MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 2, 2025

[ Friday, August 1, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 3, 2025 ]

DAY 306 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/03/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.65°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.88°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.494
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 253

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 213
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253062164.6500248.8800456.765030000.320.32FF32.65002252.65002213446.51296670182 00.4942969997043616 22215215DRYL
2025-08-03 00:00:02FORECAST20253062160.49444.79852.6460000.320.32FF28.494248.494213446.5129667018200.305201653894551622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 12:00:02FORECAST20253062161.17845.12253.150000.320.32FF29.178249.178213446.5129667018200.334327517703631622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 08:00:02FORECAST20253062161.59242.02651.8090000.320.32FF29.592249.592213446.5129667018200.352468430416831622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 04:00:03FORECAST20253062162.52842.11652.3220000.320.32FF30.528250.528213446.5129667018200.394681544709421622215215DRYL
2025-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20253062164.41842.15253.2850000.320.32FF32.418247.418213446.5129667018200.483272744838941622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 20:00:01FORECAST20253062162.94244.40253.6720000.320.32FF30.942246.942213446.5129667018200.413789001056051622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 16:00:01FORECAST20253062162.49245.17653.8340000.320.32FF30.492246.492213446.5129667018200.393031226576381622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 12:00:02FORECAST20253062162.5147.24654.8780000.320.32FF30.51246.51213446.5129667018200.393856147426691622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 08:00:02FORECAST20253062162.56447.3954.9770000.320.32FF30.564248.564213446.5129667018200.396333754482461622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 04:00:03FORECAST20253062162.85247.80455.3280000.320.32FF30.852249.852213446.5129667018200.409616121676011622215215DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:02FORECAST20253062162.79847.87655.337000.010.320.33FF30.798247.798213446.5129667018200.407117266719051622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:02FORECAST20253062162.5147.17454.84200.0003937010.0603937010.320.380393701FF30.51249.51213446.5129667018200.393856147426691622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:01FORECAST20253062162.45647.42654.94100.0003937010.0603937010.320.380393701FF30.456249.456213446.5129667018200.39138282822391622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253062161.98847.4854.734000.050.320.37FF29.988248.988213446.5129667018200.37014095824391622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:02FORECAST20253062161.66447.42654.54500.0003937010.1403937010.320.460393701FF29.664248.664213446.5129667018200.355659336134091622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:03FORECAST20253062161.73647.06654.401000.120.320.44FF29.736247.736213446.5129667018200.358860383860361622225230DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253062162.2447.5754.905000.090.320.41FF30.24244.24213446.5129667018200.381534316092871622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253062162.88847.82255.355000.10.320.42FF30.888246.888213446.5129667018200.411284073447481622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:01FORECAST20253062162.647.35454.977000.010.320.33FF30.6247.6213446.5129667018200.39798782765241622215215DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:02FORECAST20253062162.18647.08454.635000.120.320.44FF30.186247.186213446.5129667018200.379083845986731622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253062160.8946.23853.564000.170.320.49FF28.89244.89213446.5129667018200.321928985660121622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253062160.04446.23853.141000.130.320.45FF28.044243.044213446.5129667018200.286676589181091622225230DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:02FORECAST20253062158.71245.5952.15100.0188976480.2388976480.320.558897648FF26.712309.712213446.5129667018200.235192164950691612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253062158.22645.46451.84500.0188976480.2588976480.320.578897648FF26.226308.226213446.5129667018200.217761093915841612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253062159.7246.00452.86200.0188976480.1888976480.320.508897648FF27.72311.72213446.5129667018200.273677270004961622225230DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253062157.8345.01451.42200.0125984320.3325984320.320.652598432FF25.83308.83213446.5129667018200.204125028963161612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253062157.61445.51851.56600.0145669370.3745669370.320.694566937FF25.614311.614213446.5129667018200.196906147946981612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253062158.47845.37451.92600.0145669370.3045669370.320.624566937FF26.478311.478213446.5129667018200.226704994740851612225225DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:03FORECAST20253062157.3844.7851.0800.0003937010.1803937010.320.500393701FF25.38370.38213446.5129667018200.18926225865141612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:02FORECAST20253062157.00245.10451.05300.0003937010.1003937010.320.420393701FF25.002370.002213446.5129667018200.177305884532031612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253062156.69645.08650.89100.0003937010.0903937010.320.410393701FF24.696371.696213446.5129667018200.167983680821761612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253062158.15444.36651.2600.0082677210.1082677210.320.428267721FF26.154372.154213446.5129667018200.215243513745151612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:02FORECAST20253062158.60444.99651.800.0102362260.1402362260.320.460236226FF26.604371.604213446.5129667018200.231253410705291612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:04FORECAST20253062157.99244.83451.41300.0086614220.2186614220.370.588661422FF25.992372.992213446.5129667018200.209641009230591612225225DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:03FORECAST20253062157.52446.02251.77300.0114173290.4314173290.330.761417329FF25.524430.524213446.5129667018200.193944376784571612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253062156.31842.99849.65800.0106299270.4206299270.330.750629927FF24.318431.318213446.5129667018200.156910913852331612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 16:00:02FORECAST20253062156.37242.8949.63100.0106299270.3906299270.330.720629927FF24.372429.372213446.5129667018200.15846272619651612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253062157.52443.66450.59400.0011811030.2511811030.330.581181103FF25.524434.524213446.5129667018200.193944376784571612325230DRYL
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253062159.97244.74452.35800.0011811030.2311811030.320.551181103FF27.972435.972213446.5129667018200.283762722902811622325235DRYL
2025-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253062160.11645.48252.79900.0019685050.2019685050.320.521968505FF28.116437.116213446.5129667018200.289604552071251622325235DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253062161.30445.12253.213000.20.420.62FF29.304493.304213446.5129667018200.339810227320461622325235DRYL
2025-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20253062160.38646.83253.609000.20.420.62FF28.386492.386213446.5129667018200.300707405542111622325235DRYL
2025-07-26 16:00:03FORECAST20253062160.13446.50853.321000.150.470.62FF28.134490.134213446.5129667018200.290338728130431622325235DRYL
2025-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253062158.04644.65451.3500.003937010.323937010.380.70393701FF26.046490.046213446.5129667018200.211498932722191612325230DRYL
2025-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253062158.0143.41250.71100.003937010.323937010.380.70393701FF26.01488.01213446.5129667018200.210259250109541612325230DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:04FORECAST20253062159.7243.50251.61100.0043307110.3243307110.40.724330711FF27.72491.72213446.5129667018200.273677270004961622325235DRYL
2025-07-26 00:00:03FORECAST20253062162.7845.48254.131000.10.350.45FF30.78546.78213446.5129667018200.406285148953071622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253062162.81647.10254.959000.10.340.44FF30.816551.816213446.5129667018200.407949803841041622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253062159.5446.74253.14100.0311023790.0811023790.340.421102379FF27.54548.54213446.5129667018200.266583477550991622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253062161.5245.30253.411000.330.340.67FF29.52547.52213446.5129667018200.349287868341491622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 08:00:03FORECAST20253062161.26845.93253.6000.330.340.67FF29.268550.268213446.5129667018200.338240216672161622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253062162.34846.52654.437000.360.320.68FF30.348550.348213446.5129667018200.386449431687331622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 00:00:03FORECAST20253062164.9447.10256.021000.090.360.45FF32.94567.94213446.5129667018200.508080319867761632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-24 20:00:03FORECAST20253062164.61645.5955.103000.090.360.45FF32.616561.616213446.5129667018200.492680091042851622415220DRYL
2025-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253062165.22846.05855.643000.280.360.64FF33.228564.228213446.5129667018200.521760020159891632425245DRYM
2025-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253062160.6243.05251.836000.110.390.5FF28.62546.62213446.5129667018200.310482236528561622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 08:00:03FORECAST20253062160.51244.16852.34000.110.40.51FF28.512543.512213446.5129667018200.305953581880481622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253062167.2844.18655.733000.370.40.77FF35.28554.28213446.5129667018200.617556890539321632425245DRYM
2025-07-24 00:00:03FORECAST20253062152.57447.19249.883000.20.380.58FF20.574552.574213446.5129667018200.0729688243979631612425235DRYL
2025-07-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253062151.81844.40248.11000.20.380.58FF19.818550.818213446.5129667018200.0612509616292221612425235DRYL
2025-07-23 16:00:03FORECAST20253062151.27842.18846.733000.220.390.61FF19.278547.278213446.5129667018200.05381898795521612425235DRYL
2025-07-23 12:00:04FORECAST20253062149.0143.08846.049000.40.350.75FF17.01537.01213446.5129667018200.0300381895184031612425235DRYL
2025-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20253062149.0143.08846.049000.390.360.75FF17.01540.01213446.5129667018200.0300381895184031612425235DRYL
2025-07-23 04:00:07FORECAST20253062149.98247.22848.605000.410.360.77FF17.982553.982213446.5129667018200.0388744937890431612425235DRYL