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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 18, 2025

[ Wednesday, September 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, September 19, 2025 ]

DAY 353 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/19/2025 04:00:42 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.554
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 589

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 260
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.27 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-19 04:00:42OBSERVATION20253536856.7100446.0299251.369980001.11.1FF24.71004588.71004260471.27376800312 00.5535549053512116 34415227.5DRYL
2025-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253536857.8343.23250.5310001.11.1FF25.83589.83260471.2737680031200.593617951372021634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253536858.49643.39450.9450001.11.1FF26.496590.496260471.2737680031200.617012827154571634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253536859.3643.19651.2780001.11.1FF27.36591.36260471.2737680031200.646727005456241634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 04:00:02FORECAST20253536859.43242.851.1160001.11.1FF27.432591.432260471.2737680031200.64916613990811634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253536860.11643.89852.0070001.11.1FF28.116586.116260471.2737680031200.672019836028031634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 20:00:01FORECAST20253536860.38644.02452.2050001.11.1FF28.386586.386260471.2737680031200.680872520224871634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 16:00:01FORECAST20253536860.3544.7852.5650001.11.1FF28.35586.35260471.2737680031200.679697958300851634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 12:00:01FORECAST20253536860.6244.72652.6730001.11.1FF28.62586.62260471.2737680031200.68846257968071634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253536860.8944.83452.8620001.11.1FF28.89587.89260471.2737680031200.697121779459811634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 04:00:02FORECAST20253536860.45845.17652.8170001.11.1FF28.458587.458260471.2737680031200.683216199552831634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253536860.76445.98653.3750001.11.1FF28.764584.764260471.2737680031200.693094191807721634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253536860.58445.96853.2760001.11.1FF28.584584.584260471.2737680031200.687299967017341634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253536860.90846.7653.8340001.11.1FF28.908584.908260471.2737680031200.697695214232821634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20253536861.66448.23654.950001.11.1FF29.664586.664260471.2737680031200.721326128014711644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253536862.8748.81255.8410001.11.1FF30.87588.87260471.2737680031200.757057310613691644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253536862.52848.1155.3190001.11.1FF30.528589.528260471.2737680031200.747182421822281644415230DRYL
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253536862.61849.71256.1650001.11.1FF30.618586.618260471.2737680031200.749801367836781644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253536861.93448.4755.2020001.11.1FF29.934585.934260471.2737680031200.729542526136191644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253536862.3348.14655.2380001.11.1FF30.33586.33260471.2737680031200.74137040420291644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20253536863.73448.63256.1830001.11.1FF31.734587.734260471.2737680031200.781049021066151644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253536863.3248.09255.7060001.11.1FF31.32586.32260471.2737680031200.769726581579251644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253536863.42848.18255.8050001.11.1FF31.428587.428260471.2737680031200.772711374833281644415230DRYL
2025-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253536860.83646.14853.4920001.171.17FF28.836580.836260471.2737680031200.695398563674811634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253536860.13445.5952.8620001.371.37FF28.134578.134260471.2737680031200.67261310067971634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253536859.7245.12252.4210001.371.37FF27.72576.72260471.2737680031200.65886050047081634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253536857.07440.98249.028000.021.371.39FF25.074572.074260471.2737680031200.566655239873411634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253536856.06641.01848.542000.021.231.25FF24.066569.066260471.2737680031200.530238519154031634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-14 04:00:03FORECAST20253536854.84239.03846.94000.021.311.33FF22.842567.842260471.2737680031200.485705229433771624415225DRYL
2025-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253536849.4638.40843.93400.0228346580.0228346581.231.252834658FF17.46560.46260471.2737680031200.299083958570451624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253536850.0938.2144.1500.0228346580.0228346581.241.262834658FF18.09556.09260471.2737680031200.319343080119221624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253536850.07237.18443.62800.0200787510.0200787511.141.160078751FF18.072556.072260471.2737680031200.318756311367811624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253536850.64834.48442.56600.0007874020.0207874021.271.290787402FF18.648551.648260471.2737680031200.337751080437061624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253536851.31434.95243.13300.0007874020.0207874021.261.280787402FF19.314551.314260471.2737680031200.360237277629181624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 04:00:04FORECAST20253536851.56636.544.03300.0003937010.0203937011.221.240393701FF19.566555.566260471.2737680031200.368878379727081624415225DRYL
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253536852.48436.91444.69900.0011811030.0111811031.161.171181103FF20.484553.484260471.2737680031200.400890335850761624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253536851.7135.97843.84400.0007874020.0107874021.121.130787402FF19.71551.71260471.2737680031200.373846392007761624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253536851.87236.57244.222000.011.251.26FF19.872550.872260471.2737680031200.379460515700231624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20253536848.25436.12242.18800.0059055150.0359055151.211.245905515FF16.254550.254260471.2737680031200.262025173922571624415225DRYL
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253536847.22835.79841.51300.0059055150.0359055151.191.225905515FF15.228549.228260471.2737680031200.232459712997531614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253536847.40835.83441.62100.0059055150.0359055151.181.215905515FF15.408549.408260471.2737680031200.23750885039611614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20253536852.66436.12244.39300.0074803190.0474803191.171.217480319FF20.664559.664260471.2737680031200.407253616050641624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253536852.68236.15844.4200.007874020.047874021.181.22787402FF20.682563.682260471.2737680031200.407891322080341624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253536853.07836.5944.83400.0204724520.0604724521.191.250472452FF21.078565.078260471.2737680031200.421979702518861624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253536855.38240.31647.849000.011.121.13FF23.382564.382260471.2737680031200.505363196862741634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253536854.9542.4448.695000.011.121.13FF22.95562.95260471.2737680031200.489635573226261624415225DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253536855.50842.11648.812000.011.121.13FF23.508562.508260471.2737680031200.509949937466141634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253536849.60435.72642.66500.0015748040.0615748041.131.191574804FF17.604556.604260471.2737680031200.30366309118651624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253536849.60435.76242.68300.0015748040.0615748041.131.191574804FF17.604552.604260471.2737680031200.30366309118651624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253536849.7335.52842.62900.0015748040.0615748041.161.221574804FF17.73554.73260471.2737680031200.30769528482711624415225DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20253536851.78238.53445.15800.0023622060.0923622061.431.522362206FF19.782562.782260471.2737680031200.376338336045521624425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253536851.78238.53445.15800.0023622060.0923622061.441.532362206FF19.782559.782260471.2737680031200.376338336045521624425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 04:00:05FORECAST20253536851.29638.04844.67200.0023622060.0923622061.471.562362206FF19.296559.296260471.2737680031200.359622717749351624425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20253536848.30837.07642.69200.311023790.311023791.171.48102379FF16.308552.308260471.2737680031200.263632886364281624425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20253536847.42636.69842.06200.3374017570.3374017571.161.497401757FF15.426555.426260471.2737680031200.238017048525131614425245DRYM
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253536848.63237.99443.31300.3381891590.3481891591.141.488189159FF16.632563.632260471.2737680031200.273383552999971624425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20253536861.66444.2452.9520001.181.18FF29.664576.664260471.2737680031200.721326128014711644415230DRYL
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253536861.66444.2452.9520001.191.19FF29.664571.664260471.2737680031200.721326128014711644415230DRYL
2025-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20253536856.10242.47649.2890001.191.19FF24.102568.102260471.2737680031200.531545332895651634415227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253536842.99838.4840.739000.021.721.74FF10.998547.998260471.2737680031200.131985349364071614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20253536842.96239.03841000.021.711.73FF10.962543.962260471.2737680031200.131283506251631614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253536844.85242.04443.448000.021.691.71FF12.852543.852260471.2737680031200.17163954389251614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253536845.98640.9143.4480002.192.19FF13.986538.986260471.2737680031200.199290482826671614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20253536845.98640.9143.4480002.172.17FF13.986543.986260471.2737680031200.199290482826671614415222.5DRYL
2025-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253536845.01442.09843.5560001.971.97FF13.014538.014260471.2737680031200.175432656217631614415222.5DRYL