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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 16, 2025

[ Monday, September 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 17, 2025 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.18°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.792
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 602

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-17 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253516665.8900449.1799257.53498000.20.91.1FF33.89004601.89004258470.30774239242 00.7918451188011316 43525260DRYH
2025-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253516662.31245.53653.924000.20.91.1FF30.312598.312258470.3077423924200.693366953170941633425250DRYMH
2025-09-16 12:00:01FORECAST20253516661.95245.6853.816000.20.91.1FF29.952597.952258470.3077423924200.682424641323091633425250DRYMH
2025-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253516662.74446.34654.545000.20.91.1FF30.744598.744258470.3077423924200.706273258400541643425255DRYH
2025-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253516662.99646.14854.572000.20.91.1FF30.996598.996258470.3077423924200.713684045618191643425255DRYH
2025-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253516663.82446.74255.283000.20.91.1FF31.824595.824258470.3077423924200.737388955139351643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253516663.6847.33655.508000.20.91.1FF31.68596.68258470.3077423924200.733339501724911643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253516663.69847.87655.787000.20.91.1FF31.698596.698258470.3077423924200.733847402263031643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20253516663.69849.15456.426000.20.91.1FF31.698596.698258470.3077423924200.733847402263031643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253516663.21247.82255.517000.20.91.1FF31.212596.212258470.3077423924200.719964710548331643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 04:00:02FORECAST20253516663.30247.69655.499000.20.91.1FF31.302597.302258470.3077423924200.722561821151731643425255DRYH
2025-09-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253516663.5947.89455.742000.270.91.17FF31.59593.59258470.3077423924200.730792680468531643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253516663.33847.96655.652000.470.91.37FF31.338592.338258470.3077423924200.723597362421281643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253516663.12248.32655.724000.470.91.37FF31.122592.122258470.3077423924200.717355885067291643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253516663.01448.50655.76000.470.91.37FF31.014592.014258470.3077423924200.714209976563481643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253516662.6948.41655.553000.330.91.23FF30.69591.69258470.3077423924200.704673769387111643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253516663.21248.23655.724000.410.91.31FF31.212592.212258470.3077423924200.719964710548331643425255DRYH
2025-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253516663.66248.90256.282000.330.91.23FF31.662588.662258470.3077423924200.732831112288991643425255DRYH
2025-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253516663.17648.30855.742000.340.91.24FF31.176586.176258470.3077423924200.71892258039271643425255DRYH
2025-09-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253516663.24848.39855.823000.240.91.14FF31.248586.248258470.3077423924200.721004966302661643425255DRYH
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253516662.27647.3954.833000.370.91.27FF30.276584.276258470.3077423924200.692280224145051633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 08:00:01FORECAST20253516662.13247.33654.734000.360.91.26FF30.132584.132258470.3077423924200.687916505057391633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253516662.38448.2955.337000.320.91.22FF30.384587.384258470.3077423924200.695535316016681633425250DRYMH
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253516662.9647.78655.373000.280.881.16FF30.96586.96258470.3077423924200.712630808932771643425255DRYH
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253516663.2348.07455.652000.240.881.12FF31.23586.23258470.3077423924200.720485073135151643425255DRYH
2025-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253516662.54647.73255.139000.370.881.25FF30.546585.546258470.3077423924200.700389014308571643425255DRYH
2025-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253516662.07847.71454.896000.330.881.21FF30.078585.078258470.3077423924200.686273249352791633425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253516662.43847.82255.13000.310.881.19FF30.438586.438258470.3077423924200.697157099668881633425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253516662.13247.31854.725000.30.881.18FF30.132586.132258470.3077423924200.687916505057391633425250DRYMH
2025-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253516661.7947.31854.554000.310.861.17FF29.79588.79258470.3077423924200.677447384083331633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253516661.7947.31854.554000.320.861.18FF29.79592.79258470.3077423924200.677447384083331633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253516661.48447.44454.464000.330.861.19FF29.484594.484258470.3077423924200.667959262831341633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253516662.20446.90454.554000.260.861.12FF30.204591.204258470.3077423924200.69010170956971633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253516662.18647.37254.779000.250.871.12FF30.186591.186258470.3077423924200.689556033169191633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253516661.46647.28254.374000.260.861.12FF29.466590.466258470.3077423924200.667397695774341633425250DRYMH
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253516662.29446.7654.527000.250.881.13FF30.294589.294258470.3077423924200.692823800155261633425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253516660.81846.36453.591000.250.881.13FF28.818586.818258470.3077423924200.646939740966641633425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20253516660.63845.93253.285000.280.881.16FF28.638588.638258470.3077423924200.641177666230121633425250DRYMH
2025-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20253516660.42246.59853.51000.550.881.43FF28.422593.422258470.3077423924200.634220655995411633435275DRYVH
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253516660.09845.87852.988000.550.891.44FF28.098588.098258470.3077423924200.623702546949481633435275DRYVH
2025-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253516659.70245.24852.475000.560.911.47FF27.702587.702258470.3077423924200.610722010618831633435275DRYVH
2025-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20253516658.65844.99651.827000.111.061.17FF26.658582.658258470.3077423924200.575939777492591633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253516658.74846.38252.565000.111.051.16FF26.748586.748258470.3077423924200.578965831392341633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST2025351665946.77852.889000.111.031.14FF27592258470.3077423924200.5874134540161633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253516658.69447.352.997000.171.011.18FF26.694593.694258470.3077423924200.577150746807791633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253516658.144.22251.161000.171.021.19FF26.1589.1258470.3077423924200.557084964623371633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253516658.9144.36651.638000.181.011.19FF26.91591.91258470.3077423924200.584400875886431633425250DRYMH
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253516659.07245.21252.14200.0173228440.5673228441.171.737322844FF27.072585.072258470.3077423924200.589819824192661633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253516659.30645.33852.32200.0173228440.5673228441.161.727322844FF27.306581.306258470.3077423924200.597616756464741633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253516659.10844.79851.95300.0173228440.5673228441.141.707322844FF27.108578.108258470.3077423924200.59102174844121633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253516656.55242.00849.28000.521.672.19FF24.552569.552258470.3077423924200.504229914879351633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20253516656.55242.00849.28000.561.612.17FF24.552574.552258470.3077423924200.504229914879351633435275DRYVH
2025-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253516655.97641.91848.947000.41.571.97FF23.976573.976258470.3077423924200.484493927774721623425245DRYM
2025-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20253516656.58840.51448.551000.672.453.12FF24.588563.588258470.3077423924200.505463571627161633435275DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253516656.04840.94648.497000.672.433.1FF24.048563.048258470.3077423924200.486959841024371623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253516656.44442.36849.40600.0464567180.5964567182.923.516456718TF24.444570.444258470.3077423924200.50052874911231633435275DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253516658.51443.12450.819000.521.972.49FF26.514563.514258470.3077423924200.571088838580891633435275DRYVH
2025-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253516658.51443.12450.819000.521.942.46FF26.514559.514258470.3077423924200.571088838580891633435275DRYVH
2025-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253516655.09442.72848.911000.562.052.61FF23.094554.094258470.3077423924200.454363180104921623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253516643.5240.7342.12500.0011811030.1311811031.551.681181103FF11.52541.52258470.3077423924200.133680594337441613425240DRYM
2025-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253516643.93441.1842.55700.0003937010.1403937011.591.730393701FF11.934540.934258470.3077423924200.141510072364751613425240DRYM
2025-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253516644.70840.76642.73700.0007874020.1307874021.571.700787402FF12.708535.708258470.3077423924200.156964413114211613425240DRYM
2025-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20253516645.28443.93444.609000.491.692.18FF13.284542.284258470.3077423924200.169158316442551613425240DRYM
2025-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253516645.28443.93444.609000.491.62.09FF13.284541.284258470.3077423924200.169158316442551613425240DRYM
2025-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20253516651.90850.32451.116000.491.962.45FF19.908546.908258470.3077423924200.348883191953211623425245DRYM