Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 19, 2026

[ Sunday, January 18, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 20, 2026 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/20/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 40.49°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.61°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.986 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 23 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 167 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 52 in SWE DAY: 19 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.69 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 16.70 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-20 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2026	111	-173	54.73004	40.49006	47.61005	52.0766675	0	0	6	6	T	F	22.73004	166.73004	19	320.69287884915	16.700616421445	0.98619850205975	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-20 03:00:02	OBSERVATION	2026	111	-173	54.73004	40.49006	47.61005	52.0766675	0	0	6	6	T	F	22.73004	166.73004	19	320.69287884915	16.700616421445	0.98619850205975	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-19 11:00:01	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.106	33.134	38.12	52.2775472	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.106	155.106	19	320.83428339102	16.772429393352	0.82877402339773	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-19 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.034	31.442	37.238	52.011223216667	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.034	155.034	19	320.64679530076	16.677232044097	0.82679806051113	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-19 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.448	31.694	37.571	51.892060816667	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.448	155.448	19	320.56286568031	16.634667721448	0.837962510419	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 23:00:01	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.358	31.73	37.544	52.3109048	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.358	144.358	19	320.8577577048	16.784359617637	0.83557612554026	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 19:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.214	33.08	38.147	52.283156	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.214	144.214	19	320.83823053863	16.774435258015	0.83171089260608	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 15:00:01	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.214	33.206	38.21	52.2559976	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.214	144.214	19	320.81911751133	16.764723034706	0.83171089260608	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.826	33.17	38.498	51.5379728	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.826	144.826	19	320.31332101912	16.508299226161	0.84773834029734	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.466	33.188	38.327	51.424329833333	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.466	146.466	19	320.23318318844	16.467776835861	0.83843707372746	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.322	33.494	38.408	51.358205033333	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.322	146.322	19	320.18654318847	16.444206133988	0.83461524102659	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-17 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	42.872	33.62	38.246	51.2882336	0	0	6	6	T	F	10.872	129.872	19	320.13718150022	16.419270548829	0.82229942297281	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-17 19:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.348	32.306	38.327	51.4696832	0	0	6	6	T	F	12.348	130.348	19	320.26516788351	16.483946730959	0.86058314801968	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.034	32.396	37.715	51.5119952	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.034	129.034	19	320.29500438412	16.499034728419	0.82679806051113	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-17 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.394	30.938	37.166	51.0304256	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.394	127.394	19	319.95523386327	16.32745175699	0.83653339290187	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-17 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.898	32.54	38.219	51.014836533333	0	0	6	6	T	F	11.898	131.898	19	319.94422808068	16.321902495319	0.84955517584995	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-17 03:00:08	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.312	33.872	39.092	50.926178133333	0	0	6	6	T	F	12.312	132.312	19	319.88162752278	16.290348744806	0.85972163552888	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.338	34.214	39.776	51.5707008	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.338	123.338	19	320.33639559637	16.519972412651	0.88287533838159	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 19:00:01	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.986	35.204	40.595	51.4058808	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.986	125.986	19	320.2201712653	16.46119995382	0.89602853514055	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.68	35.366	40.523	51.3962376	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.68	125.68	19	320.21336976781	16.457762435283	0.88995677788954	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.716	35.834	40.775	50.9450736	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.716	124.716	19	319.89497055128	16.297072819005	0.89068398548616	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.688	35.042	40.865	50.98068255	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.688	128.688	19	319.92011406086	16.309745776296	0.90903496379805	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-16 03:00:10	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.284	34.988	40.136	51.00046095	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.284	127.284	19	319.93407862342	16.316785483408	0.88172843910426	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.824	36.068	40.946	51.7782856	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.824	111.824	19	320.48270670327	16.594045117543	0.8928449440693	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.346	38.336	42.341	51.1613176	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.346	117.346	19	320.04762559956	16.374058220425	0.90285719752126	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 15:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.96	35.15	40.055	51.5625928	0	0	6	6	T	F	12.96	115.96	19	320.33067930382	16.51708037829	0.87468077780743	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.834	33.476	39.155	51.5204776	0	0	6	6	T	F	12.834	114.834	19	320.30098540149	16.502059743636	0.87186262646163	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 07:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.158	34.196	39.677	51.611323066667	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.158	117.158	19	320.36503328632	16.534463232203	0.87902161986814	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-15 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.554	34.016	39.785	51.512923066667	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.554	118.554	19	320.29565863763	16.499365621987	0.88738432230443	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	47.876	35.438	41.657	52.13166	0	0	6	6	T	F	15.876	113.876	19	320.73159669905	16.720270550372	0.92824209908694	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	47.228	36.446	41.837	52.19316	0	0	6	6	T	F	15.228	114.228	19	320.77488979383	16.742255146992	0.91819044270444	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.95	36.14	41.045	52.1871576	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.95	112.95	19	320.77066468559	16.740109231404	0.89532704734328	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.13	37.382	41.756	51.1917432	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.13	112.13	19	320.06909748588	16.384895044753	0.89880050335472	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.76	38.066	42.413	50.611382416667	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.76	117.76	19	319.65924038461	16.178396058127	0.91029769395668	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-14 03:00:07	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	47.156	37.67	42.413	50.657925616667	0	0	6	6	T	F	15.156	117.156	19	319.69213198727	16.194940242445	0.91701134189522	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.004	38.372	42.188	54.4570888	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.004	105.004	19	322.3638911912	17.554999048513	0.89637800200315	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	47.606	38.912	43.259	53.9185456	0	0	6	6	T	F	15.606	110.606	19	321.98672752067	17.361056050418	0.92417507369763	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	48.128	38.714	43.421	53.89306	0	0	6	6	T	F	16.128	112.128	19	321.96886613171	17.351887420568	0.93188553005186	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	47.534	38.966	43.25	52.0655752	0	0	6	6	T	F	15.534	118.534	19	320.68506858317	16.696652553834	0.92306153149762	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	46.796	39.47	43.133	51.991621816667	0	0	6	6	T	F	14.796	119.796	19	320.63299119767	16.670229220296	0.91092416719282	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-13 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.266	37.472	41.369	51.961413016667	0	0	6	6	T	F	13.266	116.266	19	320.61171558625	16.659437771559	0.88134438610499	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-12 23:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.564	36.572	40.568	55.2816616	0	0	6.12	6.12	T	F	12.564	108.564	19	322.94037421822	17.852680484509	0.86567678797724	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-12 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.212	34.718	39.965	55.0714792	0	0	6.12	6.12	T	F	13.212	111.212	19	322.79354417604	17.776717953985	0.88018695948763	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	45.5	34.934	40.217	55.0015168	0	0	6.12	6.12	T	F	13.5	111.5	19	322.74465217793	17.751445408874	0.88626883560923	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-12 11:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.214	32.198	37.706	55.3653016	0	0	6.12	6.12	T	F	11.214	102.214	19	322.99878197644	17.882924980558	0.83171089260608	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-12 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	40.568	32.648	36.608	55.74591845	0	0	6.07	6.07	T	F	8.568	99.568	19	323.26441892185	18.020671935004	0.7506117005471	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-12 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	40.694	33.008	36.851	55.54301765	0	0	6	6	T	F	8.694	100.694	19	323.12284404447	17.94721782988	0.75489109539167	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-11 23:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	40.964	32.468	36.716	57.2359056	0	0	6.39	6.39	T	F	8.964	98.964	19	324.30183146112	18.561709011416	0.76392686370068	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-11 19:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.7	34.106	38.903	57.1162512	0	0	6.32	6.32	T	F	11.7	106.7	19	324.21866627316	18.518154786587	0.8445240617796	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-11 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	44.888	35.852	40.37	58.208196	0	0	6.3	6.3	T	F	12.888	96.888	19	324.97668066511	18.916306323584	0.87307573373539	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-11 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.106	35.582	39.344	58.441101644849	0	0	6.3	6.3	T	F	11.106	94.106	19	325.13808898689	19.001428107095	0.82877402339773	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-11 07:00:07	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	42.512	35.168	38.84	58.964362121955	0	0	6.47	6.47	T	F	10.512	87.512	19	325.5003710227	19.192921747813	0.81204197013746	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-11 03:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	41.81	33.224	37.517	58.942998723699	0	0	6.52	6.52	T	F	9.81	89.81	19	325.48558939199	19.185096680115	0.79101709382714	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-10 23:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	42.026	34.952	38.489	62.870856601786	0	0	6.13	6.13	T	F	10.026	90.026	19	328.18988980962	20.633579500377	0.79762902260525	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-10 19:00:06	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	43.502	37.094	40.298	62.549535489132	0	0	5.9	5.9	T	F	11.502	88.502	19	327.96967453302	20.514350796562	0.83938348624476	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-10 15:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	42.35	35.78	39.065	62.809732876156	0	0	5.9	5.9	T	F	10.35	84.35	19	328.14801291452	20.610889035002	0.80730947736404	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-10 11:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	49.658	38.102	43.88	62.676209883284	0	0	5.86	5.86	T	F	17.658	87.658	19	328.05651144378	20.561338764828	0.95103357248129	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-10 07:00:06	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	49.964	38.102	44.033	61.984082869951	0	0	6.05	6.05	T	F	17.964	89.964	19	327.58170865557	20.304851775987	0.95429166297551	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2026-01-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	42.62	30.704	36.662	62.86512815	0	0	6.12	6.12	T	F	10.62	79.62	19	328.18596542681	20.631452773588	0.81515682710568	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-09 23:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	39.884	31.298	35.591	67.891540425413	0	0	6.25	6.25	T	F	7.884	70.884	19	331.60753977493	22.513346692001	0.72670600329508	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-09 19:00:04	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	40.154	31.298	35.726	66.485262293299	0	0	6.56	6.56	T	F	8.154	85.154	19	330.6546565547	21.98366156954	0.73627626434294	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-09 15:00:02	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	39.254	31.586	35.42	66.321889658632	0	0	6.58	6.58	T	F	7.254	85.254	19	330.54373567938	21.92228516508	0.70372853221477	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2026-01-09 11:00:03	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	31.874	30.308	31.091	67.188993194106	0	0	6.54	6.54	T	F	-0.126	73.874	19	331.13192464283	22.248420631178	0.3981483685511	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2026-01-09 07:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	31.874	30.308	31.091	68.084527110154	0	0	6.82	6.82	T	T	-0.126	59.874	19	331.73804067108	22.58622762354	0.3981483685511	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2026-01-09 03:00:05	FORECAST	2026	111	-173	30.02	29.552	29.786	68.5829649701	0	0	6.72	6.72	T	T	-1.98	58.02	19	332.07479705531	22.774674173898	0.32367886022745	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L