MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 15, 2026

[ Wednesday, January 14, 2026 | Index | Today | Friday, January 16, 2026 ]

DAY 107 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/16/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.994
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.58 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.58 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 54 in
SWE DAY: 15
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 317.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -177

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-16 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026107-17755.9099437.2999246.6049353.99103375006.586.58TF23.90994142.9099415317.81238462161 17.1590191842730.9943680315405816 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-16 03:00:09OBSERVATION2026107-17755.9099437.2999246.6049353.99103375006.586.58TF23.90994142.9099415317.81238462161 17.1590191842730.9943680315405816 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-15 11:00:01FORECAST2026107-17739.81230.8335.32154.5746168006.586.58TF7.812126.81215318.227251204617.3671302898090.76744553265595164111123WETL
2026-01-15 07:00:03FORECAST2026107-17743.26831.22637.24754.847797466667006.586.58TF11.268130.26815318.4212429108717.464703840260.86791917047343165111123.5WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:04FORECAST2026107-17743.28629.6636.47354.769963066667006.586.58TF11.286130.28615318.3659846729117.4368932222180.86834905224381165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 23:00:01FORECAST2026107-17744.67232.5438.60656.2818768006.586.58TF12.672118.67215319.4374096249417.9785369338220.89859800832035165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 19:00:02FORECAST2026107-17744.52832.25238.3956.2694784006.586.58TF12.528118.52815319.4286401607817.9740829678680.89571315033245165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 15:00:01FORECAST2026107-17744.67234.32239.49756.2519632006.586.58TF12.672118.67215319.4162510820317.9677912013480.89859800832035165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2026107-17744.31233.47638.89455.5165216006.586.58TF12.312118.31215318.8955512180817.7039717573420.89127542798436165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:04FORECAST2026107-17745.1433.49439.31755.272590416667006.586.58TF13.14120.1415318.7226306253117.6166254190750.90757300012266165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:07FORECAST2026107-17745.37432.95439.16455.231951216667006.586.58TF13.374120.37415318.6938114537617.6020810472670.91183441422614165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:02FORECAST2026107-17746.45433.51239.98359.3098816006.586.58TF14.454108.45415321.5708872718519.07233125010.92962661854034165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:03FORECAST2026107-17747.4834.26840.87459.0999944006.586.58TF15.48110.4815321.4235332218.996129013330.94384751838874165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:03FORECAST2026107-17747.15634.62840.89259.1298096006.586.58TF15.156110.15615321.4444701581419.0069503174230.93962406205123165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026107-17748.14633.63840.89257.9050248006.586.58TF16.146111.14615320.5830907289118.5633718191180.95179776935839165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2026107-17748.48834.86241.67557.795352216667006.586.58TF16.488113.48815320.5058282508918.5237472312550.95551648454619165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2026107-17748.72235.6942.20657.639683416667006.586.58TF16.722113.72215320.3961252547918.4675312276130.95792545340739165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2026107-17748.90236.24842.57560.6207472006.76.7TF16.902106.90215322.4894222803219.5495497427290.95970595538977165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:03FORECAST2026107-17749.35237.70643.52960.5511784006.76.7TF17.352108.35215322.4407516224519.5241674749210.96389129362894165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:01FORECAST2026107-17749.38837.02243.20560.5074888006.76.7TF17.388109.38815322.4101817771719.5082304628880.96421018945336165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:04FORECAST2026107-17748.45237.23842.84560.2949448006.76.7TF16.452106.45215322.2614152059619.4307342410130.95513623065199165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:05FORECAST2026107-17747.7535.7841.76560.54724805006.656.65TF15.75105.7515322.4380016745319.5227336681340.94718664173944165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2026107-17747.64236.46442.05360.31256405006.586.58TF15.642106.64215322.2737505545819.4371562219570.94587033705552165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:04FORECAST2026107-17748.237.36442.78262.1208752006.976.97TT16.2106.215323.536829374920.0983910002020.9524008929767165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026107-17747.33636.0541.69362.3462112006.96.9TT15.336105.33615323.6938171488920.1810830880990.94200001058829165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026107-17743.82634.10638.96662.8827864006.886.88TT11.826100.82615324.0672784786720.3782534518040.88079954349183165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2026107-17743.7934.32239.05663.199627244849006.886.88TT11.7999.7915324.2875637593820.4948531497330.87999622318886165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2026107-17744.09635.92440.0163.574795721955007.057.05TT12.09699.09615324.5481725019820.6330837687470.88670394562036165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:04FORECAST2026107-17744.72635.65440.1963.491440323699007.17.1TT12.726100.72615324.4902915847120.602355983770.89966475302258165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2026107-17744.79835.07839.93867.822639801786006.716.71TF12.79895.79815327.481654698722.2106703083230.90107434874421165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:05FORECAST2026107-17745.28436.66240.97367.661907489132006.486.48TF13.28496.28415327.3712311457722.1505619563880.91021301847226165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026107-17745.24836.33840.79367.753152076156006.486.48TF13.24894.24815327.4339219667522.1846803099060.9095583113141165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026107-17744.3335.45639.89367.957239483284006.446.44TF12.3393.3315327.574090383522.261030908710.8916503284813165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026107-17744.00634.55639.28167.217585269951006.636.63TF12.00695.00615327.065745861121.9845696612990.88475937345048165111123.5WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2026107-17743.733.74638.72367.24766735006.76.7TF11.792.715327.0864391051121.9958000516370.87797130230699165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:04FORECAST2026107-17743.17834.30438.74171.651404425413006.836.83TT11.17887.17815330.0987436091923.6520385786630.86575529190087165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2026107-17746.50835.13240.8270.341361493299007.147.14TT14.50896.50815329.2061482696623.1568086812530.93043807594239165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2026107-17746.68835.34841.01870.161556058632007.167.16TT14.68898.68815329.0834062016923.0890038521850.9330911339059165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026107-17744.76232.6338.69670.798305194106007.127.12TT12.76294.76215329.5178233898423.3293034272510.90037136652173165111123.5WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:05FORECAST2026107-17740.1930.97435.58271.655364710154007.47.4TT8.1981.1915330.1014374414923.6535388912160.78014443927143164111123WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026107-17740.15430.6535.40271.8236705701007.37.3TT8.15484.15415330.215896025523.7173177331460.77895240521993164111123WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026107-17741.79230.66836.2362.88368112441400.038.048.07TT9.79282.79215324.0679007902120.378582535950.82936274264054164111123WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:06FORECAST2026107-17741.79230.66836.2363.29616158664500.038.218.24TT9.79284.79215324.3546445459920.5304039925610.82936274264054164111123WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:16FORECAST2026107-17741.30627.8634.58363.52403556466300.038.338.36TT9.30680.30615324.5129267602220.6143707007090.81523378756881164111123WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026107-17736.28427.53631.9166.11566968803200.188.58.68TT4.28469.28415326.3066553892721.5739830447230.63174103071197163112125WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:06FORECAST2026107-17736.84228.86832.85566.37774674746400.188.88.98TT4.84270.84215326.4873883260321.6714971785460.65497181420797163112125WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2026107-17737.00429.13833.07167.14512863995400.188.728.9TT5.00473.00415327.015896981321.9575244701190.66161283642413163112125WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2026107-17737.18429.80433.49452.80492585568200.349.459.79TT5.18467.18415316.9672883495916.7374341599770.66893319408591163112125WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026107-17739.18232.05435.61852.30991033625600.349.359.69TT7.18268.18215316.6138384203516.5620414989860.74540411305499164112126WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:04FORECAST2026107-17742.2634.48438.37251.73980139557400.349.319.65TT10.2677.2615316.2062194205516.3604469928640.8422976441428164112126WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026107-17740.51433.47636.99558.47602333046300.047.087.12TT8.51482.51415320.9850019763118.7699264642950.79070575293839164111123WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026107-17739.16431.13635.1557.97224944081400.047.067.1TT7.16485.16415320.6304387116818.5876677713110.74475869066991164111123WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:08FORECAST2026107-17739.1131.17235.14159.07961883675600.047.017.05TT7.1186.1115321.4092241058418.9887344507910.74281731014114164111123WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026107-17736.1428.2232.1857.49978596781800.078.328.39TT4.1475.1415320.2974996393718.4170376752910.62566289797262163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:05FORECAST2026107-17736.1428.2232.1855.20014141105300.077.897.96TT4.1474.1415318.6712515461417.5906981489840.62566289797262163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026107-17736.55427.66232.10856.14075743278200.078.128.19TT4.55473.55415319.337578714217.9278535457660.64304808957148163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026107-17735.13228.54431.83863.895966074708007.587.58TT3.13272.13215324.7710745281920.75156156010.58231855064262163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026107-17735.11428.54431.82963.94974993728007.677.67TT3.11469.11415324.8083843982920.7714149598030.58153365086212163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2026107-17740.4631.38835.92463.476558433316007.57.5TT8.4675.4615324.4799565019720.5968709193370.78896652246249164111123WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:05FORECAST2026107-17733.20627.78830.49760.622169871128006.776.77TT1.20666.20615322.4904174979619.5500688713730.49711182003028162111122WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:09FORECAST2026107-17730.70427.26628.98560.742190826552006.766.76TT-1.29662.70415322.5743642015119.5938735860820.38719877765725162111122WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:05FORECAST2026107-17729.26426.22227.74361.897201642734006.836.83TT-2.73655.26415323.3809109107120.0163734500510.32728266379533162111122WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:05FORECAST2026107-17728.27426.7827.52761.130914635822006.596.59TF-3.72654.27415322.8460751414319.7358758599810.28842746452282162111122WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:07FORECAST2026107-17728.27426.7827.52761.972280780906006.776.77TT-3.72654.27415323.4332569871420.043896615890.28842746452282162111122WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:08FORECAST2026107-17731.67631.2831.47865.00284180954007.027.02TT-0.32444.67615325.5378883296821.1608878581060.42932687503746162111122WETL