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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 9, 2025

[ Monday, September 8, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 10, 2025 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.424
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 712

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 251
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-10 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253445958.4700848.5099653.49002000.010.910.92FF26.47008712.47008251466.86824583767 00.4235805414073616 23515225DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253445955.25643.84449.5500.1275591240.1375591240.911.047559124FF23.256709.256251466.8682458376700.298002776556251623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 12:00:01FORECAST20253445954.9542.24248.59600.0976378480.1076378480.911.017637848FF22.95708.95251466.8682458376700.286963004268021623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253445955.68842.0848.88400.1173228980.1273228980.911.037322898FF23.688709.688251466.8682458376700.313908855648241623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253445956.22842.9849.60400.1228347120.1328347120.911.042834712FF24.228710.228251466.8682458376700.334285164177711623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 00:00:01FORECAST20253445956.4843.0749.77500.2106300350.2306300350.911.140630035FF24.48704.48251466.8682458376700.34396857184861623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253445957.09244.61850.85500.2039371180.2339371180.911.143937118FF25.092706.092251466.8682458376700.367904244084191623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20253445955.52645.62650.57600.1877953770.2177953770.911.127795377FF23.526704.526251466.8682458376700.307901335014021623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253445955.27446.09450.68400.4051183290.4351183290.911.345118329FF23.274704.274251466.8682458376700.298658154658721623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253445955.1346.11250.62100.3771655580.4171655580.911.327165558FF23.13705.13251466.8682458376700.293433580346441623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253445953.61845.17649.39700.3039371720.3939371720.911.303937172FF21.618702.618251466.8682458376700.241299689112941613525245DRYM
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253445952.48444.7848.63200.5417325760.6917325760.911.601732576FF20.484703.484251466.8682458376700.20576463044781613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253445951.8943.86247.87600.5468506890.6968506890.911.606850689FF19.89702.89251466.8682458376700.18845927030391613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253445952.23244.04248.13701.0437013511.2737013510.912.183701351FF20.232703.232251466.8682458376700.198310888627261613545290DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253445951.54844.4247.98400.6074806430.8074806430.911.717480643FF19.548702.548251466.8682458376700.178914703813221613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253445951.15244.07847.61500.6019688290.8619688290.911.771968829FF19.152704.152251466.8682458376700.16824969647011613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253445951.1744.92448.04700.5023624760.8623624760.911.772362476FF19.17704.17251466.8682458376700.168725436074181613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253445950.28844.61847.45300.3704726410.6404726410.391.030472641FF18.288696.288251466.8682458376700.146428495497221613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253445950.64843.71847.18300.4653545820.7853545820.31.085354582FF18.648696.648251466.8682458376700.155279121634831613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253445950.48644.4247.45300.5047246820.7947246820.31.094724682FF18.486695.486251466.8682458376700.151253665034721613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253445950.77444.2447.50700.5011813730.9711813730.31.271181373FF18.774694.774251466.8682458376700.158458348520591613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253445950.75644.00647.38100.527559340.977559340.21.17755934FF18.756695.756251466.8682458376700.158001584349331613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253445949.08243.48446.28300.6893704511.2993704510.241.539370451FF17.082693.082251466.8682458376700.119275643045421613545290DRYVH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253445948.21842.42245.3200.6153546631.0753546630.381.455354663FF16.218685.218251466.8682458376700.102140255918041613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253445948.72242.45845.5900.6283467961.1083467960.31.408346796FF16.722688.722251466.8682458376700.111904969697821613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253445948.61443.30445.95900.8405516351.4605516350.321.780551635FF16.614690.614251466.8682458376700.109758454111371613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253445950.21642.24246.22900.4019687210.9719687210.241.211968721FF18.216691.216251466.8682458376700.144699723016311613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253445949.08241.28845.18500.4019687210.9719687210.231.201968721FF17.082688.082251466.8682458376700.119275643045421613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253445947.78641.7244.75300.3566931060.8466931060.221.066693106FF15.786684.786251466.8682458376700.0942750836633741613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253445948.1142.04445.07700.2496064340.9696064340.311.279606434FF16.11681.11251466.8682458376700.10013074239291613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253445949.53242.58446.05800.2496064340.9796064340.281.259606434FF17.532684.532251466.8682458376700.12896063253451613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253445950.4543.41246.93100.3255907271.2755907270.251.525590727FF18.45689.45251466.8682458376700.150368605766541613545290DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253445952.21443.28647.7500.1409449580.5609449580.30.860944958FF20.214692.214251466.8682458376700.197784775128681613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253445951.67443.26847.47100.1464567720.6064567720.340.946456772FF19.674691.674251466.8682458376700.18239523467531613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253445951.40443.39447.39900.1511811840.6311811840.320.951181184FF19.404691.404251466.8682458376700.174988387245341613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253445948.48842.0845.28400.6114176531.6214176530.321.941417653FF16.488680.488251466.8682458376700.1072916161393416135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253445948.34442.38645.36500.6114176531.6314176530.331.961417653FF16.344680.344251466.8682458376700.104521457618416135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253445948.18242.40445.29300.6287404971.6187404970.31.918740497FF16.182681.182251466.8682458376700.1014671943410116135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253445947.58842.99845.29300.7507878070.9107878070.261.170787807FF15.588685.588251466.8682458376700.0908228186930231613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253445947.96643.01645.49100.7507878070.9107878070.261.170787807FF15.966685.966251466.8682458376700.0974963557899071613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253445948.86642.99845.93200.7531500130.9331500130.261.193150013FF16.866684.866251466.8682458376700.114813301450031613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253445950.79244.00647.39900.0751968910.1751968910.330.505196891FF18.792684.792251466.8682458376700.158915975685371613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253445951.5342.69247.11100.0740157880.1540157880.320.474015788FF19.53678.53251466.8682458376700.178420911459241613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253445951.81842.4447.12900.1724410380.3224410380.20.522441038FF19.818678.818251466.8682458376700.186424280654541613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253445953.16844.00648.58700.3838584750.4338584750.210.643858475FF21.168684.168251466.8682458376700.226814516512031613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253445953.27643.57448.42500.3838584750.4338584750.210.643858475FF21.276686.276251466.8682458376700.230245615689331613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253445953.70844.25848.98300.2944883480.3444883480.140.484488348FF21.708689.708251466.8682458376700.244255787285431613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253445948.52441.77445.14900.8287406051.1587406050.261.418740605FF16.524684.524251466.8682458376700.107992325526391613545290DRYVH
2025-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20253445948.63241.88245.25700.8185043791.1585043790.261.418504379FF16.632688.632251466.8682458376700.110114145875521613545290DRYVH
2025-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20253445949.51441.82845.67100.5362207620.8862207620.251.136220762FF17.514684.514251466.8682458376700.128563086740031613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253445953.20444.00648.60500.2625985670.4625985670.120.582598567FF21.204688.204251466.8682458376700.227955005302261613525245DRYM
2025-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253445952.08843.1647.62400.2625985670.4625985670.130.592598567FF20.088685.088251466.8682458376700.194125598335521613525245DRYM
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253445951.27842.31446.79600.2657481750.5157481750.160.675748175FF19.278683.278251466.8682458376700.171597959488651613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253445961.14244.9653.0510000.170.17FF29.142678.142251466.8682458376700.534961420601351633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253445961.14244.9653.0510000.170.17FF29.142683.142251466.8682458376700.534961420601351633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253445962.25845.37453.8160000.170.17FF30.258686.258251466.8682458376700.581175633725581633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253445958.22642.20650.21600.0988189510.1088189510.180.288818951FF26.226679.226251466.8682458376700.41357247774681623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253445958.22642.20650.21600.0988189510.1088189510.180.288818951FF26.226678.226251466.8682458376700.41357247774681623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253445957.21841.61249.41500.0066929170.0666929170.160.226692917FF25.218682.218251466.8682458376700.372900153593651623515225DRYL
2025-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253445948.30843.53845.92300.2421261150.2721261150.170.442126115FF16.308681.308251466.8682458376700.103837060494231613525245DRYM
2025-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253445948.30843.53845.92300.2421261150.2721261150.170.442126115FF16.308680.308251466.8682458376700.103837060494231613525245DRYM
2025-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253445948.45243.8846.16600.007874020.017874020.130.14787402FF16.452685.452251466.8682458376700.106594180038181613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253445951.33249.29850.315000.030.060.09FF19.332692.332251466.8682458376700.173045840553231613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253445951.33249.29850.315000.030.060.09FF19.332692.332251466.8682458376700.173045840553231613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253445942.92642.29642.6110000.060.06FF10.926673.926251466.8682458376700.033874831104071613515222.5DRYL