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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 27, 2025

[ Tuesday, August 26, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 28, 2025 ]

DAY 331 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/28/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.20°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.689
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 34
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 650

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 238
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 46

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-28 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253314665.7556.6499261.1999600.0499999999999550.0499999999999552.792.84FF33.75649.75238460.23272928919 00.6888126858518316 33515227.5DRYL
2025-08-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253314658.94650.9954.96800.0570866450.0570866452.792.847086645FF26.946642.946238460.2327292891900.433632389251341623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253314661.21452.48456.84900.0515748310.0515748312.792.841574831FF29.214645.214238460.2327292891900.521029774817861633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 08:00:01FORECAST20253314661.55653.22257.38900.0582677480.0582677482.792.848267748FF29.556645.556238460.2327292891900.534224489323141633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-27 04:00:02FORECAST20253314660.45852.75456.60600.0637795620.0637795622.792.853779562FF28.458644.458238460.2327292891900.491801351052271623515225DRYL
2025-08-27 00:00:01FORECAST20253314661.86252.64657.25400.0169291430.0169291432.792.806929143FF29.862636.862238460.2327292891900.545998911031761633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-26 20:00:01FORECAST20253314662.34853.27657.81200.0350393890.0950393892.792.885039389FF30.348636.348238460.2327292891900.564612559376871633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253314663.9553.92458.93700.0456693160.1056693162.792.895669316FF31.95637.95238460.2327292891900.624750450827391633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 12:00:01FORECAST20253314663.8653.79858.82900.047244120.107244122.792.89724412FF31.86637.86238460.2327292891900.621436665764611633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 08:00:01FORECAST20253314663.06853.3358.19900.0885827250.1085827252.792.898582725FF31.068638.068238460.2327292891900.591915470068871633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253314662.49252.93457.71300.1232284130.1732284132.792.963228413FF30.492637.492238460.2327292891900.570102230820661633525255DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:01FORECAST20253314663.57253.88858.7300.0610236550.1010236552.792.891023655FF31.572629.572238460.2327292891900.61077353899671633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 20:00:01FORECAST20253314664.32854.08659.20700.1051181670.1151181672.792.905118167FF32.328631.328238460.2327292891900.638565518698391633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 16:00:01FORECAST20253314662.85254.19458.52300.1748032440.1848032442.792.974803244FF30.852631.852238460.2327292891900.583765014955251633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253314664.97655.43660.20600.0937008380.1337008382.792.923700838FF32.976633.976238460.2327292891900.661824991494361633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253314665.355.83260.56600.1015748580.1415748582.792.931574858FF33.3635.3238460.2327292891900.673233787446761633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253314664.23855.56259.900.0547244390.1347244392.792.924724439FF32.238635.238238460.2327292891900.635291782629071633525255DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253314666.2956.46261.37600.0645669640.1145669642.792.904566964FF34.29631.29238460.2327292891900.707068767522371643525260DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253314667.42456.5761.99700.090551230.130551232.792.92055123FF35.424633.424238460.2327292891900.743698629740651643525260DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20253314667.157.30862.20400.1149606920.1349606922.792.924960692FF35.1632.1238460.2327292891900.733481100671411643525260DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253314665.76855.56260.66500.0496063260.0796063262.792.869606326FF33.768629.768238460.2327292891900.689429108033451633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253314667.2855.6761.47500.0322834820.0622834822.792.852283482FF35.28631.28238460.2327292891900.739182809526791643515230DRYL
2025-08-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253314667.0156.10261.55600.0409449040.0709449042.792.860944904FF35.01632.01238460.2327292891900.730606821649151643515230DRYL
2025-08-24 00:00:01FORECAST20253314666.23654.96860.60200.0448819140.0548819142.792.844881914FF34.236624.236238460.2327292891900.705265661201651643515230DRYL
2025-08-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253314666.14654.91460.5300.0448819140.0648819142.792.854881914FF34.146625.146238460.2327292891900.702249176998481643515230DRYL
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253314665.53454.3259.92700.0598425520.0898425522.792.879842552FF33.534627.534238460.2327292891900.681374724064611633515227.5DRYL
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253314669.29656.10262.699000.012.792.8FF37.296628.296238460.2327292891900.798512623559681643515160DRYH
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253314669.20655.72462.465000.012.792.8FF37.206632.206238460.2327292891900.796049141492861643515160DRYH
2025-08-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253314668.97255.88662.429000.022.792.81FF36.972635.972238460.2327292891900.789560829658711643515160DRYH
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253314670.32255.68863.00500.0110236280.0710236282.792.861023628FF38.322627.322238460.2327292891900.825320939929141643515160DRYH
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253314672.30255.83264.06700.0125984320.0825984322.792.872598432FF40.302631.302238460.2327292891900.870329347327981653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253314671.83455.50863.67100.0248031630.0848031632.792.874803163FF39.834631.834238460.2327292891900.860491644129481653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253314671.657.0264.3100.0082677210.0182677212.792.808267721FF39.6635.6238460.2327292891900.855387669821381653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253314671.31257.90264.60700.0086614220.0186614222.792.808661422FF39.312632.312238460.2327292891900.848935660332761643515160DRYH
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253314672.21257.95665.08400.0074803190.0174803192.792.807480319FF40.212633.212238460.2327292891900.868475682212121653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253314671.85258.15465.0030002.792.79FF39.852628.852238460.2327292891900.860879133285211653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253314671.7858.1964.9850002.792.79FF39.78632.78238460.2327292891900.859324788107941653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20253314670.91657.48864.2020002.792.79FF38.916627.916238460.2327292891900.839756781467791643515160DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20253314671.658.2864.9400.0090551230.0190551232.792.809055123FF39.6626.6238460.2327292891900.855387669821381653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253314672.71659.12665.92100.0090551230.0190551232.792.809055123FF40.716629.716238460.2327292891900.878623445687381653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20253314672.64459.46866.05600.0090551230.0190551232.792.809055123FF40.644629.644238460.2327292891900.877208360751481653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20253314671.0657.90264.48100.0153543390.0153543392.782.795354339FF39.06626.06238460.2327292891900.843135764833211643515160DRYH
2025-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20253314668.55853.40260.9800.0153543390.0153543392.782.795354339FF36.558619.558238460.2327292891900.777789893969651643515160DRYH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253314668.93652.73660.83600.0228346580.0328346582.782.812834658FF36.936618.936238460.2327292891900.788552003915871643515160DRYH
2025-08-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253314669.42255.18462.30300.0271653690.0371653692.782.817165369FF37.422620.422238460.2327292891900.801931446798771643515160DRYH
2025-08-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253314668.75655.9462.34800.0271653690.0371653692.782.817165369FF36.756623.756238460.2327292891900.783465649572551643515160DRYH
2025-08-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253314666.95653.81660.38600.0133858340.0233858342.782.803385834FF34.956613.956238460.2327292891900.728874835250841643515230DRYL
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253314667.67653.38460.5300.0047244120.0147244122.782.794724412FF35.676604.676238460.2327292891900.751502270126511643515230DRYL
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253314669.96255.61662.78900.0047244120.0147244122.782.794724412FF37.962611.962238460.2327292891900.816183325574751643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253314668.70255.1361.9160002.782.78FF36.702610.702238460.2327292891900.78192607604531643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253314669.09855.77862.4380002.782.78FF37.098607.098238460.2327292891900.793069442042621643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 08:00:03FORECAST20253314669.09855.79662.4470002.782.78FF37.098612.098238460.2327292891900.793069442042621643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253314670.0755.54462.8070002.782.78FF38.07614.07238460.2327292891900.818955292457351643515160DRYH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253314665.98450.12658.0550002.782.78FF33.984596.984238460.2327292891900.696784357624141633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253314664.07651.69257.8840002.782.78FF32.076585.076238460.2327292891900.629374280954021633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253314663.51851.5357.5240002.782.78FF31.518585.518238460.2327292891900.608764612909211633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253314671.645.66258.6310002.782.78FF39.6577.6238460.2327292891900.855387669821381653415160DRYH
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253314671.645.66258.6310002.782.78FF39.6571.6238460.2327292891900.855387669821381653415160DRYH
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253314668.4546.23857.3440002.782.78FF36.45574.45238460.2327292891900.774658650067161643415155DRYH
2025-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253314653.36649.56851.4670002.782.78FF21.366554.366238460.2327292891900.239435306565021613415220DRYL
2025-08-17 20:00:03FORECAST20253314653.36649.56851.4670002.782.78FF21.366554.366238460.2327292891900.239435306565021613415220DRYL
2025-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253314648.30841.84645.0770002.792.79FF16.308547.308238460.2327292891900.115301207601121613415220DRYL
2025-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20253314642.72837.68840.208000.012.782.79FF10.728549.728238460.2327292891900.0408253025550671613415220DRYL
2025-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20253314642.72837.68840.208000.012.782.79FF10.728550.728238460.2327292891900.0408253025550671613415220DRYL
2025-08-17 04:00:05FORECAST20253314641.39640.0140.703000.052.782.83FF9.396539.396238460.2327292891900.0306804228418061613415220DRYL