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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 30, 2025

[ Tuesday, July 29, 2025 | Index | Today | Thursday, July 31, 2025 ]

DAY 303 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/31/2025 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 64.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.784
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 253

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 210
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 444.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 18

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 2
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2025-07-31 04:00:02OBSERVATION20253031872.5199857.1600464.840010000.320.32FF40.51998252.51998210444.77727990492 00.7843775062186416 42215140DRYM
2025-07-31 00:00:01FORECAST20253031866.95651.87259.4140000.320.32FF34.956246.956210444.7772799049200.591269465204211632215217.5DRYL
2025-07-30 12:00:01FORECAST20253031868.57651.9860.2780000.320.32FF36.576248.576210444.7772799049200.652749948959311632215135DRYL
2025-07-30 08:00:01FORECAST20253031870.44851.63861.0430000.320.32FF38.448250.448210444.7772799049200.719008544311681642215140DRYM
2025-07-30 04:00:03FORECAST20253031871.07851.45861.2680000.320.32FF39.078251.078210444.7772799049200.739850310973451642215140DRYM
2025-07-30 00:00:01FORECAST20253031871.94251.42261.6820000.320.32FF39.942320.942210444.7772799049200.767081633202581642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 20:00:02FORECAST20253031871.5152.80862.1590000.320.32FF39.51319.51210444.7772799049200.753667359164311642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 16:00:01FORECAST20253031871.7854.15862.9690000.320.32FF39.78319.78210444.7772799049200.76209931222531642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 12:00:02FORECAST20253031871.58255.0463.3110000.320.32FF39.582319.582210444.7772799049200.75593140165191642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 08:00:01FORECAST20253031871.61855.54463.5810000.320.32FF39.618320.618210444.7772799049200.757059206516241642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 04:00:03FORECAST20253031871.40255.88663.6440000.320.32FF39.402321.402210444.7772799049200.750250329166841642215140DRYM
2025-07-29 00:00:02FORECAST20253031870.35855.23862.7980000.320.32FF38.358384.358210444.7772799049200.71596664753411642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 20:00:01FORECAST20253031870.28654.87862.5820000.320.32FF38.286384.286210444.7772799049200.713521855482711642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 16:00:02FORECAST20253031870.0754.69862.3840000.320.32FF38.07384.07210444.7772799049200.706128253665391642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 12:00:01FORECAST20253031870.46654.60862.5370000.320.32FF38.466383.466210444.7772799049200.719615031382221642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 08:00:01FORECAST20253031870.86255.38263.1220000.320.32FF38.862385.862210444.7772799049200.732795155296111642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 04:00:03FORECAST20253031870.8855.02262.95100.0460630170.0460630170.320.366063017FF38.88386.88210444.7772799049200.733386747753131642215140DRYM
2025-07-28 00:00:02FORECAST20253031871.13254.73462.93300.0094488240.0094488240.320.329448824FF39.132445.132210444.7772799049200.741598996579341642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 20:00:02FORECAST20253031871.22254.55462.88800.0090551230.0090551230.320.329055123FF39.222446.222210444.7772799049200.744499899801441642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 16:00:01FORECAST20253031870.82654.60862.71700.0086614220.0086614220.320.328661422FF38.826444.826210444.7772799049200.73160998869071642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 12:00:02FORECAST20253031870.7955.7663.27500.0035433090.0135433090.320.333543309FF38.79446.79210444.7772799049200.730422187697941642315145DRYM
2025-07-27 08:00:02FORECAST20253031869.49455.65262.5730000.320.32FF37.494445.494210444.7772799049200.685993636330661632315140DRYM
2025-07-27 04:00:03FORECAST20253031869.3555.34662.3480000.320.32FF37.35445.35210444.7772799049200.680869039407411632315140DRYM
2025-07-27 00:00:02FORECAST20253031869.09854.39261.74500.1000000540.1000000540.320.420000054FF37.098499.098210444.7772799049200.671817829048511632425190DRYVH
2025-07-26 20:00:02FORECAST20253031869.72856.31863.02300.1000000540.1000000540.320.420000054FF37.728498.728210444.7772799049200.694244844732911632325180DRYVH
2025-07-26 16:00:02FORECAST20253031869.06255.61662.33900.1429134630.1529134630.320.472913463FF37.062498.062210444.7772799049200.670516368879451632325180DRYVH
2025-07-26 12:00:02FORECAST20253031870.95256.8463.89600.0566929440.0566929440.320.376692944FF38.952499.952210444.7772799049200.735746484699451642415150DRYMH
2025-07-26 08:00:02FORECAST20253031870.26856.78663.52700.0566929440.0566929440.320.376692944FF38.268501.268210444.7772799049200.712909102656851642415150DRYMH
2025-07-26 04:00:03FORECAST20253031871.34856.62463.98600.0842520140.0842520140.320.404252014FF39.348503.348210444.7772799049200.748532436972521642415150DRYMH
2025-07-26 00:00:02FORECAST20253031867.74855.7661.75400.0299212760.0299212760.320.349921276FF35.748555.748210444.7772799049200.621713378029571632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-25 20:00:02FORECAST20253031868.12655.11261.61900.019685050.019685050.320.33968505FF36.126557.126210444.7772799049200.635993821223331632415145DRYM
2025-07-25 16:00:02FORECAST20253031868.82855.59862.21300.019685050.019685050.320.33968505FF36.828557.828210444.7772799049200.66200709823511632415145DRYM
2025-07-25 12:00:02FORECAST20253031870.12454.6862.40200.0232283590.0232283590.320.343228359FF38.124560.124210444.7772799049200.707984902468311642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 08:00:02FORECAST20253031870.41256.0363.22100.0232283590.0232283590.320.343228359FF38.412562.412210444.7772799049200.717793673960141642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 04:00:03FORECAST20253031870.48455.462.94200.0011811030.0011811030.320.321181103FF38.484562.484210444.7772799049200.720220884650661642415150DRYMH
2025-07-25 00:00:02FORECAST20253031870.1655.77862.96900.0330708840.0430708840.320.363070884FF38.16568.16210444.7772799049200.709219629571171642415150DRYMH
2025-07-24 20:00:02FORECAST20253031869.65655.00462.3300.0330708840.0430708840.320.363070884FF37.656563.656210444.7772799049200.691716227026971632415145DRYM
2025-07-24 16:00:03FORECAST20253031869.69255.5862.63600.0263779670.0363779670.320.356377967FF37.692564.692210444.7772799049200.692981682220231632415145DRYM
2025-07-24 12:00:02FORECAST20253031869.20653.38461.29500.074803190.074803190.320.39480319FF37.206559.206210444.7772799049200.675709670855121632415145DRYM
2025-07-24 08:00:02FORECAST20253031867.0152.8859.94500.0751968910.0751968910.320.395196891FF35.01556.01210444.7772799049200.593365067547861632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-24 04:00:04FORECAST20253031867.98253.67260.82700.0751968910.0751968910.320.395196891FF35.982559.982210444.7772799049200.630574653967331632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-24 00:00:02FORECAST20253031868.25254.84261.54700.0633858610.0633858610.320.383385861FF36.252565.252210444.7772799049200.64071343742561632415145DRYM
2025-07-23 20:00:03FORECAST20253031869.83655.07662.45600.0633858610.0633858610.320.383385861FF37.836562.836210444.7772799049200.698020455198921632415145DRYM
2025-07-23 16:00:02FORECAST20253031869.67455.07662.37500.070866180.070866180.320.39086618FF37.674562.674210444.7772799049200.692349240446741632415145DRYM
2025-07-23 12:00:03FORECAST20253031868.93654.66261.79900.0165354420.0265354420.320.346535442FF36.936560.936210444.7772799049200.665945067581261632415145DRYM
2025-07-23 08:00:04FORECAST20253031870.77254.66262.71700.0263779670.0363779670.320.356377967FF38.772563.772210444.7772799049200.729827302277671642415150DRYMH
2025-07-23 04:00:06FORECAST20253031869.09855.07662.08700.0318897810.0418897810.320.361889781FF37.098566.098210444.7772799049200.671817829048511632415145DRYM
2025-07-23 00:00:03FORECAST20253031869.74653.63661.69100.2523623410.2723623410.330.602362341FF37.746559.746210444.7772799049200.694875562437121632425190DRYVH
2025-07-22 20:00:03FORECAST20253031870.68252.80861.74500.2421261150.2621261150.330.592126115FF38.682559.682210444.7772799049200.7268430740360416424251100DRYVH
2025-07-22 16:00:02FORECAST20253031870.71852.57461.64600.2535434440.2735434440.330.603543444FF38.718559.718210444.7772799049200.728038720717516424251100DRYVH
2025-07-22 12:00:03FORECAST20253031867.56851.81859.69300.0535433360.0535433360.330.383543336FF35.568555.568210444.7772799049200.614852916688861632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20253031867.35251.7159.53100.0484252230.0484252230.340.388425223FF35.352553.352210444.7772799049200.606572855384561632415222.5DRYL
2025-07-22 04:00:04FORECAST20253031868.59452.48460.53900.0488189240.0488189240.340.388818924FF36.594556.594210444.7772799049200.653414283572871632415145DRYM
2025-07-22 00:00:04FORECAST20253031862.648.79455.69700.2783466070.2983466070.190.488346607FF30.6545.6210444.7772799049200.418929515360851622425240DRYM
2025-07-21 20:00:03FORECAST20253031861.12448.07454.59900.2791340090.2991340090.310.609134009FF29.124542.124210444.7772799049200.362351262249521622425240DRYM
2025-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20253031869.58449.1959.38700.3047245740.3247245740.330.654724574FF37.584558.584210444.7772799049200.689178487566341632425190DRYVH
2025-07-21 12:00:04FORECAST20253031870.46648.50659.48600.0149606380.0549606380.330.384960638FF38.466564.466210444.7772799049200.719615031382221642415150DRYMH
2025-07-21 08:00:03FORECAST20253031870.46648.43459.4500.0149606380.0549606380.190.244960638FF38.466571.466210444.7772799049200.719615031382221642415150DRYMH
2025-07-21 04:00:04FORECAST20253031870.08847.15658.62200.0149606380.0449606380.20.244960638FF38.088563.088210444.7772799049200.706747742484361642415150DRYMH
2025-07-21 00:00:04FORECAST20253031848.93842.87245.90500.0019685050.0319685050.30.331968505FF16.938543.938210444.7772799049200.0580292711546961612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 20:00:03FORECAST20253031848.93842.87245.90500.0019685050.0319685050.420.451968505FF16.938542.938210444.7772799049200.0580292711546961612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 16:00:04FORECAST20253031849.62246.88648.25400.0019685050.0319685050.420.451968505FF17.622542.622210444.7772799049200.0664249412884331612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 12:00:03FORECAST20253031850.52245.82448.1730000.330.33FF18.522543.522210444.7772799049200.0788628326124671612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 08:00:03FORECAST20253031850.52245.82448.173000.010.310.32FF18.522536.522210444.7772799049200.0788628326124671612415217.5DRYL
2025-07-20 04:00:05FORECAST20253031845.37442.94444.159000.010.460.47FF13.374525.374210444.7772799049200.0268491163802881612415217.5DRYL