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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 22, 2025

[ Sunday, September 21, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 23, 2025 ]

DAY 357 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/23/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.656
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 529

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 264
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 72

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-23 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253577259.8699436.1999448.0349400.00999999999999090.489999999999991.11.59FF27.86994528.86994264473.18393270088 00.6557294741984616 34425255DRYH
2025-09-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253577256.71436.80646.76000.481.11.58FF24.714525.714264473.1839327008800.553722764081081634425255DRYH
2025-09-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253577256.51636.64446.58000.481.11.58FF24.516525.516264473.1839327008800.547124260182691634425255DRYH
2025-09-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253577257.05636.51846.787000.481.11.58FF25.056526.056264473.1839327008800.565084196146391634425255DRYH
2025-09-22 04:00:02FORECAST20253577257.57837.47247.525000.481.11.58FF25.578526.578264473.1839327008800.582319136590221634425255DRYH
2025-09-22 00:00:01FORECAST20253577258.04636.84247.444000.471.11.57FF26.046521.046264473.1839327008800.597638865156561634425255DRYH
2025-09-21 20:00:01FORECAST20253577257.99237.5847.786000.491.11.59FF25.992521.992264473.1839327008800.595878360718171634425255DRYH
2025-09-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253577258.0137.3147.66000.491.11.59FF26.01522.01264473.1839327008800.596465413171621634425255DRYH
2025-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253577258.33437.79648.065000.491.11.59FF26.334522.334264473.1839327008800.606993991535961634425255DRYH
2025-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253577258.49637.7648.128000.451.11.55FF26.496523.496264473.1839327008800.612229602807231634425255DRYH
2025-09-21 04:00:03FORECAST2025357725937.43648.218000.771.11.87FF27524264473.1839327008800.628384248889471634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-21 00:00:01FORECAST20253577258.8237.6748.245000.551.11.65FF26.82518.82264473.1839327008800.622638979552231634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-20 20:00:01FORECAST20253577258.9137.61648.263000.521.11.62FF26.91519.91264473.1839327008800.625515096310021634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253577257.88437.34647.615000.481.11.58FF25.884517.884264473.1839327008800.592351555521481634425255DRYH
2025-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253577257.66837.50847.588000.511.11.61FF25.668517.668264473.1839327008800.585275724735761634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-20 08:00:01FORECAST20253577257.57837.47247.525000.531.11.63FF25.578517.578264473.1839327008800.582319136590221634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-20 04:00:02FORECAST20253577257.32636.546.913000.521.11.62FF25.326516.326264473.1839327008800.574016419842291634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253577256.89436.10446.499000.711.11.81FF24.894508.894264473.1839327008800.559708571223851634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-19 20:00:01FORECAST20253577257.00236.64446.823000.731.11.83FF25.002512.002264473.1839327008800.563293606760871634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-19 16:00:01FORECAST20253577256.35436.80646.58000.581.11.68FF24.354509.354264473.1839327008800.541715704746271634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-19 12:00:01FORECAST20253577256.24636.10446.175000.471.11.57FF24.246509.246264473.1839327008800.538105642691691634425255DRYH
2025-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253577255.79636.06845.932000.481.11.58FF23.796507.796264473.1839327008800.523033268036741634425255DRYH
2025-09-19 04:00:57FORECAST20253577257.63237.32847.48000.461.11.56FF25.632510.632264473.1839327008800.584093659056871634425255DRYH
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253577257.79437.99447.89400.0003937010.4603937011.11.560393701FF25.794513.794264473.1839327008800.58940681100651634425255DRYH
2025-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20253577257.79438.49848.14600.0003937010.4803937011.11.580393701FF25.794513.794264473.1839327008800.58940681100651634425255DRYH
2025-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20253577258.139.70448.90200.0003937010.4803937011.11.580393701FF26.1515.1264473.1839327008800.599397391853091634425255DRYH
2025-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253577259.10839.57849.343000.531.11.63FF27.108516.108264473.1839327008800.631817831872071634435282.5DRYVH
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253577259.23439.97449.604000.471.11.57FF27.234517.234264473.1839327008800.635810399213671634425255DRYH
2025-09-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253577259.4539.6549.55000.491.11.59FF27.45516.45264473.1839327008800.642620433593971634425255DRYH
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253577258.53239.50649.019000.441.11.54FF26.532510.532264473.1839327008800.613390343932341634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 20:00:01FORECAST20253577257.93839.59648.767000.381.11.48FF25.938510.938264473.1839327008800.59411591273461634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253577257.54239.25448.398000.411.11.51FF25.542511.542264473.1839327008800.581135187461541634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253577256.37239.79448.08300.0133858340.3433858341.11.443385834FF24.372510.372264473.1839327008800.54231705551321634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253577255.56239.7447.65100.0133858340.3433858341.11.443385834FF23.562510.562264473.1839327008800.515181214618991634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253577255.29240.13647.71400.0133858340.4033858341.11.503385834FF23.292510.292264473.1839327008800.506114026648591634425255DRYH
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253577256.82242.40449.613000.41.11.5FF24.822509.822264473.1839327008800.557315806783811634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253577257.52443.6150.567000.411.11.51FF25.524511.524264473.1839327008800.58054293655481634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253577257.16442.76449.964000.271.11.37FF25.164510.164264473.1839327008800.56866133791171634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253577257.41642.3549.883000.31.11.4FF25.416511.416264473.1839327008800.57698564451841634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20253577258.89243.86251.377000.31.11.4FF26.892515.892264473.1839327008800.624940425356611634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253577258.08243.66450.87300.0271653690.4771653691.11.577165369FF26.082516.082264473.1839327008800.598811438142621634425255DRYH
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253577254.39239.97447.18300.2984253580.5684253581.11.668425358FF22.392501.392264473.1839327008800.475893573273721624435275DRYVH
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253577254.01439.77646.89500.2909450390.5609450391.11.660945039FF22.014501.014264473.1839327008800.463232230460981624435275DRYVH
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253577254.8639.84847.35400.0047244120.4747244121.11.574724412FF22.86501.86264473.1839327008800.491601903311581624425250DRYMH
2025-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253577256.9343.05249.991000.241.11.34FF24.93508.93264473.1839327008800.560904141951031634425255DRYH
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253577257.00242.96249.982000.241.11.34FF25.002509.002264473.1839327008800.563293606760871634425255DRYH
2025-09-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253577253.5140.76647.13800.0169291430.2669291431.11.366929143FF21.51506.51264473.1839327008800.446410398184571624425250DRYMH
2025-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20253577254.91443.62849.27100.0311023790.1311023791.171.301102379FF22.914507.914264473.1839327008800.493415704789561624425250DRYMH
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253577254.91443.10649.0100.0311023790.1311023791.371.501102379FF22.914502.914264473.1839327008800.493415704789561624425250DRYMH
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253577256.7543.9750.36000.091.371.46FF24.75504.75264473.1839327008800.554920950081731634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20253577245.6838.08441.88200.1318898351.6318898351.393.021889835TF13.68483.68264473.1839327008800.2135530735433816143552100DRYVH
2025-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20253577246.09437.83241.96300.1318898351.6318898351.252.881889835FF14.094474.094264473.1839327008800.2238425533367316143552100DRYVH
2025-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253577246.88639.09242.98900.1070866721.5670866721.332.897086672FF14.886478.886264473.1839327008800.2442897139240116143552100DRYVH
2025-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20253577253.90645.33849.62200.0283464720.0283464721.261.288346472FF21.906478.906264473.1839327008800.459620970179251624315222.5DRYL
2025-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20253577253.90645.33849.62200.0283464720.0283464721.271.298346472FF21.906475.906264473.1839327008800.459620970179251624315222.5DRYL
2025-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20253577252.6144.79848.70400.1708662340.1708662341.171.340866234FF20.61475.61264473.1839327008800.416629089786921624325245DRYM
2025-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20253577252.41242.81847.61500.1000000540.2000000541.431.630000054FF20.412452.412264473.1839327008800.41013478204181624325245DRYM
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253577253.2441.88247.56100.1000000540.2000000541.461.660000054FF21.24455.24264473.1839327008800.437436266685951624325245DRYM
2025-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20253577256.0341.3648.69500.0133858340.0733858341.421.493385834FF24.03467.03264473.1839327008800.530876388772461634315225DRYL
2025-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20253577243.6132.93638.273000.011.231.24FF11.61451.61264473.1839327008800.166384242803561614315220DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20253577244.18632.93638.561000.011.171.18FF12.186451.186264473.1839327008800.178781709888071614315220DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253577246.18439.4742.8270001.271.27FF14.184458.184264473.1839327008800.226116045982921614315220DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253577245.28441.5443.412000.151.341.49FF13.284454.284264473.1839327008800.203973378705861614325240DRYM
2025-09-12 08:00:03FORECAST20253577245.28441.5443.412000.151.321.47FF13.284454.284264473.1839327008800.203973378705861614325240DRYM
2025-09-12 04:00:05FORECAST20253577245.06842.90843.988000.151.311.46FF13.068454.068264473.1839327008800.198857594040831614325240DRYM