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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 18, 2025

[ Sunday, August 17, 2025 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 19, 2025 ]

DAY 322 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/19/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 51.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.298
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 26
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 513

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 229
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 67.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-19 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253223758.1100844.8599251.485000.573.534.1TF26.11008513.11008229455.44307233574 00.2976820282647816 23435267.5WETMH
2025-08-19 00:00:01FORECAST20253223752.8840.87446.877000.573.534.1TF20.88507.88229455.4430723357400.144427732134961613435260WETMH
2025-08-18 12:00:01FORECAST20253223755.02241.1848.101000.573.534.1TF23.022510.022229455.4430723357400.19941910940421613435260WETMH
2025-08-18 08:00:01FORECAST20253223754.39240.83847.615000.573.534.1TF22.392509.392229455.4430723357400.18207331487151613435260WETMH
2025-08-18 04:00:03FORECAST20253223755.29240.83848.065000.573.534.1TF23.292510.292229455.4430723357400.207147170800881613435260WETMH
2025-08-18 00:00:01FORECAST20253223755.74240.5548.146000.573.534.1TF23.742507.742229455.4430723357400.220413017292241613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 20:00:01FORECAST20253223755.8542.40449.12700.0011811030.5711811033.534.101181103TF23.85508.85229455.4430723357400.223667660492061613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 16:00:01FORECAST20253223756.01241.70248.857000.573.534.1TF24.012509.012229455.4430723357400.228600393786971613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 12:00:02FORECAST20253223756.49843.03449.766000.573.534.1TF24.498509.498229455.4430723357400.243758542933511613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 08:00:02FORECAST20253223756.46242.72849.595000.573.534.1TF24.462508.462229455.4430723357400.242617450797791613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 04:00:03FORECAST20253223754.9542.69248.821000.573.534.1TF22.95505.95229455.4430723357400.197387922964771613435260WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:02FORECAST20253223755.02241.95448.48800.0011811030.7211811033.534.251181103TF23.022506.022229455.4430723357400.19941910940421613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 20:00:02FORECAST20253223754.39241.95448.173000.733.534.26TF22.392505.392229455.4430723357400.18207331487151613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 16:00:01FORECAST20253223754.15842.2648.20900.0003937010.7303937013.534.260393701TF22.158506.158229455.4430723357400.175877859975531613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253223753.63642.15247.894000.733.534.26TF21.636505.636229455.4430723357400.162543865127221613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:02FORECAST20253223753.76241.91847.8400.0003937010.7203937013.534.250393701TF21.762505.762229455.4430723357400.165700746446471613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253223754.39241.30647.849000.673.534.2TF22.392506.392229455.4430723357400.18207331487151613435260WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:01FORECAST20253223754.8641.95448.407000.982.373.35TF22.86506.86229455.4430723357400.194866572064441613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 20:00:01FORECAST20253223754.84242.13448.488000.842.793.63TF22.842506.842229455.4430723357400.194364657363751613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253223755.52641.79248.659000.672.793.46TF23.526508.526229455.4430723357400.213985678982231613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253223756.5741.39648.983000.642.793.43TF24.57509.57229455.4430723357400.246049378281481613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253223755.65241.25248.452000.562.943.5TF23.652508.652229455.4430723357400.217721635539691613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 04:00:04FORECAST20253223756.10240.60448.353000.592.53.09FF24.102509.102229455.4430723357400.231366941836511613435260DRYH
2025-08-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253223755.41840.60448.011000.642.43.04FF23.418507.418229455.4430723357400.210813281736331613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253223754.62640.76647.696000.642.332.97FF22.626507.626229455.4430723357400.188403120146841613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253223754.21241.91848.065000.612.393FF22.212506.212229455.4430723357400.177295624842251613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253223753.79842.20648.00200.0043307110.5843307112.312.894330711FF21.798506.798229455.4430723357400.166609927274511613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253223753.52842.3547.93900.0043307110.6043307112.362.964330711FF21.528507.528229455.4430723357400.15986924304681613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253223755.0443.95249.49600.0043307110.5743307112.382.954330711FF23.04511.04229455.4430723357400.199928861234961613435260DRYH
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253223755.7642.849.28000.612.483.09FF23.76506.76229455.4430723357400.220953568658351613435260DRYH
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253223757.241.949.55000.582.563.14FF25.2505.2229455.4430723357400.266576511614011623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253223756.89441.14449.019000.552.93.45FF24.894501.894229455.4430723357400.256499272144651623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-13 12:00:01FORECAST20253223755.9441.73848.83900.0098425250.5298425252.793.319842525FF23.94499.94229455.4430723357400.22640057499511613435260DRYH
2025-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253223755.54441.46848.50600.0090551230.4990551232.773.269055123FF23.544502.544229455.4430723357400.214517095408241613435260DRYH
2025-08-13 04:00:03FORECAST20253223755.29241.50448.39800.0090551230.4590551232.933.389055123FF23.292503.292229455.4430723357400.207147170800881613425240DRYM
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253223757.54242.6250.08100.0401575020.8101575022.913.720157502TF25.542506.542229455.4430723357400.278071143453331623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-12 20:00:01FORECAST20253223756.71442.38649.5500.0401575020.7801575022.893.670157502TF24.714503.714229455.4430723357400.250665429255861623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-12 16:00:02FORECAST20253223757.77642.42250.09900.0401575020.9101575022.793.700157502TF25.776505.776229455.4430723357400.286072605994121623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253223756.42643.0749.74800.0917323330.7317323333.34.031732333TF24.426504.426229455.4430723357400.241479252765631613435260WETMH
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253223756.62443.10649.86500.0917323330.7317323333.34.031732333TF24.624504.624229455.4430723357400.247775043217181613435260WETMH
2025-08-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253223756.85842.13449.49600.0925197350.8125197353.224.032519735TF24.858499.858229455.4430723357400.255326879793831623435267.5WETMH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253223757.25440.83849.04600.0059055150.6159055152.683.295905515FF25.254496.254229455.4430723357400.268375379384111623335260DRYH
2025-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20253223755.7641.86448.81200.0051181130.6351181132.683.315118113FF23.76493.76229455.4430723357400.220953568658351613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253223755.83242.54849.1900.0051181130.6851181132.713.395118113TF23.832492.832229455.4430723357400.223123333270591613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253223759.91843.14251.53000.732.83.53TF27.918501.918229455.4430723357400.363887389696531623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253223760.18841.88251.035000.732.83.53TF28.188500.188229455.4430723357400.374196422870641623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-11 04:00:04FORECAST20253223762.74444.09653.42000.762.83.56TF30.744504.744229455.4430723357400.475258299279971623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20253223759.2742.33250.801000.9122.91FF27.27496.27229455.4430723357400.339556271890121623335260DRYH
2025-08-10 20:00:03FORECAST20253223759.2742.49450.882000.9322.93FF27.27499.27229455.4430723357400.339556271890121623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 16:00:05FORECAST20253223760.76443.28652.025000.972.243.21FF28.764499.764229455.4430723357400.396483361657221623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253223759.30642.92651.116000.541.782.32FF27.306509.306229455.4430723357400.340891721037951623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20253223758.47841.97250.225000.541.782.32FF26.478506.478229455.4430723357400.310710177177141623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 04:00:05FORECAST20253223757.45241.77449.613000.521.732.25FF25.452500.452229455.4430723357400.275022961184241623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 00:00:06FORECAST20253223757.2941.79249.541000.041.321.36FF25.29503.29229455.4430723357400.26957800252691623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20253223757.41641.949.658000.041.321.36FF25.416508.416229455.4430723357400.273808308342071623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253223758.24441.0949.667000.141.321.46FF26.244510.244229455.4430723357400.302395350930321623425245DRYM
2025-08-09 12:00:03FORECAST20253223758.89245.33852.11500.0051181130.2451181131.531.775118113FF26.892494.892229455.4430723357400.325658186129471623325240DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253223759.07244.11451.59300.0051181130.2451181131.541.785118113FF27.072489.072229455.4430723357400.332247624221141623325240DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253223758.5543.21450.88200.0051181130.2451181131.541.785118113FF26.55487.55229455.4430723357400.313288413223991623325240DRYM
2025-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253223742.92640.31641.621000.061.321.38FF10.926468.926229455.4430723357400.0191651623018861613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253223742.72840.5541.639000.061.321.38FF10.728467.728229455.4430723357400.0182434076821321613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253223741.91840.24441.081000.061.321.38FF9.918461.918229455.4430723357400.0148550963354831613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253223745.7743.82644.798000.011.321.33FF13.77469.77229455.4430723357400.0373736448228211613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20253223745.7743.82644.798000.011.351.36FF13.77462.77229455.4430723357400.0373736448228211613315217.5DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253223746.63445.19445.9140001.331.33FF14.634481.634229455.4430723357400.0451124972184251613315217.5DRYL