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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 10, 2025

[ Saturday, August 9, 2025 | Index | Today | Monday, August 11, 2025 ]

DAY 314 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/11/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.26°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.845
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 206

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 221
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 29

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-11 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253142974.9100255.6199665.264990001.321.32FF42.91002205.91002221451.04588309528 00.8448999809851316 42215140DRYM
2025-08-11 00:00:01FORECAST20253142974.28253.07863.680001.321.32FF42.282205.282221451.0458830952800.827916315927291642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 12:00:01FORECAST20253142974.69653.02463.860001.321.32FF42.696205.696221451.0458830952800.83924060771651642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 08:00:02FORECAST20253142974.24653.31263.7790001.321.32FF42.246205.246221451.0458830952800.826908148542421642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 04:00:03FORECAST20253142972.78853.36663.0770001.321.32FF40.788203.788221451.0458830952800.78296384355641642215140DRYM
2025-08-10 00:00:02FORECAST20253142974.24653.3363.7880001.321.32FF42.246203.246221451.0458830952800.826908148542421642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 20:00:02FORECAST20253142974.19252.73663.4640001.321.32FF42.192203.192221451.0458830952800.825388875990791642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 16:00:01FORECAST20253142974.13853.58263.860001.321.32FF42.138203.138221451.0458830952800.823861183346551642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 12:00:02FORECAST20253142972.89652.98862.9420001.321.32FF40.896201.896221451.0458830952800.786424339177281642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 08:00:01FORECAST20253142972.60853.74463.1760001.321.32FF40.608202.608221451.0458830952800.777125066812611642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 04:00:03FORECAST20253142972.69853.663.1490001.321.32FF40.698202.698221451.0458830952800.780055552505741642215140DRYM
2025-08-09 00:00:02FORECAST20253142972.64453.61863.1310001.321.32FF40.644199.644221451.0458830952800.778299917092361642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 20:00:01FORECAST20253142973.0454.51863.7790001.321.32FF41.04200.04221451.0458830952800.790988053161211642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 16:00:01FORECAST20253142973.11254.55463.8330001.321.32FF41.112200.112221451.0458830952800.793248247229831642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 12:00:01FORECAST20253142972.30253.56462.9330001.321.32FF40.302198.302221451.0458830952800.766997012908441642115135DRYL
2025-08-08 08:00:02FORECAST20253142972.44652.93462.690001.321.32FF40.446199.446221451.0458830952800.77179463795411642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 04:00:03FORECAST20253142972.46453.22262.8430001.321.32FF40.464199.464221451.0458830952800.77239041812931642215140DRYM
2025-08-08 00:00:02FORECAST20253142972.30253.662.9510001.321.32FF40.302201.302221451.0458830952800.766997012908441642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 20:00:01FORECAST20253142972.24853.54662.8970001.321.32FF40.248203.248221451.0458830952800.765183589722141642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 16:00:02FORECAST20253142972.44653.49262.9690001.321.32FF40.446205.446221451.0458830952800.77179463795411642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 12:00:01FORECAST20253142972.78854.1463.4640001.321.32FF40.788205.788221451.0458830952800.78296384355641642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 08:00:02FORECAST20253142972.96854.82463.8960001.321.32FF40.968205.968221451.0458830952800.78871340065231642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 04:00:03FORECAST20253142972.7753.74463.2570001.321.32FF40.77205.77221451.0458830952800.782383966346831642215140DRYM
2025-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20253142972.53652.23262.3840000.410.41FF40.536202.536221451.0458830952800.7747647763811642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 20:00:02FORECAST20253142972.06852.44862.2580000.650.65FF40.068202.068221451.0458830952800.759082963995231642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 16:00:01FORECAST20253142971.97851.8961.9340000.650.65FF39.978201.978221451.0458830952800.756000673928641642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20253142973.14851.7162.4290000.660.66FF41.148203.148221451.0458830952800.794372907462531642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 08:00:02FORECAST20253142973.72452.37663.050001.141.14FF41.724205.724221451.0458830952800.811869995560671642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 04:00:03FORECAST20253142973.63452.5263.0770001.371.37FF41.634205.634221451.0458830952800.809198188916161642215140DRYM
2025-08-06 00:00:02FORECAST20253142972.80653.04262.9240001.021.02FF40.806199.806221451.0458830952800.783542828501411642215140DRYM
2025-08-05 20:00:02FORECAST20253142971.1552.59261.8710001.011.01FF39.15197.15221451.0458830952800.726674307619291642115135DRYL
2025-08-05 16:00:01FORECAST20253142970.5251.49461.0070001.091.09FF38.52196.52221451.0458830952800.703250104869161642115135DRYL
2025-08-05 12:00:02FORECAST20253142971.13251.40461.2680000.940.94FF39.132195.132221451.0458830952800.726017939184961642115135DRYL
2025-08-05 08:00:02FORECAST20253142971.04250.9961.0160000.860.86FF39.042193.042221451.0458830952800.722724472747031642115135DRYL
2025-08-05 04:00:03FORECAST20253142970.32250.84660.5840000.830.83FF38.322195.322221451.0458830952800.69570306636521632115130DRYL
2025-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20253142971.0651.42261.2410000.840.84FF39.06204.06221451.0458830952800.723384710461221642215140DRYM
2025-08-04 20:00:02FORECAST20253142970.39452.23261.3130000.780.78FF38.394203.394221451.0458830952800.69845732491951632215135DRYL
2025-08-04 16:00:02FORECAST20253142968.59450.5459.5670000.610.61FF36.594205.594221451.0458830952800.626575628954711632215135DRYL
2025-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20253142967.98249.80258.8920000.390.39FF35.982205.982221451.0458830952800.600932200127751632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20253142966.8349.29858.0640000.350.35FF34.83206.83221451.0458830952800.551548601210911632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-04 04:00:03FORECAST20253142966.36248.4757.4160000.190.19FF34.362209.362221451.0458830952800.531210032373721632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-04 00:00:02FORECAST20253142965.91249.76657.8390000.360.36FF33.912207.912221451.0458830952800.511575936380881632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20253142967.65849.15458.4060000.330.33FF35.658208.658221451.0458830952800.587169908569931632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20253142968.59448.05658.3250000.270.27FF36.594206.594221451.0458830952800.626575628954711632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20253142967.17248.88458.028000.050.190.24FF35.172203.172221451.0458830952800.566329234874411632215217.5DRYL
2025-08-03 08:00:02FORECAST20253142970.05248.5659.306000.060.230.29FF38.052210.052221451.0458830952800.68527646102541632215135DRYL
2025-08-03 04:00:05FORECAST20253142970.9750.12660.548000.060.260.32FF38.97212.97221451.0458830952800.720075849632741642215140DRYM
2025-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20253142973.27450.1861.727000.010.340.35FF41.274208.274221451.0458830952800.798280578214941642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20253142973.27451.2662.267000.010.340.35FF41.274211.274221451.0458830952800.798280578214941642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 16:00:02FORECAST20253142973.54451.862.672000.010.310.32FF41.544214.544221451.0458830952800.806503277699581642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20253142974.42652.64663.5360000.260.26FF42.426222.426221451.0458830952800.831911501901231642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20253142974.42652.64663.5360000.250.25FF42.426224.426221451.0458830952800.831911501901231642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 04:00:04FORECAST20253142974.5752.82663.6980000.220.22FF42.57225.57221451.0458830952800.835846650353621642215140DRYM
2025-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20253142972.62652.68262.6540000.150.15FF40.626221.626221451.0458830952800.777712933994281642215140DRYM
2025-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20253142972.12253.18662.6540000.150.15FF40.122219.122221451.0458830952800.76092213854891642215140DRYM
2025-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20253142971.83452.59262.2130000.20.2FF39.834210.834221451.0458830952800.751025154251611642215140DRYM
2025-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20253142980.34855.7668.054000.010.220.23FF48.348226.348221451.0458830952800.946475903074711652215145DRYM
2025-08-01 08:00:03FORECAST20253142979.98855.79667.892000.010.230.24FF47.988225.988221451.0458830952800.942029759810531652215145DRYM
2025-08-01 04:00:05FORECAST20253142971.38449.20860.2960000.280.28FF39.384225.384221451.0458830952800.735135650695951642215140DRYM
2025-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20253142957.45248.70453.0780000.520.52FF25.452207.452221451.0458830952800.184658633702921612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 20:00:03FORECAST20253142957.77648.70453.240000.570.57FF25.776209.776221451.0458830952800.194275998225341612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 16:00:02FORECAST20253142957.4748.09252.7810000.640.64FF25.47209.47221451.0458830952800.185185055797411612215212.5DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:03FORECAST20253142952.1646.41849.289000.090.270.36FF20.16204.16221451.0458830952800.0696713283620011612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:03FORECAST20253142952.1646.41849.289000.090.360.45FF20.16204.16221451.0458830952800.0696713283620011612225225DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:04FORECAST20253142950.61249.67650.144000.090.210.3FF18.612204.612221451.0458830952800.0496427540399411612225225DRYL