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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 30, 2025

[ Friday, August 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 31, 2025 ]

DAY 334 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/31/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.736
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 629

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 241
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-31 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253344966.7700653.5160.14003000.012.842.85FF34.77006628.77006241461.79322445274 00.736478184556216 43515230DRYL
2025-08-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253344962.63648.27255.454000.012.842.85FF30.636624.636241461.7932244527400.590075715736011633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253344963.08648.12855.607000.012.842.85FF31.086625.086241461.7932244527400.607111944811661633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253344964.38247.51655.949000.012.842.85FF32.382626.382241461.7932244527400.654940328072791633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 04:00:02FORECAST20253344964.07647.42655.751000.012.842.85FF32.076626.076241461.7932244527400.643836222349941633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253344965.31847.3956.354000.012.842.85FF33.318620.318241461.7932244527400.688053554239531633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-29 20:00:01FORECAST20253344965.6648.95657.308000.012.842.85FF33.66620.66241461.7932244527400.699800906727011643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253344965.85848.5657.209000.012.842.85FF33.858620.858241461.7932244527400.706509337702691643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20253344965.80450.958.352000.012.842.85FF33.804620.804241461.7932244527400.70468665392271643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253344965.80450.68458.24400.0007874020.0107874022.842.850787402FF33.804621.804241461.7932244527400.70468665392271643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 04:00:02FORECAST20253344966.09250.59458.343000.012.842.85FF34.092621.092241461.7932244527400.714346832151291643515230DRYL
2025-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253344966.0251.29658.65800.0015748040.0015748042.842.841574804FF34.02614.02241461.7932244527400.711945912525281643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253344966.3851.31458.84700.0011811030.0111811032.842.851181103FF34.38614.38241461.7932244527400.723854184260161643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253344966.66852.10659.38700.0011811030.0111811032.842.851181103FF34.668614.668241461.7932244527400.733203710371681643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253344967.35252.12459.73800.0122047310.0222047312.842.862204731FF35.352616.352241461.7932244527400.754749693825791643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253344966.48852.19659.34200.0102362260.0402362262.842.880236226FF34.488614.488241461.7932244527400.727379009804211643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253344966.252.12459.16200.0153543390.0553543392.842.895354339FF34.2616.2241461.7932244527400.717930274228731643515230DRYL
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253344964.4952.77258.63100.0657480670.0957480672.852.945748067FF32.49608.49241461.7932244527400.658828391001791633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253344964.4952.95258.72100.0838583130.1038583132.842.943858313FF32.49612.49241461.7932244527400.658828391001791633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253344963.87852.59258.23500.0881890240.1081890242.842.948189024FF31.878609.878241461.7932244527400.636584973488341633525255DRYH
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253344963.82450.2757.04700.03937010.04937012.842.8893701FF31.824611.824241461.7932244527400.63459871115211633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253344964.3151.0857.69500.0342519870.0442519872.852.894251987FF32.31612.31241461.7932244527400.65233914290581633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253344962.85249.65856.25500.0425197080.0825197082.852.932519708FF30.852605.852241461.7932244527400.598276470952331633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253344962.16848.27255.2200.1633859150.1833859152.812.993385915FF30.168601.168241461.7932244527400.572176302013231633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253344961.12447.64254.38300.1633859150.2233859152.893.113385915FF29.124599.124241461.7932244527400.531761704810641633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253344961.59247.96654.77900.1641733170.2041733172.93.104173317FF29.592603.592241461.7932244527400.549944513694081633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253344962.90648.79455.8500.0559055420.1859055422.93.085905542FF30.906602.906241461.7932244527400.600320068413781633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253344962.8748.41655.64300.0559055420.1959055422.93.095905542FF30.87602.87241461.7932244527400.598957971678481633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253344961.53847.8454.68900.0744094890.2144094892.963.174409489FF29.538599.538241461.7932244527400.547851106831261633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:02FORECAST2025334495947.67853.33900.0232283590.1132283592.893.003228359FF27592241461.7932244527400.448970559178661623425245DRYM
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253344960.42248.75854.5900.0232283590.0932283592.913.003228359FF28.422594.422241461.7932244527400.504374700137781633425250DRYMH
2025-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253344962.74448.4755.60700.0303149770.0603149772.973.030314977FF30.744598.744241461.7932244527400.594181258698041633415225DRYL
2025-08-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253344961.91648.8355.37300.0681102730.0881102732.923.008110273FF29.916599.916241461.7932244527400.562473782812471633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253344962.83450.84656.8400.0681102730.1281102732.933.058110273FF30.834601.834241461.7932244527400.597594671297371633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253344962.90650.7256.81300.0106299270.2006299272.923.120629927FF30.906596.906241461.7932244527400.600320068413781633425250DRYMH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253344962.18649.9156.04800.0055118140.1055118142.93.005511814FF30.186593.186241461.7932244527400.572867744121611633425250DRYMH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253344961.80849.11855.46300.0055118140.1455118142.923.065511814FF29.808595.808241461.7932244527400.558303679238271633425250DRYMH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253344961.55648.81255.18400.0019685050.0619685052.922.981968505FF29.556592.556241461.7932244527400.548549059868931633415225DRYL
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253344962.97848.4755.72400.0381889970.1081889972.872.978188997FF30.978590.978241461.7932244527400.603040587658071633425250DRYMH
2025-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253344962.27647.53454.90500.0381889970.1081889972.852.958188997FF30.276589.276241461.7932244527400.576321556750861633425250DRYMH
2025-08-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253344961.98847.67854.83300.0374015950.1074015952.862.967401595FF29.988588.988241461.7932244527400.565250031341631633425250DRYMH
2025-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253344958.87444.09651.48500.0803150040.3003150042.843.140315004FF26.874574.874241461.7932244527400.444093222568251623425245DRYM
2025-08-23 20:00:02FORECAST20253344960.40445.08652.74500.0803150040.3003150042.853.150315004FF28.404578.404241461.7932244527400.503671645081951633425250DRYMH
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253344960.09845.53652.81700.011811030.101811032.882.98181103FF28.098580.098241461.7932244527400.491719746233911623425245DRYM
2025-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253344967.15448.16457.65900.0283464720.0383464722.82.838346472FF35.154589.154241461.7932244527400.748610303990251643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253344964.86849.06456.96600.0283464720.0383464722.82.838346472FF32.868591.868241461.7932244527400.672302131893221633415225DRYL
2025-08-23 04:00:04FORECAST20253344965.1249.31657.21800.0283464720.0383464722.812.848346472FF33.12597.12241461.7932244527400.681162996596361633415225DRYL
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253344960.42244.16852.295000.012.862.87FF28.422584.422241461.7932244527400.504374700137781633415225DRYL
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253344960.87244.22252.547000.012.872.88FF28.872586.872241461.7932244527400.521940987534541633415225DRYL
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253344961.28643.8852.583000.012.872.88FF29.286585.286241461.7932244527400.538065208661491633415225DRYL
2025-08-22 12:00:02FORECAST20253344960.8946.41853.65400.1464567720.2464567722.813.056456772FF28.89586.89241461.7932244527400.522642980425771633425250DRYMH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253344960.40446.32853.36600.1464567720.2464567722.813.056456772FF28.404583.404241461.7932244527400.503671645081951633425250DRYMH
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253344963.35646.32854.842000.072.812.88FF31.356593.356241461.7932244527400.617238316734381633415225DRYL
2025-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20253344963.51851.51257.51500.0559055420.1159055422.792.905905542FF31.518595.518241461.7932244527400.623276392280941633425250DRYMH
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253344964.11252.7958.45100.0582677480.1182677482.792.908267748FF32.112603.112241461.7932244527400.645149153528631633525255DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253344964.38253.81659.09900.0582677480.1182677482.792.908267748FF32.382599.382241461.7932244527400.654940328072791633525255DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253344966.57853.3359.954000.042.812.85FF34.578598.578241461.7932244527400.730299226122991643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253344966.57853.3359.954000.042.812.85FF34.578600.578241461.7932244527400.730299226122991643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20253344966.21851.90859.063000.042.812.85FF34.218601.218241461.7932244527400.718525405845811643515230DRYL
2025-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253344948.8347.85848.344000.062.82.86FF16.83563.83241461.7932244527400.130445297304491613415220DRYL
2025-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20253344946.09438.06642.08000.062.82.86FF14.094554.094241461.7932244527400.0818688671038121613415220DRYL
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253344946.88636.33841.612000.012.812.82FF14.886557.886241461.7932244527400.094270548945081613415220DRYL
2025-08-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253344936.98634.1635.573000.092.822.91FF4.986548.986241461.7932244527400.0110572658085491613415220DRYL
2025-08-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253344936.98634.1635.573000.092.822.91FF4.986552.986241461.7932244527400.0110572658085491613415220DRYL
2025-08-20 04:00:04FORECAST20253344937.97636.73437.355000.22.83FF5.976539.976241461.7932244527400.0142314452182421613425240DRYM