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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 2, 2025

[ Monday, September 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 3, 2025 ]

DAY 337 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/03/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 80.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.47°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 71.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.979
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 48
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 676

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.64 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 244
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 52

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-03 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253375280.4999263.4699471.984930000.640.64FF48.49992676.49992244463.33603098816 00.9787166085854616 53515165DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:01FORECAST20253375272.5952.01662.3030000.640.64FF40.59668.59244463.3360309881600.896597338499681653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 12:00:01FORECAST20253375272.17652.14262.1590000.640.64FF40.176668.176244463.3360309881600.88922371789751653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:01FORECAST20253375273.72452.66463.1940000.640.64FF41.724669.724244463.3360309881600.914963221981621653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253375274.13852.68263.410000.640.64FF42.138670.138244463.3360309881600.921022416596411653515165DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:01FORECAST20253375276.26253.56464.9130000.640.64FF44.262666.262244463.3360309881600.947104188426511653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253375276.0154.06865.0390000.640.64FF44.01667.01244463.3360309881600.944421957509891653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253375276.20855.99466.1010000.640.64FF44.208667.208244463.3360309881600.946538212779551653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:01FORECAST20253375275.97455.45465.7140000.640.64FF43.974666.974244463.3360309881600.944030197361561653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 08:00:01FORECAST20253375276.35257.27266.8120000.640.64FF44.352667.352244463.3360309881600.948036943531441653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 04:00:02FORECAST20253375275.86657.07466.470000.640.64FF43.866667.866244463.3360309881600.942841882466381653515165DRYH
2025-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253375275.1156.31865.7140000.640.64FF43.11660.11244463.3360309881600.933961385966891653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253375274.9356.24665.5880000.640.64FF42.93660.93244463.3360309881600.931697582350241653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253375275.05655.74265.3990000.640.64FF43.056661.056244463.3360309881600.933288412769651653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253375274.91255.63465.2730000.640.64FF42.912660.912244463.3360309881600.9314679589181653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 08:00:01FORECAST20253375275.16455.77865.4710000.640.64FF43.164663.164244463.3360309881600.934629105221141653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253375275.16455.41865.2910000.640.64FF43.164664.164244463.3360309881600.934629105221141653515165DRYH
2025-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253375275.36256.19265.7770000.640.64FF43.362661.362244463.3360309881600.937032829325851653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253375275.03856.49865.7680000.640.64FF43.038661.038244463.3360309881600.933062916891371653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253375275.7457.18266.4610000.640.64FF43.74661.74244463.3360309881600.941430601046211653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253375275.03856.80465.9210000.640.64FF43.038660.038244463.3360309881600.933062916891371653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253375275.23657.43466.3350000.640.64FF43.236661.236244463.3360309881600.935511264290271653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253375275.63257.8366.7310000.640.64FF43.632662.632244463.3360309881600.940199357213531653515165DRYH
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253375276.69458.87467.7840000.640.64FF44.694658.694244463.3360309881600.951463152908281653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253375276.915967.9550000.640.64FF44.91660.91244463.3360309881600.953532643772351653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253375276.78458.02867.4060000.640.64FF44.784660.784244463.3360309881600.9523341966861653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253375275.86657.86666.8660000.640.64FF43.866658.866244463.3360309881600.942841882466381653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253375276.1958.29867.2440000.640.64FF44.19660.19244463.3360309881600.946348495026691653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253375276.3758.69467.532000.010.640.65FF44.37659.37244463.3360309881600.948221922080551653515165DRYH
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253375276.02859.52267.775000.030.630.66FF44.028654.028244463.3360309881600.944617026959261653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253375276.02859.52267.775000.050.640.69FF44.028654.028244463.3360309881600.944617026959261653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253375276.4659.48667.973000.030.640.67FF44.46655.46244463.3360309881600.949139002536661653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253375275.41657.21866.317000.020.650.67FF43.416652.416244463.3360309881600.937676334115181653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253375275.03857.59666.317000.060.670.73FF43.038648.038244463.3360309881600.933062916891371653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253375274.94857.90266.425000.080.690.77FF42.948648.948244463.3360309881600.931926613629281653515165DRYH
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253375272.93257.21865.07500.0125984320.0325984320.740.772598432FF40.932637.932244463.3360309881600.902415382598291653515165DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253375272.39256.3964.39100.0125984320.0325984320.730.762598432FF40.392640.392244463.3360309881600.893116373153791653515165DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253375272.8656.67864.76900.011811030.031811030.740.77181103FF40.86637.86244463.3360309881600.901210860689381653515165DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253375270.1653.18661.67300.0031496080.0531496080.680.733149608FF38.16630.16244463.3360309881600.847969824291821643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253375267.92851.90859.91800.0031496080.0531496080.680.733149608FF35.928628.928244463.3360309881600.791715031906141643515230DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253375268.34251.96260.15200.0011811030.0511811030.720.771181103FF36.342619.342244463.3360309881600.802984100802781643515160DRYH
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253375269.69252.19660.944000.010.780.79FF37.692613.692244463.3360309881600.837096898148061643515160DRYH
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253375270.53850.7260.629000.010.90.91FF38.538609.538244463.3360309881600.856392657224331653515165DRYH
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253375270.37650.39660.386000.010.890.9FF38.376615.376244463.3360309881600.852822120273561653515165DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253375268.68451.31459.999000.170.881.05FF36.684612.684244463.3360309881600.8120096590999116435251120DRYVH
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253375268.16251.1759.666000.170.891.06FF36.162615.162244463.3360309881600.7981304579334916435251120DRYVH
2025-08-26 04:00:05FORECAST20253375268.30651.4459.873000.180.961.14FF36.306612.306244463.3360309881600.802019052500516435251120DRYVH
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253375269.4452.12460.7820000.790.79FF37.44611.44244463.3360309881600.831038375669741643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253375269.24252.84461.0430000.790.79FF37.242619.242244463.3360309881600.826178137022621643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253375272.39254.84263.617000.020.820.84FF40.392625.392244463.3360309881600.893116373153791653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20253375269.74655.41862.582000.050.80.85FF37.746623.746244463.3360309881600.838376592168991643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253375269.74655.41862.582000.050.850.9FF37.746627.746244463.3360309881600.838376592168991643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253375268.5453.79861.169000.050.910.96FF36.54621.54244463.3360309881600.808240899859791643515160DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253375271.90658.24465.07500.0051181130.0651181130.80.865118113FF39.906624.906244463.3360309881600.884216870659911653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253375270.71857.41664.06700.0051181130.0651181130.860.925118113FF38.718626.718244463.3360309881600.86029100223191653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253375269.45855.45462.45600.0051181130.0651181130.770.835118113FF37.458620.458244463.3360309881600.831475855908711643515160DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253375264.63445.55455.094000.020.770.79FF32.634610.634244463.3360309881600.689578207927261633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-24 08:00:04FORECAST20253375264.63445.55455.094000.020.750.77FF32.634604.634244463.3360309881600.689578207927261633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253375256.1242.69249.40600.4507876450.4707876450.761.230787645FF24.12591.12244463.3360309881600.372042695944131623425245DRYM
2025-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253375251.58433.94442.76400.0007874020.0107874020.930.940787402FF19.584580.584244463.3360309881600.222449081243431613415220DRYL
2025-08-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253375251.58433.94442.76400.0007874020.0107874020.940.950787402FF19.584583.584244463.3360309881600.222449081243431613415220DRYL
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253375252.05237.5844.8160000.770.77FF20.052586.052244463.3360309881600.236131362353341613415220DRYL
2025-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253375239.8336.46438.14700.8913390641.0713390640.631.701339064FF7.83587.83244463.3360309881600.0287185862252571613445280DRYVH
2025-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20253375239.8336.46438.14700.8913390641.0713390640.631.701339064FF7.83590.83244463.3360309881600.0287185862252571613445280DRYVH
2025-08-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253375237.88634.19636.0410000.640.64FF5.886594.886244463.3360309881600.0183784687595651613415220DRYL