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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 12, 2025

[ Thursday, September 11, 2025 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 13, 2025 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/13/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 61.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.46°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.589
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 647

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.96 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-13 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253476261.2199444.4599652.8399500.0200000000000950.0400000000000960.920.9600000000001FF29.21994647.21994254468.35352565462 00.5889690410502816 33515227.5DRYL
2025-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253476257.97443.9750.972000.020.920.94FF25.974643.974254468.3535256546200.467814430960011623515225DRYL
2025-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253476258.22642.9850.603000.020.920.94FF26.226644.226254468.3535256546200.477258644768961623515225DRYL
2025-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253476259.34242.45850.9000.020.920.94FF27.342645.342254468.3535256546200.519163684589391633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 04:00:03FORECAST20253476259.61241.88250.747000.020.920.94FF27.612645.612254468.3535256546200.529287786586541633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253476261.03441.41451.22400.0043307110.0043307110.920.924330711FF29.034649.034254468.3535256546200.582145176227281633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253476261.17843.30452.24100.0043307110.0043307110.920.924330711FF29.178652.178254468.3535256546200.58743214411931633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253476261.71844.63653.1770000.920.92FF29.718652.718254468.3535256546200.607109975053041633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20253476261.30445.53653.420000.920.92FF29.304652.304254468.3535256546200.59204530096711633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253476260.9846.20253.591000.010.920.93FF28.98651.98254468.3535256546200.580158675439921633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253476260.72845.30253.0150000.920.92FF28.728652.728254468.3535256546200.570862108285111633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253476260.3545.84253.096000.020.920.94FF28.35650.35254468.3535256546200.556844844256981633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253476260.18845.93253.06000.020.920.94FF28.188650.188254468.3535256546200.550814537770411633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20253476260.06246.20253.132000.020.920.94FF28.062650.062254468.3535256546200.546116098413491633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253476260.00845.7752.889000.020.920.94FF28.008650.008254468.3535256546200.544100465124531633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253476260.4446.43653.438000.030.920.95FF28.44651.44254468.3535256546200.560189425882791633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:03FORECAST20253476260.29646.47253.384000.050.920.97FF28.296651.296254468.3535256546200.554836133919791633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253476259.48645.53652.51100.0003937010.0703937011.051.120393701FF27.486648.486254468.3535256546200.524565161145231633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253476259.28844.85252.07000.091.021.11FF27.288646.288254468.3535256546200.517137169934171633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253476259.84645.24852.547000.071.021.09FF27.846647.846254468.3535256546200.538046957899081633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253476259.88245.3252.60100.0035433090.0535433091.021.073543309FF27.882648.882254468.3535256546200.539392993662161633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253476259.34245.12252.23200.0035433090.0435433091.041.083543309FF27.342648.342254468.3535256546200.519163684589391633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253476259.6346.05852.84400.0035433090.0335433091.041.073543309FF27.63648.63254468.3535256546200.529962126825081633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025347625945.15852.07900.0011811030.0911811031.141.231181103FF27642254468.3535256546200.506322889748311633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253476258.94645.87852.41200.0011811030.0811811031.141.221181103FF26.946642.946254468.3535256546200.504294454804661633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253476260.02645.91452.9700.0011811030.0711811031.131.201181103FF28.026640.026254468.3535256546200.544772471606741633515227.5DRYL
2025-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253476259.2746.27452.77200.0062992160.1462992161.351.496299216FF27.27636.27254468.3535256546200.516461564057211633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20253476259.7246.41853.06900.0062992160.1162992161.331.446299216FF27.72638.72254468.3535256546200.533332500749321633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253476259.10845.87852.49300.0062992160.1062992161.31.406299216FF27.108637.108254468.3535256546200.510379216778691633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253476257.14645.1451.14300.1759843470.7259843471.62.325984347FF25.146632.146254468.3535256546200.43693890489241623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253476256.91245.03250.97200.1759843470.6959843471.612.305984347FF24.912628.912254468.3535256546200.428274142918931623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253476257.43445.06851.25100.1629922140.6429922142.182.822992214FF25.434632.434254468.3535256546200.447644464029861623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253476256.69644.9650.82800.0519685320.2419685321.721.961968532FF24.696631.696254468.3535256546200.4203063766791623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253476255.14845.30250.22500.0519685320.1619685321.771.931968532FF23.148632.148254468.3535256546200.364340623662081623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253476254.0545.10449.57700.0854331170.2654331171.772.035433117FF22.05632.05254468.3535256546200.326255160897731623525250DRYMH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253476253.34845.75249.5500.1362205460.4662205461.031.496220546FF21.348622.348254468.3535256546200.302792521710511623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253476252.73646.25649.49600.1248032170.4548032171.091.544803217FF20.736621.736254468.3535256546200.282977078721931623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253476252.05246.41849.23500.1480315760.3980315761.091.488031576FF20.052621.052254468.3535256546200.261594394535041623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253476256.37246.90451.63800.0673228710.1273228711.271.397322871FF24.372624.372254468.3535256546200.408416683483921623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253476255.72445.48250.60300.0673228710.1273228711.181.307322871FF23.724621.724254468.3535256546200.384898711389321623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253476255.02244.54649.78400.0673228710.1273228711.541.667322871FF23.022615.022254468.3535256546200.35989276441671623525250DRYMH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253476255.34644.34849.84700.1212599080.3512599081.461.811259908FF23.346601.346254468.3535256546200.37136694921511623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253476257.97444.70851.34100.1082677750.3182677751.411.728267775FF25.974609.974254468.3535256546200.467814430960011623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253476258.20845.69851.95300.1094488780.3594488781.782.139448878FF26.208613.208254468.3535256546200.476583571089611623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253476259.52246.25652.88900.0535433360.2835433361.211.493543336FF27.522618.522254468.3535256546200.52591486408491633525255DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253476260.15244.67252.41200.0535433360.2835433361.21.483543336FF28.152613.152254468.3535256546200.549472824011831633525255DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253476255.65243.9749.81100.0539370370.2939370371.071.363937037FF23.652602.652254468.3535256546200.382309832624091623525250DRYMH
2025-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20253476253.38441.30647.34500.4586616650.5886616651.281.868661665FF21.384592.384254468.3535256546200.303977232727861623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20253476253.38441.10847.24600.4586616650.5886616651.261.848661665FF21.384598.384254468.3535256546200.303977232727861623435267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253476253.49242.33247.91200.4744097050.5444097051.532.074409705FF21.492606.492254468.3535256546200.307543687273421623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253476255.79643.5249.65800.043307110.373307110.861.23330711FF23.796617.796254468.3535256546200.387492730200431623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20253476255.79643.5249.65800.043307110.363307110.951.31330711FF23.796618.796254468.3535256546200.387492730200431623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20253476255.99444.3350.16200.043307110.353307110.951.30330711FF23.994617.994254468.3535256546200.394651891641661623525250DRYMH
2025-09-04 00:00:03FORECAST20253476253.25840.85647.05700.0598425520.2598425521.942.199842552FF21.258596.258254468.3535256546200.299839823306271623425245DRYM
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253476252.77240.67646.72400.0598425520.2598425521.962.219842552FF20.772595.772254468.3535256546200.28412529101481623425245DRYM
2025-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20253476251.81841.10846.46300.0602362530.2502362531.922.170236253FF19.818592.818254468.3535256546200.254474185659821623425245DRYM
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253476250.34241.32445.83300.0133858340.0733858341.171.243385834FF18.342597.342254468.3535256546200.212000392036591613415220DRYL
2025-09-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253476250.34241.32445.83300.0133858340.0733858341.171.243385834FF18.342596.342254468.3535256546200.212000392036591613415220DRYL
2025-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253476253.85241.68447.76800.0133858340.0833858341.191.273385834FF21.852599.852254468.3535256546200.319562240462631623515225DRYL
2025-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST2025347624139.00240.00100.0161417410.1461417410.510.656141741FF9582254468.3535256546200.0464098571355311613425240DRYM
2025-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253476242.92640.58641.75600.0153543390.1353543390.470.605354339FF10.926581.926254468.3535256546200.0669680595153981613425240DRYM
2025-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253476243.44841.66642.55700.0110236280.1110236280.520.631023628FF11.448584.448254468.3535256546200.0736023810916881613425240DRYM
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253476246.8543.8845.365000.60.641.24FF14.85593.85254468.3535256546200.129542933740631613435260DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253476246.8543.8845.365000.60.641.24FF14.85595.85254468.3535256546200.129542933740631613435260DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20253476244.643.5244.06000.60.481.08FF12.6594.6254468.3535256546200.0900001313295081613435260DRYH