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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 25, 2025

[ Sunday, August 24, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 26, 2025 ]

DAY 329 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/26/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 78.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 63.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 71.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.967
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 47
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 631

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.79 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 236
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-26 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253294478.7163.5300671.120030002.792.79FF46.71630.71236459.18247210974 00.9670620809263716 53515165DRYH
2025-08-26 00:00:01FORECAST20253294471.18656.67863.9320002.792.79FF39.186623.186236459.1824721097400.86453364120561653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20253294470.8856.42663.6530002.792.79FF38.88622.88236459.1824721097400.857901459732521653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253294472.2355.99464.1120002.792.79FF40.23624.23236459.1824721097400.885554369855011653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253294472.5956.62464.6070002.792.79FF40.59624.59236459.1824721097400.892235659719321653515165DRYH
2025-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253294473.4957.16465.3270002.792.79FF41.49618.49236459.1824721097400.907702956765461653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 20:00:01FORECAST20253294473.50857.32665.4170002.792.79FF41.508618.508236459.1824721097400.90799465287121653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 16:00:01FORECAST20253294473.20258.26265.7320002.792.79FF41.202618.202236459.1824721097400.902942665882811653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253294472.66258.98265.8220002.792.79FF40.662617.662236459.1824721097400.893537605794491653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253294472.42858.7365.5790002.792.79FF40.428618.428236459.1824721097400.889264573530311653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 04:00:03FORECAST20253294472.57258.92865.750002.792.79FF40.572618.572236459.1824721097400.891908394354071653515165DRYH
2025-08-24 00:00:01FORECAST20253294473.43659.3666.39800.0007874020.0007874022.792.790787402FF41.436612.436236459.1824721097400.906823776118671653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 20:00:01FORECAST20253294473.2259.14466.18200.0007874020.0007874022.792.790787402FF41.22612.22236459.1824721097400.903245347586441653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253294473.97659.66666.8210002.792.79FF41.976613.976236459.1824721097400.915341793319421653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 12:00:02FORECAST20253294473.8559.61266.73100.0023622060.0023622062.792.792362206FF41.85612.85236459.1824721097400.913408295894511653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 08:00:02FORECAST20253294474.24659.88267.06400.0019685050.0019685052.792.791968505FF42.246616.246236459.1824721097400.919376051739021653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 04:00:03FORECAST20253294474.69660.45867.5770002.792.79FF42.696618.696236459.1824721097400.925775714326611653515165DRYH
2025-08-23 00:00:02FORECAST20253294475.34460.49467.91900.0023622060.0023622062.792.792362206FF43.344610.344236459.1824721097400.934302134565881653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20253294474.89460.78267.83800.0023622060.0023622062.792.792362206FF42.894610.894236459.1824721097400.928465921703211653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 16:00:01FORECAST20253294474.67860.72867.70300.0023622060.0023622062.792.792362206FF42.678611.678236459.1824721097400.925527382028331653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 12:00:01FORECAST20253294476.38861.08868.7380002.792.79FF44.388614.388236459.1824721097400.946422276935391653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 08:00:02FORECAST20253294476.02860.47668.2520002.792.79FF44.028612.028236459.1824721097400.942459843747041653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253294475.54260.38667.9640002.792.79FF43.542611.542236459.1824721097400.936750482656351653515165DRYH
2025-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20253294476.11860.81868.4680002.792.79FF44.118608.118236459.1824721097400.943471361915981653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20253294476.20861.28668.7470002.792.79FF44.208612.208236459.1824721097400.94446886212011653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253294474.76861.232680002.792.79FF42.768608.768236459.1824721097400.926762744068851653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 12:00:01FORECAST20253294472.48258.74865.6150002.792.79FF40.482608.482236459.1824721097400.890261367880641653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20253294473.29259.34266.3170002.792.79FF41.292610.292236459.1824721097400.904449165803241653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 04:00:06FORECAST20253294473.16658.74865.9570002.792.79FF41.166610.166236459.1824721097400.90233522542071653515165DRYH
2025-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20253294475.23660.22467.730002.782.78FF43.236608.236236459.1824721097400.932936153175931653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253294474.28259.59466.9380002.782.78FF42.282605.282236459.1824721097400.919902831067591653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 16:00:02FORECAST20253294474.01259.16266.5870002.782.78FF42.012604.012236459.1824721097400.915888249084211653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 12:00:02FORECAST20253294473.36458.56865.96600.0086614220.0086614222.782.788661422FF41.364605.364236459.1824721097400.905641961320451653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 08:00:02FORECAST20253294473.14858.53265.8400.0086614220.0086614222.782.788661422FF41.148608.148236459.1824721097400.902030465394751653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 04:00:03FORECAST20253294472.0558.44265.24600.0086614220.0086614222.782.788661422FF40.05602.05236459.1824721097400.882105657563211653515165DRYH
2025-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20253294470.84458.74864.79600.0051181130.0051181132.782.785118113FF38.844592.844236459.1824721097400.85710703637431653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20253294472.1460.29666.21800.0051181130.0051181132.782.785118113FF40.14596.14236459.1824721097400.883839068394561653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 16:00:02FORECAST20253294472.42859.9966.20900.003937010.003937012.782.78393701FF40.428596.428236459.1824721097400.889264573530311653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 12:00:02FORECAST20253294471.25858.78465.0210002.782.78FF39.258593.258236459.1824721097400.866062907562561653415160DRYH
2025-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20253294472.17659.28865.7320002.782.78FF40.176599.176236459.1824721097400.884527358944711653515165DRYH
2025-08-19 04:00:04FORECAST20253294472.5958.98265.7860002.782.78FF40.59599.59236459.1824721097400.892235659719321653515165DRYH
2025-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20253294470.75456.24663.50002.782.78FF38.754589.754236459.1824721097400.855107903829691653415160DRYH
2025-08-18 20:00:03FORECAST20253294467.20854.33860.7730002.782.78FF35.208582.208236459.1824721097400.761570596013361643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20253294466.90254.26660.5840002.782.78FF34.902582.902236459.1824721097400.752193651254131643415227.5DRYL
2025-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20253294462.72649.74856.2370002.782.78FF30.726575.726236459.1824721097400.607446900198471633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20253294460.76448.88454.8240002.782.78FF28.764569.764236459.1824721097400.532138378257281633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 04:00:04FORECAST20253294460.87249.92855.40002.782.78FF28.872574.872236459.1824721097400.53633969682971633415225DRYL
2025-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20253294460.40448.99254.6980002.782.78FF28.404567.404236459.1824721097400.518110733038971633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20253294460.40449.24454.8240002.782.78FF28.404567.404236459.1824721097400.518110733038971633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20253294458.65845.7752.2140002.792.79FF26.658565.658236459.1824721097400.45007512132971623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253294464.74251.63858.190002.782.78FF32.742575.742236459.1824721097400.680816871797451633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20253294464.74251.63858.190002.782.78FF32.742576.742236459.1824721097400.680816871797451633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 04:00:04FORECAST20253294462.13250.10856.1200.015748040.015748042.782.79574804FF30.132569.132236459.1824721097400.584935024631121633415225DRYL
2025-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20253294463.08649.33456.210002.932.93FF31.086563.086236459.1824721097400.620922676672751633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253294463.06849.33456.2010002.942.94FF31.068563.068236459.1824721097400.620252214522571633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 16:00:02FORECAST20253294462.3349.33455.83200.0133858340.0133858342.942.953385834FF30.33560.33236459.1824721097400.592473954140441633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20253294462.07847.04854.56300.015748040.015748042.942.95574804FF30.078555.078236459.1824721097400.582873389266471633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253294462.07847.15654.61700.015748040.015748042.932.94574804FF30.078556.078236459.1824721097400.582873389266471633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 04:00:04FORECAST20253294461.64646.05853.85200.015748040.015748042.882.89574804FF29.646549.646236459.1824721097400.56630285228671633415225DRYL
2025-08-16 00:00:02FORECAST20253294450.43243.28646.8590002.032.03FF18.432548.432236459.1824721097400.176009573664141613415220DRYL
2025-08-15 20:00:02FORECAST20253294450.43243.28646.8590002.312.31FF18.432549.432236459.1824721097400.176009573664141613415220DRYL
2025-08-15 16:00:02FORECAST20253294451.1747.58849.3790002.142.14FF19.17554.17236459.1824721097400.195331957812171613415220DRYL
2025-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20253294446.00442.74644.3750002.112.11FF14.004550.004236459.1824721097400.0861900585205451613415220DRYL
2025-08-15 08:00:03FORECAST20253294446.00442.74644.3750002.182.18FF14.004542.004236459.1824721097400.0861900585205451613415220DRYL
2025-08-15 04:00:05FORECAST20253294443.7940.38842.0890001.771.77FF11.79541.79236459.1824721097400.0568418249911311613415220DRYL