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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 5, 2025

[ Thursday, September 4, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 6, 2025 ]

DAY 340 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/06/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 73.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 68.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.872
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 735

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.07 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 247
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 55

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-06 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253405573.9599863.1000468.530010000.070.07FF41.95998734.95998247464.86134940078 00.871530798693516 53515165DRYH
2025-09-06 00:00:01FORECAST20253405566.8354.89660.86300.0019685050.0019685050.070.071968505FF34.83727.83247464.8613494007800.697936755732571633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-05 12:00:01FORECAST20253405569.47654.84262.15900.0027559070.0027559070.070.072755907FF37.476730.476247464.8613494007800.772379025004341643515160DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253405570.05254.48262.26700.0070866180.0070866180.070.077086618FF38.052731.052247464.8613494007800.787098562897111643515160DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253405569.78255.1362.45600.0114173290.0114173290.070.081417329FF37.782730.782247464.8613494007800.78026892830951643515160DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253405571.72654.82463.27500.0094488240.0094488240.070.079448824FF39.726726.726247464.8613494007800.826603776499511643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20253405571.25855.97663.61700.011811030.011811030.070.08181103FF39.258727.258247464.8613494007800.816058359738811643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253405572.73457.21864.97600.0070866180.0070866180.070.077086618FF40.734728.734247464.8613494007800.847983350566451643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253405572.4158.40665.40800.0074803190.0074803190.070.077480319FF40.41728.41247464.8613494007800.841310448303211643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253405571.99658.3765.18300.003937010.003937010.070.07393701FF39.996728.996247464.8613494007800.832509389917711643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253405571.7858.24465.01200.0141732360.0141732360.070.084173236FF39.78728.78247464.8613494007800.827795355513271643515160DRYH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253405571.0658.87464.96700.0094488240.0094488240.070.079448824FF39.06724.06247464.8613494007800.811479370868921643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253405571.20458.78464.99400.007874020.007874020.070.07787402FF39.204725.204247464.8613494007800.814816450510851643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253405571.3359.25265.29100.011811030.011811030.070.08181103FF39.33726.33247464.8613494007800.817706168064041643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 12:00:01FORECAST20253405572.44659.2765.85800.0169291430.0169291430.070.086929143FF40.446727.446247464.8613494007800.842061199871261643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253405572.26659.48665.87600.0051181130.0051181130.070.075118113FF40.266729.266247464.8613494007800.838284144948091643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:03FORECAST20253405571.97857.90264.9400.0035433090.0035433090.070.073543309FF39.978727.978247464.8613494007800.832119750959481643515160DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253405571.58256.64264.11200.0015748040.0015748040.070.071574804FF39.582722.582247464.8613494007800.823400707569981643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 20:00:01FORECAST20253405571.43855.88663.66200.0003937010.0003937010.070.070393701FF39.438719.438247464.8613494007800.820160562857541643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253405571.3356.08463.70700.0062992160.0162992160.070.086299216FF39.33720.33247464.8613494007800.817706168064041643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 12:00:01FORECAST20253405571.36656.85864.11200.0366141930.0366141930.070.106614193FF39.366721.366247464.8613494007800.818526610076871643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253405570.75456.82263.78800.0366141930.0366141930.070.106614193FF38.754722.754247464.8613494007800.80426622196721643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253405569.74656.5763.15800.011811030.011811030.070.08181103FF37.746721.746247464.8613494007800.77934891916451643515160DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:01FORECAST20253405568.66656.58862.62700.0370078940.0370078940.070.107007894FF36.666718.666247464.8613494007800.750744203094711643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253405569.33257.5663.44600.0370078940.0370078940.070.107007894FF37.332720.332247464.8613494007800.768611731536371643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20253405569.18857.43463.31100.0177165450.0177165450.070.087716545FF37.188719.188247464.8613494007800.764809978178311643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253405569.22456.94863.08600.0035433090.0035433090.070.073543309FF37.224718.224247464.8613494007800.765763632334281643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253405571.49257.59664.54400.0035433090.0135433090.070.083543309FF39.492720.492247464.8613494007800.821379957441751643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253405570.14257.36263.752000.010.070.08FF38.142719.142247464.8613494007800.789347333309251643515160DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253405568.01854.80661.41200.0082677210.0082677210.070.078267721FF36.018707.018247464.8613494007800.732680557448531643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253405567.71255.16661.43900.0082677210.0082677210.070.078267721FF35.712708.712247464.8613494007800.723926919763971643515230DRYL
2025-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253405569.8955.54462.71700.0082677210.0082677210.070.078267721FF37.89709.89247464.8613494007800.7830157284761643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253405569.83655.9462.8880000.070.07FF37.836710.836247464.8613494007800.781644811795341643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253405569.855.99462.8970000.070.07FF37.8712.8247464.8613494007800.780728107278271643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253405570.86255.92263.392000.010.070.08FF38.862716.862247464.8613494007800.806830912904021643515160DRYH
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253405570.41257.48863.9500.0055118140.0355118140.070.105511814FF38.412715.412247464.8613494007800.796009640867951643515160DRYH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253405570.71857.77664.24700.0055118140.0355118140.070.105511814FF38.718715.718247464.8613494007800.803406762635611643515160DRYH
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253405570.8857.79464.33700.0055118140.0255118140.070.095511814FF38.88717.88247464.8613494007800.807256362571721643515160DRYH
2025-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253405567.96457.34462.6540000.070.07FF35.964713.964247464.8613494007800.73114601770211643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253405567.24456.40861.8260000.070.07FF35.244714.244247464.8613494007800.710272941309611643515230DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253405566.41656.8461.6280000.070.07FF34.416713.416247464.8613494007800.685370308094491633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20253405569.04455.86862.4560000.070.07FF37.044711.044247464.8613494007800.760974039601661643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253405568.68455.18461.9340000.070.07FF36.684711.684247464.8613494007800.751236552948921643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253405568.75655.65262.2040000.070.07FF36.756712.756247464.8613494007800.75320077064381643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253405568.55855.27461.91600.007874020.007874020.070.07787402FF36.558709.558247464.8613494007800.747779271729881643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253405568.73855.27462.00600.007874020.007874020.070.07787402FF36.738711.738247464.8613494007800.752710494745061643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253405571.56458.22664.89500.0062992160.0062992160.080.086299216FF39.564715.564247464.8613494007800.822997715639761643515160DRYH
2025-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253405574.2159.41466.8120000.090.09FF42.21712.21247464.8613494007800.876004926416391653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253405574.2159.41466.8120000.120.12FF42.21712.21247464.8613494007800.876004926416391653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253405574.2159.82867.0190000.10.1FF42.21714.21247464.8613494007800.876004926416391653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253405564.99451.7158.352000.010.10.11FF32.994697.994247464.8613494007800.640625151552331633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253405564.99451.7158.352000.010.160.17FF32.994690.994247464.8613494007800.640625151552331633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253405562.07849.42455.75100.019685050.029685050.20.22968505FF30.078688.078247464.8613494007800.543259438859381633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253405568.75656.49862.6270000.20.2FF36.756684.756247464.8613494007800.75320077064381643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253405568.75656.49862.6270000.190.19FF36.756684.756247464.8613494007800.75320077064381643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST2025340556855.0461.520000.20.2FF36679247464.8613494007800.732169534966921643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253405567.92850.64859.2880000.160.16FF35.928667.928247464.8613494007800.730120542441681643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253405567.92850.64859.2880000.160.16FF35.928667.928247464.8613494007800.730120542441681643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253405564.9446.27455.6070000.20.2FF32.94653.94247464.8613494007800.638882433244851633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20253405551.27844.81648.04700.0031496080.0031496080.220.223149608FF19.278628.278247464.8613494007800.205303781490211613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253405551.27844.81648.04700.0031496080.0031496080.340.343149608FF19.278624.278247464.8613494007800.205303781490211613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253405552.12449.33450.7290000.330.33FF20.124629.124247464.8613494007800.226675119350191613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253405552.91647.5750.2430000.480.48FF20.916636.916247464.8613494007800.247770380396951613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253405552.91647.5750.2430000.490.49FF20.916638.916247464.8613494007800.247770380396951613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253405549.71247.78648.7490000.570.57FF17.712631.712247464.8613494007800.16904474260111613515222.5DRYL