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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 14, 2026

[ Tuesday, January 13, 2026 | Index | Today | Thursday, January 15, 2026 ]

DAY 106 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/15/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.83°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.989
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 55 in
SWE DAY: 14
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 317.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -178

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-15 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026106-17856.8299239.2300648.0299955.26235666666700.066.536.59TF24.82992117.8299214317.65245382251 17.5542231991820.9890503897131416 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-15 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026106-17856.8299239.2300648.0299955.26235666666700.066.536.59TF24.82992117.8299214317.65245382251 17.5542231991820.9890503897131416 5111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 11:00:01FORECAST2026106-17843.6133.85438.73256.219294400.066.536.59TF11.61104.6114318.3328024595217.8964455386490.83847715029479164111123WETL
2026-01-14 07:00:03FORECAST2026106-17845.35633.81839.58756.01797041666700.066.536.59TF13.356106.35614318.1898056031817.8243471171640.87697279098635165111123.5WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:06FORECAST2026106-17845.26634.3439.80355.99770001666700.066.536.59TF13.266106.26614318.1754038451217.8170908172010.87516060043975165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 23:00:01FORECAST2026106-17845.17634.59239.88460.175506400.066.536.59TF13.17693.17614321.1280433979519.3240426307130.87332989756651165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 19:00:01FORECAST2026106-17845.60834.82640.21760.086749600.066.536.59TF13.60893.60814321.0656402653419.2917907317870.88194884583355165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 15:00:02FORECAST2026106-17845.55434.91640.23560.088520800.066.536.59TF13.55493.55414321.0668856982519.292434239470.88089468062349165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026106-17845.89634.66440.2859.01084400.066.536.59TF13.89693.89614320.3080725959718.9016497039020.88745995694572165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2026106-17845.87835.74440.81158.96414741666700.066.536.59TF13.87895.87814320.2751456530818.8847509021830.88712097384291165111123.5WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2026106-17845.51835.16840.34358.90933861666700.066.536.59TF13.51895.51814320.2364935984818.8649200388070.88018823360527165111123.5WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2026106-17845.12236.17640.64961.881251200.186.536.71TT13.12289.12214322.3245893610419.9458488821870.8722225713856165112127WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2026106-17846.36435.92441.14461.85832400.186.536.71TT14.36490.36414322.3085407354619.9374661407810.89602038285008165112127WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:01FORECAST2026106-17846.50836.66241.58561.822211200.186.536.71TT14.50890.50814322.2832605327519.924263798880.89855713879335165112127WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:03FORECAST2026106-17845.91436.12241.01861.5744400.186.536.71TT13.91488.91414322.1097496185919.8337274513050.88779821458041165112127WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026106-17845.9535.65440.80261.6974456500.136.536.66TT13.9588.9514322.1959025072219.8786641835920.88847255542508165112127WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2026106-17845.48235.640.54161.5866472500.066.536.59TF13.48290.48214322.1183007529819.8381861612430.87947884648078165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:03FORECAST2026106-17844.81635.25840.03763.428611200.136.856.98TT12.81688.81614323.4055562037920.513165284370.86582111322784165112127WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:04FORECAST2026106-17844.3334.35839.34463.514022400.066.856.91TT12.3389.3314323.4650997903220.5445695937010.8552091489752165111123.5WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026106-17842.56634.21438.3963.685336800.046.856.89TT10.56687.56614323.5844910242620.6075872941360.81206989687928164111123WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2026106-17842.2634.08838.17463.98151364484900.046.856.89TT10.2687.2614323.7907780117220.7166240814340.80385212539479164111123WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:06FORECAST2026106-17841.97234.75438.36364.46561092195500.086.987.06TT9.97285.97214324.1276175202720.8950848801220.79592242712274164111123WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026106-17842.65633.74638.20164.35667152369900.097.027.11TT10.65686.65614324.0518525579820.854898631720.81444593050309164111123WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2026106-17843.37633.45838.41768.76324540178600.066.666.72TT11.37682.37614327.0998625271322.4924481178430.83277876142798164111123WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:04FORECAST2026106-17843.5235.13239.32668.72256108913200.126.376.49TF11.5281.5214327.0718770948222.4772170541860.8363005824224164112126WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026106-17841.9935.16838.57968.73262567615600.146.356.49TF9.9979.9914327.0788004702922.480984759330.79642354795152164112126WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026106-17841.4534.75438.10268.89076028328400.256.26.45TF9.4580.4514327.1875571852422.5401995697220.78107340365697164112126WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026106-17842.00834.35838.18368.07022126995100.576.076.64TT10.00882.00814326.6227583148722.2332834302950.79692393568068164113129WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2026106-17841.6333.837.71568.0320137500.646.076.71TT9.6379.6314326.5964303675922.2190128414680.78626252866331164113129WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026106-17841.23433.65637.44572.52657402541300.476.376.84TT9.23475.23414329.6760692860123.9102758434790.77475200271652164112126WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2026106-17843.41235.58239.49771.53396949329900.256.97.15TT11.41281.41214328.9989657480123.5346019791450.83366375120281164112126WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2026106-17843.71835.70839.71371.38939125863200.276.97.17TT11.71882.71814328.9001994326623.479985022340.84106407331089164112126WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026106-17843.01633.04438.0371.69876359410600.776.367.13TT11.01681.01614329.111497987223.5968874902860.8237628218176164113129WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:05FORECAST2026106-17839.68631.5535.61872.22943031015400.836.587.41TT7.68671.68614329.4735521907923.7976869770030.72655217681595164113129WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026106-17839.61431.69435.65472.383172970100.826.497.31TT7.61474.61414329.5783539606423.8559270019340.72419231271316164113129WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2026106-17842.67433.49438.08463.57002112441401.726.368.08TT10.67471.67414323.5041317454120.5651644888910.814918895560991641151215WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:05FORECAST2026106-17842.67433.49438.08463.98250158664501.816.448.25TT10.67473.67414323.7914658529120.7169879776760.814918895560991641151215WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:14FORECAST2026106-17843.44832.52237.98564.09849476466301.776.68.37TT11.44870.44814323.8722125462220.7597213203140.834545718386411641151215WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026106-17842.06229.5735.81666.38686008803201.826.878.69TT10.06264.06214325.4603647924421.6062917016760.798420695428421641151215WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026106-17842.7132.52237.61666.70413954746401.827.178.99TT10.7164.7114325.6798326775721.7241930067190.815862581625471641151215WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:07FORECAST2026106-17842.65632.10837.38267.45312063995401.737.188.91TT10.65666.65614326.1972152902222.0030201153880.814445930503091641151215WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2026106-17842.76432.12637.44553.10297945568202.587.229.8TT10.76460.76414316.111123911216.7864425187690.817272496334121641151215WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026106-17838.94833.3536.14952.81480073625602.587.129.7TT6.94859.94814315.9047862875916.6844483394080.701902122823921641151215WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2026106-17841.4536.0538.7552.57600459557402.67.069.66TT9.4566.4514315.7336924084416.6000160630440.781073403656971641151215WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026106-17842.42233.74638.08459.10460253046300.286.857.13TT10.42273.42214320.3741723173518.9355881158430.80822946483425164112126WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026106-17841.79232.41437.10358.40068304081400.286.837.11TT9.79276.79214319.8775246266418.6810659276010.79087100924017164112126WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2026106-17841.73832.46837.10359.49732683675600.236.837.06TT9.73877.73814320.6508717787319.077869718710.78934137542068164112126WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026106-17839.45229.58834.5257.6792675678180.0704724790.4304724797.978.400472479TT7.45270.45214319.3676105096418.420889859080.71884634938488164112126WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:05FORECAST2026106-17838.08429.58833.83655.3796230110530.0704724790.4304724797.547.970472479TT6.08469.08414317.7359149495417.5960951869780.67182510197211163112125WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:04FORECAST2026106-17837.27428.72432.99956.3470038327820.070866180.430866187.778.20086618TT5.27468.27414318.4234743078617.9422087272720.64257395646807163112125WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026106-17838.58832.03635.31263.96346847470800.057.547.59TT6.58867.58814323.7782140010220.7099775840520.68952172607159163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026106-17838.8432.55835.69964.0476579372800.067.627.68TT6.8464.8414323.8368262751820.7409902767670.69821162008366163111122.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2026106-17839.4734.37636.92363.78523923331600.077.447.51TT7.4766.4714323.6540903519720.6443535819420.71944280592437164111123WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:05FORECAST2026106-17839.86631.85635.86160.637225071128006.786.78TT7.86663.86614321.4524417204219.4919840582650.73240780519382164111123WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:08FORECAST2026106-17839.05631.51435.28560.742190826552006.776.77TT7.05663.05614321.5261364140519.5302019337860.70557194576372164111123WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:05FORECAST2026106-17838.19230.14634.16961.897201642734006.846.84TT6.19257.19214322.3357538313919.9516811515640.67565159892667163111122.5WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:05FORECAST2026106-17839.45228.61634.03461.13091463582200.056.556.6TF7.45257.45214321.7988818197819.6718599744280.71884634938488164111123WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:07FORECAST2026106-17839.48828.61634.05261.97228078090600.056.736.78TT7.48857.48814322.3882992013319.9791381985840.72003865016134164111123WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2026106-17837.8532.07234.96165.00284180954007.037.03TT5.8543.8514324.5009433576721.0934834881250.66347272088431163111122.5WETL
2026-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026106-17832.37826.45629.41759.19259246163007.37.3TT0.37835.37814320.4361908620218.9674488556520.45388732528315162111122WETL
2026-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026106-17832.52226.45629.48957.383504536712007.227.22TT0.52250.52214319.1582877510818.3144210530930.45950009337283162111122WETL
2026-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026106-17836.84232.73834.7957.220786893531007.127.12TT4.84251.84214319.0430592066118.2558949007220.62661024337339163111122.5WETL
2026-01-04 11:00:04FORECAST2026106-17839.95636.33838.14763.20667432555400.667.758.41TT7.95658.95614323.2507746663720.431606439820.73531175937331164113129WETL
2026-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026106-17839.95636.33838.14763.21696942204200.667.648.3TT7.95657.95614323.2579565247620.4353883530580.73531175937331164113129WETL
2026-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2026106-17840.56840.06440.31663.2609144109140.0098425251.0698425257.928.989842525TT8.56860.56814323.2886104334620.4515331146540.754625174869261641141212WETL