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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 7, 2025

[ Saturday, September 6, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, September 8, 2025 ]

DAY 342 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/08/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.319
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 738

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 249
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-08 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253425753.7699248.0099250.8899200.00999999999999090.859999999999990.060.91999999999999FF21.76992737.76992249465.86861070411 00.3187299734640816 23535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 00:00:01FORECAST20253425754.91446.3150.61200.0622047580.9122047580.060.972204758FF22.914738.914249465.8686107041100.355223991682921623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253425755.95847.1251.53900.0598425520.9098425520.060.969842552FF23.958739.958249465.8686107041100.389736808001651623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253425757.93846.9452.43900.0858268180.9358268180.060.995826818FF25.938741.938249465.8686107041100.457415364844891623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 04:00:02FORECAST20253425758.2847.80453.04200.0665354690.9165354690.060.976535469FF26.28742.28249465.8686107041100.469289639414571623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 00:00:01FORECAST20253425758.20847.58852.89800.1358268450.4658268450.060.525826845FF26.208736.208249465.8686107041100.46678716294281623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253425757.99248.48853.2400.153543390.393543390.060.45354339FF25.992735.992249465.8686107041100.45928799973941623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253425757.27248.3852.82600.1787402540.4187402540.060.478740254FF25.272735.272249465.8686107041100.434409968120091623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20253425757.07447.91252.49300.2149607460.4549607460.060.514960746FF25.074735.074249465.8686107041100.427609555647391623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253425756.62447.78652.20500.1500000810.2900000810.060.350000081FF24.624735.624249465.8686107041100.412236876978541623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253425755.77847.64251.7100.2417324140.4217324140.060.481732414FF23.778734.778249465.8686107041100.383715217478631623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253425754.73447.3951.06200.1346457420.4546457420.060.514645742FF22.734728.734249465.8686107041100.349382808130461623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253425754.87847.22851.05300.1196851040.3596851040.060.419685104FF22.878731.878249465.8686107041100.354052979118431623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253425755.4947.91251.70100.2551182480.5151182480.060.575118248FF23.49733.49249465.8686107041100.374139352571321623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253425755.54448.63252.08800.3153545010.4953545010.060.555354501FF23.544732.544249465.8686107041100.375929124792991623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253425755.09447.85851.47600.3141733980.4841733980.060.544173398FF23.094732.094249465.8686107041100.361099374550511623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253425754.44647.40850.92700.3397639630.4997639630.060.559763963FF22.446731.446249465.8686107041100.340111124820511623535275DRYVH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253425755.00447.76851.38600.4393703160.6893703160.060.749370316FF23.004728.004249465.8686107041100.358157486414821623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253425755.56248.32651.94400.4503939440.6703939440.060.730393944FF23.562728.562249465.8686107041100.37652631107531623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253425756.19248.81252.50200.4224411730.6124411730.060.672441173FF24.192732.192249465.8686107041100.397604400920671623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253425757.61448.8353.22200.1740158420.4140158420.060.474015842FF25.614732.614249465.8686107041100.446200838861351623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253425758.149.13653.61800.204724520.484724520.060.54472452FF26.1734.1249465.8686107041100.463035939329381623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253425757.8349.0153.4200.2236221680.4836221680.060.543622168FF25.83732.83249465.8686107041100.453672971119281623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253425756.24647.31851.78200.1547244930.4147244930.060.474724493FF24.246726.246249465.8686107041100.399426056511461623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253425756.2147.87652.04300.1570866990.4270866990.060.487086699FF24.21726.21249465.8686107041100.398211373579671623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253425756.87647.60652.24100.1507874830.3907874830.060.450787483FF24.876726.876249465.8686107041100.420830579479641623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253425758.71248.75853.73500.0523622330.2523622330.060.312362233FF26.712729.712249465.8686107041100.484326531323771623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253425757.90249.22653.56400.0523622330.2523622330.060.312362233FF25.902729.902249465.8686107041100.456167464014591623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20253425757.88448.59653.2400.0480315220.2480315220.060.308031522FF25.884727.884249465.8686107041100.455543674908291623525250DRYMH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253425757.81247.46252.63700.0153543390.2853543390.060.345354339FF25.812724.812249465.8686107041100.453049629443251623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253425756.78646.34651.56600.0129921330.2729921330.060.332992133FF24.786718.786249465.8686107041100.417756842605271623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253425756.67847.2151.94400.0401575020.1701575020.070.240157502FF24.678719.678249465.8686107041100.414074994695751623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253425758.24448.14653.19500.0303149770.1803149770.060.240314977FF26.244722.244249465.8686107041100.468038243304071623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253425758.80248.12853.46500.0303149770.1803149770.060.240314977FF26.802722.802249465.8686107041100.487462738843731623525250DRYMH
2025-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253425759.5448.86654.20300.0460630170.1260630170.060.186063017FF27.54724.54249465.8686107041100.513191324143121633525255DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253425760.33249.17254.75200.0559055420.2559055420.060.315905542FF28.332724.332249465.8686107041100.540738628511141633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253425760.78250.14455.46300.0559055420.2559055420.060.315905542FF28.782726.782249465.8686107041100.556312267102481633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20253425760.06249.83854.9500.0712598810.2612598810.060.321259881FF28.062723.062249465.8686107041100.531362782495061633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253425760.27850.1855.22900.1000000540.1600000540.060.220000054FF28.278722.278249465.8686107041100.538865102469681633525255DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253425757.88449.6453.76200.1000000540.1600000540.070.230000054FF25.884722.884249465.8686107041100.455543674908291623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253425758.11849.96454.04100.106299270.196299270.070.26629927FF26.118722.118249465.8686107041100.463660924153031623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253425755.97647.06651.521000.110.060.17FF23.976704.976249465.8686107041100.390340451461131623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253425758.58646.0452.313000.110.060.17FF26.586709.586249465.8686107041100.479937512633151623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST2025342575946.27452.637000.110.060.17FF27712249465.8686107041100.494364852074851623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253425757.95642.9850.46800.0090551230.1290551230.060.189055123FF25.956713.956249465.8686107041100.458039473516981623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253425754.69842.9848.83900.0090551230.1290551230.060.189055123FF22.698712.698249465.8686107041100.348218784546841623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253425755.74243.62849.68500.0578740470.1478740470.070.217874047FF23.742717.742249465.8686107041100.382514209069021623525250DRYMH
2025-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20253425759.66645.80652.736000.080.090.17FF27.666720.666249465.8686107041100.517581482195771633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253425759.66645.62652.646000.080.090.17FF27.666719.666249465.8686107041100.517581482195771633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20253425759.52246.3152.916000.050.080.13FF27.522721.522249465.8686107041100.512564015751691633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253425765.26449.15457.2090000.060.06FF33.264723.264249465.8686107041100.703112235102011643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253425765.26449.15457.2090000.060.06FF33.264723.264249465.8686107041100.703112235102011643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253425761.7949.60455.6970000.060.06FF29.79715.79249465.8686107041100.590848431488241633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253425757.21846.11251.6650000.060.06FF25.218709.218249465.8686107041100.432553296656771623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253425757.50644.651.0530000.060.06FF25.506710.506249465.8686107041100.44247175543271623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253425758.58644.651.5930000.060.06FF26.586713.586249465.8686107041100.479937512633151623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253425752.37640.7346.55300.0149606380.0249606380.060.084960638FF20.376702.376249465.8686107041100.276558934654611623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253425752.37640.7346.55300.0149606380.0249606380.060.084960638FF20.376704.376249465.8686107041100.276558934654611623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253425755.70644.29450000.010.070.08FF23.706715.706249465.8686107041100.381314329234231623515225DRYL
2025-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253425753.43844.31248.8750000.080.08FF21.438712.438249465.8686107041100.308444121124771623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20253425753.43844.31248.8750000.110.11FF21.438712.438249465.8686107041100.308444121124771623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253425754.80648.95651.8810000.090.09FF22.806716.806249465.8686107041100.351715097972571623515225DRYL
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253425747.33642.85445.0950000.10.1FF15.336679.336249465.8686107041100.150619632794721613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253425747.33642.85445.0950000.160.16FF15.336672.336249465.8686107041100.150619632794721613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253425741.75640.6441.19800.0145669370.0645669370.20.264566937FF9.756662.756249465.8686107041100.0639617751198511613515222.5DRYL