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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 13, 2026

[ Monday, January 12, 2026 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 14, 2026 ]

DAY 105 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/14/2026 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.04°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.995
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 80

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.82 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 57 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 317.69 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.05 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -179

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-14 07:00:03OBSERVATION2026105-17957.5000638.5748.0350356.81255041666700.845.826.66TT25.5000679.5000613317.69098300437 18.0488349888560.9954499162795416 51131210.5WETL
2026-01-14 03:00:05OBSERVATION2026105-17957.5000638.5748.0350356.81255041666700.845.826.66TT25.5000679.5000613317.69098300437 18.0488349888560.9954499162795416 51131210.5WETL
2026-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2026105-17945.21235.36640.28959.973884800.845.826.66TT13.21267.21213319.9319929202619.1875644872340.902898640443861651131210.5WETL
2026-01-13 07:00:04FORECAST2026105-17946.63435.63641.13559.92246501666700.845.826.66TT14.63468.63413319.8956861904419.1689380647290.926390992867851651131210.5WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2026105-17946.54435.40240.97359.88458101666700.845.826.66TT14.54468.54413319.8689338381619.1552170831460.925046012501721651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 23:00:01FORECAST2026105-17946.32835.2440.78462.888473600.965.826.78TT14.32863.32813321.9822072296120.2489695390290.921741924332111651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2026105-17946.16635.47440.8262.863381600.965.826.78TT14.16663.16613321.964621412920.2397848575790.919192477947131651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 15:00:01FORECAST2026105-17946.43636.10441.2762.86249600.965.826.78TT14.43663.43613321.9640007165420.2394607071880.923407472660251651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17945.28434.23239.75862.583827200.965.826.78TT13.28462.28413321.768618902620.1375116437830.904206474201161651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026105-17944.47434.30439.38962.7353688500.915.826.73TT12.47462.47413321.8748857783620.1929396828570.88873426573831651131210.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2026105-17944.88834.89839.89362.6688504500.845.826.66TT12.88863.88813321.8282455360320.1686061900830.896851609593291651131210.5WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:03FORECAST2026105-17944.5135.04239.77664.434160801.235.827.05TT12.5162.5113323.0633493397120.8163157999420.88945771130141651141214WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:03FORECAST2026105-17947.15634.59240.87464.417629601.165.826.98TT15.15664.15613323.0518089131420.8102317681770.933831935096271651141214WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2026105-17946.4934.53840.51464.499401.145.826.96TT14.4964.4913323.1088880795320.8403294157970.92423010467921651141214WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:02FORECAST2026105-17946.61635.36640.99164.75523284484901.145.826.96TT14.61663.61613323.2873935788720.9345504470040.926123478487561651141214WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2026105-17946.16635.81640.99165.26816132195501.315.827.13TT14.16663.16613323.6449364480721.1237099231260.919192477947131651141214WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026105-17946.05836.69841.37865.18205072369901.365.827.18TT14.05863.05813323.5849445678721.0919302702480.917458448339451651141214WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2026105-17946.27437.11241.69369.66734460178600.955.846.79TT14.27458.27413326.6923844185222.7597909240640.920898952711961651131210.5WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:04FORECAST2026105-17946.4937.29241.89169.69868908913200.725.846.56TT14.4957.4913326.7139757527522.7715358170650.92423010467921651131210.5WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2026105-17945.21236.0540.63169.61714327615600.725.846.56TT13.21257.21213326.657800159822.7409828759990.902898640443861651131210.5WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17945.53636.4644169.72470028328400.685.846.52TT13.53657.53613326.7318919966122.7812832424540.908682172614491651131210.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:05FORECAST2026105-17945.42837.00441.21668.91026206995100.875.846.71TT13.42859.42813326.1703532165222.4764845195990.906783310453891651131210.5WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:06FORECAST2026105-17944.7837.441.0968.8337769500.965.826.78TT12.7856.7813326.1175585708722.4479032861460.894776585012131651131210.5WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026105-17943.9737.00440.48773.32745162541300.995.926.91TT11.9752.9713329.2020288753324.1395458473440.87824972750131651131210.5WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:03FORECAST2026105-17945.75237.90441.82872.53322149329901.096.137.22TT13.75256.75213328.6594253664723.8387268959670.912393886875811651141214WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2026105-17946.70638.0342.36872.47110245863201.136.117.24TT14.70657.70613328.6169406048323.8152319722150.927453673695911651141214WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17945.89638.71442.30572.59164519410601.325.887.2TT13.89656.89613328.6993766802623.8608285274970.914805275801521651141214WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2026105-17943.37637.97640.67672.81756711015401.525.967.48TT11.37651.37613328.8538109000123.9463344446410.865027905994461651151217.5WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026105-17943.59238.13840.86572.969735370101.465.927.38TT11.59253.59213328.9577791441824.0039620920870.869945089276741651141214WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026105-17942.69237.38240.03764.4964571244140.0311023792.4011023795.758.151102379TT10.69247.69213323.1068340346720.8392460679230.848625695750841641151215WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:05FORECAST2026105-17942.69237.38240.03764.9089375866450.0311023792.5011023795.828.321102379TT10.69249.69213323.3945841731620.9911988799550.848625695750841641151215WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:13FORECAST2026105-17942.24235.8739.05664.9615611646630.0303149772.5403149775.98.440314977TT10.24246.24213323.4312731823121.0106004353980.837142037382331641151215WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026105-17939.45235.25837.35567.0462384880320.1803150582.9403150585.828.760315058TT7.45241.45213324.8807661807621.782033329530.75385320856451641151215WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026105-17939.30835.88837.59867.5104291474640.1803150583.0303150586.039.060315058TT7.30841.30813325.2024782516921.954558866590.749012550407271641151215WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026105-17939.18236.26637.72468.2143430399540.181102462.871102466.118.98110246TT7.18243.18213325.689609798622.216702767350.744736069358471641151215WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2026105-17937.56236.0536.80653.8089994556820.3405513653.5205513656.359.870551365TT5.56236.56213315.5450878361516.9791654596180.686563405001491631151212.5WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2026105-17938.3934.80836.59953.3429135362560.3405513653.5105513656.269.770551365TT6.3940.3913315.2106217069116.8142529394210.717009906366731641151215WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2026105-17940.13636.7738.45353.3855413955740.3413387673.3613387676.379.731338767TT8.13644.13613315.2412281752716.8293236363430.776147927020161641151215WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026105-17942.09835.92439.01159.9073497304630.03937010.75937016.447.1993701TT10.09850.09813319.8850126140319.1634633242030.83335094926064164113129WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026105-17943.26836.55439.91159.2401334408140.03937010.75937016.427.1793701TT11.26854.26813319.413452977918.9220955772020.86252222998131651131210.5WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2026105-17943.30436.89640.160.3315620367560.03937010.49937016.637.1293701TT11.30455.30413320.1844122262519.3172257294310.863360949973621651131210.5WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026105-17942.83637.68840.26258.06450356781800.857.558.4TT10.83649.83613318.5806214938318.4982256333670.852184181934791651131210.5WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:05FORECAST2026105-17943.1637.90440.53255.72166141105300.857.127.97TT11.1650.1613316.9134869189417.6589460146940.859985074186481651131210.5WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026105-17943.1637.90440.53256.64653343278200.877.338.2TT11.1650.1613317.5727986700717.9893981572060.859985074186481651131210.5WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17942.9836.01439.49764.49669807470800.567.17.66TT10.9847.9813323.1070022118220.839334767480.855686370919371651131210.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026105-17941.0934.84437.96764.6090299372800.587.177.75TT9.0945.0913323.1853957710820.8806949106650.80524167011665164113129WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:06FORECAST2026105-17941.03634.35837.69764.43979603331600.567.027.58TT9.03646.03613323.0672831839320.818389833410.80365877998818164113129WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026105-17941.14431.85636.561.302310671128006.856.85TT9.14443.14413320.8683324582119.669970200880.80681678966027164111123WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:07FORECAST2026105-17940.11831.8235.96961.333968426552006.846.84TT8.11843.11813320.8906078725819.6814944116340.77557629422181164111123WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:04FORECAST2026105-17938.87631.40635.14162.33567204273400.056.866.91TT6.87637.87613321.5945145353420.0468101888170.73419411653976164111123WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:05FORECAST2026105-17939.3832.55835.96961.63147543582200.16.576.67TT7.3837.3813321.0998558805419.7898578801480.75143914800937164112126WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026105-17939.43432.61236.02362.48081198090600.16.756.85TT7.43437.43413321.6963572828820.0998496143340.75325087290384164112126WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2026105-17938.2132.03635.12365.4155314095400.067.047.1TT6.2125.2113323.7475763983321.1781197526470.71051289427511164111123WETL
2026-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026105-17938.3931.5534.9759.1950524616300.167.217.37TT6.3922.3913319.3815628587218.9058083686990.71700990636673164112126WETL
2026-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2026105-17939.4731.56835.51957.38704693671200.167.137.29TT7.4737.4713318.0995717482818.2547950544660.75445475596695164112126WETL
2026-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026105-17940.3732.01836.19457.31436529353100.137.067.19TT8.3734.3713318.0479126385818.2287142458130.78350358955008164112126WETL
2026-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17944.09632.28838.19263.4453927255540.3204726140.9604726147.528.480472614TT12.09638.09613322.3722375965720.453033218130.880933541271811651131210.5WETL
2026-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026105-17944.09632.28838.19263.4556878220420.3204726140.9604726147.418.370472614TT12.09637.09613322.3794424280120.4568092589560.880933541271811651131210.5WETL
2026-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2026105-17945.4133.72839.56963.3518360109140.6039373341.4739373347.589.053937334TT13.4139.4113322.3067550369420.418724690310.906464026639291651141214WETL
2026-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2026105-17938.9333.58436.25765.08699195927300.087.737.81TT6.9326.9313323.5187034036621.0568592471090.73607034965099164111123WETL
2026-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026105-17938.9333.7136.3265.01769892130500.17.597.69TT6.9321.9313323.4704068610321.0313015232430.73607034965099164112126WETL
2026-01-03 15:00:04FORECAST2026105-17938.94833.85436.40164.3884085246340.0677165720.1777165727.627.797716572TT6.94822.94813323.0314085024220.7994782969420.73669425914382164112126WETL
2026-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026105-17939.45234.93437.19367.37752412681900.087.717.79TT7.45231.45213325.1104058225321.9051342121880.7538532085645164111123WETL
2026-01-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026105-17939.45234.93437.19365.81653073876400.087.897.97TT7.45242.45213324.026668983421.3263112193250.7538532085645164111123WETL
2026-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026105-17926.97826.3326.65466.171719086299007.787.78TT-5.02219.97813324.2736401649421.4577442240860.26214326531674162111122WETL