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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 31, 2025

[ Wednesday, July 30, 2025 | Index | Today | Friday, August 1, 2025 ]

DAY 304 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/01/2025 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 64.11°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.68°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.469
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 257

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 211
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 19

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-08-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION20253041964.1100253.2599858.6850000.320.32FF32.11002257.11002211445.35804209427 00.4689633012012516 22215215DRYL
2025-08-01 00:00:01FORECAST20253041960.85451.45856.15600.0149606380.0149606380.320.334960638FF28.854253.854211445.3580420942700.340549956375681622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 12:00:01FORECAST20253041963.87852.10657.99200.0456693160.0456693160.320.365669316FF31.878256.878211445.3580420942700.459532606417461622215215DRYL
2025-07-31 08:00:01FORECAST20253041965.08452.10658.59500.1204725060.1204725060.320.440472506FF33.084258.084211445.3580420942700.50868034003521632225235DRYL
2025-07-31 04:00:02FORECAST20253041965.2151.83658.52300.0228346580.0228346580.320.342834658FF33.21258.21211445.3580420942700.513820445593211632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253041966.30851.24258.77500.0066929170.0066929170.320.326692917FF34.308253.308211445.3580420942700.558423285639891632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 20:00:02FORECAST20253041966.03852.68259.3600.0082677210.0082677210.320.328267721FF34.038255.038211445.3580420942700.547501917147571632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 16:00:01FORECAST20253041966.66853.20459.9360000.320.32FF34.668255.668211445.3580420942700.572914895217391632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253041967.71253.1560.43100.0346456880.0346456880.320.354645688FF35.712256.712211445.3580420942700.61432123996061632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:02FORECAST20253041967.71252.8860.29600.0169291430.0169291430.320.336929143FF35.712257.712211445.3580420942700.61432123996061632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253041967.44252.98860.21500.0173228440.0173228440.320.337322844FF35.442258.442211445.3580420942700.603716634359681632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 00:00:01FORECAST20253041966.25452.57459.41400.0909449310.0909449310.320.410944931FF34.254327.254211445.3580420942700.556242290589951632225235DRYL
2025-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253041965.98452.10659.04500.1354331440.1354331440.320.455433144FF33.984325.984211445.3580420942700.545313053127911632225235DRYL
2025-07-29 16:00:02FORECAST20253041965.60652.86259.23400.0712598810.0712598810.320.391259881FF33.606325.606211445.3580420942700.529956161186491632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253041965.80452.66459.23400.1082677750.1082677750.320.428267775FF33.804325.804211445.3580420942700.538007267767351632225235DRYL
2025-07-29 08:00:02FORECAST20253041965.82253.20459.51300.1834646660.1834646660.320.503464666FF33.822326.822211445.3580420942700.538738464910051632225235DRYL
2025-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253041966.21853.31259.76500.1783465530.1783465530.320.498346553FF34.218327.218211445.3580420942700.554787342801041632225235DRYL
2025-07-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253041965.0352.50258.76600.1437008650.1437008650.320.463700865FF33.03389.03211445.3580420942700.50647694648361632225235DRYL
2025-07-28 20:00:01FORECAST20253041965.49852.41258.95500.0771653960.0771653960.320.397165396FF33.498389.498211445.3580420942700.525559268801891632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253041965.10252.57458.83800.0653543660.0653543660.320.385354366FF33.102389.102211445.3580420942700.509414749017241632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-28 12:00:02FORECAST20253041964.52652.12458.32500.047244120.047244120.320.36724412FF32.526387.526211445.3580420942700.485911416541821622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253041963.10452.41257.75800.0842520140.0842520140.320.404252014FF31.104389.104211445.3580420942700.428266210694711622215215DRYL
2025-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253041963.4152.30457.85700.1618111110.2118111110.320.531811111FF31.41390.41211445.3580420942700.440584771727831622225230DRYL
2025-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253041966.25453.8760.06200.0929134360.1029134360.320.422913436FF34.254451.254211445.3580420942700.556242290589951632325240DRYM
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253041967.9152.80860.35900.0933071370.1033071370.320.423307137FF35.91453.91211445.3580420942700.622044504614111632325240DRYM
2025-07-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253041966.4752.759.58500.0570866450.0670866450.320.387086645FF34.47451.47211445.3580420942700.564955391809291632315220DRYL
2025-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253041966.14652.64659.39600.1610237090.1710237090.320.491023709FF34.146453.146211445.3580420942700.551875251673111632325240DRYM
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253041966.07452.14259.10800.1468504730.1468504730.320.466850473FF34.074451.074211445.3580420942700.548960362449361632325240DRYM
2025-07-27 04:00:04FORECAST20253041966.25451.859.02700.0877953230.0877953230.320.407795323FF34.254451.254211445.3580420942700.556242290589951632315220DRYL
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253041965.17451.858.48700.2039371180.3039371180.320.623937118FF33.174504.174211445.3580420942700.512352040904121632425245DRYM
2025-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253041964.97651.99858.48700.2039371180.3039371180.320.623937118FF32.976503.976211445.3580420942700.504273355303191632425245DRYM
2025-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253041964.43652.10658.27100.1523622870.3023622870.320.622362287FF32.436502.436211445.3580420942700.48224136574621622425240DRYM
2025-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253041964.83251.74658.28900.0291338740.0891338740.320.409133874FF32.832504.832211445.3580420942700.498396657292231622415220DRYL
2025-07-26 08:00:03FORECAST20253041965.42651.31458.3700.0291338740.0891338740.320.409133874FF33.426506.426211445.3580420942700.522626243414811632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253041965.37251.20658.28900.0263779670.1063779670.320.426377967FF33.372508.372211445.3580420942700.520425661053641632425245DRYM
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253041963.73450.2757.00200.0948819410.1248819410.320.444881941FF31.734559.734211445.3580420942700.453690666505471622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253041963.39250.55856.97500.0858268180.1058268180.320.425826818FF31.392560.392211445.3580420942700.439858435834841622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253041964.34651.56657.95600.027559070.047559070.320.36755907FF32.346562.346211445.3580420942700.478572819232691622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253041962.27650.9956.63300.0641732630.0841732630.320.404173263FF30.276562.276211445.3580420942700.395314868863921622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253041962.6952.32257.50600.0641732630.0841732630.320.404173263FF30.69564.69211445.3580420942700.41171271631871622415220DRYL
2025-07-25 04:00:04FORECAST20253041960.99852.14256.5700.090551230.090551230.320.41055123FF28.998562.998211445.3580420942700.34596716911711622425240DRYM
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253041965.96652.2559.10800.0838583130.1238583130.320.443858313FF33.966573.966211445.3580420942700.544583122594641632425245DRYM
2025-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253041965.2151.81858.51400.0838583130.1238583130.320.443858313FF33.21569.21211445.3580420942700.513820445593211632425245DRYM
2025-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253041964.0451.38657.71300.1996064070.2396064070.320.559606407FF32.04569.04211445.3580420942700.466115185694781622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 12:00:03FORECAST20253041961.84451.38656.61500.0877953230.1577953230.320.477795323FF29.844560.844211445.3580420942700.378399882208761622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253041962.31250.07256.19200.0877953230.1677953230.320.487795323FF30.312558.312211445.3580420942700.396733884329981622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253041960.3550.8155.5800.3665356310.4465356310.320.766535631FF28.35560.35211445.3580420942700.321853301134321622425240DRYM
2025-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253041964.2251.29657.75800.082677210.142677210.320.46267721FF32.22569.22211445.3580420942700.473439971838511622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253041965.08450.55857.82100.082677210.142677210.320.46267721FF33.084568.084211445.3580420942700.50868034003521632425245DRYM
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253041963.15850.95457.05600.1586615030.2286615030.320.548661503FF31.158566.158211445.3580420942700.430435355922341622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253041958.26248.61453.43800.3968506080.4268506080.320.746850608FF26.262559.262211445.3580420942700.249475229044821622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20253041958.26248.61453.43800.3925198970.4325198970.320.752519897FF26.262562.262211445.3580420942700.249475229044821622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 04:00:07FORECAST20253041960.31450.37855.34600.4082679370.4482679370.320.768267937FF28.314566.314211445.3580420942700.320534213358691622425240DRYM
2025-07-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253041956.89448.2952.59200.1779528520.4479528520.330.777952852FF24.894556.894211445.3580420942700.207214985697581612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253041956.4847.49851.98900.1716536360.4316536360.330.761653636FF24.48556.48211445.3580420942700.195310714425441612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253041955.20247.06651.13400.1799213570.4499213570.330.779921357FF23.202555.202211445.3580420942700.161257558973881612425235DRYL
2025-07-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253041962.61846.47254.54500.0744094890.1244094890.330.454409489FF30.618558.618211445.3580420942700.408848948214481622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253041962.61846.47254.54500.0696850770.1196850770.340.459685077FF30.618555.618211445.3580420942700.408848948214481622425240DRYM
2025-07-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253041970.75447.87659.31500.0700787780.1200787780.340.460078778FF38.754567.754211445.3580420942700.7263477240020616424251100DRYVH
2025-07-22 00:00:04FORECAST20253041948.4740.22644.348000.30.190.49FF16.47534.47211445.3580420942700.0465394430283021612425235DRYL
2025-07-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253041948.4740.22644.348000.30.310.61FF16.47530.47211445.3580420942700.0465394430283021612425235DRYL
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253041952.59247.04849.82000.320.330.65FF20.592551.592211445.3580420942700.104448657220811612425235DRYL
2025-07-21 12:00:05FORECAST20253041947.69643.59245.644000.050.330.38FF15.696551.696211445.3580420942700.039300265910231612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253041947.69643.59245.644000.050.190.24FF15.696558.696211445.3580420942700.039300265910231612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253041948.8347.10247.966000.040.20.24FF16.83551.83211445.3580420942700.0502519545004491612415217.5DRYL