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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 10, 2026

[ Friday, January 9, 2026 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 11, 2026 ]

DAY 102 OF WATER YEAR 2026, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/11/2026 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.08°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.753
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 66 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.29 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.33 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -182

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2026-01-11 07:00:04OBSERVATION2026102-18239.0799432.3000635.6966.38930291666700.496.687.17TT7.0799440.0799410321.28936635831 21.3301770670660.7527722510510916 4112126WETL
2026-01-11 03:00:03OBSERVATION2026102-18239.0799432.3000635.6966.38930291666700.496.687.17TT7.0799440.0799410321.28936635831 21.3301770670660.7527722510510916 4112126WETL
2026-01-10 11:00:01FORECAST2026102-18234.2526.88830.56971.0193229320930.0169291430.5069291436.687.186929143TT2.2535.2510324.5233234492223.0474267070360.55803422924007163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 07:00:04FORECAST2026102-18235.36626.20430.78570.5998171887440.0165354420.5065354426.687.186535442TT3.36636.36610324.2318731619422.8907109719970.60646532701474163113127.5WETL
2026-01-10 03:00:05FORECAST2026102-18234.80826.22230.51570.5471177500.496.687.17TT2.80835.80810324.1952384321122.8710396596590.58240604539232163112125WETL
2026-01-09 23:00:01FORECAST2026102-18234.57426.54630.5674.4719589517040.1484252770.5884252776.687.268425277TT2.57432.57410326.9102719529724.3456483537720.57221849738466163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2026102-18234.95227.0531.00173.92757760.3610238170.8010238176.687.481023817TT2.95232.95210326.5353075193824.1399642857790.58864838417687163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 15:00:01FORECAST2026102-18235.31229.98432.64873.91704880.3421261690.7821261696.687.462126169TT3.31233.31210326.5280502751224.1359898267550.60415311840138163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2026102-18234.26830.18232.22574.1922913370510.1118110840.5518110846.687.231811084TT2.26832.26810326.7177044562324.2399351139890.55882437344602163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 07:00:04FORECAST2026102-18233.45829.01231.23574.5255943101540.1901575830.6301575836.687.310157583TT1.45831.45810326.947187401624.3659334491370.52308359751644163113127.5WETL
2026-01-09 03:00:03FORECAST2026102-18233.67429.17431.42474.5234450557780.1480315760.5880315766.687.268031576TT1.67432.67410326.945708237424.3651205240530.53264468924235163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2026102-18232.79228.50830.6565.99193120.0515748310.4215748316.687.101574831TT0.79227.79210321.0100356188521.1840721850690.49354391338689162112124WETL
2026-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2026102-18235.11428.47231.79366.2321109028510.0503937280.4903937286.687.170393728TT3.11430.11410321.1789026118121.2723566974420.59564421487458163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 15:00:05FORECAST2026102-18234.53828.5831.55966.3329619646630.1192914030.5692914036.687.249291403TT2.53829.53810321.2497788794421.3094493635660.57064672158197163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2026102-18234.08828.0431.06468.0874088880320.0141732360.4941732366.687.174173236TT2.08829.08810322.4798710652521.9568188393790.55091291085135163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 07:00:05FORECAST2026102-18234.75428.88631.8268.5978475474640.0141732360.7041732366.687.384173236TT2.75427.75410322.8367257883922.1459044983540.58005971499641163113127.5WETL
2026-01-08 03:00:06FORECAST2026102-18234.86229.10231.98269.2791294399540.0141732360.7841732366.687.464173236TT2.86229.86210323.3122990855322.3987946178750.58474944605486163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2026102-18235.16827.87831.52354.76239705568200.756.957.7TT3.16826.16810312.9985863261517.140552862260.59796949845974163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2026102-18235.628.29231.94654.34492073625600.666.957.61TT3.628.610312.6963195264616.9934566991840.61644060979029163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.2328.27432.25254.85849099557400.776.957.72TT4.2329.2310313.0681161807117.1744444325010.64289967968942163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2026102-18235.90628.59832.25261.60199453046300.846.957.79TT3.90628.90610317.9053135833519.5836013885670.62936874281373163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 07:00:04FORECAST2026102-18236.2328.6732.4561.07489984081400.946.837.77TT4.2332.2310317.530199905119.3931251556380.64289967968942163113127.5WETL
2026-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2026102-18236.19428.92232.55862.21041163675600.887.17.98TT4.19432.19410318.3376774486819.8039179535720.64140472150786163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2026102-18236.57229.3932.98159.6687187678180.0649606651.1049606657.88.904960665TT4.57229.57210316.5270126355418.8867612993680.656989684048251631141210WETL
2026-01-06 19:00:04FORECAST2026102-18236.39228.99432.69357.3493942110530.0649606650.8649606657.618.474960665TT4.39230.39210314.8645285172818.0572899690150.64959959789845163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 15:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.7729.3933.0858.2753486327820.0653543660.9453543667.738.675354366TT4.7729.7710315.529424302218.3875872051110.66504992016575163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 11:00:02FORECAST2026102-18236.84229.26433.05365.7422585838050.0688976750.8588976757.598.448897675TT4.84230.84210320.8343850505321.0923771045680.66796242059098163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 07:00:05FORECAST2026102-18237.429.85833.62965.8119405041210.082677210.892677217.638.52267721TT5.431.410320.883419129921.1179604885360.6901804117068163113127.5WETL
2026-01-06 03:00:05FORECAST2026102-18236.9529.62433.28765.5760067812670.0822835090.8222835097.558.372283509TT4.9530.9510320.717361192821.0313638524490.67231217634585163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2026102-18237.59829.35433.47662.58288827112800.867.348.2TT5.59825.59810318.6020436715819.9390361020520.69790561970328163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 19:00:06FORECAST2026102-18237.14829.10233.12562.20874442655200.97.298.19TT5.14828.14810318.3364935797219.8033135707460.68022600587524163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 15:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.12228.27432.19863.06766964273400.877.348.21TT4.12225.12210318.9457440750720.1151648212820.63840831950393163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 11:00:04FORECAST2026102-18236.06828.25632.16262.72647063582200.97.027.92TT4.06821.06810318.7038848427619.9911698741110.63615542545235163113127.5WETL
2026-01-05 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18236.89629.24633.07163.37753118090601.077.038.1TT4.89623.89610319.1652081741620.2279029329180.670140172383391631141210WETL
2026-01-05 03:00:07FORECAST2026102-18235.2427.4131.32566.0239386095401.277.128.39TT3.2417.2410321.0325455312721.1958330778210.601064478273861631141210WETL
2026-01-04 23:00:02FORECAST2026102-18235.16828.23831.70359.7511108616300.927.648.56TT3.16813.16810316.5858910647218.9163586742360.59796949845974163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 19:00:02FORECAST2026102-18237.16628.70632.93658.10310373671200.867.628.48TT5.16622.16610315.4058595724818.3260593779060.68094146601137163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 15:00:02FORECAST2026102-18237.2228.47232.84658.19032209353100.837.588.41TT5.2218.2210315.4684348747618.3572098357040.6830838001162163113127.5WETL
2026-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.26628.72432.49564.5069319255540.102362261.542362267.338.87236226TT4.26619.26610319.9636627070420.6398742088940.644392448275391631151212.5WETL
2026-01-04 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18237.20229.58833.39564.5170302220420.102362261.542362267.228.76236226TT5.20218.20210319.970791591820.6435652312990.682370365352051631151212.5WETL
2026-01-04 03:00:04FORECAST2026102-18235.81627.80631.81164.6755128109140.3688978371.8188978377.118.928897837TT3.81617.81610320.0826483053620.7015094210250.625580745559241631151212.5WETL
2026-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2026102-18236.71622.71229.71465.7532583592730.1370079480.9370079488.149.077007948TT4.71610.71610320.8421259976621.0964152032630.66285900440667163113127.5WETL
2026-01-03 19:00:04FORECAST2026102-18233.83620.19227.01465.6980365213050.1429134630.9329134638.018.942913463TT1.8364.83610320.8032621737721.0761444344460.53980347116705163113127.5WETL
2026-01-03 15:00:04FORECAST2026102-18234.30420.4827.39265.2038493246340.3094489861.1894489867.788.969448986TT2.3046.30410320.4552221267820.8949140188460.56040395658851631141210WETL
2026-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST2026102-18233.5323.39628.46368.1969009268190.4224411731.3724411737.699.062441173TT1.537.5310322.556457446121.9973507717570.526272378375731631141210WETL
2026-01-03 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18236.66226.4231.54167.1904899387640.4224411731.3724411737.879.242441173TT4.66216.66210321.8517007833621.6253734632580.660662554461311631141210WETL
2026-01-03 03:00:05FORECAST2026102-18234.41227.06830.7466.5683694862990.3637797241.2337797247.99.133779724TT2.41215.41210321.4151483134121.3960823514210.565136841367151631141210WETL
2026-01-02 23:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.84226.36631.60468.4373195263270.1125984860.4825984867.668.142598486TT4.84212.84210322.7245482979922.0864030308590.66796242059098163112125WETL
2026-01-02 19:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.96828.5832.77467.2671545733550.1125984860.4825984867.387.862598486TT4.96816.96810321.905449930621.6536636584870.67303488949342163112125WETL
2026-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2026102-18236.91428.79632.85565.81126333447200.267.257.51TT4.91415.91410320.8829426579521.1177118388030.67086481546713163112125WETL
2026-01-02 11:00:05FORECAST2026102-18234.46628.59831.53265.7229681628240.0732283860.2832283867.337.613228386TT2.46616.46610320.8208091485721.0852958256430.56749983236696163112125WETL
2026-01-02 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18234.44828.50831.47864.0937375421240.074803190.294803197.377.66480319TT2.44819.44810319.671811579820.4889611910110.56671243255539163112125WETL
2026-01-02 03:00:05FORECAST2026102-18233.90827.42830.66863.5450362875720.0350393890.2050393897.727.925039389TT1.90817.90810319.2837742822620.2888990227990.54298115457426163112125WETL
2026-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST2026102-18234.2526.94230.59672.5386842508880.1885827790.4285827798.749.168582779TT2.2510.2510325.576299518923.6168763903740.55803422924007163112125WETL
2026-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST2026102-18234.2526.94230.59673.1771345687580.1885827790.4285827798.859.278582779TT2.2511.2510326.0175591237923.857030795780.55803422924007163112125WETL
2026-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST2026102-18234.23226.72630.47972.4170760324160.1098425790.2398425798.869.099842579TT2.23214.23210325.4921698542123.5711912122890.55724385407409163112125WETL
2026-01-01 11:00:03FORECAST2026102-18232.25223.928.07662.50033311949200.037.67.63TT0.25212.25210318.5434715185519.9090730829490.46961129909588162111122WETL
2026-01-01 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18232.25223.928.07662.26476436305100.037.577.6TT0.25213.25210318.3762700196319.8236234315590.46961129909588162111122WETL
2026-01-01 03:00:06FORECAST2026102-18231.51424.33227.92364.62986273853300.217.737.94TT-0.48613.51410320.0504331868920.6848155662760.43709701193253162112124WETL
2025-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST2026102-18227.39219.05823.22564.32226048086900.748.098.83TT-4.6082.39210319.833261787620.5723983751480.26867258302471162113126WETL
2025-12-31 19:00:04FORECAST2026102-18225.719.05822.37965.0794854786800.747.428.16TT-6.30.710320.3675678701820.8493564810480.21038880057214161113124.5WETL
2025-12-31 15:00:02FORECAST2026102-18224.36821.9223.14472.24403730140300.687.267.94TT-7.632-0.6320000000000110325.3724152916523.5062169071780.17021900432755161113124.5WETL
2025-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST2026102-18223.7221.9222.8259.06113794091601.025.316.33TT-8.2811.7210316.0924470448418.6687796169970.15258055908455161114126WETL
2025-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST2026102-18214.61212.75813.68559.4014177350801.025.086.1TF-17.388-13.38810316.3359110923218.7908015994020.020597926428814161114126WETL
2025-12-31 03:00:06FORECAST2026102-18223.25222.2822.76658.81269176053600.744.835.57TF-8.7483.25210315.9145553354318.5797853656090.14062183247289161113124.5WETL