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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 13, 2025

[ Friday, September 12, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 14, 2025 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.86°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.743
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 633

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 255
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-14 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253486365.1099250.6199257.86492000.040.920.96FF33.10992633.10992255468.84486811521 00.7430770421626116 43515230DRYL
2025-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253486359.1844.6951.935000.040.920.96FF27.18627.18255468.8448681152100.530514593207051633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20253486358.56844.65451.611000.040.920.96FF26.568626.568255468.8448681152100.506817046395021633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 08:00:01FORECAST20253486359.46844.88852.178000.040.920.96FF27.468627.468255468.8448681152100.541634206099431633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253486360.09845.64452.871000.040.920.96FF28.098628.098255468.8448681152100.565833292338071633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253486361.64644.97853.312000.020.920.94FF29.646626.646255468.8448681152100.624079472215441633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20253486361.91646.88654.401000.020.920.94FF29.916626.916255468.8448681152100.633994585719411633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 16:00:01FORECAST20253486361.62845.82453.726000.020.920.94FF29.628626.628255468.8448681152100.623415460489531633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253486361.53846.77854.158000.020.920.94FF29.538626.538255468.8448681152100.62008996011281633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253486361.68247.44454.563000.020.920.94FF29.682627.682255468.8448681152100.625406392675651633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20253486361.30447.08454.194000.020.920.94FF29.304628.304255468.8448681152100.611402582189951633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253486362.2447.3954.8150000.920.92FF30.24632.24255468.8448681152100.645775179373021633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253486362.38447.46254.9230000.920.92FF30.384635.384255468.8448681152100.65096735262621633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253486362.38447.9355.1570000.920.92FF30.384636.384255468.8448681152100.65096735262621633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253486361.80847.2154.5090000.920.92FF29.808634.808255468.8448681152100.630038841990221633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253486361.5247.44454.482000.010.920.93FF29.52634.52255468.8448681152100.61942378455091633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253486361.01647.01254.0140000.920.92FF29.016635.016255468.8448681152100.600633900645111633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253486360.96246.79653.879000.010.930.94FF28.962631.962255468.8448681152100.598605950335091633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253486361.23246.02253.627000.010.930.94FF29.232632.232255468.8448681152100.608718070957811633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20253486361.44846.1353.789000.010.930.94FF29.448632.448255468.8448681152100.616755558893181633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253486361.53845.64453.591000.010.930.94FF29.538632.538255468.8448681152100.62008996011281633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253486361.03447.08454.059000.020.930.95FF29.034633.034255468.8448681152100.601309284173351633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253486361.37646.83254.104000.020.950.97FF29.376633.376255468.8448681152100.614081784933861633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253486360.3547.08453.717000.031.091.12FF28.35629.35255468.8448681152100.575449431290961633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253486359.88245.80652.844000.041.071.11FF27.882626.882255468.8448681152100.557559543452231633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253486362.7847.53455.157000.031.061.09FF30.78631.78255468.8448681152100.66509840763331633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253486361.03446.56253.798000.031.041.07FF29.034631.034255468.8448681152100.601309284173351633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253486359.86445.82452.844000.011.071.08FF27.864628.864255468.8448681152100.556868878443761633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253486359.97246.29253.132000.011.061.07FF27.972629.972255468.8448681152100.561010203881691633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253486359.88246.68853.285000.031.21.23FF27.882622.882255468.8448681152100.557559543452231633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253486359.75646.27453.015000.021.21.22FF27.756623.756255468.8448681152100.552721331771351633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253486359.55847.06653.312000.021.181.2FF27.558620.558255468.8448681152100.545102826675611633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253486358.47846.25652.36700.228346580.278346581.451.72834658FF26.478615.478255468.8448681152100.503328070417061633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20253486357.75845.80651.78200.2177166530.2477166531.421.667716653FF25.758617.758255468.8448681152100.475429509822721623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253486357.88445.03251.45800.2192914570.2492914571.381.629291457FF25.884615.884255468.8448681152100.480306937103481623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253486357.43444.88851.16100.1846457690.7246457691.792.514645769FF25.434610.434255468.8448681152100.462906196667831623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253486358.98245.71652.34900.1846457690.7246457691.772.494645769FF26.982608.982255468.8448681152100.522855499390661633535282.5DRYVH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253486358.87445.28452.07900.161417410.651417412.332.98141741FF26.874611.874255468.8448681152100.518674068734981633535282.5DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253486357.18244.6950.93600.0740157880.1540157881.882.034015788FF25.182610.182255468.8448681152100.45319055808551623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253486357.12843.73650.43200.0740157880.1540157881.852.004015788FF25.128610.128255468.8448681152100.451112075023391623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253486355.50843.8849.69400.0744094890.2144094891.92.114409489FF23.508608.508255468.8448681152100.389629075606171623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253486356.73243.53850.13500.1090551770.3990551771.211.609055177FF24.732599.732255468.8448681152100.435914415596611623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253486355.2242.63848.92900.1125984860.3825984861.271.652598486FF23.22598.22255468.8448681152100.378936816590631623425245DRYM
2025-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253486354.37442.65648.51500.1350394430.3750394431.251.625039443FF22.374596.374255468.8448681152100.348086870505771623425245DRYM
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253486357.0246.99452.00700.3456694780.4156694781.331.745669478FF25.02602.02255468.8448681152100.446959183656341623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253486358.2845.78852.03400.3456694780.4156694781.241.655669478FF26.28601.28255468.8448681152100.4956518029531623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253486358.44245.78852.11500.3468505810.4168505811.62.016850581FF26.442594.442255468.8448681152100.501932393797571633425250DRYMH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253486352.77244.13248.45200.1165354960.3965354961.531.926535496FF20.772574.772255468.8448681152100.292470408455411623425245DRYM
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253486353.94244.9649.45100.1035433630.3535433631.481.833543363FF21.942584.942255468.8448681152100.332698454881821623425245DRYM
2025-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253486354.10445.08649.59500.1059055690.3559055691.892.245905569FF22.104588.104255468.8448681152100.338437868319171623425245DRYM
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253486356.06647.19251.62900.4917325490.5417325491.441.981732549FF24.066596.066255468.8448681152100.410577905988111623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253486354.33845.1449.73900.4917325490.5417325491.431.971732549FF22.338588.338255468.8448681152100.346794475595751623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253486349.3741.66645.51800.4952758580.5452758581.311.855275858FF17.37573.37255468.8448681152100.190278456520221613435260DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20253486352.53843.93448.23600.6472444441.1572444441.362.517244444FF20.538565.538255468.8448681152100.284703730765231623445290DRYVH
2025-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20253486352.53843.93448.23600.6472444441.1572444441.342.497244444FF20.538571.538255468.8448681152100.284703730765231623445290DRYVH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253486352.12443.50247.81300.6645672881.1745672881.562.734567288FF20.124579.124255468.8448681152100.271208646256731623445290DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253486355.92244.18650.05400.0220472560.2120472561.041.252047256FF23.922594.922255468.8448681152100.405144677350511623425245DRYM
2025-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20253486355.92244.18650.05400.0220472560.2120472561.121.332047256FF23.922595.922255468.8448681152100.405144677350511623425245DRYM
2025-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20253486356.58844.13250.3600.0311023790.2211023791.111.331102379FF24.588595.588255468.8448681152100.430410164153261623425245DRYM
2025-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20253486345.03241.43243.23200.0031496080.1531496082.052.203149608FF13.032562.032255468.8448681152100.0969919514555321613425240DRYM
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253486344.72641.46843.09700.0031496080.1531496082.072.223149608FF12.726561.726255468.8448681152100.0919774202775181613425240DRYM
2025-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20253486345.87843.68244.7800.0031496080.1431496082.032.173149608FF13.878559.878255468.8448681152100.111890568484271613425240DRYM
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253486343.30441.0942.197000.051.191.24FF11.304561.304255468.8448681152100.0711638557620141613415220DRYL
2025-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253486343.30441.0942.197000.051.191.24FF11.304560.304255468.8448681152100.0711638557620141613415220DRYL
2025-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253486348.23645.64446.94000.051.221.27FF16.236569.236255468.8448681152100.161787271035651613415220DRYL