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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 23, 2025

[ Monday, September 22, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 24, 2025 ]

DAY 358 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/24/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 52.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.906
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 527

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 265
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 73

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 130.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-24 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253587372.2800452.7799262.52998000.491.11.59FF40.28004527.28004265473.65695444609 00.9060898475315416 544251130DRYVH
2025-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253587366.30846.14856.228000.491.11.59FF34.308521.308265473.6569544460900.802637130804871644425260DRYH
2025-09-23 12:00:01FORECAST20253587364.81446.1355.472000.491.11.59FF32.814519.814265473.6569544460900.768705539967381644425260DRYH
2025-09-23 08:00:01FORECAST20253587365.22846.32855.778000.491.11.59FF33.228520.228265473.6569544460900.778420092301181644425260DRYH
2025-09-23 04:00:02FORECAST20253587365.40846.52655.967000.491.11.59FF33.408520.408265473.6569544460900.782570103885961644425260DRYH
2025-09-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253587365.91246.50856.21000.481.11.58FF33.912517.912265473.6569544460900.79394898155431644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253587365.76848.23657.002000.481.11.58FF33.768517.768265473.6569544460900.790734374395321644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 16:00:01FORECAST20253587365.73248.66857.2000.481.11.58FF33.732517.732265473.6569544460900.789926143133021644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253587365.96649.26257.614000.481.11.58FF33.966517.966265473.6569544460900.795146884160371644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253587365.91249.7357.821000.481.11.58FF33.912517.912265473.6569544460900.79394898155431644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 04:00:03FORECAST20253587366.50650.30658.406000.481.11.58FF34.506519.506265473.6569544460900.806897017178781644425260DRYH
2025-09-22 00:00:01FORECAST20253587366.59650.32458.46000.471.11.57FF34.596513.596265473.6569544460900.808814669526691644425260DRYH
2025-09-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253587366.59650.16258.379000.491.11.59FF34.596514.596265473.6569544460900.808814669526691644425260DRYH
2025-09-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253587366.72249.49658.109000.491.11.59FF34.722514.722265473.6569544460900.811479730457791644425260DRYH
2025-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253587366.90250.2758.586000.491.11.59FF34.902514.902265473.6569544460900.815247082634131644425260DRYH
2025-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253587366.95650.07258.514000.451.11.55FF34.956515.956265473.6569544460900.81636811960361644425260DRYH
2025-09-21 04:00:03FORECAST20253587367.26250.4558.856000.771.11.87FF35.262517.262265473.6569544460900.822640497138171644435290DRYVH
2025-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253587367.1950.70258.946000.551.11.65FF35.19512.19265473.6569544460900.821176921382081644435290DRYVH
2025-09-20 20:00:01FORECAST20253587367.17250.88259.027000.521.11.62FF35.172513.172265473.6569544460900.820809845721321644435290DRYVH
2025-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253587366.88450.19858.541000.481.11.58FF34.884510.884265473.6569544460900.814872462379971644425260DRYH
2025-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253587366.45249.74858.1000.511.11.61FF34.452510.452265473.6569544460900.8057408216951644435290DRYVH
2025-09-20 08:00:01FORECAST20253587366.57849.9158.244000.531.11.63FF34.578510.578265473.6569544460900.808432073935281644435290DRYVH
2025-09-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253587365.53449.24457.389000.521.11.62FF33.534507.534265473.6569544460900.785448266917051644435290DRYVH
2025-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253587365.62449.24457.434000.711.11.81FF33.624500.624265473.6569544460900.787490493812141644435290DRYVH
2025-09-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253587365.7549.17257.461000.731.11.83FF33.75503.75265473.6569544460900.790330487330821644435290DRYVH
2025-09-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253587365.62448.70457.164000.581.11.68FF33.624500.624265473.6569544460900.787490493812141644435290DRYVH
2025-09-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253587365.80448.09256.948000.471.11.57FF33.804500.804265473.6569544460900.791540776026551644425260DRYH
2025-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253587365.1247.46256.291000.481.11.58FF33.12499.12265473.6569544460900.775908548865461644425260DRYH
2025-09-19 04:01:01FORECAST20253587366.84849.62258.235000.461.11.56FF34.848503.848265473.6569544460900.814121810840451644425260DRYH
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253587365.62448.75857.191000.461.11.56FF33.624505.624265473.6569544460900.787490493812141644425260DRYH
2025-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253587365.62448.75857.191000.481.11.58FF33.624505.624265473.6569544460900.787490493812141644425260DRYH
2025-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253587366.16450.39658.28000.481.11.58FF34.164507.164265473.6569544460900.799503700804531644425260DRYH
2025-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20253587365.96650.01857.992000.531.11.63FF33.966507.966265473.6569544460900.795146884160371644435290DRYVH
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253587366.7449.42458.082000.471.11.57FF34.74509.74265473.6569544460900.811858578792831644425260DRYH
2025-09-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253587366.79449.8258.307000.481.111.59FF34.794508.794265473.6569544460900.812992308184611644425260DRYH
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253587365.51650.21657.866000.391.151.54FF33.516502.516265473.6569544460900.785038459336261644425260DRYH
2025-09-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253587365.10248.41656.759000.341.141.48FF33.102502.102265473.6569544460900.775488394646431644425260DRYH
2025-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253587365.01248.12856.57000.381.131.51FF33.012503.012265473.6569544460900.773380943246111644425260DRYH
2025-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253587361.44846.86854.15800.0232283590.3432283591.121.463228359FF29.448497.448265473.6569544460900.681606095211441634325250DRYMH
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253587360.99846.6753.83400.0232283590.3432283591.121.463228359FF28.998497.998265473.6569544460900.668987157902281634325250DRYMH
2025-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253587360.51246.32853.4200.1059055690.4359055691.171.605905569FF28.512496.512265473.6569544460900.655140272231461634325250DRYMH
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253587359.1845.64452.41200.1208662070.4508662071.171.620866207FF27.18495.18265473.6569544460900.616160301147291634325250DRYMH
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253587359.21645.71652.46600.1216536090.4416536091.191.631653609FF27.216497.216265473.6569544460900.617231507202951634325250DRYMH
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253587359.16245.71652.43900.2448820220.4948820221.121.614882022FF27.162495.162265473.6569544460900.615624364623591634335275DRYVH
2025-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253587362.83449.49656.16500.0212598540.2412598541.181.421259854FF30.834499.834265473.6569544460900.719121582010691644425260DRYH
2025-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20253587361.4349.56855.49900.0212598540.2412598541.181.421259854FF29.43503.43265473.6569544460900.681105234583561634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253587359.28849.33454.31100.1263780210.3363780211.371.706378021FF27.288501.288265473.6569544460900.619371224480361634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253587356.22846.23851.233000.461.211.67FF24.228483.228265473.6569544460900.526039534228341634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253587356.24646.23851.242000.461.21.66FF24.246483.246265473.6569544460900.526598035217961634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253587357.9248.05652.98800.0562992430.5062992431.121.626299243FF25.92485.92265473.6569544460900.578164766832711634335275DRYVH
2025-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253587361.39448.90255.148000.181.161.34FF29.394496.394265473.6569544460900.680102522012011634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20253587361.32249.20855.265000.181.161.34FF29.322496.322265473.6569544460900.678093153143141634325250DRYMH
2025-09-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253587356.42644.31250.36900.3393702620.5893702621.121.709370262FF24.426489.426265473.6569544460900.532179989392231634335275DRYVH
2025-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253587356.26444.83450.54900.0358267910.1258267911.211.335826791FF24.264490.264265473.6569544460900.527156483929681634325250DRYMH
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253587356.26444.83450.54900.0358267910.1258267911.411.535826791FF24.264485.264265473.6569544460900.527156483929681634325250DRYMH
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253587357.43446.7652.09700.0220472560.0620472561.421.482047256FF25.434488.434265473.6569544460900.563291400981161634315225DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253587355.11237.0446.076001.561.463.02TF23.112465.112265473.6569544460900.4913561200071516243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20253587355.11237.61646.364001.561.322.88FF23.112455.112265473.6569544460900.4913561200071516243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-14 04:00:04FORECAST20253587350.2736.6843.47500.90551232.41551231.393.8055123TF18.27455.27265473.6569544460900.3449171580196716243552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253587345.75240.15442.95300.1452756690.1752756691.261.435275669FF13.752450.752265473.6569544460900.22624358610431614325240DRYM
2025-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20253587345.75240.15442.95300.1452756690.1752756691.271.445275669FF13.752447.752265473.6569544460900.22624358610431614325240DRYM
2025-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253587345.08641.66643.37600.102362260.272362261.171.44236226FF13.086447.086265473.6569544460900.210928972349181614325240DRYM
2025-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20253587347.55245.24846.400.1444882670.3344882671.441.774488267FF15.552425.552265473.6569544460900.270617099719451624325245DRYM
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253587347.55245.24846.400.1444882670.3344882671.471.804488267FF15.552428.552265473.6569544460900.270617099719451624325245DRYM
2025-09-13 04:00:05FORECAST20253587351.9851.7151.845000.061.431.49FF19.98444.98265473.6569544460900.395199528343971624315222.5DRYL