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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 16, 2025

[ Friday, August 15, 2025 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 17, 2025 ]

DAY 320 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/17/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.44°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.166
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 534

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.57 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.78 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 227
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 35

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 100.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-17 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253203552.5245.4400648.9800300.570000000000052.781.324.1000000000001TF20.52533.52227454.35627508706 00.1660495429402316 134552100WETMH
2025-08-17 00:00:01FORECAST20253203552.17843.82648.00200.7232287372.9332287371.324.253228737TF20.178533.178227454.3562750870600.1580259594784316134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 12:00:02FORECAST20253203552.53843.80848.17300.7251972422.9351972421.324.255197242TF20.538533.538227454.3562750870600.166478986405916134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 08:00:01FORECAST20253203553.02444.0648.54200.7216539332.9316539331.324.251653933TF21.024534.024227454.3562750870600.1783436919358116134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 04:00:03FORECAST20253203553.18644.29448.7400.6744098132.8844098131.324.204409813TF21.186534.186227454.3562750870600.1824138940430616134552100WETMH
2025-08-16 00:00:01FORECAST20253203553.97844.43849.20800.9814965932.0314965931.323.351496593TF21.978533.978227454.3562750870600.2031350470482716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 20:00:01FORECAST20253203554.1443.8849.0100.8448823462.3148823461.323.634882346TF22.14534.14227454.3562750870600.20753998944916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 16:00:01FORECAST20253203554.51845.17649.84700.6681105972.1381105971.323.458110597TF22.518534.518227454.3562750870600.2180347067912516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 12:00:02FORECAST20253203555.16644.88850.02700.6448822382.1148822381.323.434882238TF23.166535.166227454.3562750870600.2367179999941716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 08:00:02FORECAST20253203555.14844.25849.70300.5555121112.1755121111.323.495512111TF23.148535.148227454.3562750870600.2361874224019516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 04:00:03FORECAST20253203554.75243.9749.36100.5921263041.7721263041.323.092126304TF22.752534.752227454.3562750870600.224681622424816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-15 00:00:01FORECAST20253203554.91444.40249.65800.6413389291.7213389291.323.041338929TF22.914533.914227454.3562750870600.229349752078216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 20:00:02FORECAST20253203554.82444.43849.63100.6393704241.6493704241.322.969370424TF22.824533.824227454.3562750870600.2267496746257316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 16:00:02FORECAST20253203554.1443.80848.97400.6070869421.6770869421.322.997086942TF22.14533.14227454.3562750870600.20753998944916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20253203554.51844.09649.30700.5822837791.5722837791.322.892283779FF22.518533.518227454.3562750870600.2180347067912516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 08:00:02FORECAST20253203554.87843.80849.34300.6035436331.6435436331.322.963543633TF22.878534.878227454.3562750870600.2283077241945316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 04:00:02FORECAST20253203554.73444.61849.67600.5677168421.6277168421.322.947716842TF22.734534.734227454.3562750870600.2241662829409216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20253203554.75244.65449.70300.6145672611.7745672611.323.094567261TF22.752530.752227454.3562750870600.224681622424816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20253203554.73444.72649.7300.5783467691.8183467691.323.138346769TF22.734528.734227454.3562750870600.2241662829409216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 16:00:01FORECAST20253203554.26645.48249.87400.5452758852.1252758851.323.445275885TF22.266527.266227454.3562750870600.2110046814701116134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 12:00:01FORECAST20253203554.12245.98650.05400.5228349281.9928349281.323.312834928TF22.122526.122227454.3562750870600.207047787253216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20253203554.62645.93250.27900.4909451471.9409451471.323.260945147TF22.626528.626227454.3562750870600.2210883537430616134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 04:00:02FORECAST20253203554.48245.82450.15300.4460632332.0560632331.323.376063233TF22.482529.482227454.3562750870600.2170222432168316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-13 00:00:02FORECAST20253203554.87846.47250.67500.6948822652.2748822651.333.604882265TF22.878528.878227454.3562750870600.2283077241945316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 20:00:01FORECAST20253203554.69846.70650.70200.661417682.231417681.323.55141768TF22.698527.698227454.3562750870600.2231376168089216134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 16:00:01FORECAST20253203556.15647.55251.85400.7917327112.2517327111.333.581732711TF24.156529.156227454.3562750870600.2668837564089516234552112.5DRYVH
2025-08-12 12:00:02FORECAST20253203554.87846.3150.59400.6275593942.5975593941.333.927559394TF22.878527.878227454.3562750870600.2283077241945316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 08:00:02FORECAST20253203554.75245.98650.36900.6275593942.6075593941.323.927559394TF22.752527.752227454.3562750870600.224681622424816134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 04:00:04FORECAST20253203554.10444.54649.32500.7078743982.6078743981.323.927874398TF22.104525.104227454.3562750870600.2065562749887416134552100DRYVH
2025-08-12 00:00:02FORECAST20253203553.07844.85248.96500.6125987561.9725987561.323.292598756TF21.078521.078227454.3562750870600.1796940369791316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 20:00:01FORECAST20253203553.02445.98649.50500.6303153011.9903153011.323.310315301TF21.024521.024227454.3562750870600.1783436919358116134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20253203553.07846.43649.75700.6287404972.0187404971.323.338740497TF21.078520.078227454.3562750870600.1796940369791316134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20253203553.1545.60849.37900.7118114082.1918114081.323.511811408TF21.15524.15227454.3562750870600.1815044375448116134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20253203553.11444.5148.81200.7137799132.1937799131.323.513779913TF21.114523.114227454.3562750870600.1805978179154916134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 04:00:03FORECAST20253203552.71844.72648.72200.7318901592.2118901591.323.531890159TF20.718523.718227454.3562750870600.1708127054754616134552100DRYVH
2025-08-11 00:00:02FORECAST20253203552.7946.02249.40600.8988193831.5788193831.322.898819383FF20.79518.79227454.3562750870600.172566177507516134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20253203552.98845.71649.35200.9216540411.6016540411.322.921654041FF20.988521.988227454.3562750870600.1774470152372716134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20253203553.49246.05849.77500.9649611511.8849611511.323.204961151TF21.492520.492227454.3562750870600.1902585255296116134552100DRYVH
2025-08-10 12:00:02FORECAST20253203558.42446.25652.3400.4200789670.8800789671.322.200078967FF26.424530.424227454.3562750870600.342558934298121623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253203556.62446.0451.33200.4200789670.8800789671.322.200078967FF24.624527.624227454.3562750870600.281790207856191623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 04:00:04FORECAST20253203556.98445.6851.33200.3964569070.8064569071.322.126456907FF24.984523.984227454.3562750870600.293522897173321623435267.5DRYH
2025-08-10 00:00:05FORECAST20253203556.7546.47251.6110001.321.32FF24.75527.75227454.3562750870600.285870892030631623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253203560.65646.5853.6180001.321.32FF28.656532.656227454.3562750870600.423805751250071623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20253203560.54847.08453.81600.0842520140.0842520141.321.404252014FF28.548534.548227454.3562750870600.419767293306581623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253203555.0445.91450.47700.2110237360.4210237361.321.741023736FF23.04516.04227454.3562750870600.233017729693771613425240DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:02FORECAST20253203551.38642.9847.18300.2059056230.4259056231.321.745905623FF19.386510.386227454.3562750870600.140435713322031613425240DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:04FORECAST20253203550.5443.08846.81400.2066930250.4266930251.321.746693025FF18.54509.54227454.3562750870600.123165223006291613425240DRYM
2025-08-09 00:00:03FORECAST20253203551.9841.25246.61600.0622047580.0622047581.321.382204758FF19.98508.98227454.3562750870600.153498739561091613415220DRYL
2025-08-08 20:00:02FORECAST20253203551.92641.12646.52600.0622047580.0622047581.321.382204758FF19.926508.926227454.3562750870600.152279060721041613415220DRYL
2025-08-08 16:00:02FORECAST20253203550.59440.11845.35600.0555118410.0555118411.321.375511841FF18.594504.594227454.3562750870600.124221145237991613415220DRYL
2025-08-08 12:00:02FORECAST20253203552.50243.39447.94800.007874020.007874021.321.32787402FF20.502505.502227454.3562750870600.165620814093481613415220DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:03FORECAST20253203551.1742.83647.00300.0149606380.0449606381.321.364960638FF19.17500.17227454.3562750870600.135877813523351613415220DRYL
2025-08-08 04:00:04FORECAST20253203556.78643.8850.333000.011.321.33FF24.786511.786227454.3562750870600.287041935654541623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-08 00:00:03FORECAST20253203553.04240.80246.92200.4311025950.5811025951.321.901102595FF21.042499.042227454.3562750870600.178793096487351613435260DRYH
2025-08-07 20:00:02FORECAST20253203553.09640.8246.95800.4311025950.5811025951.321.901102595FF21.096501.096227454.3562750870600.180145572499521613435260DRYH
2025-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20253203550.95438.85844.90600.4318899970.6118899971.331.941889997FF18.954494.954227454.3562750870600.131421967759891613335252.5DRYMH
2025-08-07 12:00:02FORECAST20253203562.94245.12254.0320001.321.32FF30.942528.942227454.3562750870600.510496802971351633415225DRYL
2025-08-07 08:00:03FORECAST20253203562.94245.12254.0320001.321.32FF30.942534.942227454.3562750870600.510496802971351633415225DRYL
2025-08-07 04:00:04FORECAST20253203554.96842.31448.641000.141.321.46FF22.968514.968227454.3562750870600.230917772374631613425240DRYM
2025-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20253203545.73435.4240.57700.0082677210.0282677210.410.438267721FF13.734508.734227454.3562750870600.052652329426931613415220DRYL
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253203545.98635.4240.70300.0082677210.0282677210.650.678267721FF13.986505.986227454.3562750870600.0553003710996741613415220DRYL
2025-08-06 16:00:02FORECAST20253203548.05637.90442.9800.0098425250.0298425250.650.679842525FF16.056516.056227454.3562750870600.081188629483391613415220DRYL
2025-08-06 12:00:03FORECAST20253203556.31852.89854.608000.020.660.68FF24.318538.318227454.3562750870600.27199836047561623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-06 08:00:03FORECAST20253203556.31852.89854.608000.021.141.16FF24.318545.318227454.3562750870600.27199836047561623415222.5DRYL
2025-08-06 04:00:04FORECAST20253203555.29254.84255.067000.051.371.42FF23.292543.292227454.3562750870600.240450307611591613415220DRYL