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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 16, 2026

[ Thursday, January 15, 2026 | Index | Today | Saturday, January 17, 2026 ]

DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.969
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 150

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 16
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 318.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-17 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026108-17647.9899439.7000443.8449953.123253333333006.586.58TF15.98994149.9899416318.25900254955 16.9069536180540.9686967123853616 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-17 03:00:06OBSERVATION2026108-17647.9899439.7000443.8449953.123253333333006.586.58TF15.98994149.9899416318.25900254955 16.9069536180540.9686967123853616 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-16 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17636.6829.4833.0853.6913192006.586.58TF4.68138.6816318.6622020380417.1093940065990.65860319334911163111122.5WETL
2026-01-16 07:00:05FORECAST2026108-17639.8329.7534.7953.64732255006.586.58TF7.83141.8316318.6309950540917.0936997660940.79184525513636164111123WETL
2026-01-16 03:00:09FORECAST2026108-17640.44229.71435.07853.57096415006.586.58TF8.442142.44216318.5768254838217.0664676970140.81364007168738164111123WETL
2026-01-15 23:00:01FORECAST2026108-17640.38830.0235.20454.559168006.586.58TF8.388126.38816319.2770580316917.4194906476970.8117757335899164111123WETL
2026-01-15 19:00:01FORECAST2026108-17640.11830.54235.3354.5100664006.586.58TF8.118126.11816319.2423065507617.4019193277710.80228288699773164111123WETL
2026-01-15 15:00:02FORECAST2026108-17640.78432.75636.7754.4698208006.586.58TF8.784126.78416319.2138196397517.3875195526610.82518079971036164111123WETL
2026-01-15 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17640.58632.03636.31154.1110544006.586.58TF8.586126.58616318.9597464694817.259248192620.81855557806262164111123WETL
2026-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2026108-17640.29832.61236.45554.366818266667006.586.58TF8.298129.29816319.1408984293517.3506752263690.80864309443011164111123WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2026108-17640.60432.59436.59954.284752666667006.586.58TF8.604129.60416319.0827859792617.3213301170750.81916427146197164111123WETL
2026-01-14 23:00:02FORECAST2026108-17642.7134.95238.83155.5079608006.586.58TF10.71120.7116319.9477124115917.7596450785920.88151934265992165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 19:00:03FORECAST2026108-17644.47435.16839.82155.4288472006.586.58TF12.474122.47416319.8918526918217.731236623380.92063157953382165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 15:00:01FORECAST2026108-17644.8735.43840.15455.3646904006.586.58TF12.87122.8716319.8465452730317.7082049545510.9278907031331165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17645.37435.16840.27154.595596006.586.58TF13.374122.37416319.3028370174317.4325286914570.93638239115222165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2026108-17645.89637.02241.45954.248443216667006.586.58TF13.896124.89616319.0570705962417.3083493771160.94433796380542165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2026108-17645.62636.53641.08154.234962416667006.586.58TF13.626124.62616319.0475225073417.3035303923160.94032666160693165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026108-17646.27437.32841.80158.2171496006.586.58TF14.274113.27416321.8538306367118.737412607510.94959384539773165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2026108-17646.38236.89641.63957.9757744006.586.58TF14.382115.38216321.6845367692418.6499101317020.95102080944617165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2026108-17646.47237.34641.90957.9858112006.586.58TF14.472115.47216321.6915783706618.6535471280310.95218521054223165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17647.71437.81442.76456.5903024006.586.58TF15.714117.71416320.710794899918.1491208663290.96610581103414165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2026108-17648.2937.88643.08856.459769016667006.586.58TF16.29120.2916320.61887625318.1020676956280.9713264429737165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:05FORECAST2026108-17647.87638.69643.28656.293374616667006.586.58TF15.876120.87616320.501660898118.0421200622010.96764739633287165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2026108-17648.93837.32843.13359.214316006.76.7TF16.938114.93816322.552116424319.0997029484170.97638405832813165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026108-17649.71238.64244.17759.0431006.76.7TF17.712116.71216322.432344715919.0374051722950.98142289941694165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:02FORECAST2026108-17649.2837.8543.56559.0108248006.76.7TF17.28117.2816322.4097612251119.0256659334650.97873667723017165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2026108-17647.33639.12843.23258.9020928006.76.7TF15.336112.33616322.3336660218418.9861275085830.96227373689416165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:05FORECAST2026108-17647.37239.23643.30459.16069365006.656.65TF15.372112.37216322.5146112767619.0801881153930.96265325877106165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2026108-17647.0339.27243.15158.92404165006.586.58TF15.03113.0316322.349028438518.9941075775470.95891955718119165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2026108-17648.05638.64243.34960.6658344006.976.97TT16.056113.05616323.5654155314819.62936591620.96929212218949165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026108-17649.0137.83243.42160.9768768006.96.9TT17.01113.0116323.7820673439719.7432192304830.97689671586392165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026108-17644.92436.19440.55961.8935712006.886.88TT12.924104.92416324.4195820895420.0794865027330.92883995876146165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17645.3237.88641.60362.107092044849006.886.88TT13.32104.3216324.5678620521120.1579660832710.93551145928417165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2026108-17645.4137.9441.67562.359752521955007.057.05TT13.41103.4116324.7432187579420.2509067549280.93695792643432165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026108-17645.0538.13841.59462.316445923699007.17.1TT13.05105.0516324.7131701982120.234970711370.93101767649472165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2026108-17645.08638.17441.6366.595887001786006.716.71TF13.086100.08616327.6665705438321.8212459061990.93163038219923165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:05FORECAST2026108-17644.639.16441.88266.458672289132006.486.48TF12.699.616327.5723709232721.7700248501640.9229987595868165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026108-17644.36639.21841.79266.558576076156006.486.48TF12.36697.36616327.6409593754121.8073157202530.91855922509963165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:04FORECAST2026108-17642.8939.48841.18966.705886683284006.446.44TF10.8994.8916327.7420629986421.8623249157330.88604127236334165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026108-17643.14239.00241.07266.006674869951006.636.63TF11.14297.14216327.2618367270321.6014656541840.89216397716093165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2026108-17643.4338.53440.98266.10858895006.76.7TF11.4395.4316327.3318855323321.6394490708850.89886788496939165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2026108-17644.00638.42641.21670.418944425413006.836.83TT12.00690.00616330.2779903547223.2578274477260.91135745274369165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2026108-17645.03238.69641.86469.183587093299007.147.14TT13.032101.03216329.4369251122422.7916282002510.93070974623502165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2026108-17644.9637.95841.45968.994532058632007.167.16TT12.96102.9616329.3079782429322.7204498620450.92946746382901165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026108-17645.35638.85842.10769.557481194106007.127.12TT13.35699.35616329.6917610557522.9325284694870.93609309974152165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:05FORECAST2026108-17644.88837.16641.02770.453015110154007.47.4TT12.88884.88816330.3011492380423.2707118581690.92820819062637165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026108-17644.13236.44640.28970.6985649701007.37.3TT12.13287.13216330.4679977064423.3636132063880.91392999860026165111123.5WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026108-17643.2537.86840.55961.801477924414008.078.07TT11.2585.2516324.355602909920.0456556328960.89471438238579165111123.5WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:06FORECAST2026108-17643.2537.86840.55962.213958386645008.248.24TT11.2587.2516324.642045397920.197266702940.89471438238579165111123.5WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:17FORECAST2026108-17644.07837.09440.58662.422545964663008.368.36TT12.07883.07816324.7867825186620.2740178604860.91283437936401165111123.5WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:05FORECAST2026108-17638.98433.4436.21265.519267288032008.688.68TT6.98466.98416326.9265750647821.419989655230.75936863240585164111123WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:06FORECAST2026108-17638.98433.4436.21265.781049147464008.988.98TT6.98468.98416327.1066924304621.5174214112320.75936863240585164111123WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2026108-17637.70632.39635.05166.691799839954008.98.9TT5.70669.70616327.7323964174721.8570633829420.70550163390821164111123WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2026108-17635.16830.66832.91852.571324255682009.799.79TT3.16861.16816317.8666989542216.7106733008050.58498792656053163111122.5WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026108-17638.22833.60235.91551.765463136256009.699.69TT6.22865.22816317.2929153277416.4248147117930.72816303451913164111123WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:04FORECAST2026108-17640.51435.49238.00350.920916595574009.659.65TT8.51476.51416316.6903254501816.1261616488740.81610803000477164111123WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026108-17640.35234.0737.21157.808772930463007.127.12TT8.35282.35216321.5673458095518.5894136757560.81052648557942164111123WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:06FORECAST2026108-17640.0131.85635.93357.478183040814007.17.1TT8.0184.0116321.3352122967318.469764149850.7984063031181164111123WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:08FORECAST2026108-17639.43431.56835.50158.636622036756007.057.05TT7.43484.43416322.1477901565218.8896582113840.77697588397238164111123WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026108-17630.07428.23829.15657.49978596781800.078.328.39TT-1.92664.07416321.3503873870418.477578495430.3303797289123162111122WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:06FORECAST2026108-17630.07428.23829.15655.20014141105300.077.897.96TT-1.92663.07416319.7303073099217.6491581769070.3303797289123162111122WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026108-17630.77627.3229.04856.14075743278200.078.128.19TT-1.22463.77616320.3941072395317.9871678574270.36361971598278162111122WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026108-17627.89626.58227.23963.895966074708007.587.58TT-4.10458.89616325.8069949496320.8177526962040.23627969154013161111121.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:07FORECAST2026108-17627.89626.58227.23963.94974993728007.677.67TT-4.10455.89616325.8441633112520.8376527622770.23627969154013161111121.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2026108-17633.49432.68433.08963.464652033316007.57.5TT1.49467.49416325.5087434711420.6582991381980.49996228686437163111122.5WETL