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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 24, 2025

[ Tuesday, September 23, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 25, 2025 ]

DAY 359 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/25/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.77°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.803
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 525

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.73 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.74 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 266
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 74

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-25 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253597467.5199454.7761.14497000.010.730.74FF35.51994524.51994266474.12818211957 00.8028025286389216 44415230DRYL
2025-09-25 00:00:01FORECAST20253597464.68849.20856.948000.010.730.74FF32.688521.688266474.1281821195700.734791783562731644415230DRYL
2025-09-24 12:00:01FORECAST20253597464.68848.90256.795000.010.730.74FF32.688521.688266474.1281821195700.734791783562731644415230DRYL
2025-09-24 10:22:47FORECAST20253597464.92248.86656.894000.010.730.74FF32.922521.922266474.1281821195700.740828663360911644415230DRYL
2025-09-24 08:00:01FORECAST20253597465.3949.5557.47000.010.730.74FF33.39522.39266474.1281821195700.75268606990221644415230DRYL
2025-09-24 04:00:02FORECAST20253597465.87650.12658.001000.010.730.74FF33.876522.876266474.1281821195700.764686207915651644415230DRYL
2025-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253597466.00250.64858.325000.010.730.74FF34.002517.002266474.1281821195700.767744132515961644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253597466.05651.45858.757000.010.730.74FF34.056516.056266474.1281821195700.769047883129861644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253597465.28251.3558.316000.010.730.74FF33.282515.282266474.1281821195700.749975696696651644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253597465.2151.20658.208000.010.730.74FF33.21515.21266474.1281821195700.748160076338191644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253597465.89451.76458.829000.010.730.74FF33.894515.894266474.1281821195700.765124408247131644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 04:00:02FORECAST20253597465.89452.21459.054000.010.730.74FF33.894515.894266474.1281821195700.765124408247131644415230DRYL
2025-09-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253597465.87652.124590000.730.73FF33.876513.876266474.1281821195700.764686207915651644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253597465.5751.83658.7030000.730.73FF33.57513.57266474.1281821195700.75716827766131644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 16:00:01FORECAST20253597466.68652.64659.6660000.730.73FF34.686514.686266474.1281821195700.783953453103851644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253597466.59652.759.6480000.730.73FF34.596514.596266474.1281821195700.781858771626831644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253597466.25452.48459.3690000.730.73FF34.254514.254266474.1281821195700.77379323652011644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 04:00:03FORECAST20253597466.3852.80859.5940000.730.73FF34.38516.38266474.1281821195700.776784145593191644415230DRYL
2025-09-22 00:00:01FORECAST20253597466.7453.22259.9810000.720.72FF34.74510.74266474.1281821195700.785204659859241644415230DRYL
2025-09-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253597467.0153.25860.1340000.740.74FF35.01512.01266474.1281821195700.791397343608021644415230DRYL
2025-09-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253597467.3753.13260.2510000.740.74FF35.37512.37266474.1281821195700.799488724800651644415230DRYL
2025-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253597467.6453.45660.5480000.740.74FF35.64512.64266474.1281821195700.805431969652991644415230DRYL
2025-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253597468.1853.5160.8450000.70.7FF36.18514.18266474.1281821195700.816993108681081644415160DRYH
2025-09-21 04:00:03FORECAST20253597468.1854.6861.430001.021.02FF36.18515.18266474.1281821195700.816993108681081644415160DRYH
2025-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253597468.23454.82461.5290000.80.8FF36.234510.234266474.1281821195700.818125221172951644415160DRYH
2025-09-20 20:00:02FORECAST20253597468.05454.75261.4030000.770.77FF36.054511.054266474.1281821195700.814334499479211644415160DRYH
2025-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253597467.62254.57261.0970000.730.73FF35.622508.622266474.1281821195700.805039112993581644415230DRYL
2025-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253597465.24650.82858.0370000.760.76FF33.246505.246266474.1281821195700.749068754338641644415230DRYL
2025-09-20 08:00:01FORECAST20253597464.6750.43257.5510000.780.78FF32.67505.67266474.1281821195700.734324471975971644415230DRYL
2025-09-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253597464.11249.94657.0290000.770.77FF32.112502.112266474.1281821195700.719634110824211644415230DRYL
2025-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253597464.29250.88257.5870000.960.96FF32.292495.292266474.1281821195700.724415594403861644315227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253597463.60849.98256.7950000.980.98FF31.608497.608266474.1281821195700.706036484475791644315227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253597463.66249.78456.7230000.830.83FF31.662494.662266474.1281821195700.707507846881551644315227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253597465.28249.49657.3890000.720.72FF33.282496.282266474.1281821195700.749975696696651644315227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253597463.03248.32655.6790000.730.73FF31.032492.032266474.1281821195700.690133685435861634315225DRYL
2025-09-19 04:01:06FORECAST20253597462.81648.68655.7510000.710.71FF30.816496.816266474.1281821195700.684075014919411634315225DRYL
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253597459.03647.35453.1950000.710.71FF27.036495.036266474.1281821195700.571346518586231634315225DRYL
2025-09-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253597459.03647.35453.1950000.730.73FF27.036495.036266474.1281821195700.571346518586231634315225DRYL
2025-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253597459.1847.40853.2940000.730.73FF27.18496.18266474.1281821195700.575817855453851634315225DRYL
2025-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20253597455.20246.02250.61200.1972442010.1972442010.780.977244201FF23.202493.202266474.1281821195700.450741050227261624325245DRYM
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253597457.77648.86653.32100.1972442010.1972442010.720.917244201FF25.776497.776266474.1281821195700.531893734092341634325250DRYMH
2025-09-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253597458.92848.97453.95100.1984253040.1984253040.740.938425304FF26.928497.928266474.1281821195700.567986963770991634325250DRYMH
2025-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20253597462.88850.48656.6870000.690.69FF30.888495.888266474.1281821195700.686100174088721634315225DRYL
2025-09-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253597463.548.45255.9760000.630.63FF31.5495.5266474.1281821195700.703083549533841644315227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253597459.07246.452.73600.0102362260.0102362260.660.670236226FF27.072492.072266474.1281821195700.572465234975791634315225DRYL
2025-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253597455.63444.88850.26100.1342520410.1642520410.580.744252041FF23.634482.634266474.1281821195700.464309820365051624325245DRYM
2025-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20253597452.19644.88848.54200.1342520410.1642520410.580.744252041FF20.196480.196266474.1281821195700.358743844736631624325245DRYM
2025-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253597452.05246.14849.100.0842520140.2042520140.640.844252014FF20.052479.052266474.1281821195700.354491908598931624325245DRYM
2025-09-17 00:00:03FORECAST20253597450.10841.37845.74300.1066929710.2266929710.650.876692971FF18.108475.108266474.1281821195700.299040688365651624325245DRYM
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253597450.03641.16245.59900.1122047850.2322047850.660.892204785FF18.036477.036266474.1281821195700.297064116851031624325245DRYM
2025-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20253597451.13441.95446.54400.1047244660.3447244660.520.864724466FF19.134476.134266474.1281821195700.327829572834871624325245DRYM
2025-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253597454.39246.29250.34200.0468504190.0668504190.550.616850419FF22.392484.392266474.1281821195700.425466301215431624315222.5DRYL
2025-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20253597454.66246.88650.77400.0468504190.0668504190.550.616850419FF22.662487.662266474.1281821195700.433862523659461624315222.5DRYL
2025-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253597454.55446.90450.72900.1559055960.3159055960.71.015905596FF22.554485.554266474.1281821195700.430500232123421624325245DRYM
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253597456.5744.74450.65700.1700788320.4700788320.520.990078832FF24.57469.57266474.1281821195700.493830532417631624325245DRYM
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253597456.53444.72650.6300.1728347390.4628347390.520.982834739FF24.534469.534266474.1281821195700.492693456283071624325245DRYM
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253597455.92244.13250.02700.1984253040.2584253040.720.978425304FF23.922471.922266474.1281821195700.473379774516391624325245DRYM
2025-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253597457.00239.52448.26300.2527560420.2527560420.490.742756042FF25.002483.002266474.1281821195700.507476713494471634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20253597456.85839.52448.19100.2527560420.2527560420.490.742756042FF24.858482.858266474.1281821195700.502928170025951634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253597455.1338.17446.65200.2866143280.6466143280.51.146614328FF23.13474.13266474.1281821195700.448484740952441624335267.5DRYH
2025-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253597446.86839.4743.16900.1984253040.2684253040.420.688425304FF14.868466.868266474.1281821195700.216589757833151614325240DRYM
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253597446.86839.4743.16900.1984253040.2684253040.620.888425304FF14.868461.868266474.1281821195700.216589757833151614325240DRYM
2025-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20253597447.19238.78642.98900.3279529330.3479529330.610.957952933FF15.192465.192266474.1281821195700.224195804586361614325240DRYM
2025-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253597451.76447.40849.586000.132.042.17FF19.764446.764266474.1281821195700.346042649011751624325245DRYM
2025-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20253597451.76447.40849.586000.131.92.03FF19.764436.764266474.1281821195700.346042649011751624325245DRYM
2025-09-14 04:00:04FORECAST20253597438.46238.338.38100.0055118141.0255118141.942.965511814FF6.462423.462266474.1281821195700.0735034371143811614345280DRYVH