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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 6, 2025

[ Tuesday, August 5, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 7, 2025 ]

DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 201

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.64 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 217
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-07 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253102550.7099246.3600448.5349801.281.320.321.64FF18.70992200.70992217448.79664964921 00.08868060785218916 12245250DRYMH
2025-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253102549.35243.8846.61600.3681104350.4081104350.320.728110435FF17.352199.352217448.7966496492100.0678819506209091612225225DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:01FORECAST20253102549.17243.66446.41800.606299540.646299540.320.96629954FF17.172199.172217448.7966496492100.0654333004742331612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253102549.5543.39446.47201.0877958631.1277958630.321.447795863FF17.55199.55217448.7966496492100.0706562680578551612245250DRYMH
2025-08-06 04:00:02FORECAST20253102549.80243.19646.49901.3200794531.3600794530.321.680079453FF17.802199.802217448.7966496492100.0743118107517031612245250DRYMH
2025-08-06 00:00:01FORECAST20253102549.24443.21446.22900.9622052441.0022052440.321.322205244FF17.244196.244217448.7966496492100.0664044386854281612145240DRYM
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253102548.5643.44846.00400.9500005130.9900005130.321.310000513FF16.56195.56217448.7966496492100.0576161858737261612145240DRYM
2025-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253102548.6543.32245.98601.0326777231.0726777230.321.392677723FF16.65195.65217448.7966496492100.0587175453954131612145240DRYM
2025-08-05 12:00:01FORECAST20253102548.50643.44845.97700.8555122730.8955122730.321.215512273FF16.506195.506217448.7966496492100.0569631831976421612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253102549.143.7946.44500.7775594750.8175594750.321.137559475FF17.1196.1217448.7966496492100.0644731768044341612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:02FORECAST20253102549.11843.48446.30100.7602366310.8002366310.321.120236631FF17.118197.118217448.7966496492100.0647121789381361612135230DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:01FORECAST20253102549.4643.91646.68800.8177169770.8177169770.321.137716977FF17.46202.46217448.7966496492100.0693846352358991612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253102549.38844.09646.74200.7555122190.7555122190.321.075512219FF17.388203.388217448.7966496492100.0683800370824381612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 16:00:01FORECAST20253102549.44243.9746.70600.5885829950.5885829950.320.908582995FF17.442204.442217448.7966496492100.0691324298747741612235237.5DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:01FORECAST20253102550.28844.13247.2100.3724411460.3724411460.320.692441146FF18.288204.288217448.7966496492100.081765701917761612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253102550.77443.77247.27300.3204726140.3204726140.320.640472614FF18.774204.774217448.7966496492100.0897677117275531612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:02FORECAST20253102552.4343.35847.89400.1555118950.1555118950.320.475511895FF20.43207.43217448.7966496492100.12137641186421612225225DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253102551.81843.37647.59700.2622048660.2622048660.320.582204866FF19.818206.818217448.7966496492100.108891727901571612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:01FORECAST20253102552.89843.30448.10100.1893701810.1893701810.320.509370181FF20.898208.898217448.7966496492100.131577372112041612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253102553.3343.21448.27200.1440945660.1440945660.320.464094566FF21.33208.33217448.7966496492100.141503900326081612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253102552.55643.46648.01100.0779527980.0779527980.320.397952798FF20.556208.556217448.7966496492100.124066635614321612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253102552.50244.11448.30800.1145669910.1245669910.320.444566991FF20.502211.502217448.7966496492100.122908632374151612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:04FORECAST20253102552.1644.38448.27200.1374016490.1474016490.320.467401649FF20.16213.16217448.7966496492100.115750012531971612225225DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253102552.89844.25848.57800.1814961610.1914961610.320.511496161FF20.898205.898217448.7966496492100.131577372112041612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253102553.13243.84448.48800.1728347390.1928347390.320.512834739FF21.132206.132217448.7966496492100.136893119111921612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 16:00:01FORECAST20253102551.2643.9747.61500.1744095430.1844095430.320.504409543FF19.26208.26217448.7966496492100.0983357023534721612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253102553.13244.72648.92900.2149607460.2249607460.320.544960746FF21.132209.132217448.7966496492100.136893119111921612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253102553.22244.6948.95600.2149607460.2149607460.320.534960746FF21.222209.222217448.7966496492100.138976080493241612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253102554.10445.1449.62200.1885827790.1885827790.320.508582779FF22.104211.104217448.7966496492100.160525878608541612225225DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253102556.46244.61850.5400.062992160.072992160.320.39299216FF24.462212.462217448.7966496492100.228212640434851612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253102555.68844.22249.95500.062992160.072992160.320.39299216FF23.688210.688217448.7966496492100.204404467881521612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20253102554.3243.749.0100.074803190.094803190.320.41480319FF22.32204.32217448.7966496492100.166118728574491612225225DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253102554.80642.0848.44300.0141732360.0141732360.320.334173236FF22.806204.806217448.7966496492100.179155772151751612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253102555.23842.74648.99200.0133858340.0233858340.320.343385834FF23.238205.238217448.7966496492100.191268286414631612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:04FORECAST20253102554.64443.48449.06400.0570866450.0670866450.320.387086645FF22.644207.644217448.7966496492100.174740504584141612215212.5DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253102553.07844.5148.79400.1354331440.1754331440.330.505433144FF21.078202.078217448.7966496492100.135653605871371612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253102552.1644.20448.18200.1354331440.1754331440.380.555433144FF20.16202.16217448.7966496492100.115750012531971612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253102552.01644.29448.15500.2200788590.2500788590.380.630078859FF20.016203.016217448.7966496492100.112825932740091612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:02FORECAST20253102555.99443.39449.69400.0114173290.0714173290.370.441417329FF23.994211.994217448.7966496492100.213635561957491612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253102557.1143.750.40500.0114173290.0714173290.460.531417329FF25.11212.11217448.7966496492100.249287612935021622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253102557.14643.50250.32400.0086614220.0686614220.440.508661422FF25.146212.146217448.7966496492100.250487993184681622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:02FORECAST20253102556.8443.75450.29700.0318897810.0318897810.410.441889781FF24.84208.84217448.7966496492100.240382948535831612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:03FORECAST20253102558.49643.82651.16100.035433090.035433090.420.45543309FF26.496215.496217448.7966496492100.2976138748241622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:02FORECAST20253102558.56844.47451.52100.0043307110.0043307110.330.334330711FF26.568215.568217448.7966496492100.300236709009071622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253102560.24244.90652.574000.010.440.45FF28.242213.242217448.7966496492100.363900494096231622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20253102560.49443.57452.034000.010.490.5FF28.494208.494217448.7966496492100.373874753455971622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:04FORECAST20253102558.20841.14449.676000.030.450.48FF26.208204.208217448.7966496492100.287228564230571622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253102558.38840.51449.4510000.560.56FF26.388269.388217448.7966496492100.293699339181121622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 20:00:03FORECAST20253102558.38842.56650.4770000.580.58FF26.388266.388217448.7966496492100.293699339181121622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 16:00:03FORECAST20253102561.64646.27453.960000.510.51FF29.646276.646217448.7966496492100.420457821311271622215215DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:03FORECAST20253102568.16250.28859.225000.010.650.66FF36.162279.162217448.7966496492100.685466217583281632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:03FORECAST20253102568.16250.28859.225000.010.690.7FF36.162287.162217448.7966496492100.685466217583281632215135DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:04FORECAST20253102566.7449.92858.33400.0129921330.0229921330.620.642992133FF34.74285.74217448.7966496492100.630741501880271632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:04FORECAST20253102567.8249.83858.829000.010.510.52FF35.82350.82217448.7966496492100.672616739444691632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253102568.10849.89259000.010.430.44FF36.108349.108217448.7966496492100.683451698035021632215135DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:03FORECAST20253102567.53249.02858.28000.010.440.45FF35.532346.532217448.7966496492100.661634481456281632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:03FORECAST20253102574.06652.26863.16700.0185039470.0185039470.470.488503947FF42.066369.066217448.7966496492100.864948506228911652215145DRYM
2025-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253102574.06652.26863.16700.0185039470.0185039470.50.518503947FF42.066371.066217448.7966496492100.864948506228911652215145DRYM
2025-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253102563.80651.31457.5600.0185039470.0685039470.630.698503947FF31.806353.806217448.7966496492100.51034640090331632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253102554.06846.25650.1620000.760.76FF22.068405.068217448.7966496492100.159605806119031612315215DRYL
2025-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20253102552.2546.25649.2530000.750.75FF20.25401.25217448.7966496492100.11760458663391612315215DRYL
2025-07-27 16:00:03FORECAST20253102552.32246.81449.5680000.720.72FF20.322398.322217448.7966496492100.119103269498391612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:03FORECAST20253102548.66844.40246.535000.140.580.72FF16.668397.668217448.7966496492100.0589397808357921612225225DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:03FORECAST20253102548.66844.40246.535000.140.550.69FF16.668398.668217448.7966496492100.0589397808357921612225225DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:05FORECAST20253102551.36850.12650.747000.040.520.56FF19.368403.368217448.7966496492100.100318218866271612315215DRYL