.19855.438910450.0255905650.0255905655.35.325590565TF3.1598.1520324.0926219171917.9673418439730.54450693511947163111122.5WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:05FORECAST2026112-17236.0529.3932.7257.07758005.695.69TF4.0597.0520325.2299001988518.5633356469920.57898063909368163111122.5WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:05FORECAST2026112-17237.52629.85833.69256.8241016005.625.62TF5.526106.52620325.0542890818218.4709179483010.63411552606758163111122.5WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:04FORECAST2026112-17238.96630.97434.9757.7492584005.65.6TF6.96697.96620325.6946960061718.808627159170.68536828790324163111122.5WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2026112-17245.2329.26437.24758.164597644849005.65.6TF13.23101.2320325.981710750118.9605950453590.86257086976999165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:07FORECAST2026112-17245.2329.26437.24758.715508521955005.775.77TF13.2395.2320326.3619436233519.1625074820580.86257086976999165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:05FORECAST2026112-17232.3624.87228.61661.9612740788220.3326773450.3326773455.826.152677345TF0.3684.3620328.591367171320.3599397612360.43666541203768162112124WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2026112-17235.99633.90834.95262.7575982017860.027559070.027559075.435.45755907TF3.99687.99620329.1355373298320.6557558056740.5769265026888163111122.5WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:06FORECAST2026112-17236.53633.1734.85362.4136450891320.027559070.027559075.25.22755907TF4.53687.53620328.9006311042220.527887259330.59736476269058163111122.5WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:04FORECAST2026112-17235.34829.85832.60362.7413448761560.0114173290.0114173295.25.211417329TF3.34881.34820329.1244415773220.6497100961750.55212932392513163111122.5WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2026112-17237.7636.35637.05862.463469083284005.165.16TF5.7687.7620328.9346716125920.5464006906930.64263893040083163111122.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:06FORECAST2026112-17237.7636.35637.05861.771342069951005.355.35TF5.7689.7620328.4614139900620.289502360360.64263893040083163111122.5WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:08FORECAST2026112-17230.68630.66830.67762.86512815005.425.42TF-1.31472.68620329.2089338871520.695761816940.37366421725958162111122WETL