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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 11, 2026

[ Saturday, January 10, 2026 | Index | Today | Monday, January 12, 2026 ]

DAY 103 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/12/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.15°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.69°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.42°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.696
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.78 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.83 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.40 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 11
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 20.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -181

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-12 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026103-18136.1500828.6899832.4200364.138651250.780.836.577.4TT4.1500840.1500811320.7586907411 20.573029800850.6959835145723216 3113127.5WETL
2026-01-12 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026103-18136.1500828.6899832.4200364.138651250.780.836.577.4TT4.1500840.1500811320.7586907411 20.573029800850.6959835145723216 3113127.5WETL
2026-01-11 11:00:01FORECAST2026103-18134.66427.06830.86666.2891904448491.1039376041.1539376046.577.723937604TT2.66438.66411322.2684119098821.3629121314530.636028381804551631141210WETL
2026-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2026103-18133.827.93230.86666.7996589219551.2330715321.2830715326.577.853071532TT1.837.811322.625561463621.5512774652730.599449750727861631141210WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:03FORECAST2026103-18134.23227.62630.92966.7217155236991.2708668281.3208668286.577.890866828TT2.23238.23211322.5710582726321.5224943862450.61787054746061631141210WETL
2026-01-10 23:00:01FORECAST2026103-18134.46628.43631.45171.2981278017860.8921264660.9621264666.577.532126466TT2.46633.46611325.7529766198823.2255773588570.62774110846399163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 19:00:02FORECAST2026103-18134.30427.6830.99271.2286122891320.6003940250.6703940256.577.240394025TT2.30433.30411325.7049195400923.1995094345840.62091614583471163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 15:00:02FORECAST2026103-18134.82629.53432.1871.0547007386820.5763782640.6463782646.577.216378264TT2.82633.82611325.5846547935423.1343202114620.64276209362959163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:03FORECAST2026103-18133.99828.83231.41571.3477098832840.43307110.50307116.577.0730711TT1.99832.99811325.7872482461523.244174071540.6079228019719163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026103-18134.55628.61631.58670.5794212699510.2988190590.3688190596.576.938819059TT2.55634.55611325.2557145163222.9563600953060.63151565000493163112125WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:06FORECAST2026103-18133.8928.5831.23570.476368150.3232285210.3732285216.576.943228521TT1.8933.8911325.184339190922.9178112054320.60330720056744163112125WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2026103-18134.12429.28231.70374.8310036254130.5212601240.6712601246.577.241260124TT2.12431.12411328.1841647310324.5583504207910.61328850200469163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026103-18135.20428.70631.95574.3722190932990.8440949441.2040949446.577.774094944TT3.20432.20411327.8696782377124.3843955439450.658299197032891631141210WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2026103-18135.38429.10232.24374.3354872586320.862205191.202205196.577.77220519TT3.38432.38411327.8444835412124.370479429090.665606578264981631141210WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2026103-18135.47428.50831.99174.5201867941060.547244390.657244396.577.22724439TT3.47431.47411327.9711468139324.4404711236510.6692371002178163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2026103-18134.28629.94832.11774.4398879101540.6948822650.8848822656.577.454882265TT2.28629.28611327.9160867355524.410036740530.62015544108945163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2026103-18133.56629.98431.77574.58733297010.6381893210.7881893216.577.358189321TT1.56630.56611328.0171796016624.4659265948620.58937579023462163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026103-18133.7130.16431.93765.9956795244140.6779531220.7279531226.57.227953122TT1.7125.7111322.0628470552321.2547564409770.59558257940282163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2026103-18133.6230.07431.84766.4188855866450.6909452550.8109452556.57.310945255TT1.6227.6211322.3591970734521.4107386282240.59170604901331163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:08FORECAST2026103-18134.10630.14632.12666.2733315646630.7740161660.9740161666.57.474016166TT2.10628.10611322.257308817121.3570654763720.61252327119342163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2026103-18132.88229.01230.94768.0725504880321.1216541491.2416541496.57.741654149TT0.88225.88211323.5141263186222.0224316974160.559612894931921631141210WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026103-18133.96229.08431.52368.5564211474641.2082683691.3582683696.688.038268369TT1.96225.96211323.8511480460822.2020756945370.606385919251241631141210WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026103-18133.78229.2131.49669.2438038399541.1358273851.2558273856.798.045827385TT1.78227.78211324.329206742722.4577879712590.598677082624881631141210WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2026103-18133.3529.1231.23554.7420282556820.940945391.080945397.018.09094539TT1.3523.3511314.0644729645417.1925262531310.58002396854251631141210WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026103-18133.56628.72431.14554.2922767362560.9303154631.0103154636.987.990315463TT1.56626.56611313.7400428231217.0336612281980.589375790234621631141210WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2026103-18134.2530.27232.26154.7339165955740.7618114350.8318114357.17.931811435TT2.2527.2511314.058624865917.1896585795310.61863263914431163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026103-18135.34829.71432.53161.4457353304630.4811026220.6211026227.17.721102622TT3.34828.34811318.8565444719319.5923748400080.66415000018741163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:05FORECAST2026103-18135.11430.14632.6360.9068326408140.4811026220.6111026227.097.701102622TT3.11431.11411318.474324675419.3972623934010.65462293908235163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2026103-18135.61829.10232.3662.0350628367560.2744095970.4144095977.297.704409597TT3.61831.61811319.2739298824219.8061783023940.67501286871408163112125WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026103-18135.04230.0232.53159.5691379678180.492126250.632126258.218.84212625TT3.04229.04211317.5232928658618.9145888407230.65167137928778163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:04FORECAST2026103-18135.09630.95633.02657.2388910110530.492126250.632126257.788.41212625TT3.09629.09611315.8588707112118.0794114755130.65388592116651163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026103-18135.1529.87632.51358.1709462327820.5086616920.6486616927.998.638661692TT3.1529.1511316.5257908441318.4126047604830.65609521597828163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026103-18133.60229.55231.57765.7727492747080.5062994860.6562994867.758.406299486TT1.60228.60211321.9066120146421.172682881910.59092965193663163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18132.3629.2130.78565.879570737280.5208664230.6508664237.848.490866423TT0.3627.3611321.9814861806221.212002094930.53666080637178163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026103-18132.39629.46230.92965.6519856333160.4925199510.6525199517.668.312519951TT0.39627.39611321.8219409143221.1282494413930.53824852547412163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026103-18133.33229.7531.54162.54352827112800.087.577.65TT1.33223.33211319.6335437948119.9910095827310.57924252945598163111122.5WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:06FORECAST2026103-18133.40430.231.80262.18316042655200.17.547.64TT1.40425.40411319.3787203493519.8599782043110.58236638193682163112125WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:04FORECAST2026103-18133.36829.82231.59563.0446440427340.0480315220.1580315227.557.708031522TT1.36822.36811319.9875055029420.1734983825550.58080509231125163112125WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:04FORECAST2026103-18134.3431.38832.86462.6153770358220.0527559340.2927559347.137.422755934TT2.3419.3411319.6843216381720.0171543318150.62243614912086163112125WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18133.02631.4632.24363.3349239809060.0519685320.2919685327.317.601968532TT1.02621.02611320.1923379322220.2793573822060.56591273690001163112125WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2026103-18131.35228.18429.76866.023938609540.055118140.415118147.487.89511814TT-0.64812.35211322.0826454048721.2651648074090.49205998023447162112124WETL
2026-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026103-18130.66827.37429.02159.751110861630.1641733170.3741733177.88.174173317TT-1.3327.66811317.6528561610718.9801110239940.46181761749789162112124WETL
2026-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026103-18134.7929.08431.93758.0100173367120.1641733170.3741733177.728.094173317TT2.7920.7911316.4107529825418.3549932660390.64126946225392163112125WETL
2026-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2026103-18134.64629.96632.30658.0755876935310.1251969180.3351969187.657.985196918TT2.64616.64611316.4576307486518.378462885830.63527754851592163112125WETL
2026-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2026103-18134.66431.40633.03564.3726159255540.299212760.739212767.888.61921276TT2.66417.66411320.923338655920.6586748208420.63602838180455163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18134.95230.18232.56764.3829110220420.299212760.739212767.778.50921276TT2.95216.95211320.9305813748920.6624450649120.64796899884559163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2026103-18135.47430.5633.01764.5252560109140.4078742361.1178742367.678.787874236TT3.47417.47411321.0307033043320.7145883180750.66923710021781631141210WETL
2026-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2026103-18135.6931.20833.44965.5427807592730.0814961070.2614961078.358.611496107TT3.6910.6911321.7453516556821.0880850438830.67788517751732163112125WETL
2026-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026103-18135.76231.3733.56665.4887397213040.1031496620.2831496628.218.493149662TT3.7624.76211321.7074428970321.068214994290.68074690897165163112125WETL
2026-01-03 15:00:04FORECAST2026103-18136.28431.74834.01664.9360045246340.1086614760.4786614768.058.528661476TT4.2846.28411321.3194107500920.8651987103210.70116523117916164112126WETL
2026-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026103-18136.84230.18233.51268.0013801268190.0807087050.7207087057.878.590708705TT4.8428.84211323.4645203550321.9960338062020.72231106237014164113129WETL
2026-01-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18139.03833.09836.06866.6734963387640.0807087050.7207087058.058.770708705TT7.03820.03811322.5373348191121.5046918121770.79775277557428164113129WETL
2026-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026103-18136.10430.27233.18866.40207348629900.568.028.58TT4.10415.10411322.3474304763621.4045377666110.69419134992721163113127.5WETL
2026-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026103-18138.6633.56636.11367.92701712632700.147.457.59TT6.6615.6611323.4126795311921.9684586213860.78571264274248164112126WETL
2026-01-02 19:00:04FORECAST2026103-18139.43433.11636.27566.73057937335500.147.177.31TT7.43420.43411322.5772570076821.525767252790.80992290072551164112126WETL
2026-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2026103-18139.63233.09836.36565.2714409344720.0688976750.0688976756.967.028897675TT7.63219.63211321.5549593988320.9883555395880.81583583842549164111123WETL
2026-01-02 11:00:05FORECAST2026103-18138.06627.6832.87365.49153136282400.076.997.06TT6.06618.06611321.7094013078421.0692413454680.76597535775902164111123WETL
2026-01-02 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18138.15627.60832.88263.85974234212400.077.047.11TT6.15621.15611320.5622863431420.4710250104750.76902895633784164111123WETL
2026-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026103-18137.83225.68231.75763.34853148757200.047.347.38TT5.83219.83211320.2019361948620.2843224374220.75793250802269164111123WETL
2026-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026103-18130.84823.84627.34774.6571102468710.3602364150.5502364158.438.980236415TT-1.1524.84811328.065007851324.4923854592950.469761916403162113126WETL
2026-01-01 19:00:03FORECAST2026103-18130.84823.84627.34775.2955605647410.3602364150.5502364158.549.090236415TT-1.1525.84811328.5022348785924.7347599219540.469761916403162113126WETL
2026-01-01 15:00:03FORECAST2026103-18129.7523.37826.56474.2585304003340.2185040550.3285040558.448.768504055TT-2.257.7511327.791690516424.3413292151890.42160438190877162112124WETL
2026-01-01 11:00:04FORECAST2026103-18123.41422.20822.81162.500333119492007.087.08TT-8.586-0.58611319.6030119250319.9752947113070.18367662711445161111121.5WETL
2026-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST2026103-18123.41422.20822.81162.264764363051007.057.05TT-8.5860.41411319.4364445861419.8896349511270.18367662711445161111121.5WETL
2026-01-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026103-18125.46624.83625.15164.629862738533007.397.39TT-6.5343.46611321.1042580055220.7529241196550.25031065468439162111122WETL