MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 12, 2026

[ Sunday, January 11, 2026 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 13, 2026 ]

DAY 104 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/13/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.834
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 49

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.06 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.84 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.44 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.28 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 61 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 319.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -180

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-13 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026104-18041.9599435.4999238.7299361.0054554166670.0599999999999880.839999999999996.447.28TT9.9599448.9599412319.60384977437 19.4975784084050.8335322667355116 4113129WETL
2026-01-13 03:00:04OBSERVATION2026104-18041.9599435.4999238.7299361.0054554166670.0599999999999880.839999999999996.447.28TT9.9599448.9599412319.60384977437 19.4975784084050.8335322667355116 4113129WETL
2026-01-12 11:00:02FORECAST2026104-18037.432.8135.10563.5493280.1807087590.9607087596.447.400708759TT5.444.412321.3962456766620.4245154344740.68002261390187163113127.5WETL
2026-01-12 07:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.92233.02635.47463.652063250.1251969180.9051969186.447.345196918TT5.92244.92212321.4683892365120.4621262445580.70022215658021164113129WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:04FORECAST2026104-18039.07432.37835.72663.640156850.0625984590.8425984596.447.282598459TT7.07446.07412321.4600291945620.4577666789480.74262256266847164113129WETL
2026-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2026104-18038.62432.64835.63665.49107520.125984321.225984326.447.66598432TT6.62444.62412322.7566152145221.1376777583120.726436455285741641141212WETL
2026-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2026104-18038.24633.85436.0565.48763120.0606299541.1606299546.447.600629954TT6.24644.24612322.754208315721.1364085624260.712462125389611641141212WETL
2026-01-11 15:00:02FORECAST2026104-18038.6633.63836.14965.48497440.0401575021.1401575026.447.580157502TT6.6644.6612322.7523515507921.1354294788430.727749629096871641141212WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:01FORECAST2026104-18038.44433.20635.82565.8034880448490.0374015951.1374015956.447.577401595TT6.44444.44412322.9748627622921.2528725205650.719824002525861641141212WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2026104-18038.78633.78236.28466.2887661219550.0838583131.3138583136.447.753858313TT6.78643.78612323.3135284592221.4320548720970.732320956237971641141212WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026104-18038.5733.4436.00566.2339467236990.086614221.356614226.447.79661422TT6.5743.5712323.2752920277821.4117984692560.724460842697441641141212WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:02FORECAST2026104-18038.64234.26836.45570.7482686017860.0574803460.9674803466.447.407480346TT6.64238.64212326.4062578968223.0926776069880.72709343340267164113129WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:04FORECAST2026104-18038.24630.61434.4370.7854186891320.1200788050.7400788056.447.180078805TT6.24638.24612326.431875169423.1066169573440.71246212538961164113129WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2026104-18038.13831.78434.96170.6727784761560.1437008650.7437008656.447.183700865TT6.13839.13812326.3541953623.0643577534420.70840842085982164113129WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026104-18038.64231.40635.02470.8377026832840.2488190320.6988190326.447.138819032TT6.64238.64212326.4679241078123.1262377435780.72709343340267164113129WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026104-18038.60633.56636.08669.9954172699510.574803460.894803466.447.33480346TT6.60640.60612325.886599358322.810568504770.72577869637195164113129WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:06FORECAST2026104-18038.44432.73835.59169.905844950.6362208160.9562208166.447.396220816TT6.44439.44412325.8247055444922.7770513466720.71982400252586164113129WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026104-18038.44430.88434.66474.3512052254130.4677167881.1377167886.397.527716788TT6.44436.44412328.8794876616424.4525862815590.719824002525861641141212WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026104-18039.43432.19835.81673.7629262932990.2492127331.4492127336.397.839212733TT7.43438.43412328.4772090751524.2294401620390.7552041241971641141212WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2026104-18039.39832.1835.78973.7572888586320.2688977831.4688977836.397.858897783TT7.39838.39812328.4733511599424.2273038438660.753961022129161641141212WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2026104-18039.97432.936.43773.8553963941060.7696854551.4296854556.397.819685455TT7.97437.97412328.5404820679624.264487534640.773439256847831641141212WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2026104-18039.48833.27836.38373.8664127101540.8283469041.7083469046.398.098346904TT7.48835.48812328.5480190304524.2686635688070.757062429978221641151215WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:04FORECAST2026104-18039.07433.2636.16774.01680977010.8244098941.6144098946.398.004409894TT7.07437.07412328.6508941345224.3256907119290.742622562668471641151215WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026104-18039.00232.05435.52865.5197187244141.6905520942.4205520946.328.740552094TT7.00232.00212322.7766324200421.1482341669750.740066583611371641151215WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2026104-18039.00232.37835.6965.9321991866451.7751978092.5151978096.398.905197809TT7.00234.00212323.0647283297221.3003680184140.740066583611371641151215WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:11FORECAST2026104-18036.33832.2734.30465.8778619646631.7421269252.6321269256.49.032126925TT4.33831.33812323.0267938976721.2803145392780.63729404913271631151212.5WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:04FORECAST2026104-18035.70832.30634.00767.7841400880321.6389772632.7689772636.439.198977263TT3.70828.70812324.3544983068321.9860907514130.6110705378081631151212.5WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026104-18036.37432.07234.22368.2397699474641.6389772632.8589772636.649.498977263TT4.37429.37412324.6708893580122.1554667984290.638774580451291631151212.5WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026104-18036.03231.98234.00768.9434870399541.5523630432.7023630436.729.422363043TT4.03231.03212325.1588341698422.4175838695150.624628642705961631151212.5WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2026104-18035.6932.28833.98954.4482058556822.2370090823.1770090826.9710.147009082TT3.6925.6912314.9298969471817.1473678590890.610313158195251631151212.5WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026104-18035.09632.19833.64754.0165599362562.2370090823.1670090826.8810.047009082TT3.09629.09612314.6194838714716.9946622076570.585101067333441631151212.5WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2026104-18036.62633.13434.8854.3063685955742.263780753.023780756.9910.01378075TT4.62630.62612314.8279338929117.0971618221710.649079088039261631151212.5WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026104-18039.7434.55637.14860.8366393304630.2405513110.7205513117.067.780551311TT7.7434.7412319.4844927845919.4363628592120.76563289047175164113129WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026104-18040.17234.50237.33760.2509966408140.2405513110.7205513117.047.760551311TT8.17238.17212319.0700325029919.2242874565220.77992858852298164113129WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2026104-18039.95634.39437.17561.3628924367560.1870079750.4570079757.257.707007975TT7.95638.95612319.8563974147419.6273137097690.77284401794617164112126WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2026104-18037.7783234.88959.1601875678180.3562994050.9062994058.119.016299405TT5.77833.77812318.2964196344218.8304758877370.69470754812266163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.79632.30635.05156.7834958110530.3562994050.9062994057.688.586299405TT5.79633.79612316.6034045090617.9778480937050.69539932924707163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026104-18037.83232.28835.0657.7009878327820.358267910.938267917.888.81826791TT5.83233.83212317.2581832053918.3061105689850.69678079701469163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2026104-18036.15829.78632.97265.5346212747080.0496063260.6296063267.658.279606326TT4.15832.15812322.7870463240921.1537268332310.62986098131084163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026104-18037.38230.23633.80965.521493137280.0559055420.6559055427.718.365905542TT5.38231.38212322.7778724006521.1488881513650.67931600459873163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026104-18037.83229.51633.67465.3154576333160.066929170.636929177.568.19692917TT5.83231.83212322.6338550070421.0729778877850.69678079701469163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026104-18038.96630.88434.92562.078194671128007.477.47TT6.96628.96612320.3611072143119.8874391787080.73878370884832164111123WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:07FORECAST2026104-18037.79630.63234.21461.919054826552007.467.46TT5.79629.79612320.2488990972219.8295091413440.69539932924707163111122.5WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.4929.82233.65662.81478164273400.057.487.53TT5.4926.4912320.8798778636120.155999461550.6835458376594163111122.5WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:05FORECAST2026104-18038.67832.91835.79862.1877306358220.0496063260.0996063267.197.289606326TT6.67824.67812320.4383137190819.9273315389590.72840504075053164112126WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026104-18036.87831.13634.00763.0473007809060.0484252230.0984252237.377.468425223TT4.87824.87812321.0434372592220.2409221526180.65927515741838163112125WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2026104-18035.3328.00431.66765.8721074095400.067.667.72TT3.3314.3312323.0227761648521.2781910072590.59508122078494163111122.5WETL
2026-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026104-18036.35627.55431.95559.5444708616300.167.837.99TT4.35611.35612318.5692018256618.9690345555210.63803457287512163112125WETL
2026-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026104-18036.69828.7632.72957.78537013671200.167.757.91TT4.69824.69812317.3183270156418.3363569777610.65200360713626163112125WETL
2026-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026104-18037.02229.31833.1757.83224449353100.137.687.81TT5.02221.02212317.3517313240918.353162916380.66505026280883163112125WETL
2026-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2026104-18036.26631.53233.89964.1390143255540.3389765610.7389765618.048.778976561TT4.26621.26612321.810083901720.6405815814790.6343268431236163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026104-18036.26631.53233.89964.1493094220420.3389765610.7389765617.938.668976561TT4.26620.26612321.8173034330220.6443577752920.6343268431236163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2026104-18036.89631.29834.09764.2346808109140.4559057581.2359057587.839.065905758TT4.89620.89612321.8771636332920.6756768663070.65999912392761631141210WETL
2026-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.32831.56834.44865.23882315927300.228.218.43TT5.32815.32812322.5802688062321.044757111320.67719228624301163112125WETL
2026-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.50831.58634.54765.17277732130400.248.078.31TT5.5089.50812322.5340782771721.020441662090.6842485029505163112125WETL
2026-01-03 15:00:04FORECAST2026104-18037.83232.8135.32164.54565172463400.427.938.35TT5.83210.83212322.0950986392520.7898380589810.69678079701469163112125WETL
2026-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026104-18043.10629.89436.567.57324172681900.57.918.41TT11.10619.10612324.2079256952121.9077805327530.863037968021041651131210.5WETL
2026-01-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026104-18042.51232.23437.37366.01224833876400.58.098.59TT10.51229.51212323.1206034885221.3299175208550.8482216212185164113129WETL
2026-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026104-18038.49827.60833.05366.17171908629900.368.048.4TT6.49820.49812323.2318819104721.3888092895150.72181583821469164112126WETL
2026-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026104-18035.56430.30832.93667.8489859263270.1870079750.2970079757.37.597007975TT3.56418.56412324.3995498464622.0101804920390.60499992107623163112125WETL
2026-01-02 19:00:04FORECAST2026104-18034.53831.1932.86466.6768529733550.1870079750.2970079757.027.317007975TT2.53821.53812323.5840661312421.5755672019530.56109122424228163112125WETL
2026-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2026104-18034.39430.232.29765.2219457344720.4578742630.5278742636.787.307874263TT2.39421.39412322.5684659655721.0385429828590.55485474228783163113127.5WETL
2026-01-02 11:00:05FORECAST2026104-1803231.131.5565.4915313628240.3696852390.4396852396.817.249685239TT01712322.756934010221.1378458662980.45036649950419162112124WETL
2026-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST2026104-1803231.131.5563.8597423421240.3696852390.4396852396.867.299685239TT02012321.6141698106820.5381980176860.45036649950419162112124WETL
2026-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026104-18028.20227.33827.7763.4511913853010.0263779670.0663779677.167.226377967TT-3.79815.20212321.327313824120.3886008867780.29409381323911162111122WETL