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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 10, 2025

[ Tuesday, September 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 11, 2025 ]

DAY 345 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.534
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 690

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.92 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 252
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-09-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253456060.2799846.9200253.60000.920.92FF28.27998690.27998252467.36522165142 00.5343656408675916 33515227.5DRYL
2025-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253456058.11844.07851.09800.0062992160.0062992160.920.926299216FF26.118688.118252467.3652216514200.447785808470991623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253456058.17243.89851.03500.0066929170.0066929170.920.926692917FF26.172688.172252467.3652216514200.449935298643171623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253456058.7343.44851.08900.0145669370.0145669370.920.934566937FF26.73688.73252467.3652216514200.472221325837251623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 04:00:03FORECAST20253456059.25243.48451.36800.0295275750.0295275750.920.949527575FF27.252689.252252467.3652216514200.493149972049821623515225DRYL
2025-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253456059.50444.04251.77300.0417323060.1717323060.921.091732306FF27.504686.504252467.3652216514200.503263775852761633525255DRYH
2025-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253456059.25243.77251.51200.0543307380.1543307380.921.074330738FF27.252686.252252467.3652216514200.493149972049821623525250DRYMH
2025-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253456060.04444.22252.13300.0405512030.1405512030.921.060551203FF28.044687.044252467.3652216514200.524920818763781633525255DRYH
2025-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253456059.86444.88852.37600.0248031630.1248031630.921.044803163FF27.864686.864252467.3652216514200.517706818650251633525255DRYH
2025-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253456059.9944.79852.39400.0287401730.1487401730.921.068740173FF27.99687.99252467.3652216514200.522757368445081633525255DRYH
2025-09-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253456060.33245.7753.05100.0232283590.1432283590.921.063228359FF28.332688.332252467.3652216514200.536445266003661633525255DRYH
2025-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253456059.5446.43652.98800.0562992430.2762992430.921.196299243FF27.54681.54252467.3652216514200.504708585341221633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253456059.945.98652.94300.0625984590.2825984590.921.202598459FF27.9683.9252467.3652216514200.519150158430831633525255DRYH
2025-09-08 16:00:01FORECAST20253456058.29845.46451.88100.0543307380.2643307380.921.184330738FF26.298681.298252467.3652216514200.454956383255371623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253456057.23644.74450.9900.0956693430.5256693430.921.445669343FF25.236679.236252467.3652216514200.412938977179351623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253456056.73244.90650.81900.0901575290.5001575290.921.420157529FF24.732679.732252467.3652216514200.39331226885351623535275DRYVH
2025-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253456057.30843.73650.52200.07874020.45874020.921.3787402FF25.308678.308252467.3652216514200.415761884303241623525250DRYMH
2025-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253456055.7643.44849.60400.1893701810.8193701810.971.789370181FF23.76676.76252467.3652216514200.356255606441971623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253456054.33842.9848.65900.1641733170.8041733170.971.774173317FF22.338675.338252467.3652216514200.304482586573291623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 16:00:01FORECAST20253456054.66243.01648.83900.1543307921.3643307920.972.334330792FF22.662675.662252467.3652216514200.3159859150429116235452100DRYVH
2025-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253456055.11243.23249.17200.1610237090.9110237090.971.881023709FF23.112676.112252467.3652216514200.332260693691221623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 08:00:01FORECAST20253456055.97643.21449.59500.0838583130.85385831311.853858313FF23.976677.976252467.3652216514200.364387871665171623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253456056.08443.46649.77500.1334646390.9234646390.981.903464639FF24.084678.084252467.3652216514200.368477271928261623535275DRYVH
2025-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253456055.81443.1649.48700.1830709650.6830709650.531.213070965FF23.814669.814252467.3652216514200.358282724560211623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 20:00:01FORECAST20253456055.4943.82649.65800.1826772640.8226772640.451.272677264FF23.49670.49252467.3652216514200.346181818680961623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253456055.68844.8750.27900.1570866990.7670866990.481.247086699FF23.688668.688252467.3652216514200.353559094281831623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253456054.48243.32248.90200.0633858610.8233858610.511.333385861FF22.482667.482252467.3652216514200.309572249083391623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253456054.15842.83648.49700.0633858610.8933858610.351.243385861FF22.158668.158252467.3652216514200.298173399935751623535275DRYVH
2025-09-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253456051.81842.11646.96700.0633858611.1233858610.481.603385861FF19.818662.818252467.3652216514200.222101490073081613545290DRYVH
2025-09-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253456049.464145.2300.074803191.024803190.511.53480319FF17.46652.46252467.3652216514200.158060777259631613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253456050.2740.83845.55400.0700787781.0600787780.421.480078778FF18.27657.27252467.3652216514200.17854708682521613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20253456050.19841.05445.62600.1090551771.3090551770.581.889055177FF18.198659.198252467.3652216514200.176661277529381613545290DRYVH
2025-09-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253456051.65641.43246.54400.2295276830.8795276830.561.439527683FF19.656660.656252467.3652216514200.217278338223051613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 08:00:01FORECAST20253456051.0840.51445.79700.2295276830.8895276830.541.429527683FF19.08657.08252467.3652216514200.200626068405211613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20253456049.92840.53245.2300.2444883210.7544883210.561.314488321FF17.928652.928252467.3652216514200.169701931406331613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253456049.29840.60444.95100.0783464990.6083464990.751.358346499FF17.298648.298252467.3652216514200.154155951055551613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20253456050.10841.03645.57200.0795276020.6095276020.731.339527602FF18.108653.108252467.3652216514200.174321754935071613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253456051.92642.40447.16500.0299212760.8899212760.671.559921276FF19.926658.926252467.3652216514200.225350528176211613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253456055.6742.56649.11800.1763780480.5663780480.471.036378048FF23.67665.67252467.3652216514200.352886106077521623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253456055.88642.47649.18100.1748032440.5848032440.541.124803244FF23.886665.886252467.3652216514200.360991762323341623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253456054.82442.20648.51500.1566929980.5666929980.541.106692998FF22.824663.824252467.3652216514200.321805991650471623535275DRYVH
2025-09-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253456052.30442.15247.22800.106299271.576299270.472.04629927FF20.304650.304252467.3652216514200.2369312563686816135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253456051.72842.20646.96700.106299271.576299270.492.06629927FF19.728649.728252467.3652216514200.2194144674399116135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253456051.38642.3546.86800.1059055691.5759055690.452.025905569FF19.386650.386252467.3652216514200.2093754104706116135552112.5DRYVH
2025-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253456050.01842.81846.41800.0161417410.8761417410.311.186141741FF18.018654.018252467.3652216514200.172001965657111613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 08:00:01FORECAST20253456049.47840.80245.1400.0161417410.8761417410.311.186141741FF17.478653.478252467.3652216514200.15849860968431613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253456049.15440.74844.95100.0295275750.9095275750.311.219527575FF17.154652.154252467.3652216514200.150738874489931613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253456049.94640.60445.27500.0665354690.2265354690.350.576535469FF17.946652.946252467.3652216514200.170160356926231613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253456051.42240.89246.15700.0641732630.2041732630.330.534173263FF19.422648.422252467.3652216514200.210419274605751613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253456051.67441.0946.38200.0417323060.3217323060.240.561732306FF19.674648.674252467.3652216514200.217811243658211613525245DRYM
2025-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253456048.79441.95445.37400.4917325490.8917325490.241.131732549FF16.794650.794252467.3652216514200.142417753083011613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253456048.79441.95445.37400.4917325490.8917325490.241.131732549FF16.794652.794252467.3652216514200.142417753083011613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253456047.85841.84644.85200.5031498780.7931498780.190.983149878FF15.858655.858252467.3652216514200.122254636072541613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253456051.2639.2945.27500.0519685321.1519685320.321.471968532FF19.26654.26252467.3652216514200.205745916218041613545290DRYVH
2025-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20253456051.42239.34445.38300.0515748311.1515748310.321.471574831FF19.422658.422252467.3652216514200.210419274605751613545290DRYVH
2025-09-01 16:00:05FORECAST20253456051.49439.09245.29300.0464567180.8664567180.321.186456718FF19.494654.494252467.3652216514200.212516126474161613535267.5DRYH
2025-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253456052.95240.94646.94900.0342519870.3942519870.220.614251987FF20.952658.952252467.3652216514200.257521858253891623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253456052.77239.66846.2200.0342519870.3942519870.230.624251987FF20.772655.772252467.3652216514200.25171068318511623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253456053.07841.3647.21900.0114173290.4214173290.270.691417329FF21.078654.078252467.3652216514200.26163069808051623525250DRYMH
2025-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253456049.04641.16245.1040000.170.17FF17.046645.046252467.3652216514200.148209324588491613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253456049.04641.16245.1040000.170.17FF17.046650.046252467.3652216514200.148209324588491613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20253456049.4645.48247.47100.007874020.007874020.170.17787402FF17.46653.46252467.3652216514200.158060777259631613515222.5DRYL
2025-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253456045.62642.94444.285000.10.190.29FF13.626642.626252467.3652216514200.082458463049821613525245DRYM
2025-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253456045.62642.94444.285000.10.190.29FF13.626641.626252467.3652216514200.082458463049821613525245DRYM
2025-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253456042.840.60441.702000.010.220.23FF10.8642.8252467.3652216514200.0470788187392781613515222.5DRYL